[top]
000
FXUS61 KILN 210828
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS A RAGGED MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE ITS WAY INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS...INCLUDING CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...FORECAST A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TO THE EAST.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...WITH MUCH MORE
INHIBITION (UP TO 100-150 J/KG) THAN WHEN IT WAS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION OVER THE ILN CWA.
HOWEVER...AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY. THERE IS SOME
SHEAR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS (30-40 KNOTS FROM 0-1KM...WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE). WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH...AND WINDS AT 925MB ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND UP
TO 40 KNOTS. THIS HAS LED TO SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF STRONGER
WINDS ON THE LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED OVER THE ILN CWA...GIVEN THE MORE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING
APPEARS LOW...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST CHALLENGE
IS A NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF PROPER MODELING OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST...THOUGH IT
IS A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND. THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
FEATURES PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY) DOES NOT APPEAR RELIABLE. WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS...AND THESE FEATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MORNING CONVECTION (PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW / CLOUD
DEBRIS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION).
IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500-2500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. STILL A WAYS REMOVED FROM THE
BRUNT OF THE JET...THE ILN CWA WILL NOT GET INTO A GREAT DEAL OF
WIND SHEAR TODAY...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE DEEP LAYER AND
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SURFACE BASED AND UNCAPPED (RAP13 FORECASTS SHOW A 3 DEG C DROP IN
700MB TEMPS BY AFTERNOON)...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT. THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND
ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY END UP LEAVING A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDENT ON THE
ABOVE FACTORS...THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RAW MODEL TEMPS
ARE IN WIDE VARIANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH INTENSE HEATING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION FORCES DROPS IN THE SURFACE TEMP FIELDS (AND
AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND PLACES). WHILE A GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS
USED...IN THE INTEREST OF BEING A BIT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE FORECAST...THE MAX TEMPS WERE KNOCKED DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS...WITH A DIURNAL
MIN LEADING TO MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY
JUST EAST OF THE ILN CWA BY MORNING...WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SPREADING INTO INDIANA BY THEN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO MICHIGAN...WITH GENERAL SURFACE
TROUGHING AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE ILN CWA. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT...AND SHOULD SUPPORT A LIKELY POP
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASED BIT OF SHEAR AND FORCING (RESPECTIVELY).
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
INSTABILITY...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG (AND
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE LACK OF EXPECTED SURFACE
HEATING). TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP...WHICH SHOULD HELP
GENERATE 500-1000 J/KG IF SOME SUN CAN BE REALIZED. AN ALTERNATE
POSSIBILITY WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION
TO NEAR-ZERO. THE SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER MOIST...LEADING TO THIN
CAPE AND LOW LCLS.
IT IS AN INTERESTING CONTRAST IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TODAY
(TUESDAY)...WITH DIFFERENT ELEMENTS OF THE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
APPEARING FAVORABLE ON EITHER DAY.
THE LARGE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE ILN CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE OF POPS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND
GENERALLY WITH DIURNAL TIMING. BEHIND THE AXIS OF THIS
TROUGH...RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER THE POORLY-DEFINED
COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW) MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. A STRONGER CHANGE IN NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALOFT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING
TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGION
WILL BE LOCATED IN A WARM...MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT.
FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE QLCS TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN
INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE TO
THE POINT THAT IT IS GONE BY THE TIME IT GETS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. OTHER MODELS TRY TO HOLD IT TOGETHER
INTO OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BEFORE COMPLETELY WEAKENING IT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT PLACED ANY CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AND WILL MONITOR
LINE/TRENDS AND UPDATE/AMEND ACCORDINGLY IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...THE TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY IS FAIRLY MURKY AS
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING MESOSCALE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WELL. KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A
LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A
MORE BONAFIDE DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...BUT EXACT TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210823
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TODAY...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO BE QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS OVER THE MIDWEST.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES (CAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG)...AND A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS THE FIRST REAL
TRIGGER SINCE LAST WEEK. THE FRONT ITSELF IS WEAK...ONLY
NOTICEABLE BY A SURFACE WIND SHIFT. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH A SMALL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW AND MID
LEVEL FORCING INCREASING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF WE CAN REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP...IN THE MID
80S...NOT MUCH TO STOP THE PARCELS FROM RISING. THAT MAY BE THE
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION...WHETHER WE CAN REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP. WITH FULL SUN...HAVE NO DOUBT WE WOULD GO ABOVE THE MID
80S...HOWEVER CONCERNED ABOUT THE CIRRUS BLOW-OFF...FROM PREVIOUS
MIDWEST CONVECTION...THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NEGATE JUST ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
KEEP OUR TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS LATER TODAY...DOING SO WITH UNCERTAINTY ON IF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE A LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER EC OHIO AND NW PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND BARRELS THROUGH...REACHING THE SE MTS BY EVE.
THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KTS...HOWEVER...WITH WBZ LEVELS RANGING FROM 9500-11000 HAIL
WOULD BE A GOOD BET.
SO IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
WILL INCLUDE THE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR HIGHS TODAY...WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE LATEST LAMP AS THOSE
NUMBERS HAVE WORKED WELL THAT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...WAVES OF ENERGY...BREAKING AWAY FROM THE MAIN MIDWEST
SYSTEM...WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
NORTHERN PA. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SCHC
IN THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES OVERNIGHT AND ANY NOTICEABLE
FORCING IS SPARSE.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET GOING AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM CREEPS EVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE
WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. WIND FIELD ALOFT STRENGTHENS
PULLING MORE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS WED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR WED...SO WILL INCLUDE WORDING OF POSSIBLE SEVERE AND
MENTION IN HWO.
SLOW MOVING FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS. THURSDAYS NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY...SO AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION STILL IN
QUESTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN YESTERDAY. FOR NOW WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FROM KPIT NORTH AND WEST IN TERMINALS. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG TO INCLUDE IN
30 HOUR PIT TAF...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THIS FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KCLE 210812
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
412 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING AS IT WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AM. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN THIN. WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH...WITH THE MOISTURE BETWEEN 1000 AND 700 MB NOT THAT HIGH.
WITH SOME MORNING CLOUDS THE CAPES MAY NOT GET THAT HIGH. WE DO
HAVE A TRIGGER... A SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE OR APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. FORECASTED LIKELY WEST AND
SCATTERED EAST. WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...EXCEPTING SOME SUN. IT WILL BE HUMID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND THEN
THE AREA SHOULD BE IN A LULL FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AND THEN WAITING
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS. IF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY OR IF WE HAVE A LOT OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGHS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. GFS CONTINUES WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND IS THUS WETTER AND COOLER. SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION IGNORED THE ECMWF AND WENT WITH THE
GFS FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS TAFS. AGAIN EXPECT SOME MVFR BR TOWARD
DAYBREAK...COULD SEE SOME IFR OR MVFR STRATUS AS WELL EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
EXACTLY WHEN OR WHERE. FOR NOW LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR AFTERNOON TSRA.
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER US UNTIL THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT
THAT WITH CAPES OF ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN COLDER AIR. THE 850MB
TEMPS DIP TO 2C BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL NEED TO REMAIN
ALERT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210744
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
344 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KILN 210718
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
318 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS A RAGGED MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IS
NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA. ALL MODELS...INCLUDING CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...FORECAST
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TO THE
EAST. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAR-SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC
AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVER INDIANA...WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE...AND ELEVATED CAPE OF
AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ABOVE IT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE SUSTAINING OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH MUCH
MORE INHIBITION (UP TO 100-150 J/KG) AND A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION
OVER THE ILN CWA. HOWEVER...AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS (30-40
KNOTS FROM 0-1KM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE). WINDS AHEAD OF
THE LINE ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND WINDS AT 925MB ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND UP TO 40 KNOTS. THIS HAS LED TO SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS ON THE LINE...AND EVEN A FEW
WEAK CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED OVER THE ILN CWA...GIVEN THE MORE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING
APPEARS LOW...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS >
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD IS FOR A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO GET SHEARED INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WOULD BE A PORTION OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WORKED OVER. THEREFORE
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEING INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
AND SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
OCCURRED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...UP
TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NEARER
TO OUR AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY....WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY THERE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO COMBINE WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS GET
ORGANIZED.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE BEST FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EXPECT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN
IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITIES...WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHWEST TO LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGION
WILL BE LOCATED IN A WARM...MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT.
FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE QLCS TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN
INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE TO
THE POINT THAT IT IS GONE BY THE TIME IT GETS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. OTHER MODELS TRY TO HOLD IT TOGETHER
INTO OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BEFORE COMPLETELY WEAKENING IT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT PLACED ANY CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AND WILL MONITOR
LINE/TRENDS AND UPDATE/AMEND ACCORDINGLY IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...THE TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY IS FAIRLY MURKY AS
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING MESOSCALE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WELL. KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A
LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A
MORE BONAFIDE DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...BUT EXACT TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210718
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TODAY...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. LARGE
AREA OF ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER AREA SWINGING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA.
EXPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO BE QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS OF THE LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES (CAPES OF 3000-3500
J/KG)...AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS THE
FIRST REAL TRIGGER SINCE LAST WEEK. THE FRONT ITSELF IS WEAK...
ONLY NOTICEABLE BY A SURFACE WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW AND MID LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND IF WE CAN REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP...IN THE MID
80S...NOT MUCH TO STOP THE PARCELS FROM RISING. THAT MAY BE THE
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION...WHETHER WE CAN REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP. WITH FULL SUN...HAVE NO DOUBT WE WOULD GO ABOVE THE MID
80S...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE CIRRUS BLOW-OFF...FROM MIDWEST
CONVECTION...THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NEGATE JUST ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO KEEP
OUR TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS
LATER TODAY...DOING SO WITH UNCERTAINTY ON IF WE CAN GET MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE A
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER EC OHIO AND NW PA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BARRELS THROUGH...REACHING THE SE MTS BY EVE.
THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KTS...HOWEVER...WITH WBZ LEVELS RANGING FROM 9500-11000 HAIL
WOULD BE A GOOD BET.
SO IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
FOR HIGHS TODAY...WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE LATEST LAMP AS THOSE
NUMBERS HAVE WORKED WELL THAT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...WAVES OF ENERGY...BREAKING AWAY FROM THE MAIN MIDWEST
SYSTEM...WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
NORTHERN PA. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SCHC
IN THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES OVERNIGHT AND ANY NOTICEABLE
FORCING IS SPARSE.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET GOING AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM CREEPS EVERY CLOSER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE
WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. WIND FIELD ALOFT STRENGTHENS
PULLING MORE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS WED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.
SLOW MOVING FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION STILL
IN QUESTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN YESTERDAY. FOR NOW WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FROM KPIT NORTH AND WEST IN TERMINALS. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG TO INCLUDE IN
30 HOUR PIT TAF...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THIS FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210714
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210541
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND OVER TYGART RIVER AND KANAWHA RIVER
VALLEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS CURVE. REMOVED ALL PCPN
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING NO DISTURBANCES AT H5 WITHIN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...OH...WV...AND PA. FOR
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AT
THIS POINT. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AS THE S/W
TROUGH AND ASSOC VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S PRECIP CONTINUES
EAST AS WELL. LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST LLVL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST.
WILL HOWEVER GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OUT HERE WITH JUST A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL NOTED ON POINT
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY/S S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX CONTINUE
EASTWARD. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BTWN
00Z-03Z TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 2-3KFT LAYER OF CONVECTIVE MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES CENTERED AROUND 850MB AND AROUND 12Z
TUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY 850MB CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE I-79 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AND THUS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER WITH
THIS FEATURE. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER MOST LOCATION DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SE OHIO ZONES BY AND AFTER 21Z AS
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED SAME
AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK AND THUS ORGANIZATION WILL BE AS WELL WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KILN 210535
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OHIO KEPT THE REGION DRY TODAY. ILN/S 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWED INSTBY AROUND 2100 J/KG BUT ALSO A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAP AROUND 800 MB. WITH A LAKE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING...THIS
CAP COULD NOT BE OVERCOME TO TAP INTO THIS INSTBY AND PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME
THIN HI LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THRU.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FLOW BACKING. LOW LEVEL JET HAS INITIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST OVER THE MID MS VLY. AS THIS JET SHIFTS NE THE CONVECTION WILL
HEAD EAST TO NE. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE EXPECT
THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING A LTL SLOWER WITH THESE STORMS INTO THE
NW AND FOLLOWED PREV FCST TRENDS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM AS THEY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD IS FOR A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO GET SHEARED INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WOULD BE A PORTION OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WORKED OVER. THEREFORE
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEING INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
AND SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
OCCURRED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...UP
TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NEARER
TO OUR AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY....WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY THERE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO COMBINE WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS GET
ORGANIZED.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE BEST FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EXPECT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN
IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITIES...WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHWEST TO LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGION
WILL BE LOCATED IN A WARM...MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT.
FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE QLCS TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN
INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE TO
THE POINT THAT IT IS GONE BY THE TIME IT GETS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. OTHER MODELS TRY TO HOLD IT TOGETHER
INTO OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BEFORE COMPLETELY WEAKENING IT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT PLACED ANY CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AND WILL MONITOR
LINE/TRENDS AND UPDATE/AMEND ACCORDINGLY IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...THE TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY IS FAIRLY MURKY AS
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING MESOSCALE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WELL. KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A
LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A
MORE BONAFIDE DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...BUT EXACT TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 210523
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS EXPECT OVER THE LAKE EAST OF
CLEVELAND. MADE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 8 AM. ADJUSTED SOME OF
THE LOWS A LITTLE.
EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS TO WEAKEN AS
THEY HEAD TOWARD NORTHWEST OHIO...BUT THAT WON`T BE UNTIL WELL
AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS TAFS. AGAIN EXPECT SOME MVFR BR TOWARD
DAYBREAK...COULD SEE SOME IFR OR MVFR STRATUS AS WELL EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
EXACTLY WHEN OR WHERE. FOR NOW LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR AFTERNOON TSRA.
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER US UNTIL THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT
THAT WITH CAPES OF ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210515 AAC
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TODAY...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. LARGE
AREA OF ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER AREA SWINGING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA.
EXPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO BE QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS OF THE LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES (CAPES OF 3000-3500
J/KG)...AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS THE
FIRST REAL TRIGGER SINCE LAST WEEK. THE FRONT ITSELF IS WEAK...
ONLY NOTICEABLE BY A SURFACE WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW AND MID LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND IF WE CAN REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP...IN THE MID
80S...NOT MUCH TO STOP THE PARCELS FROM RISING. THAT MAY BE THE
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION...WHETHER WE CAN REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP. WITH FULL SUN...HAVE NO DOUBT WE WOULD GO ABOVE THE MID
80S...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE CIRRUS BLOW-OFF...FROM MIDWEST
CONVECTION...THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NEGATE JUST ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO KEEP
OUR TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS
LATER TODAY...DOING SO WITH UNCERTAINTY ON IF WE CAN GET MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE A
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER EC OHIO AND NW PA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BARRELS THROUGH...REACHING THE SE MTS BY EVE.
THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KTS...HOWEVER...WITH WBZ LEVELS RANGING FROM 9500-11000 HAIL
WOULD BE A GOOD BET.
SO IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
FOR HIGHS TODAY...WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE LATEST LAMP AS THOSE
NUMBERS HAVE WORKED WELL THAT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...WAVES OF ENERGY...BREAKING AWAY FROM THE MAIN MIDWEST
SYSTEM...WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
NORTHERN PA. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SCHC
IN THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES OVERNIGHT AND ANY NOTICEABLE
FORCING IS SPARSE.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET GOING AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM CREEPS EVERY CLOSER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE
WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. WIND FIELD ALOFT STRENGTHENS
PULLING MORE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS WED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.
SLOW MOVING FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION STILL
IN QUESTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING AS HEAT OF THE DAY HAS PASSED. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH THE
SAME SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AFTER 21Z.
FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCTS FROM KPIT NORTH AND WEST IN TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 210434
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1234 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS EXPECT OVER THE LAKE EAST OF
CLEVELAND. MADE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 8 AM. ADJUSTED SOME OF
THE LOWS A LITTLE.
EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS TO WEAKEN AS
THEY HEAD TOWARD NORTHWEST OHIO...BUT THAT WON`T BE UNTIL WELL
AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER/STORM POPPING UP OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT THE ODDS
APPEAR LOW. WOULD RATHER CONCENTRATE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY SEEM MORE LIKELY. EARLY
MORNING MVFR FOG AND HAZE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR OR MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL TUESDAY MORNING BUT DECIDED TO LIMIT
IT TO EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY. THE
GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND RESUME AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KILN 210207
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OHIO KEPT THE REGION DRY TODAY. ILN/S 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWED INSTBY AROUND 2100 J/KG BUT ALSO A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAP AROUND 800 MB. WITH A LAKE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING...THIS
CAP COULD NOT BE OVERCOME TO TAP INTO THIS INSTBY AND PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME
THIN HI LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THRU.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FLOW BACKING. LOW LEVEL JET HAS INITIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST OVER THE MID MS VLY. AS THIS JET SHIFTS NE THE CONVECTION WILL
HEAD EAST TO NE. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE EXPECT
THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING A LTL SLOWER WITH THESE STORMS INTO THE
NW AND FOLLOWED PREV FCST TRENDS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM AS THEY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD IS FOR A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO GET SHEARED INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WOULD BE A PORTION OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WORKED OVER. THEREFORE
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEING INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
AND SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
OCCURRED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...UP
TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NEARER
TO OUR AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY....WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY THERE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO COMBINE WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS GET
ORGANIZED.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE BEST FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EXPECT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN
IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITIES...WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHWEST TO LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN WARM SECTOR WITH OUT FORCING MECHANISM...CAP INHIBITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTN. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THRU THE EVENING. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER ILNS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST. WEAKENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CUD SPILL INTO THE
WESTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT BUT WITH THE BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...AT THIS TIME HAVE JUST INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS AND SWRLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
SHOULD KEEP FOG IN CHECK. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO IFR PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONVECTION WILL LKLY DEVELOP AT ALL SITES ON TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS FORCING INCREASES IN THE MOIST SWRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 26 KNOTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KCLE 210205
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MI HAVE MOVED EAST INTO
ONTARIO. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA FOR NOW.
FOCUS NOW TURNS TO CONVECTION ACROSS IL. MESO MODELS BRING THIS
INTO IND...WITH LITTLE REACHING WESTERN OH AROUND 6 OR 8 AM. HAVE
DRY OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MORNING. AT A MINIMUM DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
ABOUT THAT. MILD TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS LATE AND A LIGHT SOUTH
BREEZE. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER/STORM POPPING UP OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT THE ODDS
APPEAR LOW. WOULD RATHER CONCENTRATE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY SEEM MORE LIKELY. EARLY
MORNING MVFR FOG AND HAZE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR OR MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL TUESDAY MORNING BUT DECIDED TO LIMIT
IT TO EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY. THE
GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND RESUME AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210143
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
943 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND OVER TYGART RIVER AND KANAWHA RIVER
VALLEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS CURVE. REMOVED ALL PCPN
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING NO DISTURBANCES AT H5 WITHIN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...OH...WV...AND PA. FOR
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AT
THIS POINT. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AS THE S/W
TROUGH AND ASSOC VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S PRECIP CONTINUES
EAST AS WELL. LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST LLVL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST.
WILL HOWEVER GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OUT HERE WITH JUST A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL NOTED ON POINT
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY/S S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX CONTINUE
EASTWARD. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BTWN
00Z-03Z TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 2-3KFT LAYER OF CONVECTIVE MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES CENTERED AROUND 850MB AND AROUND 12Z
TUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY 850MB CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE I-79 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AND THUS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER WITH
THIS FEATURE. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER MOST LOCATION DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SE OHIO ZONES BY AND AFTER 21Z AS
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED SAME
AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK AND THUS ORGANIZATION WILL BE AS WELL WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS OR IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE IT RAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IFR FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TYGART RIVER BASIN
INCLUDING EKN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KANAWHA AND ELK RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVY RAIN CAUSED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY...LOW STRATUS...AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210140
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EVE RAOB PLOTS SHOW UPR RIDGING BLDG IN WITH DRY CONDS EXPD
OVRNGT. SKIES HAVE GONE MCLR AND THIS SHOULD CONT TNGT...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CS MOVG IN TWD MRNG. A WARM NGT
IS EXPD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY AGAIN BE RELEGATED TO THE
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ARCHES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES
TO ECLIPSE 2000 J/KG PER THE NAM. WITH THAT IN MIND...SHEAR IS
ONCE AGAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING DURING THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SWINGING THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING BETTER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THINGS DO
LOOK LIKELY TO HEAT UP NICELY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP
TOWARD +16 TO +18C OR SO ON THE CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS RECORDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FINALLY
WANDERS EASTWARD...THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. FIRST OF ALL...A DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE FORMATION OF A
LOW LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN OHIO COULD DRIVE DISSIPATING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION INTO SOME OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY MAKE WARMING LESS EFFICIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRUDGING EASTWARD DOESN`T SEEM TO BRING THE BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z/8 PM...WHICH IS WELL PAST
THE PRIME DAYTIME INSTABILITY HOURS. HOWEVER...35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DO
MEAN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. POPS WERE TRANSITIONED A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE FORECAST
TO SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT LATER ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF.
COLDER AIR FLOODS INTO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEARING. AS THIS OCCURS...WE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE DUE TO MORE RAPID MID-LEVEL COOLING RATHER THAN LOW
LEVEL WARMING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING AS HEAT OF THE DAY HAS PASSED. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH THE
SAME SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AFTER 21Z.
FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCTS FROM KPIT NORTH AND WEST IN TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS61 KCLE 202348
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE SPC
RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. DESPITE
THIS...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING OUT OF DTX INDICATES A STRONG CAP IS
IN PLACE BETWEEN 875-650MB WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIR MASS
ACROSS NRN OHIO. THE CU FIELD HAS ACTUALLY BEEN CLEARING ACROSS NW
OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
CONTINUING TO WATCH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AND
CU FILED ACROSS NRN IND IS HAVING A HARD TIME. HI- RES MODELS
WANT TO CLIP TOLEDO WITH CONVECTION BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BETWEEN 00-03Z...BUT EVEN LATEST RUNS OF THAT ARE LESS
EXCITED. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WITH POPS INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARDS DAWN AS A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER/STORM POPPING UP OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT THE ODDS
APPEAR LOW. WOULD RATHER CONCENTRATE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY SEEM MORE LIKELY. EARLY
MORNING MVFR FOG AND HAZE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR OR MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL TUESDAY MORNING BUT DECIDED TO LIMIT
IT TO EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY. THE
GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND RESUME AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KILN 202347
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A CU DECK WILL THIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO HEAD EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE FORECAST ON BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD IS FOR A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO GET SHEARED INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WOULD BE A PORTION OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WORKED OVER. THEREFORE
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEING INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
AND SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
OCCURRED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...UP
TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NEARER
TO OUR AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY....WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY THERE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO COMBINE WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS GET
ORGANIZED.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE BEST FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EXPECT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN
IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITIES...WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHWEST TO LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN WARM SECTOR WITH OUT FORCING MECHANISM...CAP INHIBITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTN. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THRU THE EVENING. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER ILNS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST. WEAKENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CUD SPILL INTO THE
WESTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT BUT WITH THE BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...AT THIS TIME HAVE JUST INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS AND SWRLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
SHOULD KEEP FOG IN CHECK. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO IFR PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONVECTION WILL LKLY DEVELOP AT ALL SITES ON TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS FORCING INCREASES IN THE MOIST SWRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 26 KNOTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STLT/MESO DATA SHOWS AN UPR WAVE MOVG E INTO CNTRL VA. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE PUSHED E OF OUR FCST AREA...SO REMOVED POPS TNGT.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVE...BUT SOME ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER TO THE W MAY WORK IN OVRNGT. WELL ABV AVG LOWS IN THE
60S EXPD TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY AGAIN BE RELEGATED TO THE
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ARCHES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES
TO ECLIPSE 2000 J/KG PER THE NAM. WITH THAT IN MIND...SHEAR IS
ONCE AGAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING DURING THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SWINGING THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING BETTER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THINGS DO
LOOK LIKELY TO HEAT UP NICELY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP
TOWARD +16 TO +18C OR SO ON THE CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS RECORDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FINALLY
WANDERS EASTWARD...THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. FIRST OF ALL...A DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE FORMATION OF A
LOW LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN OHIO COULD DRIVE DISSIPATING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION INTO SOME OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY MAKE WARMING LESS EFFICIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRUDGING EASTWARD DOESN`T SEEM TO BRING THE BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z/8 PM...WHICH IS WELL PAST
THE PRIME DAYTIME INSTABILITY HOURS. HOWEVER...35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DO
MEAN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. POPS WERE TRANSITIONED A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE FORECAST
TO SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT LATER ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF.
