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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040410
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KRLX 040252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1052 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM
FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOME OVERNIGHT...AND
HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AS A RESULT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY.

800 PM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WV. ONE DEFINED VORT MAX SEEN IN
THE CLOUD FIELDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...IS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
THE DIURNAL FACTOR...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...A BIT LATER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNDER THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FOG
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WET GROUNDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. IN SUMMARY...WILL END SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...KEEP
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND THROW IN SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS AGAIN THE
FAST OUTLIER...SO WILL ACTUALLY KEEP THE FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND WITH INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE
INSERTED SMALL HAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING WATER PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOWERS NOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE CHILLY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REALLY DIFFICULT TRYING TO TRACK THE FORCING AS A LATE SEASON CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. COLD FRONT
PASSES AT THE NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM BREAK...AND THEN IT APPEARS A NEW
AXIS OF DEFORMATION SHOULD FORM ALONG OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ROTATING BACK TO THE NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND...POPS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CHANGE IS THE INCREASE IN THE
POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE. LEANED ON THE NON CONVECTIVE MODELS FOR
THIS SET UP...THAT IS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND LEAVE THE NAM OUT
GIVEN A SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE UPPER LOW.

HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW -20C...SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR IN ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF LOW TOPPED ON THURSDAY. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN 0.80 INCHES...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
QPF A BIT.

GOING BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS IT
SEEMS THE COLD POOL IS BEING UNDERESTIMATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LIFTED TO VFR LATE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE GENERAL TREND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR CIGS TO SETTLE BACK INTO MVFR...WITH IFR
CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW. HOWEVER...CIGS COULD
POP UP TO VFR ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.

VSBY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. IF A SOLID
OVERCAST PERSISTS...THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN. IF HOLES IN THE CLOUD
DECK OCCUR...THEN IFR FOG COULD FORM.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MVFR MORNING CU CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT W TO NW SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS WILL TEND TO VARY OVERNIGHT WITH HOLES
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CIGS. MVFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AND ON THE
OTHER HAND...HOLES IN THE OVERCAST MAY ALLOW IFR FOG TO FORM.

THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 05/04/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1052 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM
FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOME OVERNIGHT...AND
HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AS A RESULT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY.

800 PM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WV. ONE DEFINED VORT MAX SEEN IN
THE CLOUD FIELDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...IS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
THE DIURNAL FACTOR...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...A BIT LATER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNDER THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FOG
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WET GROUNDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. IN SUMMARY...WILL END SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...KEEP
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND THROW IN SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS AGAIN THE
FAST OUTLIER...SO WILL ACTUALLY KEEP THE FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND WITH INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE
INSERTED SMALL HAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING WATER PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOWERS NOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE CHILLY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REALLY DIFFICULT TRYING TO TRACK THE FORCING AS A LATE SEASON CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. COLD FRONT
PASSES AT THE NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM BREAK...AND THEN IT APPEARS A NEW
AXIS OF DEFORMATION SHOULD FORM ALONG OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ROTATING BACK TO THE NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND...POPS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CHANGE IS THE INCREASE IN THE
POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE. LEANED ON THE NON CONVECTIVE MODELS FOR
THIS SET UP...THAT IS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND LEAVE THE NAM OUT
GIVEN A SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE UPPER LOW.

HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW -20C...SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR IN ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF LOW TOPPED ON THURSDAY. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN 0.80 INCHES...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
QPF A BIT.

GOING BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS IT
SEEMS THE COLD POOL IS BEING UNDERESTIMATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LIFTED TO VFR LATE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE GENERAL TREND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR CIGS TO SETTLE BACK INTO MVFR...WITH IFR
CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW. HOWEVER...CIGS COULD
POP UP TO VFR ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.

VSBY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. IF A SOLID
OVERCAST PERSISTS...THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN. IF HOLES IN THE CLOUD
DECK OCCUR...THEN IFR FOG COULD FORM.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MVFR MORNING CU CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT W TO NW SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS WILL TEND TO VARY OVERNIGHT WITH HOLES
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CIGS. MVFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AND ON THE
OTHER HAND...HOLES IN THE OVERCAST MAY ALLOW IFR FOG TO FORM.

THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 05/04/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM



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000
FXUS61 KILN 040157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY MORNING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND FORCING
MOVES EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
THICKEN UP ACROSS THE WEST LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED
INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PESKY VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL LINGER.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
DYNAMIC ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 15Z...AND TO THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 18Z. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. THIS WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY START OUT VFR...BUT
WILL THEN DROP TO MVFR AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. VISIBILITIES WITH
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND
00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 040157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY MORNING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND FORCING
MOVES EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
THICKEN UP ACROSS THE WEST LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED
INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PESKY VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL LINGER.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
DYNAMIC ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 15Z...AND TO THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 18Z. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. THIS WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY START OUT VFR...BUT
WILL THEN DROP TO MVFR AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. VISIBILITIES WITH
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND
00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 040136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP OVER THE AREA WITH BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST ENDS MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL
AREAS BUT BY MORNING IT WILL AGAIN BE OVERCAST. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FORECAST LOWS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY MID
MORNING THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
800 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WV. ONE DEFINED VORT MAX SEEN IN
THE CLOUD FIELDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...IS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
THE DIURNAL FACTOR...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...A BIT LATER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNDER THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FOG
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WET GROUNDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. IN SUMMARY...WILL END SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...KEEP
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND THROW IN SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS AGAIN THE
FAST OUTLIER...SO WILL ACTUALLY KEEP THE FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND WITH INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE
INSERTED SMALL HAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING WATER PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOWERS NOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE CHILLY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REALLY DIFFICULT TRYING TO TRACK THE FORCING AS A LATE SEASON CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. COLD FRONT
PASSES AT THE NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM BREAK...AND THEN IT APPEARS A NEW
AXIS OF DEFORMATION SHOULD FORM ALONG OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ROTATING BACK TOT HE NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND...POPS WILLMODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT. BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CHANGE IS THE INCREASE IN THE
POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE. LEANED ON THE NON CONVECTIVE MODELS FOR
THIS SET UP...THAT IS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND LEAVE THE NAM OUT
GIVEN A SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE UPPER LOW.

HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW -20C...SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR IN ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF LOW TOPPED ON THURSDAY. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN 0.80 INCHES...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
QPF A BIT.

GOING BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS IT
SEEMS THE COLD POOL IS BEING UNDERESTIMATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LIFTED TO VFR LATE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE GENERAL TREND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR CIGS TO SETTLE BACK INTO MVFR...WITH IFR
CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW. HOWEVER...CIGS COULD
POP UP TO VFR ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.

VSBY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. IF A SOLID
OVERCAST PERSISTS...THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN. IF HOLES IN THE CLOUD
DECK OCCUR...THEN IFR FOG COULD FORM.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MVFR MORNING CU CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT W TO NW SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS WILL TEND TO VARY OVERNIGHT WITH HOLES
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CIGS. MVFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AND ON THE
OTHER HAND...HOLES IN THE OVERCAST MAY ALLOW IFR FOG TO FORM.

THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 05/04/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
800 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WV. ONE DEFINED VORT MAX SEEN IN
THE CLOUD FIELDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...IS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
THE DIURNAL FACTOR...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...A BIT LATER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNDER THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FOG
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WET GROUNDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. IN SUMMARY...WILL END SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...KEEP
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND THROW IN SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS AGAIN THE
FAST OUTLIER...SO WILL ACTUALLY KEEP THE FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND WITH INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE
INSERTED SMALL HAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING WATER PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOWERS NOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE CHILLY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REALLY DIFFICULT TRYING TO TRACK THE FORCING AS A LATE SEASON CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. COLD FRONT
PASSES AT THE NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM BREAK...AND THEN IT APPEARS A NEW
AXIS OF DEFORMATION SHOULD FORM ALONG OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ROTATING BACK TOT HE NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND...POPS WILLMODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT. BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CHANGE IS THE INCREASE IN THE
POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE. LEANED ON THE NON CONVECTIVE MODELS FOR
THIS SET UP...THAT IS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND LEAVE THE NAM OUT
GIVEN A SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE UPPER LOW.

HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW -20C...SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR IN ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF LOW TOPPED ON THURSDAY. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN 0.80 INCHES...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
QPF A BIT.

GOING BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS IT
SEEMS THE COLD POOL IS BEING UNDERESTIMATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LIFTED TO VFR LATE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE GENERAL TREND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR CIGS TO SETTLE BACK INTO MVFR...WITH IFR
CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW. HOWEVER...CIGS COULD
POP UP TO VFR ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.

