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000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 230849
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAIRLY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT. AREA OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTED AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS HINTING AT MID DAY DRYING AS BEST LIFT MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING DROPPING OFF THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ADVANCING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HAVE CAT POPS REACHING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 00Z.  HIGH WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
COAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT YET TO MOVE IN....AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE POPS GO TO
LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER LUL IN PRECIP AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO -1 TO -10 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WILL
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT FOR TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT COLD. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TO START...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
AN EAST COAST LOW THURSDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
MAY BE LIMITED AND HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RETAINED LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH AREAS
IMPACTED DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND REACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS/GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA/ERIE WILL BE THE
FIRST CONCERN. THEN EARLY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING 40 KNOT
GALES...BUT WE VERY WELL MAY SEE 45 KNOT GALES. THE GALE WATCH
CONTINUES. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230849
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAIRLY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT. AREA OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTED AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS HINTING AT MID DAY DRYING AS BEST LIFT MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING DROPPING OFF THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ADVANCING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HAVE CAT POPS REACHING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 00Z.  HIGH WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
COAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT YET TO MOVE IN....AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE POPS GO TO
LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER LUL IN PRECIP AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO -1 TO -10 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WILL
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT FOR TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT COLD. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TO START...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
AN EAST COAST LOW THURSDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
MAY BE LIMITED AND HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RETAINED LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH AREAS
IMPACTED DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND REACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS/GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA/ERIE WILL BE THE
FIRST CONCERN. THEN EARLY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING 40 KNOT
GALES...BUT WE VERY WELL MAY SEE 45 KNOT GALES. THE GALE WATCH
CONTINUES. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230849
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAIRLY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT. AREA OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTED AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS HINTING AT MID DAY DRYING AS BEST LIFT MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING DROPPING OFF THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ADVANCING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HAVE CAT POPS REACHING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 00Z.  HIGH WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
COAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT YET TO MOVE IN....AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE POPS GO TO
LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER LUL IN PRECIP AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO -1 TO -10 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WILL
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT FOR TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT COLD. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TO START...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
AN EAST COAST LOW THURSDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
MAY BE LIMITED AND HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RETAINED LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH AREAS
IMPACTED DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND REACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS/GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA/ERIE WILL BE THE
FIRST CONCERN. THEN EARLY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING 40 KNOT
GALES...BUT WE VERY WELL MAY SEE 45 KNOT GALES. THE GALE WATCH
CONTINUES. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230849
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAIRLY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT. AREA OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTED AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS HINTING AT MID DAY DRYING AS BEST LIFT MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING DROPPING OFF THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ADVANCING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HAVE CAT POPS REACHING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 00Z.  HIGH WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
COAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT YET TO MOVE IN....AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE POPS GO TO
LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER LUL IN PRECIP AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO -1 TO -10 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WILL
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT FOR TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT COLD. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TO START...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
AN EAST COAST LOW THURSDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
MAY BE LIMITED AND HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RETAINED LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH AREAS
IMPACTED DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND REACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS/GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA/ERIE WILL BE THE
FIRST CONCERN. THEN EARLY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING 40 KNOT
GALES...BUT WE VERY WELL MAY SEE 45 KNOT GALES. THE GALE WATCH
CONTINUES. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 230552
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1252 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO MOVING
MORE E THAN NE.  ADDED SMALL SHOWER CHANCE INTERIOR SE OHIO AGAIN
FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1151 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1151 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 230451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1151 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KRLX 230345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO MOVING
MORE E THAN NE.  ADDED SMALL SHOWER CHANCE INTERIOR SE OHIO AGAIN
FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG...CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S AND W...WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY LATE SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT BUT MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SRN SITES.  EXCEPTION IS BKW
WHERE SE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THESE STRONG SE WINDS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR THE IFR THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN...BECOMING GUSTY SRN SITES BUT QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT S SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MODERATE S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 230345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO MOVING
MORE E THAN NE.  ADDED SMALL SHOWER CHANCE INTERIOR SE OHIO AGAIN
FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG...CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S AND W...WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY LATE SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT BUT MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SRN SITES.  EXCEPTION IS BKW
WHERE SE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THESE STRONG SE WINDS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR THE IFR THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN...BECOMING GUSTY SRN SITES BUT QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT S SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MODERATE S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 230331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1031 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KILN 230256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 230256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 230256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 230256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 230254
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASE AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME RECOVER EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS THICKEN AN PERHAPS
A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 230254
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASE AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME RECOVER EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS THICKEN AN PERHAPS
A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230246
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY GET PUSHED
NORTH WITH TIME AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AND PUSHES DRIER AIR
NORTHWARD. THINK THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OVER IL/IN WILL
MAINLY STAY NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. TEMPERATURES
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230246
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY GET PUSHED
NORTH WITH TIME AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AND PUSHES DRIER AIR
NORTHWARD. THINK THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OVER IL/IN WILL
MAINLY STAY NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. TEMPERATURES
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG...CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S AND W...WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY LATE SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT BUT MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SRN SITES.  EXCEPTION IS BKW
WHERE SE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THESE STRONG SE WINDS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR THE IFR THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN...BECOMING GUSTY SRN SITES BUT QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT S SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MODERATE S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KILN 230006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 230006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222242
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222242
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 222113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KILN 222113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KILN 222113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KILN 222113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 222056
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222056
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222056
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222056
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 222052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 222052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KRLX 221924
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

