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000
FXUS61 KILN 290615
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED TONIGHT AND FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
KLUK AND KILN TO DROP TO LIFR WITH MVFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR AFT 12Z.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF A
CDFNT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAFS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE WRN TAFS.
ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD OF TSRA BETWEEN 19-21Z AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY.
HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE CONVECTION
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED. FNT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 290615
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED TONIGHT AND FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
KLUK AND KILN TO DROP TO LIFR WITH MVFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR AFT 12Z.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF A
CDFNT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAFS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE WRN TAFS.
ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD OF TSRA BETWEEN 19-21Z AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY.
HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE CONVECTION
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED. FNT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 290558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST OR ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DECENT CAPE WILL DEVELOP SO THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST MENTION
"VICINITY" FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR KCLE SINCE THE ODDS OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE AIRPORTS DOES NOT SEEM VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE AT KCLE. TYPICALLY THERE
IS ENOUGH SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK TODAY.
A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT SEEMS LIKELY AT KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST OR ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DECENT CAPE WILL DEVELOP SO THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST MENTION
"VICINITY" FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR KCLE SINCE THE ODDS OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE AIRPORTS DOES NOT SEEM VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE AT KCLE. TYPICALLY THERE
IS ENOUGH SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK TODAY.
A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT SEEMS LIKELY AT KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST OR ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DECENT CAPE WILL DEVELOP SO THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST MENTION
"VICINITY" FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR KCLE SINCE THE ODDS OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE AIRPORTS DOES NOT SEEM VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE AT KCLE. TYPICALLY THERE
IS ENOUGH SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK TODAY.
A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT SEEMS LIKELY AT KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST OR ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DECENT CAPE WILL DEVELOP SO THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST MENTION
"VICINITY" FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR KCLE SINCE THE ODDS OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE AIRPORTS DOES NOT SEEM VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE AT KCLE. TYPICALLY THERE
IS ENOUGH SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK TODAY.
A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT SEEMS LIKELY AT KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 290538
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION GONE FOR THE NT...AND FOG ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM.

730 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE FOR THE EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS...BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND
70 DEGREES. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT
IFR FOG FORMATION OVER SOME RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. PKB ALREADY SHOWING MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z AT MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
BKW. ANY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING FOG MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 07/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290425
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290425
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290246
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION GONE FOR THE NT...AND FOG ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM.

730 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE FOR THE EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WANING FOR THE EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. CKB WILL HAVE DENSE FOG UNLIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS THERE...ON ACCOUNT OF A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER EARLIER
THIS EVENING. OTHER SITES MAY TAKE SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE FOG TO
FORM ON ACCOUNT OF LACK OF RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
TO START OFF WITH. BKW WILL HAVE MIST OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF
RAIN TWICE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING FOG MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 07/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290246
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION GONE FOR THE NT...AND FOG ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM.

730 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE FOR THE EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WANING FOR THE EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. CKB WILL HAVE DENSE FOG UNLIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS THERE...ON ACCOUNT OF A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER EARLIER
THIS EVENING. OTHER SITES MAY TAKE SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE FOG TO
FORM ON ACCOUNT OF LACK OF RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
TO START OFF WITH. BKW WILL HAVE MIST OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF
RAIN TWICE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING FOG MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 07/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290246
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION GONE FOR THE NT...AND FOG ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM.

730 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE FOR THE EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WANING FOR THE EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. CKB WILL HAVE DENSE FOG UNLIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS THERE...ON ACCOUNT OF A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER EARLIER
THIS EVENING. OTHER SITES MAY TAKE SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE FOG TO
FORM ON ACCOUNT OF LACK OF RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
TO START OFF WITH. BKW WILL HAVE MIST OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF
RAIN TWICE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING FOG MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 07/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290246
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION GONE FOR THE NT...AND FOG ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM.