COLDER AIR FLOODS INTO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEARING. AS THIS OCCURS...WE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE DUE TO MORE RAPID MID-LEVEL COOLING RATHER THAN LOW
LEVEL WARMING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING AS HEAT OF THE DAY HAS PASSED. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH THE
SAME SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AFTER 21Z.
FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCTS FROM KPIT NORTH AND WEST IN TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 202249
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE SPC
RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. DESPITE
THIS...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING OUT OF DTX INDICATES A STRONG CAP IS
IN PLACE BETWEEN 875-650MB WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS
ACROSS NRN OHIO. THE CU FIELD HAS ACTUALLY BEEN CLEARING ACROSS NW
OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
CONTINUING TO WATCH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AND
CU FILED ACROSS NRN IND IS HAVING A HARD TIME. HI- RES MODELS
WANT TO CLIP TOLEDO WITH CONVECTION BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BETWEEN 00-03Z...BUT EVEN LATEST RUNS OF THAT ARE LESS
EXCITED. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WITH POPS INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARDS DAWN AS A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF STRATUS OVER N-CENTRAL HAS LIFTED TO MVFR AND CONTINUES
TO ERODE FROM THE EDGES. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR IN AN HOUR OR
TWO. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE PERIOD. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NW OH COULD SEE SOME
STORMS TOWARD EVENING. WILL GO WITH A MENTION OVER ABOUT THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD AFFECT
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY. KERI
ALREADLY HAS A LAKE BREEZE. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH KCLE TODAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202201
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STLT/MESO DATA SHOWS AN UPR WAVE MOVG E INTO CNTRL VA. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE PUSHED E OF OUR FCST AREA...SO REMOVED POPS TNGT.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVE...BUT SOME ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER TO THE W MAY WORK IN OVRNGT. WELL ABV AVG LOWS IN THE
60S EXPD TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY AGAIN BE RELEGATED TO THE
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ARCHES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES
TO ECLIPSE 2000 J/KG PER THE NAM. WITH THAT IN MIND...SHEAR IS
ONCE AGAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING DURING THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SWINGING THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING BETTER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THINGS DO
LOOK LIKELY TO HEAT UP NICELY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP
TOWARD +16 TO +18C OR SO ON THE CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS RECORDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FINALLY
WANDERS EASTWARD...THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. FIRST OF ALL...A DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE FORMATION OF A
LOW LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN OHIO COULD DRIVE DISSIPATING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION INTO SOME OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY MAKE WARMING LESS EFFICIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRUDGING EASTWARD DOESN`T SEEM TO BRING THE BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z/8 PM...WHICH IS WELL PAST
THE PRIME DAYTIME INSTABILITY HOURS. HOWEVER...35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DO
MEAN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. POPS WERE TRANSITIONED A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE FORECAST
TO SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT LATER ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF.
COLDER AIR FLOODS INTO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEARING. AS THIS OCCURS...WE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE DUE TO MORE RAPID MID-LEVEL COOLING RATHER THAN LOW
LEVEL WARMING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROKEN CUMULUS CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS EVENING...BUT TOO SMALL A RISK TO PUT INTO
THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201959
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS WE REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. DESPITE THIS...SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING OUT OF DTX INDICATES A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE BETWEEN
875-650MB WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN OHIO.
THE CU FIELD HAS ACTUALLY BEEN CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SPOKE OF ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE ENHANCED CU FIELD TO
THE WEST AND CLIP THE TOLEDO AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BETWEEN 00-03Z. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING AND WIND FIELD IN NW OHIO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE. WILL CARRY
POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARDS DAWN AS A
LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF STRATUS OVER N-CENTRAL HAS LIFTED TO MVFR AND CONTINUES
TO ERODE FROM THE EDGES. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR IN AN HOUR OR
TWO. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE PERIOD. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NW OH COULD SEE SOME
STORMS TOWARD EVENING. WILL GO WITH A MENTION OVER ABOUT THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD AFFECT
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY. KERI
ALREADLY HAS A LAKE BREEZE. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH KCLE TODAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201928
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
328 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY
PROLIFIC WITH EVEN THE LAST VESTIGES OF THIS MORNING`S STRATUS
OVER OHIO BEING DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR ALL OF THIS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
EVENING ENSUES...CUMULUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND REFORMATION OF SOME AREAS OF STRATUS
SEEM A DECENT BET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IS LESS THAN CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEAK...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM DEWPOINT READINGS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F. WITH THIS IN MIND...AND THE LIKELIHOOD AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
RANGE BOUND BY THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS AND POOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS. AS SUCH...LOWS DROPPING MUCH BELOW
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM LIKE A BIT OF STRETCH. HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A RESULT.
FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY AGAIN BE RELEGATED TO THE
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ARCHES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES
TO ECLIPSE 2000 J/KG PER THE NAM. WITH THAT IN MIND...SHEAR IS
ONCE AGAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING DURING THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SWINGING THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING BETTER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THINGS DO
LOOK LIKELY TO HEAT UP NICELY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP
TOWARD +16 TO +18C OR SO ON THE CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS RECORDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FINALLY
WANDERS EASTWARD...THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. FIRST OF ALL...A DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE FORMATION OF A
LOW LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN OHIO COULD DRIVE DISSIPATING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION INTO SOME OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY MAKE WARMING LESS EFFICIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRUDGING EASTWARD DOESN`T SEEM TO BRING THE BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z/8 PM...WHICH IS WELL PAST
THE PRIME DAYTIME INSTABILITY HOURS. HOWEVER...35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DO
MEAN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. POPS WERE TRANSITIONED A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE FORECAST
TO SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT LATER ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF.
COLDER AIR FLOODS INTO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEARING. AS THIS OCCURS...WE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE DUE TO MORE RAPID MID-LEVEL COOLING RATHER THAN LOW
LEVEL WARMING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROKEN CUMULUS CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS EVENING...BUT TOO SMALL A RISK TO PUT INTO
THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 201909
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A CU DECK WILL THIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO HEAD EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE FORECAST ON BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD IS FOR A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO GET SHEARED INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WOULD BE A PORTION OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WORKED OVER. THEREFORE
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEING INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
AND SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
OCCURRED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...UP
TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...IF CONVECTION DOES GET GOING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NEARER
TO OUR AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY....WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY THERE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO COMBINE WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS GET
ORGANIZED.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE BEST FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EXPECT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN
IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITIES...WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHWEST TO LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL MIXING
RAISES CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. BR MAY FORM
AGAIN TONIGHT AT LUK AND ILN UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS.
DAY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT IF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST HOLDS
TOGETHER AS INDICATED ON THE NAM AND RAP MODELS. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES ON TUESDAY AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201849
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EXITS EAST TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS
POINT. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AS THE S/W TROUGH AND
ASSOC VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S PRECIP CONTINUES EAST AS
WELL. LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST LLVL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST.
WILL HOWEVER GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OUT HERE WITH JUST A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL NOTED ON POINT
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY/S S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX CONTINUE
EASTWARD. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BTWN
00Z-03Z TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 2-3KFT LAYER OF CONVECTIVE MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES CENTERED AROUND 850MB AND AROUND 12Z
TUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY 850MB CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE I-79 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AND THUS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER WITH
THIS FEATURE. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER MOST LOCATION DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SE OHIO ZONES BY AND AFTER 21Z AS
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED SAME
AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK AND THUS ORGANIZATION WILL BE AS WELL WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY SHOULD
SCATTER WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LAST OF
THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. VIS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY SUCH AS CRW AND EKN. EARLY MORNING REDUCED
VIS/LOW STRATUS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY...LOW STRATUS...AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TODAY. NEW FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH
S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX...AND WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH INTO REGION WITH
LESS INSTABILITY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS JUST A BIT MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THOSE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST...HESITANT TO LOWER THOSE
TEMPS TOO MUCH ACROSS CENTRAL CWA WHERE SOME LATE DAY SUN MAY
RESULT IN A QUICK BUMP IN TEMPS PRIOR TO 21Z-22Z. ALSO ALLOWING
FOR FLASH FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE JUST BEFORE TOP OF THE HOUR WITH
HEAVY RAINS ENDING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WITH SMALL STREAMS BEGINNING
TO RECEDE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
5H RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL FORECASTED TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM KEKN
TO KBKW AND POINTS TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
TEMP TRENDS AS VALUES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTING RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 582DAM AND 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 17-18C.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT
DAY. WITH THE HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/EASTERN KY/WV
COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30+ KTS...AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND 10-11K FEET. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE FACTORS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO. OF
COURSE...CLOUD COVER...AND ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY END UP MITIGATING THE THREAT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY SHOULD
SCATTER WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LAST OF
THE PRECIP CONTIUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. VIS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY SUCH AS CRW AND EKN. EARLY MORNING REDUCED
VIS/LOW STRATUS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDTIONS BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY...LOW
STRATUS...AND AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201742
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS HAVE ALL ENDED AFTER ONE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LORAIN COUNTY/LAKE ERIE. SPC
RUC ANALSYS SHOWS 2000-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
BUT GFS SOUNDINGS STILL REFLECT A CAP IN PLACE BETWEEN 850-700MB.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MOST
OF MICHIGAN WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL
IN DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
LOCATED. WE ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND HAVE AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT. IT WILL BE CLOSER TO EVENING
BEFORE THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES TOLEDO FROM THE NORTH. THE OTHER
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE NEAR THE LINGERING STRATUS WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ARE DEVELOPING WITH TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE CLOUD FIELD RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST. THE HRRR AND
RUC/RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST. AT 3 AM EDT THE ILN 88D WAS INDICATING
A FINE LINE OVER SE INDIANA. AS EACH HOUR HAS GONE ON THE MODELS
ARE DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
NOW THEY DON`T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THIS LINE
UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM MAINLY FROM CLE SOUTH. SOME OF THE RADAR
FORECAST OUTPUT FROM SPC STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TODAY...SOME WITH NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME WITH A
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE 4KM WRF NMM MODEL HAS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BECAUSE OF SO MUCH
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY
THIS AM AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. WILL MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES/GRIDS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 4
AM...HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK.
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF TODAY.
OTHER THEN THIS NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY...THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO
STRONG. ERIE MAY GET A LAKE BREEZE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH KEPT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR FORECAST FROM THE
4KM WRF NMM 00Z MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BUT DID CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT BASED ON THE LACK
OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN...CHANCE POPS AS THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND
CONTINUED UNSTABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
GETTING CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SAGGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LIKELY POPS AT TIMES LOOKS VERY GOOD. AS WE GET CLOSER WE WILL BE
ABLE TO PUT MORE RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS. THE HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY IF WE GET TOO MUCH
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN INCH FOR THIS
WEEK...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS AS PER THE DELTA THETA E...WILL
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO MENTION
RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATUS OVER N-CENTRAL HAS LIFTED TO MVFR AND CONTINUES
TO ERODE FROM THE EDGES. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR IN AN HOUR OR
TWO. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE PERIOD. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NW OH COULD SEE SOME
STORMS TOWARD EVENING. WILL GO WITH A MENTION OVER ABOUT THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD AFFECT
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY. KERI
ALREADLY HAS A LAKE BREEZE. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH KCLE TODAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PREDOMINATELY A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST HALF FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KILN 201741
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY EAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A VERY
WEAK CAP...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD POP. GIVEN THAT THIS CHANCE IS ABOUT 10
PERCENT...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
MID LVL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPR LVL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING COMPLEX APPROACHES THE
REGION.