VSBY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. IF A SOLID
OVERCAST PERSISTS...THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN. IF HOLES IN THE CLOUD
DECK OCCUR...THEN IFR FOG COULD FORM.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MVFR MORNING CU CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT W TO NW SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS WILL TEND TO VARY OVERNIGHT WITH HOLES
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CIGS. MVFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AND ON THE
OTHER HAND...HOLES IN THE OVERCAST MAY ALLOW IFR FOG TO FORM.

THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 05/04/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 032337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...FORCING
MOVES EAST...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN HELD DOWN BY THE
CLOUD COVER...HAVE NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED
INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PESKY VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL LINGER.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
DYNAMIC ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 15Z...AND TO THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 18Z. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. THIS WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY START OUT VFR...BUT
WILL THEN DROP TO MVFR AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. VISIBILITIES WITH
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND
00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...WILL LINGER.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY MID
MORNING THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 032310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY MID
MORNING THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032222 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 032025
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...FORCING
MOVES EAST...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN HELD DOWN BY THE
CLOUD COVER...HAVE NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED
INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS...EXPECT TO
SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME MVFR CIGS. AS WE START TO
DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH
OVERNIGHT AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031900
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WV. ONE DEFINED VORT MAX SEEN IN
THE CLOUD FIELDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...IS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
THE DIURNAL FACTOR...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...A BIT LATER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNDER THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FOG
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WET GROUNDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. IN SUMMARY...WILL END SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...KEEP
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND THROW IN SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS AGAIN THE
FAST OUTLIER...SO WILL ACTUALLY KEEP THE FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND WITH INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE
INSERTED SMALL HAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING WATER PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOWERS NOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE CHILLY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 18Z EXTENDING FROM A
CKB-CRW-HTS-CVG LINE HAS JUST ABOUT LOST DEFINITION AS WINDS
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE FOCUSED ALONG
THIS DISSIPATING BOUNDARY....MAINLY AFFECTING HTS AND CRW. WE
LOOK FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z...AND BY 04Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
KENTUCKY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP LOTS
OF CLOUDS IN THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. MIXING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING IS
HELPING TO LIFT THE ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS...AND WILL BE MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS BY AROUND 21Z. HOWEVER...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...GOING WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN LOWLANDS AND IFR
CEILINGS IN MOUNTAINS TO RETURN BY 06Z...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FOG IS A BIG PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT...WHICH
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND HOW MUCH THE WINDS
DECOUPLE. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW ON THE FOG THINKING THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CEILING....BUT INSERTING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS 05Z TO 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z LOW LANDS...AND BY 18Z MOUNTAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER PRIOR TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED
FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 18Z EXTENDING FROM A
CKB-CRW-HTS-CVG LINE HAS JUST ABOUT LOST DEFINITION AS WINDS
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE FOCUSED ALONG
THIS DISSIPATING BOUNDARY....MAINLY AFFECTING HTS AND CRW. WE
LOOK FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z...AND BY 04Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
KENTUCKY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP LOTS
OF CLOUDS IN THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. MIXING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING IS
HELPING TO LIFT THE ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS...AND WILL BE MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS BY AROUND 21Z. HOWEVER...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...GOING WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN LOWLANDS AND IFR
CEILINGS IN MOUNTAINS TO RETURN BY 06Z...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FOG IS A BIG PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT...WHICH
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND HOW MUCH THE WINDS
DECOUPLE. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW ON THE FOG THINKING THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CEILING....BUT INSERTING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS 05Z TO 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z LOW LANDS...AND BY 18Z MOUNTAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER PRIOR TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV/MPK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031743
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 031721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HANG ON TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS...WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND NUDGE DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND
ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL
BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED
LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEATING.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN
HANDLING THE UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT
OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS...EXPECT TO
SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME MVFR CIGS. AS WE START TO
DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031611
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031611
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1119 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED
FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 14Z EXTENDING FROM A
CKB-CRW-HTS-CVG LINE WILL SLOWLY LOSE DEFINITION AS WINDS TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER KENTUCKY AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THRU 12Z...BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN UNDER THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIFT THE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO MAINLY VFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 21Z.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO ALSO BRING SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL EVALUATE THIS FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT. AND IN TURN...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS MAY BE GREATER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV/MPK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1117 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING. EXPECT EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THRU TODAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031402
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER
EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS
HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ.
CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR
TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031402
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER
EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS
HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ.
CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR
TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031343
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITES CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE
AREA IN INDIANA RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN...MOST OF WHICH
IS NOT ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT FALLS APART. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE ONGOING MOST CLOUDY SKIES
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL CUT OFF THE COLD LAKE BREEZE...AND WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 5C
COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 031303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HANG ON TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS...WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND NUDGE DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND
ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL
BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED
LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEATING.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN
HANDLING THE UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT
OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT
TO THE E TODAY. AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS NOSED INTO THE WRN TAFS FROM
INDIANA THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOWLY MIX THE CIGS UP
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THEM TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. FEEL THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER.

WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS
TO SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP H5 TROF ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF A CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO CVG DURING THE 30 HOUR TAF
WINDOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 031303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HANG ON TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS...WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND NUDGE DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND
ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL
BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED
LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEATING.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN
HANDLING THE UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT
OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT
TO THE E TODAY. AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS NOSED INTO THE WRN TAFS FROM
INDIANA THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOWLY MIX THE CIGS UP
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THEM TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. FEEL THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER.

WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS
TO SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP H5 TROF ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF A CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO CVG DURING THE 30 HOUR TAF
WINDOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OUR NORTH
AND BREAKS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN NORTH A BIT EARLIER.

ORIGINAL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS HOLES ACROSS NORTHEAST INLAND COUNTIES. THOSE
AREAS HOWEVER WERE FILLING WITH FOG. ALSO THE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SO EXPECTING HOLES TO FILL.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING IS JUST
TO OUR NORTH BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP JUST
IN CASE. OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 031044
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION TODAY IT WILL BATTLE A MOIST
AIRMASS...SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND AN UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING
SLOWLY NE THROUGH OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT
SHOWER MAY BE FOUND LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND
ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL
BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED
LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEATING.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT
TO THE E TODAY. AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS NOSED INTO THE WRN TAFS FROM
INDIANA THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOWLY MIX THE CIGS UP
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THEM TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. FEEL THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER.

WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS
TO SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP H5 TROF ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF A CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO CVG DURING THE 30 HOUR TAF
WINDOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KCLE 031032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OUR NORTH
AND BREAKS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN NORTH A BIT EARLIER.

ORIGINAL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS HOLES ACROSS NORTHEAST INLAND COUNTIES. THOSE
AREAS HOWEVER WERE FILLING WITH FOG. ALSO THE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SO EXPECTING HOLES TO FILL.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING IS JUST
TO OUR NORTH BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP JUST
IN CASE. OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER
THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS
WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031026
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
626 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE REGION LAST NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO
LATE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CEILING TO LIFT
SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SOME AREAS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT IT WILL THEN BE LIKELY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW
I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS STRATUS DECK DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKE IT IS GOING FAR TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...IN
GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK
OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS
MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE
WITH AN APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MRNG AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030920
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION AND WE ARE SEE MVFR AND IFR CEILING WITH LOW STRATUS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE 06Z DISCUSSION IN
THAT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR IFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE RIGHT BEFORE DAWN BUT THE STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIFT A
BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME
SOON AND CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO THESE ROUND OF TAFS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION
OF IFR CEILINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS...AND ALSO ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KILN 030818
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION TODAY IT WILL BATTLE A MOIST AIRMASS...SIGIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND AN UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE FOUND
LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND
ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL
BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED
LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEATING.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF CONTINUES TO SEND SHEARED WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED BACK TO THE NW OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE DESK IS NOW ONLY AFFECTING KDAY. OTHER TAFS
HAVE BROKEN OUT TO A VFR DECK.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH SUNRISE. CANT RULE OUT SOME STRAY MVFR CIGS
GOING THROUGH...SO CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS. KDAY WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION...STAYING MVFR THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL MIX ANY MVFR CIG UP TO VFR. WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE
FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST
THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWS HOLES ACROSS NORTHEAST INLAND COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS HOWEVER
WERE FILLING WITH FOG. ALSO THE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SO EXPECTING HOLES TO FILL. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING IS JUST TO OUR
NORTH BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE
AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. EVER SO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP JUST IN CASE.
OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER
THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS
WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030657
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR IFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE RIGHT BEFORE DAWN BUT THE STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIFT A
BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME
SOON AND CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO THESE ROUND OF TAFS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION
OF IFR CEILINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS...AND ALSO ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030655
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR IFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE RIGHT BEFORE DAWN BUT THE STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIFT A
BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME
SOON AND CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO THESE ROUND OF TAFS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION
OF IFR CEILINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS...AND ALSO ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KILN 030559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF CONTINUES TO SEND SHEARED WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED BACK TO THE NW OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE DESK IS NOW ONLY AFFECTING KDAY. OTHER TAFS
HAVE BROKEN OUT TO A VFR DECK.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH SUNRISE. CANT RULE OUT SOME STRAY MVFR CIGS
GOING THROUGH...SO CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS. KDAY WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION...STAYING MVFR THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL MIX ANY MVFR CIG UP TO VFR. WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 030559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF CONTINUES TO SEND SHEARED WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED BACK TO THE NW OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE DESK IS NOW ONLY AFFECTING KDAY. OTHER TAFS
HAVE BROKEN OUT TO A VFR DECK.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH SUNRISE. CANT RULE OUT SOME STRAY MVFR CIGS
GOING THROUGH...SO CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS. KDAY WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION...STAYING MVFR THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL MIX ANY MVFR CIG UP TO VFR. WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030530
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 PM UPDATE...LOWERED POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS WITH FRONT NOW THROUGH THE REGION. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

