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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191937
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OVER THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS
WILL BE AROUND IN THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IN THE WEST LATE. IT
SHOULD BE THIN. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE LOWS TONIGHT...THE WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT LATER ON TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
SOME CIRRUS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...NO JET DYNAMICS TO HELP
ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...COULD BE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES. WE WILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE...DEFINITELY WARMER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

SOME CIRRUS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE...SO JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD APPROACH
10C. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING AT FIRST AND THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS RUN OF THE MODELS
ARE COLDER AND ARE INDICATING THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN INDICATING THIS...WILL
NOT MENTION A MIX...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER THREAT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THIS CHANGES WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT WILL
LIKELY MODIFY AS TIME GOES ON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO GIVE A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CLEVELAND WEST INTO THE ISLANDS. SO
WILL HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM IN THE MORNING. WINDS COULD
DIMINISH BEFORE THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA HEDGE
ROOM IN CASE THE WINDS HOLD UP. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO
STRONG ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191858
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST. DRY AND
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER. COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT
DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY
IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL








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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 191800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES
EAST. DRY...WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER. A COLD FRONT WITH
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT
DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY
IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 191751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. THE NRN CWFA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND MUCH
COOLER GIVEN ENE AIR FLOW COMING OFF A COLD LAKE ERIE.
THUS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE. AFTER A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT READINGS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL SEEM LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE TO EASTERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW FROM DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191707
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON METARS AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191642
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON MTR`S AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KILN 191504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. THE NRN CWFA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND MUCH
COOLER GIVEN ENE AIR FLOW COMING OFF A COLD LAKE ERIE.
THUS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE. AFTER A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT READINGS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL SEEM LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE KDAY AND KCMH
TAF SITES. THERE ARE BREAKS IN BETWEEN THESE PATCHES AND THEREFORE
DID NOT INCLUDE THE IFR CIGS IN AT THE TAFS. HAVE A SCATTERED
MENTION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT IFR CIGS BRIEFLY MOVE INTO KDAY...KILN...AND KCMH. IN
ADDITION MVFR VSBYS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTH OF KDAY. WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP KEPT KDAY WITH VFR VSBYS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
18 TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW CU WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS IF
FAIRLY DRY...HOWEVER...SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW...IT SHOULD NOT BECOME THAT WIDESPREAD...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL
HANDLE IT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGE AT
THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KRLX 191311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
911 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 191124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 AM UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KILN 191056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT BY MUCH IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE. AFTER A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT READINGS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL SEEM LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE KDAY AND KCMH
TAF SITES. THERE ARE BREAKS IN BETWEEN THESE PATCHES AND THEREFORE
DID NOT INCLUDE THE IFR CIGS IN AT THE TAFS. HAVE A SCATTERED
MENTION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT IFR CIGS BRIEFLY MOVE INTO KDAY...KILN...AND KCMH. IN
ADDITION MVFR VSBYS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTH OF KDAY. WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP KEPT KDAY WITH VFR VSBYS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
18 TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW CU WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191017
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARMUP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SGFNT CHGS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT. PREVIOUS...BLDG HIGH PRES
WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE
SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SGFNT CHGS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT. PREVIOUS...BLDG HIGH PRES
WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE
SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KILN 190826
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT BY MUCH IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE. AFTER A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT READINGS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL SEEM LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SYSTEM SE OF
THE TAF SITES WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARMUP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190654
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP
HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW... WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190654
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP
HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW... WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KRLX 190622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 190548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA. I WILL ADJUST THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 190537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 190510
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD  ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER REMAINS BENIGN OVER THE ILN CWA...A FEW OF
THE DETAILS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND MOST OF THE CWA HAS DROPPED OFF TO CALM CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNSET. THE NEW GRIDS ARE LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO BECOME
TIGHTER AFTER 06Z. WITH THE CALMER WINDS (AT LEAST TO START THINGS
OFF)...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...EVEN THOUGH THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BY
NOW. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THICK...WITH IR TEMPERATURES OF -30 TO -40 CELSIUS. SKY GRIDS WERE
BUMPED UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS MAY NOT
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE VERY
HIGH AND THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON SATL BISECTING ILN/S FA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SE AND PASSES THRU
DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING WEAK
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID
40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
40S SOUTH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP.  EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NAM IS QUICKER WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LATEST RUN
DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP INTO SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.
NAM IS ONLY RUN WITH PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NE
TO NEAR LOWER 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AS WELL AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A RATHER
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL LOCATION AND SUNSHINE
AMOUNT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SYSTEM SE OF
THE TAF SITES WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH 10PM UPDATE...FRONT HAS NEARLY COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NO RAIN HAS
FALLEN. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH
SO FAR THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH 10PM UPDATE...FRONT HAS NEARLY COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NO RAIN HAS
FALLEN. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH
SO FAR THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 190137
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
937 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD  ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER REMAINS BENIGN OVER THE ILN CWA...A FEW OF
THE DETAILS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND MOST OF THE CWA HAS DROPPED OFF TO CALM CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNSET. THE NEW GRIDS ARE LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO BECOME
TIGHTER AFTER 06Z. WITH THE CALMER WINDS (AT LEAST TO START THINGS
OFF)...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...EVEN THOUGH THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BY
NOW. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THICK...WITH IR TEMPERATURES OF -30 TO -40 CELSIUS. SKY GRIDS WERE
BUMPED UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS MAY NOT
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE VERY
HIGH AND THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON SATL BISECTING ILN/S FA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SE AND PASSES THRU
DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING WEAK
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID
40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
40S SOUTH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP.  EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NAM IS QUICKER WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LATEST RUN
DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP INTO SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.
NAM IS ONLY RUN WITH PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NE
TO NEAR LOWER 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AS WELL AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A RATHER
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL LOCATION AND SUNSHINE
AMOUNT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID-EVENING...LEAVING JUST SOME VERY THIN HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
TAFS WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE OVERALL PREVAILING
DIRECTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA. I WILL ADJUST THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE A FEW STRATO-CUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THEY DEVELOP IT
WILL BE FROM AROUND 05Z THROUGH MAYBE 11Z. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO
ALIGN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORT TERM
TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE A FEW STRATO-CUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THEY DEVELOP IT
WILL BE FROM AROUND 05Z THROUGH MAYBE 11Z. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 182318
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
718 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 182230
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD  ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. WEAK
SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON SATL BISECTING ILN/S FA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SE AND PASSES THRU DRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING WEAK FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
40S SOUTH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP.  EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NAM IS QUICKER WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LATEST RUN
DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP INTO SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.
NAM IS ONLY RUN WITH PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NE
TO NEAR LOWER 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AS WELL AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A RATHER
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL LOCATION AND SUNSHINE
AMOUNT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID-EVENING...LEAVING JUST SOME VERY THIN HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
TAFS WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE OVERALL PREVAILING
DIRECTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182211
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
611 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO
ALIGN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORT TERM
TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 182015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL











000
FXUS61 KILN 182002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD  ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. WEAK
SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON SATL BISECTING ILN/S FA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SE AND PASSES THRU DRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING WEAK FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
40S SOUTH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP.  EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NAM IS QUICKER WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LATEST RUN
DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP INTO SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.
NAM IS ONLY RUN WITH PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NE
TO NEAR LOWER 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AS WELL AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A RATHER
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL LOCATION AND SUNSHINE
AMOUNT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND ONLY
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH IT.

OVERNIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181948
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO AS OF THIS
HOUR. IT IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE WIND SHIFT IN SURFACE OBS AND THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE ERIE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS
THE MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAINS WELL
NORTH. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH
CIRRUS REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING
WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE
IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO AS OF THIS
HOUR. IT IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE WIND SHIFT IN SURFACE OBS AND THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE ERIE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS
THE MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAINS WELL
NORTH. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH
CIRRUS REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING
WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE
IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING LITTLE
MORE THAN A SOME CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO AS OF THIS
HOUR. IT IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE WIND SHIFT IN SURFACE OBS AND THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE ERIE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS
THE MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAINS WELL
NORTH. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH
CIRRUS REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KRLX 181747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KILN 181737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE IN THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK IT EVEN
WARRANTS A MENTIONABLE POP. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THOSE WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BUT THEN
REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
MID RANGE POPS. HOWEVER GIVEN TIME OF DAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
LOOKS LIMITED. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK RECOVERY IN
READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND ONLY
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH IT.

OVERNIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND
THE FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. SOME CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN TOL AND CLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS
HAVE QPF...OTHERS ARE DRY. BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE
PICTURES WILL ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES WEST OF CLE. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
HIGHS UP WITH THE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181625
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND
THE FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. SOME CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN TOL AND CLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS
HAVE QPF...OTHERS ARE DRY. BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE
PICTURES WILL ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES WEST OF CLE. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
HIGHS UP WITH THE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181453 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1053 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VERY MEAGER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES...MAINLY NORTH...THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SW
WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181453 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1053 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VERY MEAGER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES...MAINLY NORTH...THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SW
WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181453 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1053 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VERY MEAGER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES...MAINLY NORTH...THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SW
WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181453 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1053 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VERY MEAGER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES...MAINLY NORTH...THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SW
WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KILN 181443
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1043 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE IN THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK IT EVEN
WARRANTS A MENTIONABLE POP. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THOSE WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BUT THEN
REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
MID RANGE POPS. HOWEVER GIVEN TIME OF DAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
LOOKS LIMITED. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK RECOVERY IN
READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER KEPT PRECIPITATION
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHOWERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED THE
POPS OVER NW OH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER. NO
CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 181206
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM UPDATE...UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON
ALL MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL
RUN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT
OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREV
DISCUSSION BELOW..