ON TUESDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUS FEATURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH IS STILL SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY BE IN A RELATIVE LULL
BEFORE A MORE BONAFIDE S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS MENTIONED...A MORE BONAFIDE
S/WV IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN TUESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ON THURSDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP SE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS AND CAA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL MIXING
RAISES CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. BR MAY FORM
AGAIN TONIGHT AT LUK AND ILN UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS.
DAY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT IF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST HOLDS
TOGETHER AS INDICATED ON THE NAM AND RAP MODELS. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES ON TUESDAY AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH ONE WEAK SYSTEM ATTEMPTING TO MOVE DIRECTLY INTO
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MAIN
LARGE SCALE PLAYER STILL BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP STEADILY
INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY TOUCHING 70F IN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO HELP INITIATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
LARGE SCALE LIFT IS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER CONVECTION IS
MANAGING TO INITIATE THIS MORNING IN A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL OHIO. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILE...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD FAIL TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM A WHILE...SO POPS/THUNDER
CHANCES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN OHIO AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...MIXING
SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MOST EFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AREA OF
BEST WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB...SO FROM ZANESVILLE TO MERCER
TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE STATUS
QUO REMAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROKEN CUMULUS CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS EVENING...BUT TOO SMALL A RISK TO PUT INTO
THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201437
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TODAY. NEW FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A SUBTLE
SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST...WITH THE STORMS
PUSHING EASTWARD. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ENCOUNTER DECREASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO HOWEVER...SOME STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE NW ZONES IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
5H RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL FORECASTED TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM KEKN
TO KBKW AND POINTS TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
TEMP TRENDS AS VALUES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTING RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 582DAM AND 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 17-18C.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT
DAY. WITH THE HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/EASTERN KY/WV
COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30+ KTS...AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND 10-11K FEET. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE FACTORS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO. OF
COURSE...CLOUD COVER...AND ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY END UP MITIGATING THE THREAT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS COULD GET INTO KBKW TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL TREND OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PREVALENT INVOF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KMC
000
FXUS61 KILN 201431
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY EAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A VERY
WEAK CAP...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD POP. GIVEN THAT THIS CHANCE IS ABOUT 10
PERCENT...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
MID LVL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPR LVL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING COMPLEX APPROACHES THE
REGION.
ON TUESDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUS FEATURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH IS STILL SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY BE IN A RELATIVE LULL
BEFORE A MORE BONAFIDE S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS MENTIONED...A MORE BONAFIDE
S/WV IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN TUESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ON THURSDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP SE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS AND CAA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL MIXING
RAISES CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. BR MAY FORM
AGAIN TONIGHT AT LUK AND ILN UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID
AIRMASS. CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201427
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH ONE WEAK SYSTEM ATTEMPTING TO MOVE DIRECTLY INTO
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MAIN
LARGE SCALE PLAYER STILL BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP STEADILY
INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY TOUCHING 70F IN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO HELP INITIATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
LARGE SCALE LIFT IS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER CONVECTION IS
MANAGING TO INITIATE THIS MORNING IN A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL OHIO. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILE...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD FAIL TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM A WHILE...SO POPS/THUNDER
CHANCES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN OHIO AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...MIXING
SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MOST EFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AREA OF
BEST WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB...SO FROM ZANESVILLE TO MERCER
TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE STATUS
QUO REMAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE EVENING SEEM TO HAVE DISSIPATED...SO
EXPECT THAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT DUJ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL MANAGE TO PUSH ANY
FARTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE CONTINUED SCT IFR CIGS NEAR DAWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. AN EXITING UPR
LVL WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE 30
HOUR TAF FOR PIT.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201411
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1011 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TODAY. NEW FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL FORECASTED TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM KEKN TO
KBKW AND POINTS TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMP TRENDS AS
VALUES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTING RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 582DAM AND 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 17-18C.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT
DAY. WITH THE HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/EASTERN KY/WV
COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30+ KTS...AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND 10-11K FEET. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE FACTORS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO. OF
COURSE...CLOUD COVER...AND ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY END UP MITIGATING THE THREAT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS COULD GET INTO KBKW TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL TREND OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PREVALENT INVOF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KMC
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201356
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
956 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE CU FIELD CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR 850MB AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. MU CAPES ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM SO THUNDER
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE TREND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BE FOR
THIS THETA-E RIDGE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE SO ONLY CARRIED
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST TO ABOUT
CLEVELAND...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOUNDING WHICH ARE
WARMER ALOFT THOUGH 700MB TODAY AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ILN
SOUNDING...SUGGESTING WE WILL BE CAPPED FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 60S IN SOME AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST. THE HRRR AND
RUC/RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST. AT 3 AM EDT THE ILN 88D WAS INDICATING
A FINE LINE OVER SE INDIANA. AS EACH HOUR HAS GONE ON THE MODELS
ARE DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
NOW THEY DON`T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THIS LINE
UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM MAINLY FROM CLE SOUTH. SOME OF THE RADAR
FORECAST OUTPUT FROM SPC STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TODAY...SOME WITH NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME WITH A
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE 4KM WRF NMM MODEL HAS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BECAUSE OF SO MUCH
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY
THIS AM AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. WILL MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES/GRIDS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 4
AM...HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK.
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF TODAY.
OTHER THEN THIS NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY...THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO
STRONG. ERIE MAY GET A LAKE BREEZE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH KEPT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR FORECAST FROM THE
4KM WRF NMM 00Z MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BUT DID CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT BASED ON THE LACK
OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN...CHANCE POPS AS THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND
CONTINUED UNSTABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
GETTING CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SAGGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LIKELY POPS AT TIMES LOOKS VERY GOOD. AS WE GET CLOSER WE WILL BE
ABLE TO PUT MORE RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS. THE HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY IF WE GET TOO MUCH
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN INCH FOR THIS
WEEK...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS AS PER THE DELTA THETA E...WILL
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO MENTION
RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BURNOFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SCATTERED TSRA NW OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND
SEE NO TRIGGER. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PREDOMINATELY A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST HALF FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201257
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH ONE WEAK SYSTEM ATTEMPTING TO MOVE DIRECTLY INTO
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MAIN
LARGE SCALE PLAYER STILL BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP STEADILY
INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY TOUCHING 70F IN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO HELP INITIATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
LARGE SCALE LIFT IS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WITH THE MODELS REALLY
ONLY HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SEEM POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ANYTHING ORGANIZED
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...MIXING
SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MOST EFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AREA OF
BEST WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB...SO FROM ZANESVILLE TO MERCER
TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE STATUS
QUO REMAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE EVENING SEEM TO HAVE DISSIPATED...SO
EXPECT THAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT DUJ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL MANAGE TO PUSH ANY
FARTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE CONTINUED SCT IFR CIGS NEAR DAWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. AN EXITING UPR
LVL WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE 30
HOUR TAF FOR PIT.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201116
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS PER THE MODELS. THE THREAT FOR
SPRINKLES STILL SEEMS OK WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING...SO CONTINUED IT.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM SEEMED TO HAVE
ENDED ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND LOOKING AT SATELLITE PICTURES...RADAR
ETC. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF CLEVELAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST. THE HRRR AND
RUC/RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST. AT 3 AM EDT THE ILN 88D WAS INDICATING
A FINE LINE OVER SE INDIANA. AS EACH HOUR HAS GONE ON THE MODELS
ARE DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
NOW THEY DON`T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THIS LINE
UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM MAINLY FROM CLE SOUTH. SOME OF THE RADAR
FORECAST OUTPUT FROM SPC STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TODAY...SOME WITH NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME WITH A
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE 4KM WRF NMM MODEL HAS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BECAUSE OF SO MUCH
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY
THIS AM AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. WILL MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES/GRIDS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 4
AM...HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK.
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF TODAY.
OTHER THEN THIS NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY...THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO
STRONG. ERIE MAY GET A LAKE BREEZE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH KEPT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR FORECAST FROM THE
4KM WRF NMM 00Z MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BUT DID CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT BASED ON THE LACK
OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN...CHANCE POPS AS THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND
CONTINUED UNSTABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
GETTING CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SAGGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LIKELY POPS AT TIMES LOOKS VERY GOOD. AS WE GET CLOSER WE WILL BE
ABLE TO PUT MORE RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS. THE HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY IF WE GET TOO MUCH
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN INCH FOR THIS
WEEK...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS AS PER THE DELTA THETA E...WILL
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO MENTION
RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BURNOFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SCATTERED TSRA NW OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND
SEE NO TRIGGER. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PREDOMINATELY A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST HALF FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KILN 201034
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LVL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION TODAY. BEFORE
IT DOES...A WEAK WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A SHOWER OR
STORM...SO HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A VERY
WEAK CAP...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD POP. GIVEN THAT THIS CHANCE IS ABOUT 10
PERCENT...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
MID LVL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPR LVL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING COMPLEX APPROACHES THE
REGION.
ON TUESDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUS FEATURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH IS STILL SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY BE IN A RELATIVE LULL
BEFORE A MORE BONAFIDE S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS MENTIONED...A MORE BONAFIDE
S/WV IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN TUESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ON THURSDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP SE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS AND CAA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH WIND FLOW NEVER COMPLETELY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT...VISIBILITIES FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES REMAINED IN THE
MVFR/VFR RANGE (ASIDE FROM KLUK). EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME
STRATUS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING...AND IFR CEILINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS.
THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO FORCING TO HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS...AND A CAP IN
PLACE TO ALSO LIMIT FREE CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. SO...A DRY SET
OF TAFS WILL BE ISSUED. BY EVENING...A FEW COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SIGNAL FOR THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN
INTERMITTENT AND IN POOR AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...SO THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. SSW WINDS TODAY
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SSW WINDS THAT REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
THIS WILL MAKE FOG UNLIKELY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF POSSIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY COMPLICATE THE TAFS WELL BEYOND
WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201024
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS PER THE MODELS. THE THREAT FOR
SPRINKLES STILL SEEMS OK WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING...SO CONTINUED IT.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM SEEMED TO HAVE
ENDED ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND LOOKING AT SATELLITE PICTURES...RADAR
ETC. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF CLEVELAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST. THE HRRR AND
RUC/RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST. AT 3 AM EDT THE ILN 88D WAS INDICATING
A FINE LINE OVER SE INDIANA. AS EACH HOUR HAS GONE ON THE MODELS
ARE DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
NOW THEY DON`T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THIS LINE
UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM MAINLY FROM CLE SOUTH. SOME OF THE RADAR
FORECAST OUTPUT FROM SPC STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TODAY...SOME WITH NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME WITH A
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE 4KM WRF NMM MODEL HAS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BECAUSE OF SO MUCH
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY
THIS AM AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. WILL MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES/GRIDS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 4
AM...HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK.
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF TODAY.