930 PM UPDATE...
WAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA PER PRESSURE FALL / RISE
COUPLET. WITH THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER...THE FLOOD
WATCH...IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAS BEEN CANCELED.

800 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR IFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE RIGHT BEFORE DAWN BUT THE STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIFT A
BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME
SOON AND CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO THESE ROUND OF TAFS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION
OF IFR CEILINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS...AND ALSO ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER
THAT AREA FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6000 FEET. SOME LOWER CEILINGS
WILL PUSH BACK WEST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030452
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1252 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 PM UPDATE...LOWERED POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS WITH FRONT NOW THROUGH THE REGION. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

930 PM UPDATE...
WAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA PER PRESSURE FALL / RISE
COUPLET. WITH THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER...THE FLOOD
WATCH...IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAS BEEN CANCELED.

800 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT START OF PERIOD DESPITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AS THE CAUSATIVE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWERS WANE OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND STRATOCU
ARE LIKELY. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...SO
DENSE FOG IS LESS LIKELY.

THE STRATOCU MAY LOWER TO IFR STRATUS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD....AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS FORE REDUCED RAIN
COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS EVE.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING UPR TROUGH
WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5
DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START WL THUS
DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KILN 030233
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL...MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT. BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER....THESE CEILINGS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE ALL
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL MONITOR IF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE.

ON TUESDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z...AND CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 030233
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL...MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT. BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER....THESE CEILINGS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE ALL
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL MONITOR IF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE.

ON TUESDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z...AND CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030128
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
928 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
WAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA PER PRESSURE FALL / RISE
COUPLET. WITH THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER...THE FLOOD
WATCH...IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAS BEEN CANCELED.

800 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT START OF PERIOD DESPITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AS THE CAUSATIVE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWERS WANE OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND STRATOCU
ARE LIKELY. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...SO
DENSE FOG IS LESS LIKELY.

THE STRATOCU MAY LOWER TO IFR STRATUS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD....AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. WITH MAIN
SHORTWAVE STILL TO THE WEST AND APPROACHING OVERNIGHT...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS STILL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT TO THIS
THINKING. WITH NO INSTABILITY LEFT AND THE THREAT OF THUNDER/HEAVY
RAIN CEASING...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TICK OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MOS
GUIDANCE.

STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS SHALLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHERE CLOUDS CAN BREAK.
H500 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 030116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPDATE IS OUT FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES. THOUGHT EARLIER THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A VORT ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AT KCLE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET BUT ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY NW OHIO. TEMPS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT START OF PERIOD DESPITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AS THE CAUSATIVE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWERS WANE OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND STRATOCU
ARE LIKELY. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...SO
DENSE FOG IS LESS LIKELY.

THE STRATOCU MAY LOWER TO IFR STRATUS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD....AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-008-
     011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT START OF PERIOD DESPITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AS THE CAUSATIVE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWERS WANE OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND STRATOCU
ARE LIKELY. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...SO
DENSE FOG IS LESS LIKELY.

THE STRATOCU MAY LOWER TO IFR STRATUS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD....AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-008-
     011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KILN 022343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL...MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT. BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER....THESE CEILINGS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE ALL
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL MONITOR IF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE.