WINDS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER...NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGER
WINDS LIFT NORTH.

THE CONSRAW APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY SO USED IT WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.  LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S BEFORE REACHING THE
HIGH BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221924
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

WINDS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER...NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGER
WINDS LIFT NORTH.

THE CONSRAW APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY SO USED IT WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.  LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S BEFORE REACHING THE
HIGH BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221924
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

WINDS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER...NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGER
WINDS LIFT NORTH.

THE CONSRAW APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY SO USED IT WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.  LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S BEFORE REACHING THE
HIGH BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221924
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

WINDS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER...NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGER
WINDS LIFT NORTH.

THE CONSRAW APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY SO USED IT WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.  LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S BEFORE REACHING THE
HIGH BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
132 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDT TO CANCEL FREEZING RAIN ADVY. STEADY PCPN HAS ENDED WITH JUST
SCT SHWRS RMNG AS A SHRTWV BEGINS TO EXIT. TEMPS WL ALSO CONT TO
RISE THIS AFTN.

ANOTHER WK SHRTWV WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT
FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG
RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITING WITH MIXED FZRA AND RAIN ENDING TOWARD 19Z
ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN GENERAL VFR IN STORE INTO SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
132 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDT TO CANCEL FREEZING RAIN ADVY. STEADY PCPN HAS ENDED WITH JUST
SCT SHWRS RMNG AS A SHRTWV BEGINS TO EXIT. TEMPS WL ALSO CONT TO
RISE THIS AFTN.

ANOTHER WK SHRTWV WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT
FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG
RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITING WITH MIXED FZRA AND RAIN ENDING TOWARD 19Z
ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN GENERAL VFR IN STORE INTO SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KCLE 221819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A FEW VALLEYS IN EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SOON. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 221819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A FEW VALLEYS IN EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SOON. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT BREEZY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD
DEAL...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NAM
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A BRIEF DROP INTO MVFR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IN
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
30-40KTS LATER SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT BREEZY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD
DEAL...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NAM
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A BRIEF DROP INTO MVFR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IN
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
30-40KTS LATER SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 221721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221706
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WL CONT TO TAPER OFF FM W-E INTO
ERLY AFTN AS A SHRTWV BEGINS TO EXIT THE RGN. LET THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVY EXPIRE AT NOON WITH RAIN ENDING AND TEMPS INCRG AS SOME
LTD MXG BEGINS...THOUGH ICY SPOTS WL BE PSBL ON UNTREATED SFCS FOR
A COUPLE HRS. CONTD THE ADVY I 80 AND N THRU 2 PM WITH A STG TEMP
INVERSION AT THE SFC.

ANOTHER WK SHRTWV WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT
FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG
RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITING WITH MIXED FZRA AND RAIN ENDING TOWARD 19Z
ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN GENERAL VFR IN STORE INTO SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221706
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WL CONT TO TAPER OFF FM W-E INTO
ERLY AFTN AS A SHRTWV BEGINS TO EXIT THE RGN. LET THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVY EXPIRE AT NOON WITH RAIN ENDING AND TEMPS INCRG AS SOME
LTD MXG BEGINS...THOUGH ICY SPOTS WL BE PSBL ON UNTREATED SFCS FOR
A COUPLE HRS. CONTD THE ADVY I 80 AND N THRU 2 PM WITH A STG TEMP
INVERSION AT THE SFC.