OTHER THEN THIS NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY...THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO
STRONG. ERIE MAY GET A LAKE BREEZE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH KEPT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR FORECAST FROM THE
4KM WRF NMM 00Z MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BUT DID CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT BASED ON THE LACK
OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN...CHANCE POPS AS THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND
CONTINUED UNSTABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
GETTING CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SAGGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LIKELY POPS AT TIMES LOOKS VERY GOOD. AS WE GET CLOSER WE WILL BE
ABLE TO PUT MORE RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS. THE HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY IF WE GET TOO MUCH
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN INCH FOR THIS
WEEK...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS AS PER THE DELTA THETA E...WILL
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO MENTION
RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE 60S DO EXPECT MORE MVFR BR THIS
MORNING...BUT WIND SHOULD HELP IT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. SHORT
TERM MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TSRA IN ILLINOIS...LATEST HRRR
MOVE TSRA INTO NW OH BY 12Z. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADD VCTS TO TOL AND
FDY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PREDOMINATELY A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST HALF FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201007
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TODAY. NEW FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL FORECASTED TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM KEKN TO
KBKW AND POINTS TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMP TRENDS AS
VALUES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTING RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 582DAM AND 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 17-18C.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT
DAY. WITH THE HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/EASTERN KY/WV
COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30+ KTS...AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND 10-11K FEET. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE FACTORS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO. OF
COURSE...CLOUD COVER...AND ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY END UP MITIGATING THE THREAT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS ONE FRONT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS TWO PRONGED ATTACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTS. WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FIRST FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
EXISTING HIGH POPS AND THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
THURSDAY...DESPITE SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND STILL
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POPS
WITH SOME THUNDER.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS COULD GET INTO KBKW TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL TREND OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PREVALENT INVOF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200818
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TODAY...TO THAT WHICH WE
SAW OVER THE PAST WEEKEND. EASTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BREAK FROM THE MAIN
WAVE AND MOVE TOWARD MY SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY UNSTABLE TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP...PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY...THE 50H RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NAM AND GFS HAD BOTH DONE WELL WITH HIGH
TEMPS...SO WILL LEAN CLOSE ON THESE NUMBERS FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE EVENING SEEM TO HAVE DISSIPATED...SO
EXPECT THAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT DUJ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL MANAGE TO PUSH ANY
FARTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE CONTINUED SCT IFR CIGS NEAR DAWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. AN EXITING UPR
LVL WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE 30
HOUR TAF FOR PIT.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 200810
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LVL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION TODAY. BEFORE
IT DOES...A WEAK WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A SHOWER OR
STORM...SO HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A VERY
WEAK CAP...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD POP. GIVEN THAT THIS CHANCE IS ABOUT 10
PERCENT...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
MID LVL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPR LVL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING COMPLEX APPROACHES THE
REGION.
ON TUESDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUS FEATURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH IS STILL SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY BE IN A RELATIVE LULL
BEFORE A MORE BONAFIDE S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS MENTIONED...A MORE BONAFIDE
S/WV IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN TUESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ON THURSDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DROP SE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS AND CAA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE AN INDICATION OF THE RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY
OBSERVATIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS (TAF AND
NON-TAF) SO FAR...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
NOT ALLOW WINDS TO SLACK OFF ENTIRELY. SO...IFR FOG IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING. SHELTERED KLUK WILL STILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE REST OF THE DAY APPEARS
VOID OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION. SO...A DRY SET OF TAFS WILL BE
ISSUED. SSW WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND VFR CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200801 CCA
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST. THE HRRR AND RUC/RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST. AT 3 AM EDT
THE ILN 88D WAS INDICATING A FINE LINE OVER SE INDIANA. AS EACH HOUR
HAS GONE ON THE MODELS ARE DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. NOW THEY DON`T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ON THIS LINE UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM MAINLY FROM CLE SOUTH.
SOME OF THE RADAR FORECAST OUTPUT FROM SPC STORM-SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR
TODAY...SOME WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME WITH A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE 4KM WRF NMM
MODEL HAS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS BECAUSE OF SO MUCH RIDGING ALOFT...BUT WILL FORECAST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES MAINLY THIS AM AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES/GRIDS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 4
AM...HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK.
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE MOST OF TODAY.
OTHER THEN THIS NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY...THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO
STRONG. ERIE MAY GET A LAKE BREEZE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH KEPT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR FORECAST FROM THE
4KM WRF NMM 00Z MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BUT DID CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT BASED ON THE LACK
OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN...CHANCE POPS AS THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND
CONTINUED UNSTABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
GETTING CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SAGGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LIKELY POPS AT TIMES LOOKS VERY GOOD. AS WE GET CLOSER WE WILL BE
ABLE TO PUT MORE RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS. THE HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY IF WE GET TOO MUCH
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN INCH FOR THIS
WEEK...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS AS PER THE DELTA THETA E...WILL
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO MENTION
RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE 60S DO EXPECT MORE MVFR BR THIS
MORNING...BUT WIND SHOULD HELP IT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. SHORT
TERM MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TSRA IN ILLINOIS...LATEST HRR
MOVE TSRA INTO NW OH BY 12Z. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADD VCTS TO TOL AND
FDY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PREDOMINATELY A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST HALF FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200757
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
357 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST. THE HRRR AND RUC/RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST. AT 3 AM EDT
THE ILN 88D WAS INDICATING A FINE LINE OVER SE INDIANA. AS EACH HOUR
HAS GONE ON THE MODELS ARE DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. NOW THEY DON`T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ON THIS LINE UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM MAINLY FROM CLE SOUTH.
SOME OF THE RADAR FORECAST OUTPUT FROM SPC STORM-SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR
TODAY...SOME WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME WITH A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE 4KM WRF NMM
MODEL HAS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS BECAUSE OF SO MUCH RIDGING ALOFT...BUT WILL FORECAST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES MAINLY THIS AM AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES/GRIDS.
OTHER THEN THIS NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY...THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO STRONG. ERIE MAY
GET A LAKE BREEZE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH KEPT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR FORECAST FROM THE
4KM WRF NMM 00Z MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BUT DID CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT BASED ON THE LACK
OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN...CHANCE POPS AS THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND
CONTINUED UNSTABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
GETTING CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SAGGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LIKELY POPS AT TIMES LOOKS VERY GOOD. AS WE GET CLOSER WE WILL BE
ABLE TO PUT MORE RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS. THE HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY IF WE GET TOO MUCH
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN INCH FOR THIS
WEEK...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS AS PER THE DELTA THETA E...WILL
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO MENTION
RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE 60S DO EXPECT MORE MVFR BR THIS
MORNING...BUT WIND SHOULD HELP IT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. SHORT
TERM MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TSRA IN ILLINOIS...LATEST HRR
MOVE TSRA INTO NW OH BY 12Z. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADD VCTS TO TOL AND
FDY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PREDOMINATELY A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST HALF FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200738
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TODAY. NEW FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL FORECASTED TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM KEKN TO
KBKW AND POINTS TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMP TRENDS AS
VALUES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTING RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 582DAM AND 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 17-18C.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT
DAY. WITH THE HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/EASTERN KY/WV
COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30+ KTS...AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND 10-11K FEET. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE FACTORS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO. OF
COURSE...CLOUD COVER...AND ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY END UP MITIGATING THE THREAT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS ONE FRONT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS TWO PRONGED ATTACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTS. WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FIRST FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
EXISTING HIGH POPS AND THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
THURSDAY...DESPITE SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND STILL
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POPS
WITH SOME THUNDER.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE WHERE RAIN FELL RECENTLY. SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE
SHALLOW...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. DIURNAL TREND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF.
REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TODAY...TO THAT WHICH WE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BREAK FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND
MOVE TOWARD MY SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY UNSTABLE TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP...PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY...THE 50H RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NAM AND GFS HAD BOTH DONE WELL WITH HIGH
TEMPS...SO WILL LEAN CLOSE ON THESE NUMBERS FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE EVENING SEEM TO HAVE DISSIPATED...SO
EXPECT THAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT DUJ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL MANAGE TO PUSH ANY
FARTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE CONTINUED SCT IFR CIGS NEAR DAWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. AN EXITING UPR
LVL WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE 30
HOUR TAF FOR PIT.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200528
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TONIGHT/MONDAY. NEW FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LAST OF THE SHOWERS STILL DRIFTING NE JUST EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER FROM MASON TO TYLER COUNTY WV. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...SO DECREASED POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO THE EAST AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW
RATE...AND HAS ALREADY SET OFF NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING THIS MORNING OVER THE TUG FORK VALLEY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ELIMINATING THE
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MIXING. BUT THIS EARLY HEATING HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND IN THE
END...ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING.
NOT ANTICIPATING WATER ISSUES WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE OTHER TRICK TO THE FORECAST...AS HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
PAST NIGHTS HAVE SEEN JUST ENOUGH CLEARING OVER WET SURFACES TO
GIVE STOUT RIVER VALLEY FOG. LAST NIGHT...MOST PLACES WERE
OVERCAST ELIMINATING THAT POSSIBILITY...AGAIN...LESS THE TUG FORK
VALLEY. FEELING IS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FOR THE EARLY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY...REDUCING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA WITH SOME STABILITY ALOFT.
EXPECTING A WARM UP WITH RISES IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ULTIMATELY
LIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY NEAR 90 DEGREES FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS ONE FRONT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS TWO PRONGED ATTACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTS. WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FIRST FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
EXISTING HIGH POPS AND THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
THURSDAY...DESPITE SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND STILL
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POPS
WITH SOME THUNDER.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE WHERE RAIN FELL RECENTLY. SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE
SHALLOW...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. DIURNAL TREND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC
000
FXUS61 KILN 200524
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SPINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WAS UNDER A
BROAD RIDGE WHICH EXTENDED NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ONLY AN ISOLD SHOWER
REMAINS ACRS THE FAR EAST. WILL END THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS
WERE SHOWING SOME SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT BUT WITH PROB RATHER LOW HAVE
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY.
CLOUD COVER IS GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. THE
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AND THE HWO PRODUCT
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE WIND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AS WELL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS ALL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FORCING OUT OF OUR AREA
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DO SHOW A VERY HIGH AMOUNT
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO
IF ANY BOUNDARIES WERE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF
THE QUIET...YET UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. 850 HPA TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
FOR TEMPERATURES NOT RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S WILL BE THE LACK OF
DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST IN TANDEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER WAVES OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TIME
PERIOD. WENT AS FAR AS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE FIRST WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE NMM...ARW...CMC REG...AND NAM
ALL INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE NOCTURNAL
AND LIKELY LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN NATURE OF THIS
FEATURE...AM FORECASTING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS OUR FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOWS.
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AM FORECASTING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER TEENS STILL ON TUESDAY.
WITH DEEPER MIXING IN PLACE TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOW 90S IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
SUNNIER AND DRIER SOUTHEAST...AND THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
CLOUDIER AND HIGHER POPS NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN PIVOT EAST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE AN INDICATION OF THE RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY
OBSERVATIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS (TAF AND
NON-TAF) SO FAR...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
NOT ALLOW WINDS TO SLACK OFF ENTIRELY. SO...IFR FOG IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING. SHELTERED KLUK WILL STILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE REST OF THE DAY APPEARS
VOID OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION. SO...A DRY SET OF TAFS WILL BE
ISSUED. SSW WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND VFR CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200517
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
117 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS. CONTINUING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR...THAT SHOULD WORK FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA AROUND 4 AM EDT AND
MOVING EAST. IF IT DEVELOPS IT SHOULD NOT REACH TOLEDO AND FINDLAY
AREAS UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM. NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT GETTING HIGHER.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME CLOUDS MAY FORM OVER NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE 60S DO EXPECT MORE MVFR BR THIS
MORNING...BUT WIND SHOULD HELP IT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. SHORT
TERM MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TSRA IN ILLINOIS...LATEST HRR
MOVE TSRA INTO NW OH BY 12Z. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADD VCTS TO TOL AND
FDY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...GARNET
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200510
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF.
REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TODAY...TO THAT WHICH WE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BREAK FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND
MOVE TOWARD MY SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY UNSTABLE TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP...PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY...THE 50H RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NAM AND GFS HAD BOTH DONE WELL WITH HIGH
TEMPS...SO WILL LEAN CLOSE ON THESE NUMBERS FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE AS THERE IS NO FORCING COMPONENT OR
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO GET THINGS ROLLING. THINK THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION IS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A RESULT OF LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE...EXCPT FOR DUJ WHERE IFR CIGS ARE
EXPD TO CONT OVRNGT. ELSW...COULD SEE SOME PTCHY STRATUS/MVFR BR
DVLPG OVRNGT. EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES TO SEE CIGS S-E OF PIT...AS WELL AS FKL/DUJ. CONDS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACRS THE RGN MON MRNG. AN EXITING UPR LVL
WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200423
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1223 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS. CONTINUING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR...THAT SHOULD WORK FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA AROUND 4 AM EDT AND
MOVING EAST. IF IT DEVELOPS IT SHOULD NOT REACH TOLEDO AND FINDLAY
AREAS UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM. NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT GETTING HIGHER.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME CLOUDS MAY FORM OVER NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZE TO RELAX/RETREAT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT NOW...DEWPOINTS UP 10-15 DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING...AREA MAY GET A LITTLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MVFR BR DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. MUCH
OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY...AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP AT OR AROUND 4K
FEET. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY...AND LAKE BREEZE MAY JUST BE
CONFINED TO ERIE...HALTING JUST NORTH OF CLE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALSO IN EARLY MORNING BR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...GARNET
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200206
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1006 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TONIGHT/MONDAY. NEW FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LAST OF THE SHOWERS STILL DRIFTING NE JUST EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER FROM MASON TO TYLER COUNTY WV. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...SO DECREASED POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO THE EAST AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW
RATE...AND HAS ALREADY SET OFF NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING THIS MORNING OVER THE TUG FORK VALLEY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ELIMINATING THE
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MIXING. BUT THIS EARLY HEATING HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND IN THE
END...ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING.