ON TUESDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z...AND CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 022343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL...MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT. BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER....THESE CEILINGS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE ALL
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL MONITOR IF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE.

ON TUESDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z...AND CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 022315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC HAS A FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER NW OHIO AND INDIANA. CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED
UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING AS A VORT CENTER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OHIO AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 022027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASS THROUGH.  SOME REMAINING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.

AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KILN 021950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND
SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND
IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND
THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON
TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO
NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 021950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND
SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND
IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND
THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON
TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO
NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC HAS A FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER NW OHIO AND INDIANA. CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED
UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING AS A VORT CENTER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OHIO AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY SOME
THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF OVER
QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
HAS LEFT BEHIND A SOLID DECK OF NON VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CIGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS KTOL AND
KFDY HAVE JUST REACHED MVFR STATUS WHILE THE OTHER FIVE SITES ARE
STUCK IN IFR. MEANWHILE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KMFD/KCAK/KYNG THIS EVENING BRINGING
ADDITION MOISTURE TO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE DIFFERS GREATLY BETWEEN IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT TO ENTIRELY
LIFTING THE LAYER TO VFR. SEEING NO TRUE FORCING TO LIFT THE
LAYER AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION... WENT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH SOME OF THE TAFS SITES TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT WITH OTHERS LIFTING INTO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY VFR ESPECIALLY KTOL/KFDY. IN ADDITION SOME THINNING
OF CLOUDS OVER LAKE ERIE MAKE ME BELIEVE THAT KERI MAY JUMP FROM
IFR TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CERTAINLY A MIXED BAG OF CIGS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS EVENING...

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.

AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.

AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A
LATROBE TO NEW MARTINSVILLE CORRIDOR. BEHIND THIS LINE...ORGANIZED
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE UNLIKELY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST
OF THIS LINE...SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO LARGELY
OVERCOME A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 8 KFT AND REALIZE UP TO 1000 J/KG
OF CAPE BASED UPON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR A BIT MORE MODEST
SURFACE MOISTURE THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTING. DAYTIME
INSOLATION HAS LARGELY MADE UP FOR THE LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE BY
ALLOWING AFTERNOON TO TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE 70S ON A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BASIS AT LEAST IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IT IS
ONLY HERE THAT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.
AGAIN TODAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER SUB 10
KFT FREEZING LEVELS AND SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE AREA ABOVE THE
FREEZING LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF HAIL.

HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL NAM BOTH POINT TOWARD
COPIOUS RAINFALL-PRODUCING STORMS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALREADY ISSUED EARLIER FOR
THIS DUE TO 1 AND 3 HOUR GUIDANCE OF ABOUT ONE HALF AND NINE
TENTHS OF AN INCH RESPECTIVELY IN THIS AREA.

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A
LATROBE TO NEW MARTINSVILLE CORRIDOR. BEHIND THIS LINE...ORGANIZED
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE UNLIKELY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST
OF THIS LINE...SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO LARGELY
OVERCOME A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 8 KFT AND REALIZE UP TO 1000 J/KG
OF CAPE BASED UPON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR A BIT MORE MODEST
SURFACE MOISTURE THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTING. DAYTIME
INSOLATION HAS LARGELY MADE UP FOR THE LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE BY
ALLOWING AFTERNOON TO TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE 70S ON A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BASIS AT LEAST IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IT IS
ONLY HERE THAT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.
AGAIN TODAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER SUB 10
KFT FREEZING LEVELS AND SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE AREA ABOVE THE
FREEZING LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF HAIL.

HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL NAM BOTH POINT TOWARD
COPIOUS RAINFALL-PRODUCING STORMS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALREADY ISSUED EARLIER FOR
THIS DUE TO 1 AND 3 HOUR GUIDANCE OF ABOUT ONE HALF AND NINE
TENTHS OF AN INCH RESPECTIVELY IN THIS AREA.