ANOTHER WK SHRTWV WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT
FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG
RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITING WITH MIXED FZRA AND RAIN ENDING TOWARD 19Z
ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN GENERAL VFR IN STORE INTO SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KILN 221609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 221609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221550
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MRNG UPDT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FREEZING
RAIN ADVY ANOTHER HOUR FOR PTNS OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE NR
FREEZING. PREVIOUS DISC...A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD
TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG
SFC INVERSION WL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA. ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL
CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL
EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT.
BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC
POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ040-041-049-
     050-059-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ001>004.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221550
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MRNG UPDT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FREEZING
RAIN ADVY ANOTHER HOUR FOR PTNS OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE NR
FREEZING. PREVIOUS DISC...A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD
TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG
SFC INVERSION WL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA. ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL
CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL
EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT.
BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC
POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ040-041-049-
     050-059-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ001>004.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221550
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MRNG UPDT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FREEZING
RAIN ADVY ANOTHER HOUR FOR PTNS OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE NR
FREEZING. PREVIOUS DISC...A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD
TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG
SFC INVERSION WL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA. ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL
CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL
EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT.
BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC
POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ040-041-049-
     050-059-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ001>004.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221550
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MRNG UPDT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FREEZING
RAIN ADVY ANOTHER HOUR FOR PTNS OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE NR
FREEZING. PREVIOUS DISC...A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD
TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG
SFC INVERSION WL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA. ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL
CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL
EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT.
BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC
POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ040-041-049-
     050-059-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ001>004.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 221539
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1039 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO TO THREE HOUR WINDOW FIRST THING THIS MORNING OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THOUGH AND BY
MID MORNING WEST/LATE MORNING EAST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE. DROP
THE MENTION AS SOON AS SURFACE WINDS START TO GUST. MAY NEED LLWS
MENTION AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE EXITS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z SUN WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
VSBYS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS JUST YET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLE BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED NON VFR
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ012-013-022-
     023-033-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-
     011-020-021-031-032-038.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 221539
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1039 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. THE RAIN
WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS/WET
BULB COME UP...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NW OHIO BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COMING UP VERY QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO TO THREE HOUR WINDOW FIRST THING THIS MORNING OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THOUGH AND BY
MID MORNING WEST/LATE MORNING EAST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE. DROP
THE MENTION AS SOON AS SURFACE WINDS START TO GUST. MAY NEED LLWS
MENTION AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE EXITS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z SUN WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
VSBYS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS JUST YET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLE BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED NON VFR
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ012-013-022-
     023-033-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-
     011-020-021-031-032-038.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221336
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE
RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG SFC INVERSION WL RESULT
IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA.
ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY
AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL
QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH
ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR
PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG
RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-020-021-029.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ001>004.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221336
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE
RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG SFC INVERSION WL RESULT
IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA.
ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY
AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL
QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH
ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR
PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG
RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-020-021-029.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ001>004.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 221328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KILN 221149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS.


EARLIER DISCUSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS.


EARLIER DISCUSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 221148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED PERRY COUNTY UNDER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED PERRY COUNTY UNDER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KCLE 221126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWPOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO TO THREE HOUR WINDOW FIRST THING THIS MORNING OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THOUGH AND BY
MID MORNING WEST/LATE MORNING EAST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE. DROP
THE MENTION AS SOON AS SURFACE WINDS START TO GUST. MAY NEED LLWS
MENTION AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE EXITS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z SUN WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
VSBYS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS JUST YET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLE BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED NON VFR
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 221122
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS.


EARLIER DISCUSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221117
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RESULT IN CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. A CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED
MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS
DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER
SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN.

A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER
THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS
COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT
RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED
SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND
IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A
TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL.

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-020-021-029.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ001>004.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221117
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RESULT IN CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. A CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED
MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS
DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER
SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN.

A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER
THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS
COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT
RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED
SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND
IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A
TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL.

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-
MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE
NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS
THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN
RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-020-021-029.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ001>004.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RESULT IN CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. A CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED
MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS
DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER
SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN.

A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER
THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS
COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT
RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED
SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND
IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A
TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL.

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER SOUTH BUT
BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN
TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-020-021-029.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ001>004.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RESULT IN CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. A CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED
MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS
DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER
SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN.

A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER
THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS
COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT
RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED
SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND
IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A
TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL.

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS
BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER SOUTH BUT
BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN
TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-020-021-029.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ001>004.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FADE THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE RETURNS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED
MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS
DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER
SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN.

A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER
THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS
COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT
RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED
SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND
IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A
TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL.

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER SOUTH BUT
BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN
TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FADE THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE RETURNS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED
MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS
DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER
SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN.

A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER
THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS
COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT
RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED
SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND
IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A
TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL.