A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT
WITH LTD MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT MAINLY JUST AN INCR IN CLDS IS
EXPD. DID MENTION SCT SPRINKLES N OF PIT LT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS
THIS AREA MAY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE AVBL MOISTURE...BUT NO MEASUREABLE
RAIN IS EXPD. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ARND SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO WENT
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KILN 181046
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE QUITE
LIMITED AND THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST
WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE IN THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT DO
NOT THINK IT EVEN WARRANTS A MENTIONABLE POP. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BETWEEN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THOSE
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BUT THEN
REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
MID RANGE POPS. HOWEVER GIVEN TIME OF DAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
LOOKS LIMITED. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK RECOVERY IN
READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER KEPT PRECIPITATION
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181022
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 181020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL
MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 180829
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE QUITE
LIMITED AND THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST
WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE IN THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT DO
NOT THINK IT EVEN WARRANTS A MENTIONABLE POP. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BETWEEN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THOSE
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BUT THEN
REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
MID RANGE POPS. HOWEVER GIVEN TIME OF DAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
LOOKS LIMITED. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK RECOVERY IN
READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE MID DAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AT KDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON FRIDAY HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LTD
MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT MAINLY JUST AN INCR IN CLDS IS EXPD. DID
MENTION SCT SPRINKLES N OF PIT LT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS THIS AREA
MAY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE AVBL MOISTURE...BUT NO MEASUREABLE RAIN IS
EXPD. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ARND SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LTD
MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT MAINLY JUST AN INCR IN CLDS IS EXPD. DID
MENTION SCT SPRINKLES N OF PIT LT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS THIS AREA
MAY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE AVBL MOISTURE...BUT NO MEASUREABLE RAIN IS
EXPD. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ARND SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND. TEMPS WL BE
NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM ADVCTN RTN
TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO APRCH LT MON
BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS LOW...IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRY THE MID WEEK PDS...AND MODERATE TEMPS UNTIL
PCPN CHCS AGAIN INCRS WITH APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180638
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
238 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND INDIANA. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND AT
SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM AND AM
EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 180627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL
MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KILN 180601
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OBSERVED
BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT ON THE TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND WITH NO OTHER CHANGES APPARENT IN THE EXPECTED
WEATHER SETUP THROUGH SUNRISE...GRID UPDATES TONIGHT WERE LIMITED
TO ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 50S...LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT STRONG COOLING TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO SHARPEN UP WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NW AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES TO START OUT
MAINLY CLEAR AND THEN WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ILN/S FA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCES IS WEAK TO START OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THRU AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE
POP NORTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE
UPPER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF WEAK FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE.