730 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE FOR THE EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WANING FOR THE EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. CKB WILL HAVE DENSE FOG UNLIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS THERE...ON ACCOUNT OF A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER EARLIER
THIS EVENING. OTHER SITES MAY TAKE SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE FOG TO
FORM ON ACCOUNT OF LACK OF RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
TO START OFF WITH. BKW WILL HAVE MIST OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF
RAIN TWICE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING FOG MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 07/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KILN 290241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 290241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 290241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 290241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 282356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT FROM
THE SE. WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT IN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND
20Z THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST. -TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW
EAST OF TOL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND
BECOMES JUST N OF W.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 282336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
736 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE FOR THE EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WANING FOR THE EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. CKB WILL HAVE DENSE FOG UNLIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS THERE...ON ACCOUNT OF A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER EARLIER
THIS EVENING. OTHER SITES MAY TAKE SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE FOG TO
FORM ON ACCOUNT OF LACK OF RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
TO START OFF WITH. BKW WILL HAVE MIST OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF
RAIN TWICE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING FOG MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KCLE 282301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
THIN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND ONLY SEEMS TO BE LINGERING NEAR
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282142 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES TO
COVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE
SKY...INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS SLOWLY DECREASING. WILL LEAVE IN
POPS TO COVER THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE. THE DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET...AND PASSING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT A CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282142 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES TO
COVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE
SKY...INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS SLOWLY DECREASING. WILL LEAVE IN
POPS TO COVER THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE. THE DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET...AND PASSING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT A CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 281944
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 281944
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ALL AREAS BY
MORNING. LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. JUST SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE
AREA MAY SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD WORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281908
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING IN THE
VICINITY BUT ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM ALLEGHENY
COUNTY SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281908
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING IN THE
VICINITY BUT ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM ALLEGHENY
COUNTY SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW END VFR CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE N LOWLANDS. HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION FOR
KEKN/KBKW.

EXPECT ANOTHER LIFR TO VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THIS MOIST LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT.

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT INTO PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR BKN
STRATUS BEFORE CU FIELD TAKES OVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WED MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW END VFR CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE N LOWLANDS. HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION FOR
KEKN/KBKW.

EXPECT ANOTHER LIFR TO VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THIS MOIST LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT.

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT INTO PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR BKN
STRATUS BEFORE CU FIELD TAKES OVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WED MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW END VFR CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE N LOWLANDS. HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION FOR
KEKN/KBKW.

EXPECT ANOTHER LIFR TO VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THIS MOIST LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT.

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT INTO PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR BKN
STRATUS BEFORE CU FIELD TAKES OVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WED MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW END VFR CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE N LOWLANDS. HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION FOR
KEKN/KBKW.

EXPECT ANOTHER LIFR TO VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THIS MOIST LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT.

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT INTO PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR BKN
STRATUS BEFORE CU FIELD TAKES OVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WED MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KILN 281752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 281752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 281752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 281752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 281752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 281752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT
DIMINISHING RAINFALL ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE IFR/LIFR FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT HTS...AND PKB.
OTHER SITES EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY
BY 13-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE AREA REMAINS VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER CALM OR LIGHT FLOW. WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR CU WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT
DIMINISHING RAINFALL ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE IFR/LIFR FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT HTS...AND PKB.
OTHER SITES EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY
BY 13-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE AREA REMAINS VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER CALM OR LIGHT FLOW. WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR CU WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT
DIMINISHING RAINFALL ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE IFR/LIFR FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT HTS...AND PKB.
OTHER SITES EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY
BY 13-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE AREA REMAINS VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER CALM OR LIGHT FLOW. WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR CU WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT
DIMINISHING RAINFALL ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE IFR/LIFR FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT HTS...AND PKB.
OTHER SITES EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY
BY 13-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE AREA REMAINS VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER CALM OR LIGHT FLOW. WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR CU WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281508
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER TRICKY NEAR-TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE NAM WHICH KEEPS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...WE COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP AS THE
CLOUD-FREE SKIES WOULD RESULT SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
EXTENDED AS FAR DOWN AS 850MB. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES
UP TO 750 OR 760MB AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO NUDGED UP FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS CLOUD FREE TODAY AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEARING 23C. ALL IN ALL EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE BETTER IF LOWER
DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281508
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER TRICKY NEAR-TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE NAM WHICH KEEPS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...WE COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP AS THE
CLOUD-FREE SKIES WOULD RESULT SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
EXTENDED AS FAR DOWN AS 850MB. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES
UP TO 750 OR 760MB AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO NUDGED UP FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS CLOUD FREE TODAY AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEARING 23C. ALL IN ALL EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE BETTER IF LOWER
DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD SEND SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE AGAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD SEND SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE AGAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD SEND SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE AGAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT DIMINISHING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE IFR/LIFR FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT HTS...AND PKB.
OTHER SITES EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY
BY 13-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE AREA REMAINS VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER CALM OR LIGHT FLOW. WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR CU WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KILN 281036
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 WILL
CONTINUE TO PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. THE FOCUS TODAY WILL BE LATE
DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS SPROUTING SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISHING. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW ALOFT
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...THEN RAIN THEMSELVES OUT.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND BE A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 281036
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 WILL
CONTINUE TO PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. THE FOCUS TODAY WILL BE LATE
DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS SPROUTING SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISHING. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW ALOFT
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...THEN RAIN THEMSELVES OUT.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND BE A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281025
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281025
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PRECIP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TODAY...WHILE THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT NEAR TERM TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PRECIP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TODAY...WHILE THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT NEAR TERM TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PRECIP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TODAY...WHILE THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT NEAR TERM TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
457 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT DIMINISHING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280833
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280833
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280833
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280833
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KILN 280825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 WILL
CONTINUE TO PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. THE FOCUS TODAY WILL BE LATE
DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS SPROUTING SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISHING. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW ALOFT
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...THEN RAIN THEMSELVES OUT.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND BE A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 280825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 WILL
CONTINUE TO PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. THE FOCUS TODAY WILL BE LATE
DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS SPROUTING SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISHING. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW ALOFT
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...THEN RAIN THEMSELVES OUT.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND BE A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING
OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER
PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280721
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
321 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PRECIP OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TODAY...WHILE THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT NEAR
TERM TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280720
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 19C SUPPORT UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280720
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 19C SUPPORT UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280720
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 19C SUPPORT UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280720
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 19C SUPPORT UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KILN 280610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 280610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 280610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 280610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 280610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



000
FXUS61 KILN 280610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE BECOMING VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280438
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE AS ALL PRECIP
HAS FADED WITH FRONT ANALYZED TO BE STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN WV.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MGW...WHICH IS CLOSER TO A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280438
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE AS ALL PRECIP
HAS FADED WITH FRONT ANALYZED TO BE STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN WV.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MGW...WHICH IS CLOSER TO A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280134 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM NIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN RIDGES HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280134 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM NIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN RIDGES HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280134 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM NIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN RIDGES HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280134 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM NIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN RIDGES HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 280130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 280130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 280130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 280130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272357
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE WANE WITH APPROACHING
SUNSET. FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION WAS QUICKLY ON THE WANE AND SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG WHERE IT
HAS RAINED. SO IT IS MOST LIKELY CRW AND PKB.

CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TUE AROUND THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
HTS...CRW AND BKW AND ABSENT FARTHER N PKB...CKB AND EKN. THUS
NOT EXPLICITLY CODED IN ANY OF THE TAFS. NOTE ONLY CRW AND PKB HAD
MEASURABLE RAIN AND AVIATION IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION THIS PAST
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH HTS DID HAVE AVIATION IMPACTS
IN RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.

FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272357
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE WANE WITH APPROACHING
SUNSET. FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING
OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO
ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE.

KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE
IT HAS RAINED.

PREV DISCN...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION WAS QUICKLY ON THE WANE AND SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG WHERE IT
HAS RAINED. SO IT IS MOST LIKELY CRW AND PKB.

CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TUE AROUND THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
HTS...CRW AND BKW AND ABSENT FARTHER N PKB...CKB AND EKN. THUS
NOT EXPLICITLY CODED IN ANY OF THE TAFS. NOTE ONLY CRW AND PKB HAD
MEASURABLE RAIN AND AVIATION IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION THIS PAST
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH HTS DID HAVE AVIATION IMPACTS
IN RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.

FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU
TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KILN 272342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS61 KILN 272342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 272342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 272342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 272342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 272342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KCLE 272332
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS. VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP WITH BR IN THE 10-12Z WINDOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS
THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY EXCEPT NORTHEAST WITH LAKE BREEZES AT CLE/ERI.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272332
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS. VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP WITH BR IN THE 10-12Z WINDOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS
THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY EXCEPT NORTHEAST WITH LAKE BREEZES AT CLE/ERI.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER CONTINUES TO WANE
AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE SKY. EXPECT THESE SCT/ISO SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CU SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALSO DECAY WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER CONTINUES TO WANE
AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE SKY. EXPECT THESE SCT/ISO SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CU SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALSO DECAY WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER CONTINUES TO WANE
AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE SKY. EXPECT THESE SCT/ISO SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CU SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALSO DECAY WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER CONTINUES TO WANE
AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE SKY. EXPECT THESE SCT/ISO SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CU SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALSO DECAY WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER CONTINUES TO WANE
AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE SKY. EXPECT THESE SCT/ISO SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CU SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALSO DECAY WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER CONTINUES TO WANE
AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE SKY. EXPECT THESE SCT/ISO SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CU SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALSO DECAY WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 272042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 272042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 272042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 272042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 272042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 272042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER.

LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE
OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271913
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF
MVFR FOG EXISTS AT MFD...CAK...YNG...AND TOL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG CHANCE
HINGES ON THE MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271913
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF
MVFR FOG EXISTS AT MFD...CAK...YNG...AND TOL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG CHANCE
HINGES ON THE MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST
HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR
NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...KMC



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED AS THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED AS THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA.

SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO
MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT
NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH REALITY. THE PRECIP JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT COME NORTH INTO THE AREA.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF
MVFR FOG EXISTS AT MFD...CAK...YNG...AND TOL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG CHANCE
HINGES ON THE MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH REALITY. THE PRECIP JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT COME NORTH INTO THE AREA.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF
MVFR FOG EXISTS AT MFD...CAK...YNG...AND TOL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG CHANCE
HINGES ON THE MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH REALITY. THE PRECIP JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT COME NORTH INTO THE AREA.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF
MVFR FOG EXISTS AT MFD...CAK...YNG...AND TOL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG CHANCE
HINGES ON THE MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...KMC



000
FXUS61 KILN 271720
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT
OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT
THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION
VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS.

VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE
A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX
TEMPS WERE DECREASED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271720
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT
OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT
THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION
VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS.

VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE
A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX
TEMPS WERE DECREASED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271720
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT
OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT
THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION
VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS.

VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE
A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX
TEMPS WERE DECREASED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR CINCINNATI. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271430
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS
THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME
OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR...FOR
AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD
BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH A LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271430
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS
THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME
OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR...FOR
AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD
BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH A LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 271417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT
OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT
THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION
VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS.

VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE
A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX
TEMPS WERE DECREASED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT
OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT
THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION
VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS.

VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE
A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX
TEMPS WERE DECREASED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT
OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT
THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION
VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS.

VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE
A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX
TEMPS WERE DECREASED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH REALITY. THE PRECIP JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT COME NORTH INTO THE AREA.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH REALITY. THE PRECIP JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT COME NORTH INTO THE AREA.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EXPECTING
CLEARING FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK
IN AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 271058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 271058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST
WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271043
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRE DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR...WITH
PATCHY IFR...FOR AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE
FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT
BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH A LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271021
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
621 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG AT AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN WHERE THE
SHOWERS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN
AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271021
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
621 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE
THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED
ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GIVEN RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT
HAVE HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG AT AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN WHERE THE
SHOWERS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN
AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
518 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRE DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO
MVFR FOG FOR AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH PATCHY IFR
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD
BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
518 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRE DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO
MVFR FOG FOR AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH PATCHY IFR
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD
BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
518 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRE DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER
THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED
GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO
MVFR FOG FOR AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH PATCHY IFR
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD
BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 270846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THE EAST WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL
TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE REGION FOR SHOWER
INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING KCMH/KLCK OUT OF ACTIVITY
TODAY.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 270846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THE EAST WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL
TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE REGION FOR SHOWER
INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING KCMH/KLCK OUT OF ACTIVITY
TODAY.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 270846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE NAM AND GFS WERE FORECASTING THAT THE
CDFNT WOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS STALLING IT OUT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTION OF THE FA TODAY. IT WILL
ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER PERCENTAGES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH POSSIBLY MAKING THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING
BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY
DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE
NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE
ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THE EAST WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL
TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE REGION FOR SHOWER
INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING KCMH/KLCK OUT OF ACTIVITY
TODAY.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 270746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STALLED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT UPPER JET AND VORT
MAX COUPLET ARE USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE
MAINLY PRODUCING VIRGA. WITH JUICY DEW POINTS...AS WE ARE STILL
ENTRENCHED IN A WARM AIR MASS...ANY HEATING TODAY WILL TRANSLATE
INTO INSTABILITY WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW DUMPERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY AXIS OF THESE WOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SE WV MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STALLED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT UPPER JET AND VORT
MAX COUPLET ARE USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE
MAINLY PRODUCING VIRGA. WITH JUICY DEW POINTS...AS WE ARE STILL
ENTRENCHED IN A WARM AIR MASS...ANY HEATING TODAY WILL TRANSLATE
INTO INSTABILITY WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW DUMPERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY AXIS OF THESE WOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SE WV MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KCLE 270703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE THINNING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED ABOUT CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GIVEN
RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT HAVE
HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG AT AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN WHERE THE
SHOWERS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN
AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 270703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECT THESE TO BE THINNING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONCERNED ABOUT CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GIVEN
RAIN SUNDAY. CU RULE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN FOR PC SO WILL NOT HAVE
HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT SKY COVER. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL GO CLOSER TO MET HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL BEGIN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF A KCLE-KMFD
LINE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...DROPPING
OFF IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VS
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG AT AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN WHERE THE
SHOWERS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN
AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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