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER SOUTH BUT
BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN
TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KCLE 220829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO 10...AM
THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST AND MAY RISE
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ZR CENTRAL AND
EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL BUT
FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO 10...AM
THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST AND MAY RISE
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ZR CENTRAL AND
EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL BUT
FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO 10...AM
THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST AND MAY RISE
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ZR CENTRAL AND
EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL BUT
FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO 10...AM
THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST AND MAY RISE
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ZR CENTRAL AND
EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL BUT
FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 220549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE
OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO
OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE
AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1245 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO FADE THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT REALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT...AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
DEEPER SATURATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IT IS ONLY IN THE
LATTER AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THAT CORRIDOR
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-MORNING.

AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER SOUTH BUT
BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN
TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL
BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KCLE 220445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT REALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT...AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
DEEPER SATURATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IT IS ONLY IN THE
LATTER AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THAT CORRIDOR
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT REALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT...AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
DEEPER SATURATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IT IS ONLY IN THE
LATTER AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THAT CORRIDOR
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT REALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT...AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
DEEPER SATURATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IT IS ONLY IN THE
LATTER AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THAT CORRIDOR
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT REALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT...AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
DEEPER SATURATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IT IS ONLY IN THE
LATTER AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THAT CORRIDOR
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 220235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KILN 220226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE
OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO
OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE
AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 220226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE
OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO
OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE
AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN FREE FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SWAY FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL
BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR AVIATION PERIOD EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT WILL
BRING SOME ALTOCU AND STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY TO NRN SITES
PKB-CKB-EKN.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

LIGHT...NEARLY CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT S ON SAT.
LIGHT NW NW FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO LIGHT SW OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MODERATE SW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAINS SO ON SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER
THE REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER
THE REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER
THE REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER
THE REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE. WARM ADVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. NOT INCLUDED YET BUT LLWS IS A
POSSIBILITY AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP.  AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION
ABOVE...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HANDLING VIA PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ZZV/FKL/DUJ. CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER
SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO
PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. CL