THIS SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND THEN CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS WHILE ADDING A CHANCE OF
THUNDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ON THURSDAY IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT
POPS ARE BELOW THRESHOLD TO APPEAR IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY IN RELATION TO THE COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE INITIAL HIGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SOLAR RADIATION TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL SLIDE MAINLY INTO THE 60S
ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE THEIR EFFECT. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE MID DAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AT KDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON FRIDAY HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 180532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL
MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 180505
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF
THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST
BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC
POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXP DRY WEA TNGT WITH PASSING HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NXT WK APRCHG
CDFNT. NOT OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT WITH WNDS ABV THE
SFC 20-30KT...SO INCRD LOW TEMPS TO NR SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LTD
MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT WENT WITH A DRY FCST...THOUGH AN INCR IN
CLDS IS EXPD. AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND.
TEMPS WL BE NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM
ADVCTN RTN TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO
APRCH LTR MON BRINGING AN INCR IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS
LOW...IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID WEEK PDS WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...THAT LOW WL BE PROGRESSING
EWD...HENCE UPR OH PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS THE WEEKEND
APRCHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXP DRY WEA TNGT WITH PASSING HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NXT WK APRCHG
CDFNT. NOT OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT WITH WNDS ABV THE
SFC 20-30KT...SO INCRD LOW TEMPS TO NR SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LTD
MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT WENT WITH A DRY FCST...THOUGH AN INCR IN
CLDS IS EXPD. AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND.
TEMPS WL BE NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM
ADVCTN RTN TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO
APRCH LTR MON BRINGING AN INCR IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS
LOW...IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID WEEK PDS WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...THAT LOW WL BE PROGRESSING
EWD...HENCE UPR OH PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS THE WEEKEND
APRCHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXP DRY WEA TNGT WITH PASSING HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NXT WK APRCHG
CDFNT. NOT OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT WITH WNDS ABV THE
SFC 20-30KT...SO INCRD LOW TEMPS TO NR SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LTD
MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT WENT WITH A DRY FCST...THOUGH AN INCR IN
CLDS IS EXPD. AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND.
TEMPS WL BE NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM
ADVCTN RTN TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO
APRCH LTR MON BRINGING AN INCR IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS
LOW...IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID WEEK PDS WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...THAT LOW WL BE PROGRESSING
EWD...HENCE UPR OH PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS THE WEEKEND
APRCHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXP DRY WEA TNGT WITH PASSING HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NXT WK APRCHG
CDFNT. NOT OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT WITH WNDS ABV THE
SFC 20-30KT...SO INCRD LOW TEMPS TO NR SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LTD
MOISTURE AND UPPR SPPRT WENT WITH A DRY FCST...THOUGH AN INCR IN
CLDS IS EXPD. AFT FROPA...EXP HIGH PRES TO BLD IN THRU THE WKEND.
TEMPS WL BE NR SEASONAL LVLS UNTIL SUN...WHEN SRLY FLOW AND WRM
ADVCTN RTN TEMPS TO SVRL DEG ABV AVG. A WK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO
APRCH LTR MON BRINGING AN INCR IN CLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR CHCS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR TUESDAY AS MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
PASSAGE OF A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CDFNT. AMPLIFYING
SHRTWV RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MTN STATES AND PLNS
LOW...IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID WEEK PDS WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...THAT LOW WL BE PROGRESSING
EWD...HENCE UPR OH PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS THE WEEKEND
APRCHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEA IS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WITH SPARSE MSTR AND LTD DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
EFFECT WL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 10PM...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 10PM...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 180152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OBSERVED
BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT ON THE TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND WITH NO OTHER CHANGES APPARENT IN THE EXPECTED
WEATHER SETUP THROUGH SUNRISE...GRID UPDATES TONIGHT WERE LIMITED
TO ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 50S...LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT STRONG COOLING TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO SHARPEN UP WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NW AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES TO START OUT
MAINLY CLEAR AND THEN WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ILN/S FA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCES IS WEAK TO START OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THRU AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE
POP NORTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE
UPPER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF WEAK FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE.

THIS SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND THEN CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS WHILE ADDING A CHANCE OF
THUNDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ON THURSDAY IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT
POPS ARE BELOW THRESHOLD TO APPEAR IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY IN RELATION TO THE COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE INITIAL HIGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SOLAR RADIATION TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL SLIDE MAINLY INTO THE 60S
ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE THEIR EFFECT. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING AND
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS
AROUND 5000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND FORCING IS WEAK. IF ANYONE
SEES A SHOWER IN THE AREA IT WOULD PROBABLY BE NORTH OF I-70...BUT
THE CHANCES THAT ONE OF THE TAF SITES WOULD SEE A SHOWER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180113
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF
THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST
BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC
POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA ON FRIDAY IS LIMITED. ONLY PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS










000
FXUS61 KILN 172349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OBSERVED
BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO SHARPEN UP WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN
CANADA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NW
OHIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NW AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES
TO START OUT MAINLY CLEAR AND THEN WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ILN/S FA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCES IS WEAK TO START OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THRU AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE
POP NORTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE
UPPER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF WEAK FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE.

THIS SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND THEN CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS WHILE ADDING A CHANCE OF
THUNDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ON THURSDAY IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT
POPS ARE BELOW THRESHOLD TO APPEAR IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY IN RELATION TO THE COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE INITIAL HIGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SOLAR RADIATION TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL SLIDE MAINLY INTO THE 60S
ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE THEIR EFFECT. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING AND
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS
AROUND 5000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND FORCING IS WEAK. IF ANYONE
SEES A SHOWER IN THE AREA IT WOULD PROBABLY BE NORTH OF I-70...BUT
THE CHANCES THAT ONE OF THE TAF SITES WOULD SEE A SHOWER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KCLE 172335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL
JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA ON FRIDAY IS LIMITED. ONLY PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS







000
FXUS61 KRLX 172326
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A
COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 13Z FRIDAY.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD FORM OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172225
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A
COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KCLE 172208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL
JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MAYERS










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
534 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY UPDATE NEEDED AT 530PM WAS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
534 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY UPDATE NEEDED AT 530PM WAS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 171955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A COLD FRONT
IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL











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