NOT ANTICIPATING WATER ISSUES WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE OTHER TRICK TO THE FORECAST...AS HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
PAST NIGHTS HAVE SEEN JUST ENOUGH CLEARING OVER WET SURFACES TO
GIVE STOUT RIVER VALLEY FOG. LAST NIGHT...MOST PLACES WERE
OVERCAST ELIMINATING THAT POSSIBILITY...AGAIN...LESS THE TUG FORK
VALLEY. FEELING IS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FOR THE EARLY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY...REDUCING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA WITH SOME STABILITY ALOFT.
EXPECTING A WARM UP WITH RISES IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ULTIMATELY
LIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY NEAR 90 DEGREES FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS ONE FRONT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS TWO PRONGED ATTACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTS. WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FIRST FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
EXISTING HIGH POPS AND THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
THURSDAY...DESPITE SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND STILL
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POPS
WITH SOME THUNDER.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL
INCLUDED SOME VCTS/CB AT PKB AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH IS STILL POPPING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT HAS RAINED RECENTLY. DESPITE NOT RAINING TODAY AT
EKN...STILL INCLUDED VALLEY FOG THERE AS WELL. FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE IF CLOUDS REMAIN MORE OVC/BKN IN ANY AREAS IN WHICH CASE FOG
WOULD BE LESS LIKELY. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TOMORROW...WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3-4KFT CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L M H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KILN 200157
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SPINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WAS UNDER A
BROAD RIDGE WHICH EXTENDED NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ONLY AN ISOLD SHOWER
REMAINS ACRS THE FAR EAST. WILL END THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS
WERE SHOWING SOME SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT BUT WITH PROB RATHER LOW HAVE
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY.
CLOUD COVER IS GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. THE
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AND THE HWO PRODUCT
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE WIND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AS WELL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS ALL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FORCING OUT OF OUR AREA
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DO SHOW A VERY HIGH AMOUNT
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO
IF ANY BOUNDARIES WERE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF
THE QUIET...YET UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. 850 HPA TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
FOR TEMPERATURES NOT RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S WILL BE THE LACK OF
DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST IN TANDEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER WAVES OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TIME
PERIOD. WENT AS FAR AS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE FIRST WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE NMM...ARW...CMC REG...AND NAM
ALL INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE NOCTURNAL
AND LIKELY LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN NATURE OF THIS
FEATURE...AM FORECASTING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS OUR FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOWS.
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AM FORECASTING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER TEENS STILL ON TUESDAY.
WITH DEEPER MIXING IN PLACE TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOW 90S IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
SUNNIER AND DRIER SOUTHEAST...AND THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
CLOUDIER AND HIGHER POPS NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN PIVOT EAST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WAS UNDER A
BROAD RIDGE WHICH EXTENDED NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR TROF
AIDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF ILN/S FA. CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING AND
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AFTER 14Z MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY. IN WARM SECTOR WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CAP SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE...
HAVE CONTINUED PREV FCST TREND KEEPING THE TAFS DRY AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200134
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVE RAOB PLOTS/STLT DATA SHOW AN UPR LVL WAVE OVR WV. THIS WL
CONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THRU MON. ISOLD SHWRS S OF PIT SHOULD
CONT TO DMNSH AND GRDLY END OVRNGT. REMOVED TSTMS FM THE FCST AS
INSTAB DROPS OFF. NR TERM MDL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DVLPG AREAS N-E OF PIT TNGT AS WELL. WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY E-SE OF PIT MON AS THE UPR WV BEGINS TO EXIT TO
THE E. MDL PROGS SHOW INSTAB SHOULD BE MINIMAL MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DSPTG MON EVE AS THE UPR WAVE CONTS TO
MOVE OUT. LOW CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS RETURNS TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH
SOME UPR AND MID LVL RIDGING AND LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER SHOULD
HELP LMT ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT MUCH ABV AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE...EXCPT FOR DUJ WHERE IFR CIGS ARE
EXPD TO CONT OVRNGT. ELSW...COULD SEE SOME PTCHY STRATUS/MVFR BR
DVLPG OVRNGT. EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES TO SEE CIGS S-E OF PIT...AS WELL AS FKL/DUJ. CONDS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACRS THE RGN MON MRNG. AN EXITING UPR LVL
WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200117
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS WERE
MADE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ORIGINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH AN ENHANCED
CU FIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FROM ROUGHLY MARION TO
SANDUSKY. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED THUS FAR AS SHOWERS STRUGGLE TO GROW WITH
WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS BENEATH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
RAMPS UP LATE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND TONIGHT...EXPECT MINS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH MORE LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZE TO RELAX/RETREAT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT NOW...DEWPOINTS UP 10-15 DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING...AREA MAY GET A LITTLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MVFR BR DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. MUCH
OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY...AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP AT OR AROUND 4K
FEET. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY...AND LAKE BREEZE MAY JUST BE
CONFINED TO ERIE...HALTING JUST NORTH OF CLE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALSO IN EARLY MORNING BR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...GARNET
000
FXUS61 KILN 192353
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
753 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SPINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST VIRGINIA INTERACTING WITH A
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING A QUICK END TO MOST ACTIVITY BY THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGHER RES MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BASED ON THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND THE FAIR NUMBER OF MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AND ASIDE
FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
INHERENT AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. THIS AIRMASS PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG AND WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES FORESEEN IN THIS AIRMASS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS ALL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FORCING OUT OF OUR AREA
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DO SHOW A VERY HIGH AMOUNT
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO
IF ANY BOUNDARIES WERE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF
THE QUIET...YET UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. 850 HPA TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
FOR TEMPERATURES NOT RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S WILL BE THE LACK OF
DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST IN TANDEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER WAVES OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TIME
PERIOD. WENT AS FAR AS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE FIRST WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE NMM...ARW...CMC REG...AND NAM
ALL INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE NOCTURNAL
AND LIKELY LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN NATURE OF THIS
FEATURE...AM FORECASTING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS OUR FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOWS.
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AM FORECASTING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER TEENS STILL ON TUESDAY.
WITH DEEPER MIXING IN PLACE TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOW 90S IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
SUNNIER AND DRIER SOUTHEAST...AND THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
CLOUDIER AND HIGHER POPS NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN PIVOT EAST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WAS UNDER A
BROAD RIDGE WHICH EXTENDED NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR TROF
AIDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF ILN/S FA. CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING AND
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AFTER 14Z MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY. IN WARM SECTOR WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CAP SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE...
HAVE CONTINUED PREV FCST TREND KEEPING THE TAFS DRY AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KCLE 192338
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPS WERE MADE. ALSO
DECREASED CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING AND REMOVED POPS AS SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOWS DIURNAL TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE STABLE.
ORIGINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH AN ENHANCED
CU FIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FROM ROUGHLY MARION TO
SANDUSKY. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED THUS FAR AS SHOWERS STRUGGLE TO GROW WITH
WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS BENEATH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
RAMPS UP LATE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND TONIGHT...EXPECT MINS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH MORE LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZE TO RELAX/RETREAT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT NOW...DEWPOINTS UP 10-15 DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING...AREA MAY GET A LITTLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MVFR BR DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. MUCH
OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY...AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP AT OR AROUND 4K
FEET. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY...AND LAKE BREEZE MAY JUST BE
CONFINED TO ERIE...HALTING JUST NORTH OF CLE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AND ALSO IN EARLY MORNING BR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...GARNET
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192327
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STLT/MESO DATA SHOWS AN UPR LVL WAVE OVR CNTRL WV. THIS WL CONT TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THRU MON. ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS S OF PIT SHOULD
QUICKLY DSPT AFT SUNSET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DVLPG AREAS N-E OF PIT TWD MRNG AS WELL. WL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY E-SE OF PIT MON AS THE UPR WV BEGINS TO
EXIT TO THE E. MDL PROGS SHOW INSTAB SHOULD BE MINIMAL MON. WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS FCST FOR MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DSPTG MON EVE AS THE UPR WAVE CONTS TO
MOVE OUT. CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS RETURNS TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR
AND MID LVL RIDGING AND LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER SHOULD HELP LMT
ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT MUCH ABV AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE...EXCPT FOR DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPD TO CONT. AS LLVL MOISTURE INCRS EXP DUJ CIGS WL DROP TO IFR
LTR THIS EVE AND CONT OVRNGT. ELSW...COULD SEE SOME PTCHY STRATUS/MVFR
BR DVLPG OVRNGT. EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE CIGS S-E OF PIT...AS WELL AS FKL/DUJ.
CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACRS THE RGN MON MRNG. AN EXITING UPR
LVL WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL CONT TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS61 KRLX 192327
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TONIGHT/MONDAY. NEW FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...REMAINING CONVECTION IS DECREASING AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH. DO HAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY N AND NW OF CHARLESTON...THAT IS
STILL POPPING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...DECREASING THEM TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO THE EAST AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW
RATE...AND HAS ALREADY SET OFF NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING THIS MORNING OVER THE TUG FORK VALLEY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ELIMINATING THE
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MIXING. BUT THIS EARLY HEATING HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND IN THE
END...ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING.
NOT ANTICIPATING WATER ISSUES WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE OTHER TRICK TO THE FORECAST...AS HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
PAST NIGHTS HAVE SEEN JUST ENOUGH CLEARING OVER WET SURFACES TO
GIVE STOUT RIVER VALLEY FOG. LAST NIGHT...MOST PLACES WERE
OVERCAST ELIMINATING THAT POSSIBILITY...AGAIN...LESS THE TUG FORK
VALLEY. FEELING IS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FOR THE EARLY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY...REDUCING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA WITH SOME STABILITY ALOFT.
EXPECTING A WARM UP WITH RISES IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ULTIMATELY
LIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY NEAR 90 DEGREES FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS ONE FRONT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS TWO PRONGED ATTACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTS. WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FIRST FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
EXISTING HIGH POPS AND THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
THURSDAY...DESPITE SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND STILL
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POPS
WITH SOME THUNDER.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL
INCLUDED SOME VCTS/CB AT PKB AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH IS STILL POPPING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT HAS RAINED RECENTLY. DESPITE NOT RAINING TODAY AT
EKN...STILL INCLUDED VALLEY FOG THERE AS WELL. FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE IF CLOUDS REMAIN MORE OVC/BKN IN ANY AREAS IN WHICH CASE FOG
WOULD BE LESS LIKELY. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TOMORROW...WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3-4KFT CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KCLE 192234
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPS WERE MADE. ALSO
DECREASED CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING AND REMOVED POPS AS SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOWS DIURNAL TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE STABLE.
ORIGINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH AN ENHANCED
CU FIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FROM ROUGHLY MARION TO
SANDUSKY. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED THUS FAR AS SHOWERS STRUGGLE TO GROW WITH
WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS BENEATH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
RAMPS UP LATE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND TONIGHT...EXPECT MINS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH MORE LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR HAS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR MORE CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
WIDESPREAD CU AROUND 4KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. I WILL PUT VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR
WITH HAZE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192220
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STLT/MESO DATA SHOWS AN UPR LVL WAVE OVR CNTRL WV. THIS WL CONT TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THRU MON. ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS S OF PIT SHOULD
QUICKLY DSPT AFT SUNSET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DVLPG AREAS N-E OF PIT TWD MRNG AS WELL. WL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY E-SE OF PIT MON AS THE UPR WV BEGINS TO
EXIT TO THE E. MDL PROGS SHOW INSTAB SHOULD BE MINIMAL MON. WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS FCST FOR MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DSPTG MON EVE AS THE UPR WAVE CONTS TO
MOVE OUT. CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS RETURNS TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR
AND MID LVL RIDGING AND LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER SHOULD HELP LMT
ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT MUCH ABV AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND `
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER ON MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT SE WINDS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS
SEVERAL TERMINALS. THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE. RAN
WITH IFR AT DUJ AND FKL...OTHERWISE BROUGHT CIGS TO MVFR AT MOST
THEN LIFT THEM BY 14Z. ONCE ANY STRATUS LIFTS LOOK FOR VFR WX.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR WEATHER WILL BE WED AND THU IN
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS61 KCLE 192000
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH AN ENHANCED CU FIELD ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FROM ROUGHLY MARION TO SANDUSKY. SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED THUS
FAR AS SHOWERS STRUGGLE TO GROW WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
BENEATH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEFORE
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP LATE. ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH MORE MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT...EXPECT
MINS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MORE LOCATIONS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR HAS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR MORE CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
WIDESPREAD CU AROUND 4KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. I WILL PUT VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR
WITH HAZE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191956
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SE FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD FOG AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS GARRETT
COUNTY. TEMPS OVER WRN MD ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SRLY TNGT WHICH WILL SLOWLY EAT AWAY AT
UPSLOPE CLOUDS. ONE GOOD THING FROM THE CLOUDS IS ATMS NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN MD.
ISOLD STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES OVER
EASTERN OHIO AND NRN WV. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
FROM 2G4 - IDI - DUJ. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING.
H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE REGION MON SUPPORTING STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LFCS AROUND 10KFT AND CRITICAL TSTM TEMPERATURE
THRESHOLDS INTO THE 90S. REMOVED POPS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
LOWLANDS...STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE TERRAIN TO WARRANT SCHC
MENTION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM NAM12 BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND `
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER ON MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT SE WINDS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS
SEVERAL TERMINALS. THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE. RAN
WITH IFR AT DUJ AND FKL...OTHERWISE BROUGHT CIGS TO MVFR AT MOST
THEN LIFT THEM BY 14Z. ONCE ANY STRATUS LIFTS LOOK FOR VFR WX.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR WEATHER WILL BE WED AND THU IN
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98/07
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...98
000
FXUS61 KILN 191917
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SPINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST VIRGINIA INTERACTING WITH A
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING A QUICK END TO MOST ACTIVITY BY THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGHER RES MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BASED ON THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND THE FAIR NUMBER OF MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AND ASIDE
FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
INHERENT AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. THIS AIRMASS PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG AND WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES FORESEEN IN THIS AIRMASS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS ALL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FORCING OUT OF OUR AREA
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DO SHOW A VERY HIGH AMOUNT
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO
IF ANY BOUNDARIES WERE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF
THE QUIET...YET UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. 850 HPA TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
FOR TEMPERATURES NOT RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S WILL BE THE LACK OF
DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST IN TANDEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER WAVES OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TIME
PERIOD. WENT AS FAR AS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE FIRST WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE NMM...ARW...CMC REG...AND NAM
ALL INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE NOCTURNAL
...AND LIKELY LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN NATURE OF THIS
FEATURE...AM FORECASTING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS OUR FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOWS.
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AM FORECASTING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER TEENS STILL ON TUESDAY.
WITH DEEPER MIXING IN PLACE TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOW 90S IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
SUNNIER AND DRIER SOUTHEAST...AND THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
CLOUDIER AND HIGHER POPS NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN PIVOT EAST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID
70S. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ENHANCES INSTABILITY ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MAINLY CLOSE TO EASTERN SITES ILN CMH AND LCK. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING SHOWERS TO AN END. UNDER
CALM WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS...FG AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 12Z MONDAY. MODELS PREDICT A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK SO KEPT SHOWERS
OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TONIGHT/MONDAY. NEW FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO THE EAST AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW
RATE...AND HAS ALREADY SET OFF NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING THIS MORNING OVER THE TUG FORK VALLEY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ELIMINATING THE
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MIXING. BUT THIS EARLY HEATING HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND IN THE
END...ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING.
NOT ANTICIPATING WATER ISSUES WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE OTHER TRICK TO THE FORECAST...AS HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
PAST NIGHTS HAVE SEEN JUST ENOUGH CLEARING OVER WET SURFACES TO
GIVE STOUT RIVER VALLEY FOG. LAST NIGHT...MOST PLACES WERE
OVERCAST ELIMINATING THAT POSSIBILITY...AGAIN...LESS THE TUG FORK
VALLEY. FEELING IS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FOR THE EARLY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY...REDUCING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA WITH SOME STABILITY ALOFT.
EXPECTING A WARM UP WITH RISES IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ULTIMATELY
LIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY NEAR 90 DEGREES FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS ONE FRONT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS TWO PRONGED ATTACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTS. WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FIRST FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
EXISTING HIGH POPS AND THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
THURSDAY...DESPITE SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND STILL
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POPS
WITH SOME THUNDER.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CARRY VCTS/VCSH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW TEMPOS FOR
TERMINALS. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSRA...AND KEEP THE OVERALL FORECAST CONSERVATIVE.
QUESTIONS ARISE OVER RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. TREND
THE TERMINALS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH IFR IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT EKN/CKB/PKB.
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FOR MONDAY...AND HAVE REDUCED THE
CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPOS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT HAVE BEEN NEEDED
OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN HIT OR MISS CONVECTION. QUESTIONS
LINGER ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191820
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TONIGHT/MONDAY. NEW FRONT
APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO THE EAST AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW
RATE...AND HAS ALREADY SET OFF NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING THIS MORNING OVER THE TUG FORK VALLEY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ELIMINATING THE
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MIXING. BUT THIS EARLY HEATING HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND IN THE
END...ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING.
NOT ANTICIPATING WATER ISSUES WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE OTHER TRICK TO THE FORECAST...AS HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
PAST NIGHTS HAVE SEEN JUST ENOUGH CLEARING OVER WET SURFACES TO
GIVE STOUT RIVER VALLEY FOG. LAST NIGHT...MOST PLACES WERE
OVERCAST ELIMINATING THAT POSSIBILITY...AGAIN...LESS THE TUG FORK
VALLEY. FEELING IS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FOR THE EARLY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY...REDUCING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA WITH SOME STABILITY ALOFT.
EXPECTING A WARM UP WITH RISES IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ULTIMATELY
LIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US....AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE MID OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK SOME. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. POP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CARRY VCTS/VCSH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW TEMPOS FOR
TERMINALS. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSRA...AND KEEP THE OVERALL FORECAST CONSERVATIVE.
QUESTIONS ARISE OVER RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. TREND
THE TERMINALS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH IFR IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT EKN/CKB/PKB.
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FOR MONDAY...AND HAVE REDUCED THE
CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPOS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT HAVE BEEN NEEDED
OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN HIT OR MISS CONVECTION. QUESTIONS
LINGER ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
LATE IFR FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191736
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF COLUMBUS WHERE THE BUILD-UP IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
DEWPOINTS ARE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY SHALLOW SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WARM
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MNN-MFD-YNG LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING THIS MORNING
ALONG THE LAKEFRONT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP SLOW THE DAYTIME WARM
UP...BUT GIVEN A MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE 60S FOR CLE AND ERI
CONDITIONS ALREADY HAVE A FAVORABLE START TO REACH 80. WITH THE
WARM FRONT STILL STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM YOUNGSTOWN
TO MARION COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK SO EVEN IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE
DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN`T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR HAS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR MORE CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
WIDESPREAD CU AROUND 4KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. I WILL PUT VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR
WITH HAZE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KILN 191734
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PESKY UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP ONCE
AGAIN. RAP NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT AN IMPLIED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM COULD POP WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE OUR AREA A REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
THUS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...IT WILL
ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 19.00Z
CMC AND THE 19.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED
BACK WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO USE. DURING THIS PERIOD...MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A LARGE SCALE MID LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL DEPEND ON ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT MAY EJECT NE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL BLEND. IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION...A MORE
BONAFIDE S/WV AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ENHANCES INSTABILITY ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MAINLY CLOSE TO EASTERN SITES ILN CMH AND LCK. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING SHOWERS TO AN END. UNDER
CALM WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS...FG AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 12Z MONDAY. MODELS PREDICT A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK SO KEPT SHOWERS
OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191728
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE MENTION OF A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEARLY
EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SE FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD FOG AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS GARRETT
COUNTY. TEMPS OVER WRN MD ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SRLY TNGT WHICH WILL SLOWLY EAT AWAY AT
UPSLOPE CLOUDS. ONE GOOD THING FROM THE CLOUDS IS ATMS NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN MD.
ISOLD STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES OVER
EASTERN OHIO AND NRN WV. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
FROM 2G4 - IDI - DUJ. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING.
H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE REGION MON SUPPORTING STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LFCS AROUND 10KFT AND CRITICAL TSTM TEMPERATURE
THRESHOLDS INTO THE 90S. REMOVED POPS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
LOWLANDS...STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE TERRAIN TO WARRANT SCHC
MENTION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM NAM12 BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND `
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER ON MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT SE WINDS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS
SEVERAL TERMINALS. THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE. RAN
WITH IFR AT DUJ AND FKL...OTHERWISE BROUGHT CIGS TO MVFR AT MOST
THEN LIFT THEM BY 14Z. ONCE ANY STRATUS LIFTS LOOK FOR VFR WX.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR WEATHER WILL BE WED AND THU IN
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...98
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191716
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
116 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF COLUMBUS WHERE THE BUILD-UP IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
DEWPOINTS ARE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY SHALLOW SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WARM
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MNN-MFD-YNG LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING THIS MORNING
ALONG THE LAKEFRONT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP SLOW THE DAYTIME WARM
UP...BUT GIVEN A MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE 60S FOR CLE AND ERI
CONDITIONS ALREADY HAVE A FAVORABLE START TO REACH 80. WITH THE
WARM FRONT STILL STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM YOUNGSTOWN
TO MARION COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK SO EVEN IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE
DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN`T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY 5SM BR
DEVELOPED AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHEN
AND WHERE WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A BOUNDARY
WAS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND AN UPPER LOW WAS NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER. THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND OF LAKE ERIE
AFTER 19Z. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END AROUND DARK.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL NOT MOVE INLAND AS FAR AS
YESTERDAY. IT WILL MAKE IT TO ERI AND MORE THEN LIKELY CLE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KILN 191442
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PESKY UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP ONCE
AGAIN. RAP NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT AN IMPLIED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM COULD POP WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE OUR AREA A REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
THUS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...IT WILL
ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 19.00Z
CMC AND THE 19.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED
BACK WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO USE. DURING THIS PERIOD...MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A LARGE SCALE MID LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL DEPEND ON ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT MAY EJECT NE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL BLEND. IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION...A MORE
BONAFIDE S/WV AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FG IS DISSIPATING WITH ALL SITES SOON TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ENHANCES INSTABILITY ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN SITES CMH AND LCK. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING SHOWERS TO AN END.