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 212336
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 212336
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212322
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER
THE REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212322
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...FREEZING RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO
DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BARELY A SOUTHERLY DRIFT. DEWPOINTS OVER
THE REGION ARE LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WHILE A BIT MORE
MOIST AIR IS POISED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION GOING TOWARD
SUNRISE...THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO DECREASE THE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...TEENS SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE SCATTERED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW
COVER. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE
LAYER GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 MB IN A CORRIDOR FROM
ZANESVILLE TO BEAVER TO DUBOIS AND NORTHWARD GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS TO SATURATE SUFFICIENT. WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LIFTED LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT INTO THE +2 TO +5C RANGE OVER A DEPTH OF ABOUT 5 KFT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL FALLING HYDROMETEORS AS THEY
FALL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD START TO THE DAY AND WEAK SURFACE
LAYER ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...ALONG WITH THE RECENT VERY
COLD WEATHER...FROZEN GROUND...AND SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT DOES SEEM THAT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM ZANESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER RESTRICTED
UPWARD MOBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS AND A COLD
START MEAN SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT LIFT AND
SATURATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHATSOEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 60 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THE
MOMENT TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO OUTLINE THE
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME ICING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES ENOUGH
THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION BY THAT JUNCTURE SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 212301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 212301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 212127
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 212127
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212058
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212058
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PART OF THE SNOW BELT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN
SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO NW OH AFTER
09Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT FIRST BUT WARM QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP IS TOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT SO ANOTHER SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SE BY LATE SUN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLDS AND FLURRIES CONT TO ERODE AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES...OTRW EXP MCLR SKIES TNGT. WRM ADVCTN ABV THE SFC SHOULD
HELP SOMEWHAT LMT THE TEMP DROP TNGT...THOUGH IT WL STILL BE WELL
BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLDS AND FLURRIES CONT TO ERODE AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES...OTRW EXP MCLR SKIES TNGT. WRM ADVCTN ABV THE SFC SHOULD
HELP SOMEWHAT LMT THE TEMP DROP TNGT...THOUGH IT WL STILL BE WELL
BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLDS AND FLURRIES CONT TO ERODE AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES...OTRW EXP MCLR SKIES TNGT. WRM ADVCTN ABV THE SFC SHOULD
HELP SOMEWHAT LMT THE TEMP DROP TNGT...THOUGH IT WL STILL BE WELL
BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLDS AND FLURRIES CONT TO ERODE AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES...OTRW EXP MCLR SKIES TNGT. WRM ADVCTN ABV THE SFC SHOULD
HELP SOMEWHAT LMT THE TEMP DROP TNGT...THOUGH IT WL STILL BE WELL
BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE
WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS
RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS
TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD
MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO
SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KILN 211801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 211801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 211801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 211801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLOW IS BECOMING WEST SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
ITS ORIENTATION TO WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DECREASING
AS DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORKS IN. AT MOST AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNOWBELT. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS UP BASED ON NOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLOW IS BECOMING WEST SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
ITS ORIENTATION TO WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DECREASING
AS DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORKS IN. AT MOST AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNOWBELT. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS UP BASED ON NOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 211703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1203 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 211703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1203 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY EVENING
AS WEST WINDS TURN SW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
NIGHT BUT TOL AND FDY COULD BEGIN TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 12Z AS PRECIP MAY ARRIVE BY THEN.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING QUICK ENOUGH SAT MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURRING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. BY THE END OF MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE TO END THE THREAT FOR FZRA. MVFR
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD GET IN THE FZRA/RA THRUT THE
DAY SAT.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211600
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211600
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211459
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211459
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KILN 211442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX CU
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTH AS THE HIGH CROSSES SOUTHERN OHIO. CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. 3 TO 4KFT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME A BKN DECK TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND FLOW TURNS SW AND INTO AN INCREASED SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
MODELS WERE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE 6-12Z TIME
FRAME TOMORROW AND GFS WAS A LITTLE EXUBERANT. THE WARM SECTOR
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IN THIS PATTERN ARE USUALLY FLEETING AND
SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR ZR/ZL...I DID
MENTION THIS AT KDAY AND KILN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL LIKELY BE WARMER DUE TO ADVECTION EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE LOW CHANCE BUT STILL POTENTIAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED...BROUGHT IN A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT 3KFT BRIEFLY
LATE IN THE TAF FCST FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 211442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX CU
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTH AS THE HIGH CROSSES SOUTHERN OHIO. CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. 3 TO 4KFT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME A BKN DECK TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND FLOW TURNS SW AND INTO AN INCREASED SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
MODELS WERE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE 6-12Z TIME
FRAME TOMORROW AND GFS WAS A LITTLE EXUBERANT. THE WARM SECTOR
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IN THIS PATTERN ARE USUALLY FLEETING AND
SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR ZR/ZL...I DID
MENTION THIS AT KDAY AND KILN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL LIKELY BE WARMER DUE TO ADVECTION EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE LOW CHANCE BUT STILL POTENTIAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED...BROUGHT IN A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT 3KFT BRIEFLY
LATE IN THE TAF FCST FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 211442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX CU
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTH AS THE HIGH CROSSES SOUTHERN OHIO. CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. 3 TO 4KFT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME A BKN DECK TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND FLOW TURNS SW AND INTO AN INCREASED SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
MODELS WERE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE 6-12Z TIME
FRAME TOMORROW AND GFS WAS A LITTLE EXUBERANT. THE WARM SECTOR
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IN THIS PATTERN ARE USUALLY FLEETING AND
SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR ZR/ZL...I DID
MENTION THIS AT KDAY AND KILN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL LIKELY BE WARMER DUE TO ADVECTION EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE LOW CHANCE BUT STILL POTENTIAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED...BROUGHT IN A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT 3KFT BRIEFLY
LATE IN THE TAF FCST FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 211442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX CU
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTH AS THE HIGH CROSSES SOUTHERN OHIO. CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. 3 TO 4KFT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME A BKN DECK TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND FLOW TURNS SW AND INTO AN INCREASED SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
MODELS WERE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE 6-12Z TIME
FRAME TOMORROW AND GFS WAS A LITTLE EXUBERANT. THE WARM SECTOR
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IN THIS PATTERN ARE USUALLY FLEETING AND
SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR ZR/ZL...I DID
MENTION THIS AT KDAY AND KILN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL LIKELY BE WARMER DUE TO ADVECTION EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE LOW CHANCE BUT STILL POTENTIAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED...BROUGHT IN A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT 3KFT BRIEFLY
LATE IN THE TAF FCST FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH A SUNDAY EVENING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. A FEW SNW SHWRS
OFF THE LK N OF PIT WL DCRS AS WELL...THOUGH CU RULE INDICATES COLD
AIR CU/SC IS EXPD TO REDEVELOP THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WL RMN SVRL DEG
BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH A SUNDAY EVENING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. A FEW SNW SHWRS
OFF THE LK N OF PIT WL DCRS AS WELL...THOUGH CU RULE INDICATES COLD
AIR CU/SC IS EXPD TO REDEVELOP THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WL RMN SVRL DEG
BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVEN