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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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000
FXUS61 KRLX 310006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...
TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS EVENING E OF OH RIVER PER LATEST HRRR/RUC
RUNS. STILL APPEARS NE KY AND ESPECIALLY SE OH WILL BE IN THE
CROSS-HAIRS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE OF THESE MAY PUSH THE SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN 09-12Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. WITH
SOMEWHAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND PWATS CLIMBING OVER 2
INCHES...DOWNPOURS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND HOW EVERYTHING BEGINS TO
EVOLVE BUT DO NO ANTICIPATE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OH
ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS SE OH BUT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 06Z...WHEN A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. AS SUCH...HAVE SOME MVFR SHRA IN KHTS/KPKB/KCRW TAF SITES
WITH SOME PROB30 GROUPS INCORPORATED TO HANDLE TSRA POSSIBILITY.
A BRIEF LULL LASTING UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH SHRA/TSRA CONT FOR SE OH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR
STRATUS GENERALLY NW OF OH RIVER BUT MAY AFFECT KHTS/KPKB. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 18Z WITH ALL TERMINALS
CODED UP WITH MVFR CONVECTION WITH PROB30 IFR GROUPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...30








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000
FXUS61 KILN 302351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 302351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 302351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 302351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 302320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON








000
FXUS61 KCLE 302320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 302014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTENING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 302014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTENING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 302014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTENING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 302014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTENING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 301913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 301829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 301805
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 301805
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 301741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER POPULATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START
ADVECTING TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER POPULATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START
ADVECTING TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 301731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KILN 301459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 301459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 301459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 301459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KRLX 301434
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER POPULATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START
ADVECTING TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO WILL BE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
DEFINITELY A BETTER PLAY THAN TSRA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY THAT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BKW TO HTS LINE MAY
SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ANY TIME AFTER 00Z SUNDAY HOWEVER. TIMING IN
TAFS IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ADDITIONALLY...ISALLOBARIC
FLOW LOOKS SET TO INCREASE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE RIDGES INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE A FEW RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST. FIRST...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED FLOW MEAN INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MIXING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE AGGRESSIVE RISES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SECOND...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOTH INCREASE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
FROM INDIANA THROUGH MARION COUNTIES...WHILE ALSO MINIMIZING THE
CHANCE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO THINGS...POPS WERE CENTERED IN THE RIDGES
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF THE CWA LARGELY LOWERED BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR
MENTIONING PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS WERE NUDGED UP A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE WELL MIXED
PROFILE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO
THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL
CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO
THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL
CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 301117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KILN 301042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 301042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 301024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
624 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO WILL BE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
DEFINITELY A BETTER PLAY THAN TSRA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY THAT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BKW TO HTS LINE MAY
SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ANY TIME AFTER 00Z SUNDAY HOWEVER. TIMING IN
TAFS IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
624 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO WILL BE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
DEFINITELY A BETTER PLAY THAN TSRA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY THAT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BKW TO HTS LINE MAY
SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ANY TIME AFTER 00Z SUNDAY HOWEVER. TIMING IN
TAFS IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHOWER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WAS OVER THE LAKE AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER NW OH AND POSSIBLY OVER NW PA AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP
THROUGH WESTERN PA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE
MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KILN 300747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 300747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 300747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 300747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KRLX 300747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE
EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD.

HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL
MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD.

INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT
SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND
HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE
90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT
WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST
PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL
FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO
TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO
THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ONLY SLIGHT CHC
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO
OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO
THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ONLY SLIGHT CHC
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO
OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...BUT REALLY CANNOT
TAKE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z GIVEN THE WARM FRONT...AS
WEAK AS IT IS...MOVING NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...BUT REALLY CANNOT
TAKE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z GIVEN THE WARM FRONT...AS
WEAK AS IT IS...MOVING NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...BUT REALLY CANNOT
TAKE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z GIVEN THE WARM FRONT...AS
WEAK AS IT IS...MOVING NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...BUT REALLY CANNOT
TAKE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z GIVEN THE WARM FRONT...AS
WEAK AS IT IS...MOVING NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CRW TRYING TO GO INTO FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SOME DEVELOPING
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVING IN. BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT PREVENT THE FOG FROM FULLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR...OR WILL IT SNEAK DOWN BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO IT REMAINING
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WRINKLE TO DEAL WITH IN
THE FOG FORECASTING TONIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT...AND DO NOT
CARRY MANY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EKN AND CKB LOOK TO STAY CLEAR
THE LONGEST...BUT HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z OR SO. NEITHER
SITE SHOWS SIGNS OF FOGGING JUST YET WITH A 3-4 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. WOULD REALLY LOVE ANOTHER OB BEFORE ISSUING
THESE...BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KILN 300534
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED GROUPING OF SHOWERS RUNNING NNE FROM KDAY WILL CROSS INTO
HARDIN COUNTY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH...NOTED BY A DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WHICH IT DID PRODUCE CLOSER
TOWARDS THE DAYTON METRO AREA.

BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT BY ABOUT 2
DEG OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 300534
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED GROUPING OF SHOWERS RUNNING NNE FROM KDAY WILL CROSS INTO
HARDIN COUNTY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH...NOTED BY A DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WHICH IT DID PRODUCE CLOSER
TOWARDS THE DAYTON METRO AREA.

BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT BY ABOUT 2
DEG OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300528
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. A LONE SHOWER MOVED NORTH BUT REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TAF SITES. EXPECTING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT ERIE AT
THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED IF IT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. EARLIER FORECAST
MENTIONED SOME WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO 40 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO THE
60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS TODAY WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND
WARM MID LEVELS.

LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO THE
60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS TODAY WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND
WARM MID LEVELS.

LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO THE
60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS TODAY WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND
WARM MID LEVELS.

LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO THE
60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS TODAY WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND
WARM MID LEVELS.

LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 300230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING.

730 PM UPDATE...

JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SO FAR THIS EVENING ALONG THE TUG
FORK REGION ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THESE WILL DRIFT N AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH THE WARM FRONT AS TREKS ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL KEEP SCHC POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT AND INSERT ISOLATED COVERAGE WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS.
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
S TO N. WITH SUCH LOW CHANCES...KEPT TAF SITES VOID OF ANY PREDOMINATE
SHRA/TSRA MENTION OR VCTS/VCSH AND PLAY IT WITH AMENDMENTS IF
NEEDED. WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING N SITES DURING THE PREDAWN.
ALLOWED SOME VLIFR FOG FOR A TIME AFTER 06Z FOR KEKN BEFORE
LIFTING WITH THE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS. CARRIED
ONLY MVFR FOG FOR KPKB/KCRW/KCKB AND VFR KHTS/KBKW.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH S TO SW LIGHT
FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES FROM THE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING.

730 PM UPDATE...

JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SO FAR THIS EVENING ALONG THE TUG
FORK REGION ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THESE WILL DRIFT N AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH THE WARM FRONT AS TREKS ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL KEEP SCHC POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT AND INSERT ISOLATED COVERAGE WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS.
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
S TO N. WITH SUCH LOW CHANCES...KEPT TAF SITES VOID OF ANY PREDOMINATE
SHRA/TSRA MENTION OR VCTS/VCSH AND PLAY IT WITH AMENDMENTS IF
NEEDED. WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING N SITES DURING THE PREDAWN.
ALLOWED SOME VLIFR FOG FOR A TIME AFTER 06Z FOR KEKN BEFORE
LIFTING WITH THE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS. CARRIED
ONLY MVFR FOG FOR KPKB/KCRW/KCKB AND VFR KHTS/KBKW.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH S TO SW LIGHT
FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES FROM THE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KILN 300225
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED GROUPING OF SHOWERS RUNNING NNE FROM KDAY WILL CROSS INTO
HARDIN COUNTY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH...NOTED BY A DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WHICH IT DID PRODUCE CLOSER
TOWARDS THE DAYTON METRO AREA.

BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT BY ABOUT 2
DEG OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS IN VC LUK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY MAKE KILN OR
MORESO KDAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE ARE NOT DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK THUNDER...SO THEY SHOULD FALL APART AND DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THESE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER TAF SITES
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN MORE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO OHVLY FROM
THE WEST. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE
AND THEN PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TREKS TOWARDS THE OH/IN/KY CONFLUENCE SUNDAY
MORNING...BEYOND TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS/NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 300225
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED GROUPING OF SHOWERS RUNNING NNE FROM KDAY WILL CROSS INTO
HARDIN COUNTY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH...NOTED BY A DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WHICH IT DID PRODUCE CLOSER
TOWARDS THE DAYTON METRO AREA.

BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT BY ABOUT 2
DEG OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS IN VC LUK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY MAKE KILN OR
MORESO KDAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE ARE NOT DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK THUNDER...SO THEY SHOULD FALL APART AND DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THESE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER TAF SITES
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN MORE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO OHVLY FROM
THE WEST. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE
AND THEN PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TREKS TOWARDS THE OH/IN/KY CONFLUENCE SUNDAY
MORNING...BEYOND TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS/NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 292350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS SPARKING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF METRO
CINCY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND SPREAD THOSE SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS OVER ERN KY
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH SERN CWA AND PORTSMOUTH AREA BUT AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A
DAYTON/CHILLICOTHE LINE BEFORE THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNFAVORABLE WITH
THE EVENING STRATIFICATION.

RAMPED UP POPS IN THE NODE THAT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS - NOT ANY
LIGHTNING ATTM BUT CALLED THEM TSTORMS. SPREAD THE AREA OUTWARD AS
TIME PROGRESSED AND INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES OF STORMS WNW AND ESE
OF WHERE THESE STORMS WERE EXPECTED TO BE IN A FEW HOURS. ABSORBED
THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT INCLUDED THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR...SO LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF THIS STUFF CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT OR TO REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS IN VC LUK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY MAKE KILN OR
MORESO KDAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE ARE NOT DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK THUNDER...SO THEY SHOULD FALL APART AND DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THESE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER TAF SITES
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN MORE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO OHVLY FROM
THE WEST. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE
AND THEN PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TREKS TOWARDS THE OH/IN/KY CONFLUENCE SUNDAY
MORNING...BEYOND TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS/NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 292328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SO FAR THIS EVENING ALONG THE TUG
FORK REGION ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THESE WILL DRIFT N AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH THE WARM FRONT AS TREKS ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL KEEP SCHC POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT AND INSERT ISOLATED COVERAGE WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS.
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
S TO N. WITH SUCH LOW CHANCES...KEPT TAF SITES VOID OF ANY PREDOMINATE
SHRA/TSRA MENTION OR VCTS/VCSH AND PLAY IT WITH AMENDMENTS IF
NEEDED. WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING N SITES DURING THE PREDAWN.
ALLOWED SOME VLIFR FOG FOR A TIME AFTER 06Z FOR KEKN BEFORE
LIFTING WITH THE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS. CARRIED
ONLY MVFR FOG FOR KPKB/KCRW/KCKB AND VFR KHTS/KBKW.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH S TO SW LIGHT
FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES FROM THE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KCLE 292321
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 292321
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS.

DVLPG WARM AND MOIST ADVCNT WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING
OFF AS STEEPLY AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER.

THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS THUS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF ELEVATED SHWRS AND TSTMS ALTHOUGH
PROGGED WIND/FORCING ABOVE THE CAPPED BNDRY LYR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK.

WARMTH...WITH HIGHS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVGS...HUMIDITY...AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WL RTN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION AS THE WARM FRONT JUMPS NWD ON SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN TIMING OF A CONVECTION
SPPRTG SHRTWV...BUT MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT
SEEING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLDS AND
PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD SUNDAY TEMPS CLOSER TO...BUT STILL ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS.

DVLPG WARM AND MOIST ADVCNT WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING
OFF AS STEEPLY AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER.

THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS THUS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF ELEVATED SHWRS AND TSTMS ALTHOUGH
PROGGED WIND/FORCING ABOVE THE CAPPED BNDRY LYR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK.

WARMTH...WITH HIGHS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVGS...HUMIDITY...AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WL RTN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION AS THE WARM FRONT JUMPS NWD ON SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN TIMING OF A CONVECTION
SPPRTG SHRTWV...BUT MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT
SEEING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLDS AND
PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD SUNDAY TEMPS CLOSER TO...BUT STILL ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KCLE 292247
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 292037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
437 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
HAS LIFTED INTO THE TRI-STATE JUST SOUTH OF CINCINNATI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE AT BEST...BUT AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO BE ALIGNED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THIS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 292037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
437 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
HAS LIFTED INTO THE TRI-STATE JUST SOUTH OF CINCINNATI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE AT BEST...BUT AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO BE ALIGNED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THIS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 292037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
437 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
HAS LIFTED INTO THE TRI-STATE JUST SOUTH OF CINCINNATI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE AT BEST...BUT AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO BE ALIGNED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THIS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 292037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
437 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
HAS LIFTED INTO THE TRI-STATE JUST SOUTH OF CINCINNATI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE AT BEST...BUT AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO BE ALIGNED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THIS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

DVLPG WARM AND MOIST ADVCNT WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING
OFF SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER ALNG WITH MORE CLOUDS BY MRNG.

THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS THUS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH PROGGED WIND/FORCING ABOVE THE CAPPED BNDRY
LYR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK.

WARMTH...WITH HIGHS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVGS...HUMIDITY...AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WL RTN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION AS THE WARM FRONT JUMPS NWD ON SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN TIMING OF A CONVECTION
SPPRTG SHRTWV...BUT MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT
SEEING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLDS AND
PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD SUNDAY TEMPS CLOSER TO...BUT STILL ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

DVLPG WARM AND MOIST ADVCNT WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING
OFF SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER ALNG WITH MORE CLOUDS BY MRNG.

THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS THUS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH PROGGED WIND/FORCING ABOVE THE CAPPED BNDRY
LYR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK.

WARMTH...WITH HIGHS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVGS...HUMIDITY...AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WL RTN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION AS THE WARM FRONT JUMPS NWD ON SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN TIMING OF A CONVECTION
SPPRTG SHRTWV...BUT MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT
SEEING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLDS AND
PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD SUNDAY TEMPS CLOSER TO...BUT STILL ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KCLE 291956
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291920
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.  CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE.  HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY... AREA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
S/W TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND...ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE SW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BY 12Z SUN FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP SUNDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSING W/SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A SECOND WAVE
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS. WITHOUT BEING MORE
DETERMINISTIC THAN THE SCIENCE CAN OFFER...DID MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
DEPICT THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
EACH...SURROUNDED BY LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. DID IN FACT
LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN AND WHERE CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION ALMOST UP TO
500MB IN THE S/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN REALITY...PRECISE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS A BIT TOUGH AND MAY CERTAINLY VARY...BUT IN
THE END DO BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME SUNDAY COMES TO AN END MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
A HALF INCH...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
MAX TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING GENERAL LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.

SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY... PROGGED SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING YET SUSPECT THAT
MOST LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT-2AM HEADING INTO MON
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER S/W WITH LESSER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING
FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING OVERNIGHT...BUT
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW...WILL STOP IT DEAD IN ITS TRACKS MOST SITES AT MVFR OR
BETTER. EXCEPTION IS EKN WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG BY 06Z
AGAIN...BUT EVEN THERE...THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE CLOUDS
INCREASE. A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SAT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT...WHILE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.  CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE.  HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING OVERNIGHT...BUT
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SW...WILL STOP IT DEAD IN ITS TRACKS MOST SITES AT MVFR OR BETTER.
EXCEPTION IS EKN WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG BY 06Z AGAIN...BUT
EVEN THERE...THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  A
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
SAT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT...WHILE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.  CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE.  HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING OVERNIGHT...BUT
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SW...WILL STOP IT DEAD IN ITS TRACKS MOST SITES AT MVFR OR BETTER.
EXCEPTION IS EKN WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG BY 06Z AGAIN...BUT
EVEN THERE...THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  A
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
SAT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT...WHILE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.  CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE.  HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING OVERNIGHT...BUT
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SW...WILL STOP IT DEAD IN ITS TRACKS MOST SITES AT MVFR OR BETTER.
EXCEPTION IS EKN WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG BY 06Z AGAIN...BUT
EVEN THERE...THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  A
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
SAT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT...WHILE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.  CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG
AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE.  HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT
THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K
H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER.  HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W
OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS
WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT
BEST.  LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES.

LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION.  LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING OVERNIGHT...BUT
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SW...WILL STOP IT DEAD IN ITS TRACKS MOST SITES AT MVFR OR BETTER.
EXCEPTION IS EKN WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG BY 06Z AGAIN...BUT
EVEN THERE...THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  A
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
SAT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT...WHILE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES HOLDING AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FIRMLY OVER THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
BUT ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ERODES THEM UPON ENTERING. CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS UP
ABOUT 10C AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 5C...THIS WILL KEEP OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ABLE
TO STREAM THROUGH THE AREA.

BY EARLY SAT THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COPIOUS DRY AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SAT...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
LEAD TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...RAMPING UP MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN
TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD BE A TRIGGER FOR ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT SEEING A STORM OR TWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE GENERAL VFR
AND LIGHT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN. DRY AIR AND INCREASED BL FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMATION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE SAT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES HOLDING AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FIRMLY OVER THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
BUT ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ERODES THEM UPON ENTERING. CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS UP
ABOUT 10C AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 5C...THIS WILL KEEP OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ABLE
TO STREAM THROUGH THE AREA.

BY EARLY SAT THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COPIOUS DRY AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SAT...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
LEAD TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...RAMPING UP MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN
TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD BE A TRIGGER FOR ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT SEEING A STORM OR TWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE GENERAL VFR
AND LIGHT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN. DRY AIR AND INCREASED BL FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMATION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE SAT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 291801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 291801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 291801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 291801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK
DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER
HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXPECT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291744
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING ERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A TRANQUIL
DAY FOR THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...BUT OVERALL A SUNNY AND WARM
DAY IS ON TAP...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THURS HIGHS.

WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 10C
AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 5C...THIS WILL KEEP OUR OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...RAMPING UP MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN
TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD BE A TRIGGER FOR ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT SEEING A STORM OR TWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY
NEAR TOLEDO WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291430
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE FOG IS GONE....IT IS NOT MISSED.

6 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF
HIGH CLOUD ADVECTION OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY
HELPED PREVENT FOG AT HTS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH A STEADY LIGHT
WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FOG MIXES OUT THIS MORNING...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z
TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY. SOME
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT...AND CANNOT USE IN PREVAILING. BKW WOULD BE THE
ONLY CANDIDATE AS OF NOW...BUT CANNOT ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR WEAK
CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. AN EXCEPTION
WOULD BE AFTER RAIN AT ANY TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. MAY NEED
HIGHER CHANCES/PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AT BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291430
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE FOG IS GONE....IT IS NOT MISSED.

6 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF
HIGH CLOUD ADVECTION OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY
HELPED PREVENT FOG AT HTS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH A STEADY LIGHT
WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FOG MIXES OUT THIS MORNING...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z
TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY. SOME
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT...AND CANNOT USE IN PREVAILING. BKW WOULD BE THE
ONLY CANDIDATE AS OF NOW...BUT CANNOT ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR WEAK
CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. AN EXCEPTION
WOULD BE AFTER RAIN AT ANY TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. MAY NEED
HIGHER CHANCES/PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AT BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KILN 291418
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1018 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PRIMARILY KCVG AND KLUK. HANDLED THIS
WITH A VCSH FOR NOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER ADDED IN
SOME MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLUK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 291418
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1018 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PRIMARILY KCVG AND KLUK. HANDLED THIS
WITH A VCSH FOR NOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER ADDED IN
SOME MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLUK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291324
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING ERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A TRANQUIL
DAY FOR THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...BUT OVERALL A SUNNY AND WARM
DAY IS ON TAP...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THURS HIGHS.

WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 10C
AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 5C...THIS WILL KEEP OUR OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291324
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING ERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A TRANQUIL
DAY FOR THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...BUT OVERALL A SUNNY AND WARM
DAY IS ON TAP...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THURS HIGHS.

WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 10C
AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 5C...THIS WILL KEEP OUR OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KILN 291132
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PRIMARILY KCVG AND KLUK. HANDLED THIS
WITH A VCSH FOR NOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER ADDED IN
SOME MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLUK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 291132
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PRIMARILY KCVG AND KLUK. HANDLED THIS
WITH A VCSH FOR NOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER ADDED IN
SOME MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLUK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 291031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR THE SKY COVER...IT DID NOT CHANGE THE WORDING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF
HIGH CLOUD ADVECTION OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY
HELPED PREVENT FOG AT HTS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH A STEADY LIGHT
WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FOG MIXES OUT THIS MORNING...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z
TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY. SOME
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT...AND CANNOT USE IN PREVAILING. BKW WOULD BE THE
ONLY CANDIDATE AS OF NOW...BUT CANNOT ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR WEAK
CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. AN EXCEPTION
WOULD BE AFTER RAIN AT ANY TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. MAY NEED
HIGHER CHANCES/PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AT BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF
HIGH CLOUD ADVECTION OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY
HELPED PREVENT FOG AT HTS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH A STEADY LIGHT
WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FOG MIXES OUT THIS MORNING...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z
TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY. SOME
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT...AND CANNOT USE IN PREVAILING. BKW WOULD BE THE
ONLY CANDIDATE AS OF NOW...BUT CANNOT ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR WEAK
CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. AN EXCEPTION
WOULD BE AFTER RAIN AT ANY TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. MAY NEED
HIGHER CHANCES/PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AT BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KILN 290810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
406 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
406 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HTS AND CRW BRINGING A LIGHT WIND AT LAST OB...WHICH WOULD SERVE
TO HOLD ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. STILL KEEP HTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT GOING TO LIFR AS
SUPPORTED BY LAMP GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...LIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NIGHT...WITH EKN EXPECTED TO DROP
THE SOONEST. BKW NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HTS AND CRW BRINGING A LIGHT WIND AT LAST OB...WHICH WOULD SERVE
TO HOLD ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. STILL KEEP HTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT GOING TO LIFR AS
SUPPORTED BY LAMP GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...LIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NIGHT...WITH EKN EXPECTED TO DROP
THE SOONEST. BKW NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KCLE 290721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HTS AND CRW BRINGING A LIGHT WIND AT LAST OB...WHICH WOULD SERVE
TO HOLD ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. STILL KEEP HTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT GOING TO LIFR AS
SUPPORTED BY LAMP GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...LIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NIGHT...WITH EKN EXPECTED TO DROP
THE SOONEST. BKW NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HTS AND CRW BRINGING A LIGHT WIND AT LAST OB...WHICH WOULD SERVE
TO HOLD ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. STILL KEEP HTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT GOING TO LIFR AS
SUPPORTED BY LAMP GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...LIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NIGHT...WITH EKN EXPECTED TO DROP
THE SOONEST. BKW NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KILN 290538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT
TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BUT SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS AND MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT H7-H5
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING
CLOUD COVER IN AND OF ITSELF. A LIFTING MECHANISM NEEDS TO
CONDENSE THIS MOISTURE AND IT IS APPARENTLY NOT HAPPENING WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM EASTERN KY.

ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARDS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST CWA WERE A BIT WARMER THAN WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EAST WIND. DID NOT
ADJUST DOWNWARD ENOUGH WITH FIRST EVENING UPDATE BUT BELIEVE THE
SECOND EVENING UPDATE WILL SHOW A DECREASE OVER METRO CINCY AND
NRN KY COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE S/WV OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM BY
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH EAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 290538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT
TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BUT SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS AND MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT H7-H5
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING
CLOUD COVER IN AND OF ITSELF. A LIFTING MECHANISM NEEDS TO
CONDENSE THIS MOISTURE AND IT IS APPARENTLY NOT HAPPENING WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM EASTERN KY.

ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARDS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST CWA WERE A BIT WARMER THAN WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EAST WIND. DID NOT
ADJUST DOWNWARD ENOUGH WITH FIRST EVENING UPDATE BUT BELIEVE THE
SECOND EVENING UPDATE WILL SHOW A DECREASE OVER METRO CINCY AND
NRN KY COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE S/WV OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM BY
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH EAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN.
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT AKRON CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT
ERIE OR CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290500 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE PRE DAWN...AND THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
SITES CLOSEST TO THE RIVERS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290500 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE PRE DAWN...AND THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
SITES CLOSEST TO THE RIVERS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290500 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE PRE DAWN...AND THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
SITES CLOSEST TO THE RIVERS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290500 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED SKY COVER AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE PRE DAWN...AND THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
SITES CLOSEST TO THE RIVERS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND...HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER NW OH LATE.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO A
FEW OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

730 PM UPDATE...

HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A FEW HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
SETTING IN. HAVE MOST TERMINALS IN IFR OR WORSE FOG EXCEPT
KHTS/KBKW WHERE MVFR VSBY WERE CODED UP FOR KHTS. FOG WILL BURN
OFF 13-14Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS KY AND SW VA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SW OF AREA. MID/HI CLOUDS
OTHERWISE WITH SOME FLAT CU THROWN INTO THE MIX.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

730 PM UPDATE...

HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A FEW HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
SETTING IN. HAVE MOST TERMINALS IN IFR OR WORSE FOG EXCEPT
KHTS/KBKW WHERE MVFR VSBY WERE CODED UP FOR KHTS. FOG WILL BURN
OFF 13-14Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS KY AND SW VA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SW OF AREA. MID/HI CLOUDS
OTHERWISE WITH SOME FLAT CU THROWN INTO THE MIX.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

730 PM UPDATE...

HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A FEW HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
SETTING IN. HAVE MOST TERMINALS IN IFR OR WORSE FOG EXCEPT
KHTS/KBKW WHERE MVFR VSBY WERE CODED UP FOR KHTS. FOG WILL BURN
OFF 13-14Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS KY AND SW VA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SW OF AREA. MID/HI CLOUDS
OTHERWISE WITH SOME FLAT CU THROWN INTO THE MIX.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

730 PM UPDATE...

HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A FEW HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
SETTING IN. HAVE MOST TERMINALS IN IFR OR WORSE FOG EXCEPT
KHTS/KBKW WHERE MVFR VSBY WERE CODED UP FOR KHTS. FOG WILL BURN
OFF 13-14Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS KY AND SW VA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SW OF AREA. MID/HI CLOUDS
OTHERWISE WITH SOME FLAT CU THROWN INTO THE MIX.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30









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