UNDER CALM WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS...BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR CVG AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191437
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANTS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADDS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER WESTERN CWA LENDING TO MORE HEATING WHICH
COULD IMPACT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TODAY. HAVE CHANGED
THE SHAPE OF THE LIKELY POPS AND HIGHER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
COMMENCES. WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 1.4 INCHES...AND THE LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT STORMS TO BE SLOW
MOVERS..AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN. SO FAR COVERAGE
HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY...AND GROUND SEEMS ABLE TO HANDLE THE
DOWNPOURS...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALIZED WATER
ISSUES IN HWO. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
MET/MAV...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US....AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE MID OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK SOME. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. POP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING AT KBKW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...WHEN SOME LIFTING OF CIGS TO LOW VFR MAY OCCUR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY AFTER
16Z...AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY BY AROUND 00Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AT KBKW. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING...LOCATION OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING ONLY PATCHY/LOCAL MVFR FOG
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES
INCLUDING AT KBKW COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IF PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR FOG
POSSIBLE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191413
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NE OHIO WHILE CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN OHIO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE MORE DIURNAL
CU DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE COME
UP...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QPF IN THE NAM/GFS IS CONVECTIVE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERDONE GIVEN THE WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. WILL HOLD ONTO AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP SLOW THE DAYTIME WARM UP...BUT
GIVEN A MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE 60S FOR CLE AND ERI CONDITIONS
ALREADY HAVE A FAVORABLE START TO REACH 80. WITH THE WARM FRONT
STILL STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM YOUNGSTOWN
TO MARION COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK SO EVEN IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE
DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN`T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY 5SM BR
DEVELOPED AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHEN
AND WHERE WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A BOUNDARY
WAS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND AN UPPER LOW WAS NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER. THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND OF LAKE ERIE
AFTER 19Z. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END AROUND DARK.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL NOT MOVE INLAND AS FAR AS
YESTERDAY. IT WILL MAKE IT TO ERI AND MORE THEN LIKELY CLE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191344
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE MENTION OF A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEARLY
EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH TWEAKS TO POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. BASED ON HRRR...MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACR WV AND OH TODAY WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
IS THE GREATEST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO LOW PCPN PROBABILITIES CONTINUE THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 WAVE EMBEDDED IN EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. HI RES WINDOW AND HRRR BOTH ADVERTISING WEAK
FIELDS FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SHOULD BE WIDELY ACTIVITY WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. SINCE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST HALF OF CWA FOR TODAY. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE FORCING
WESTERN HALF. SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER FIELD SUGGESTING A LITTLE
HIGHER PROBABILITY TODAY BUT STILL LIMITED DYNAMICS. HOWEVER
CONTINUED WITH THUNDER CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUDS
ERODING THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF SC DECK MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. WITH PROBABLE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON ...WENT WITH PARTLY
SUNNY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER. EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...FLOW WEAK ALOFT DUE TO OPENED
WAVE AND AREAS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST UP
TO 1.6 INCHES. AS A RESULT, ANY SLOW MOVING CELL COULD PRODUCE
CLOSE TO AN INCH IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL H5 WAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS H5 RIDGE TO ACTUALLY BUILD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. WENT OPTIMISTIC AND DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT OR
BELOW (CONTINUED DIURNAL TREND AS WELL).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST
CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
MIDWEST SYSTEM. SYSTEM SHOULD BE FINALLY CLEARING OUR REGION BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR STRATUS AT DUJ IS THE LOCATION OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN. EXPECT
IT TO LIFT BY MID MRNG...WHILE FKL SHOULD STAY MVFR OR BETTER
GIVEN SUNSHINE HAS SLOWED WESTWARD PROGRESSION. VFR WEATHER IS
PREDICTED THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. ISOLD-SCT STORMS ARE FCST THIS
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. HIGHEST PROB OF
SEEING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO WX THIS AFTN WOULD BE ZZV AND MGW...BUT
EVEN THERE ITS ONLY 30 PERCENT.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT...ESP AT THE TAIL END. DEPENDING
ON WHERE IT RAINS...LOCATIONS COULD SEE IFR FOG DEVELOP MUCH LIKE
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED MSTR ADVECTION FROM THE SSE
WILL RETURN IFR STRATUS TO DUJ/FKL AND POSSIBLY OTHER AIRPORTS AS
WELL.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY SPPRTED
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98/RJK
SHORT TERM...RJK
AVIATION...98
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191135
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...HOWEVER...
ELSEWHERE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...DEPICTING LARGE STRATUS
SHIELD TO THE NORTH AND EAST. UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST LAMP
NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 WAVE EMBEDDED IN EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. HI RES WINDOW AND HRRR BOTH ADVERTISING WEAK
FIELDS FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SHOULD BE WIDELY ACTIVITY WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. SINCE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST HALF OF CWA FOR TODAY. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE FORCING
WESTERN HALF. SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER FIELD SUGGESTING A LITTLE
HIGHER PROBABILITY TODAY BUT STILL LIMITED DYNAMICS. HOWEVER
CONTINUED WITH THUNDER CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUDS
ERODING THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF SC DECK MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. WITH PROBABLE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON ...WENT WITH PARTLY
SUNNY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER. EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...FLOW WEAK ALOFT DUE TO OPENED
WAVE AND AREAS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST UP
TO 1.6 INCHES. AS A RESULT, ANY SLOW MOVING CELL COULD PRODUCE
CLOSE TO AN INCH IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
ALSO...LOOKS LIKE GARRETT...PARTS OF PRESTON AND TUCKER COULD BE
(IN-CLOUD/FOG) THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WIND...VISIBILITIES DOWN.
WILL CARRY AREAS DENSE FOG AND ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL H5 WAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS H5 RIDGE TO ACTUALLY BUILD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. WENT OPTIMISTIC AND DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT OR
BELOW (CONTINUED DIURNAL TREND AS WELL).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST
CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
MIDWEST SYSTEM. SYSTEM SHOULD BE FINALLY CLEARING OUR REGION BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR STRATUS AT DUJ IS THE LOCATION OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN. EXPECT
IT TO LIFT BY MID MRNG...WHILE FKL SHOULD STAY MVFR OR BETTER
GIVEN SUNSHINE HAS SLOWED WESTWARD PROGRESSION. VFR WEATHER IS
PREDICTED THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. ISOLD-SCT STORMS ARE FCST THIS
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. HIGHEST PROB OF
SEEING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO WX THIS AFTN WOULD BE ZZV AND MGW...BUT
EVEN THERE ITS ONLY 30 PERCENT.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT...ESP AT THE TAIL END. DEPENDING
ON WHERE IT RAINS...LOCATIONS COULD SEE IFR FOG DEVELOP MUCH LIKE
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED MSTR ADVECTION FROM THE SSE
WILL RETURN IFR STRATUS TO DUJ/FKL AND POSSIBLY OTHER AIRPORTS AS
WELL.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY SPPRTED
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...98
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191123
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKEFRONT.
THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP SLOW THE DAYTIME WARM UP...BUT GIVEN A
MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE 60S FOR CLE AND ERI CONDITIONS ALREADY
HAVE A FAVORABLE START TO REACH 80. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS A WEAK
AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM YOUNGSTOWN TO MARION COULD SUPPORT
SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
WEAK SO EVEN IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850
TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN`T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY 5SM BR
DEVELOPED AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHEN
AND WHERE WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A BOUNDARY
WAS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND AN UPPER LOW WAS NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER. THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND OF LAKE ERIE
AFTER 19Z. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END AROUND DARK.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL NOT MOVE INLAND AS FAR AS
YESTERDAY. IT WILL MAKE IT TO ERI AND MORE THEN LIKELY CLE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KILN 191051
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACRS PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE...WHITEWATER AND
MIAMI VALLEYS THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED FOG WORDING IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LOCALLY
DENSE SPOTS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PESKY UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
POP ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN
IMPLIED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE OUR AREA A REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
THUS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...IT WILL
ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 19.00Z
CMC AND THE 19.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED
BACK WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO USE. DURING THIS PERIOD...MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A LARGE SCALE MID LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL DEPEND ON ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT MAY EJECT NE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL BLEND. IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION...A MORE
BONAFIDE S/WV AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED.
THESE PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SOME
MVFR CEILING MAY LAST LONGER THAN THE TAFS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED YET AGAIN ON TODAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
TODAY...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT AS EASY TO
PINPOINT. IN GENERAL...THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE 00Z. THINGS WILL BE
KEPT RATHER GENERAL IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARING TO BE AT THE EASTERN (COLUMBUS) TAF
SITES.
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IS ALSO SETTING UP FOR
TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN LOCATIONS WHERE ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER DEPARTS OR DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191028
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANTS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADDS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
COMMENCES. WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 1.4 INCHES...AND THE LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT STORMS TO BE SLOW
MOVERS..AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN. SO FAR COVERAGE HAS
BEEN RATHER SPOTTY...AND GROUND SEEMS ABLE TO HANDLE THE
DOWNPOURS...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES
IN HWO. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV...AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US....AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE MID OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK SOME. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. POP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING AT KBKW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...WHEN SOME LIFTING OF CIGS TO LOW VFR MAY OCCUR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY AFTER
16Z...AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY BY AROUND 00Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AT KBKW. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING...LOCATION OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING ONLY PATCHY/LOCAL MVFR FOG
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES
INCLUDING AT KBKW COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IF PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR FOG
POSSIBLE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191024 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
624 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...HOWEVER...
ELSEWHERE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...DEPICTING LARGE STRATUS
SHIELD TO THE NORTH AND EAST. UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST LAMP
NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 WAVE EMBEDDED IN EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. HI RES WINDOW AND HRRR BOTH ADVERTISING WEAK
FIELDS FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SHOULD BE WIDELY ACTIVITY WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. SINCE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST HALF OF CWA FOR TODAY. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE FORCING
WESTERN HALF. SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER FIELD SUGGESTING A LITTLE
HIGHER PROBABILITY TODAY BUT STILL LIMITED DYNAMICS. HOWEVER
CONTINUED WITH THUNDER CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUDS
ERODING THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF SC DECK MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. WITH PROBABLE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON ...WENT WITH PARTLY
SUNNY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER. EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...FLOW WEAK ALOFT DUE TO OPENED
WAVE AND AREAS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST UP
TO 1.6 INCHES. AS A RESULT, ANY SLOW MOVING CELL COULD PRODUCE
CLOSE TO AN INCH IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
ALSO...LOOKS LIKE GARRETT...PARTS OF PRESTON AND TUCKER COULD BE
(IN-CLOUD/FOG) THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WIND...VISIBILITIES DOWN.
WILL CARRY AREAS DENSE FOG AND ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL H5 WAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS H5 RIDGE TO ACTUALLY BUILD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. WENT OPTIMISTIC AND DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT OR
BELOW (CONTINUED DIURNAL TREND AS WELL).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST
CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
MIDWEST SYSTEM. SYSTEM SHOULD BE FINALLY CLEARING OUR REGION BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY. MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AT ALL PORTS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY
THE ONLY MVFR CLOUDS ARE THOSE LEAKING OVER THE NORTHERN
RIDGES...EFFECT DUJ AND FKL. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT AT THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTS...AND INCLUDE MVFR
FOG AT ZZV AND MGW THROUGH DAWN. AM CONCERNED THAT WE COULD HAVE A
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION...SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WILL LEAVE THAT TO FUTURE UPDATES DUE
TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO DECAY AFTER DAWN RETURNING
ALL PORTS TO VFR. WITH NO REAL WAVE OR BOUNDARY TO SINK MY TEETH
INTO...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP. A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY SPPRTED
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191010
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKEFRONT.
THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP SLOW THE DAYTIME WARM UP...BUT GIVEN A
MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE 60S FOR CLE AND ERI CONDITIONS ALREADY
HAVE A FAVORABLE START TO REACH 80. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS A WEAK
AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM YOUNGSTOWN TO MARION COULD SUPPORT
SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
WEAK SO EVEN IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850
TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN`T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. ON THE 06Z
TAFS BACKED OFF ON THE FOG AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD IS HIGH. ANY FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND MAINLY WELL INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT.
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SO EXPECTING PLENTY
OF CUMULUS INLAND OF THE LAKE. THE CAPE DOES GET HIGHER TODAY AND
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT MFD...CAK AND
YNG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KILN 190937
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
537 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACRS PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE...WHITEWATER AND
MIAMI VALLEYS THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED FOG WORDING IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LOCALLY
DENSE SPOTS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PESKY UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
POP ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN
IMPLIED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE OUR AREA A REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
THUS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...IT WILL
ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 19.00Z
CMC AND THE 19.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED
BACK WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO USE. DURING THIS PERIOD...MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A LARGE SCALE MID LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL DEPEND ON ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT MAY EJECT NE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL BLEND. IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION...A MORE
BONAFIDE S/WV AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRATOCUMULUS AND MID CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED OVER
THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THESE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR...AND SOME DROPS IN VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN NOTED AT NON-TAF
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
KLUK WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR THROUGH MORNING.
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT AS EASY TO PINPOINT. SO...THINGS
WILL BE KEPT RATHER GENERAL IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARING TO BE AT THE EASTERN
(COLUMBUS) TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
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