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12 UTC DTX SOUNDING SHOWS
MOIST CONDITIONS TO NEAR 700 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE. FOR THE AFTERNOON WE EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURE A CATEGORY OR SO TO REFLECT THE REDUCTION IN SOLAR
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
HAS LEFT BEHIND A SOLID DECK OF NON VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CIGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS KTOL AND
KFDY HAVE JUST REACHED MVFR STATUS WHILE THE OTHER FIVE SITES ARE
STUCK IN IFR. MEANWHILE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KMFD/KCAK/KYNG THIS EVENING BRINGING
ADDITION MOISTURE TO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE DIFFERS GREATLY BETWEEN IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT TO ENTIRELY
LIFTING THE LAYER TO VFR. SEEING NO TRUE FORCING TO LIFT THE
LAYER AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION... WENT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH SOME OF THE TAFS SITES TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT WITH OTHERS LIFTING INTO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY VFR ESPECIALLY KTOL/KFDY. IN ADDITION SOME THINNING
OF CLOUDS OVER LAKE ERIE MAKE ME BELIEVE THAT KERI MAY JUMP FROM
IFR TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CERTAINLY A MIXED BAG OF CIGS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS EVENING...

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 021736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME SCATTERING OUT IS OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI
AREA. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAST...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE UPSTREAM CLEARING OVER KENTUCKY IS LIKELY
TO WORK IN. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN THIS CLEARED
AREA...WITH KHTS ALREADY UP TO 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHERE THICK
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE. THIS WILL PRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH (WAPAKONETA) AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PORTSMOUTH).

A FEW VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE AN INDICATION THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE CWA RIGHT
NOW. A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOME RAIN APPEARS TO BE A NEAR-CERTAINTY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (LEWIS AND SCIOTO) WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE WEAK...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD WORK INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND
SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND
IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND
THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON
TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO
NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 021736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME SCATTERING OUT IS OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI
AREA. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAST...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE UPSTREAM CLEARING OVER KENTUCKY IS LIKELY
TO WORK IN. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN THIS CLEARED
AREA...WITH KHTS ALREADY UP TO 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHERE THICK
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE. THIS WILL PRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH (WAPAKONETA) AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PORTSMOUTH).

A FEW VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE AN INDICATION THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE CWA RIGHT
NOW. A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOME RAIN APPEARS TO BE A NEAR-CERTAINTY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (LEWIS AND SCIOTO) WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE WEAK...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD WORK INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND
SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND
IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND
THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON
TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO
NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021638
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12 UTC DTX SOUNDING SHOWS
MOIST CONDITIONS TO NEAR 700 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE. FOR THE AFTERNOON WE EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURE A CATEGORY OR SO TO REFLECT THE REDUCTION IN SOLAR
HEATING.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA IS FINALLY GETTING A KICK
SOUTHWARD...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AHEAD OF IT HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME DIURNAL MIX-OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND A HALT IN THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK. IT IS IN THE AREA WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE...AS THE SUN ALLOWS THIS AREA TO WARM UNEVENLY
MUCH...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN AS
YESTERDAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. ALSO...THERE IS A BIT
OF A CAP TO WORK THROUGH TODAY...SO THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY.

AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY
POOLS AHEAD OF IT...HI-RES GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
BULLISH ON THE IDEA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM HAS COME IN LARGELY IN LINE
WITH THIS IDEA...AND BOTH MODEL SYSTEMS PROJECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A RATHER SHORT TIME FRAME WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING JUST
OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING LESS THAN AN INCH AS WELL...A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM
WETZEL COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
UPR OH REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS
FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA IS FINALLY GETTING A KICK
SOUTHWARD...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AHEAD OF IT HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME DIURNAL MIX-OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND A HALT IN THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK. IT IS IN THE AREA WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE...AS THE SUN ALLOWS THIS AREA TO WARM UNEVENLY
MUCH...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN AS
YESTERDAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. ALSO...THERE IS A BIT
OF A CAP TO WORK THROUGH TODAY...SO THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY.

AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY
POOLS AHEAD OF IT...HI-RES GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
BULLISH ON THE IDEA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM HAS COME IN LARGELY IN LINE
WITH THIS IDEA...AND BOTH MODEL SYSTEMS PROJECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A RATHER SHORT TIME FRAME WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING JUST
OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING LESS THAN AN INCH AS WELL...A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM
WETZEL COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
UPR OH REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS
FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1133 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1133 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/MPK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021438
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1038 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP MOISTURE IS PEELING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN CLOUDS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A COHERENT STRATUS DECK FROM BECOMING
ESTABLISHED POST-SUNRISE. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO NO BETTER THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY
POOLS AHEAD OF IT...HI-RES GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
BULLISH ON THE IDEA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM HAS COME IN LARGELY IN LINE
WITH THIS IDEA...AND BOTH MODEL SYSTEMS PROJECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A RATHER SHORT TIME FRAME WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING JUST
OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING LESS THAN AN INCH AS WELL...A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM
WETZEL COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
UPR OH REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS
FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021410
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1010 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF SPRINKLE ISN`T
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT WITH BETTER UL
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NW. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MAY
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM. FOR NOW...I THINK WE ARE SAFE
WITH JUST A CLOUDY SKY. MORE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK UP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS A LOW SKIRTS THE CWA.
NEARLY ALL THE MODELS KEEP THE RAIN TO OUR EAST THOUGH...SO
AGAIN...MOSTLY CLOUDY SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 50`S NEAREST TO THE LAKESHORE AND LOW
60`S FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021410
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1010 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF SPRINKLE ISN`T
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT WITH BETTER UL
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NW. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MAY
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM. FOR NOW...I THINK WE ARE SAFE
WITH JUST A CLOUDY SKY. MORE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK UP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS A LOW SKIRTS THE CWA.
NEARLY ALL THE MODELS KEEP THE RAIN TO OUR EAST THOUGH...SO
AGAIN...MOSTLY CLOUDY SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 50`S NEAREST TO THE LAKESHORE AND LOW
60`S FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 021405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME SCATTERING OUT IS OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI
AREA. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAST...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE UPSTREAM CLEARING OVER KENTUCKY IS LIKELY
TO WORK IN. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN THIS CLEARED
AREA...WITH KHTS ALREADY UP TO 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHERE THICK
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE. THIS WILL PRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH (WAPAKONETA) AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PORTSMOUTH).

A FEW VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE AN INDICATION THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE CWA RIGHT
NOW. A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOME RAIN APPEARS TO BE A NEAR-CERTAINTY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (LEWIS AND SCIOTO) WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE WEAK...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD WORK INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL HELP KEEP A
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW CIGS NORTHWEST
OF I-71 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN LIFT
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MIXING OCCURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE AIM ON THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND AFTER A BREAK IN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...BRING IN A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD BE VFR. IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME FOG FORMATION BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE VARIOUS CLOUD
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT YET VFR LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND THEN BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER THE S/W CROSSES THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021404
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021154
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP MOISTURE IS PEELING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN CLOUDS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A COHERENT STRATUS DECK FROM BECOMING
ESTABLISHED POST-SUNRISE. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO NO BETTER THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY DRY REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
UPR OH REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS
FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER.

ORIGINAL...SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS
JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO
ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS
WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 021055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL HELP KEEP A
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW CIGS NORTHWEST
OF I-71 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN LIFT
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MIXING OCCURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE AIM ON THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND AFTER A BREAK IN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...BRING IN A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD BE VFR. IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME FOG FORMATION BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE VARIOUS CLOUD
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT YET VFR LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND THEN BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER THE S/W CROSSES THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021053
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 021023
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER.

ORIGINAL...SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS
JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO
ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS
WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR DAWN UPDATE TO REMOVE TSTMS AND ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA.

PREVIOUS...SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY NEWD
WITH RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WITH PROGRESS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REIGNITE SHOWERS
AGAIN BY TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THAT PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED
OVR THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA.

STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTED ISOLATED SEVERE/MESO EARLIER EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT CONDITION SHOULD NOT LAST AND INSTABILITY IS
NOT WIDESPREAD...SO NO GENERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
UPR OH REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS
FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020944 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
544 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020930
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020930
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020930
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020930
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020925
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
525 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE MVF TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KILN 020823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING THE CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL
BRING IN COLDER AIR AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING VSBY DECREASE.

LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK INTO WESTERN TAF SITES OF
KDAY AND KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME VFR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT.

IF THE NORTHERLY WIND IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE CLOUD COVER
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO A POTENTIAL FOGGY NIGHT
OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 020823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING THE CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL
BRING IN COLDER AIR AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING VSBY DECREASE.

LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK INTO WESTERN TAF SITES OF
KDAY AND KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME VFR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT.

IF THE NORTHERLY WIND IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE CLOUD COVER
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO A POTENTIAL FOGGY NIGHT
OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020758
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY NEWD WITH RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
WITH PROGRESS. HOWEVER...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
REIGNITE SHOWERS AGAIN BY TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THAT PCPN
SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVR THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA.

STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTED ISOLATED SEVERE/MESO EARLIER EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT CONDITION SHOULD NOT LAST AND INSTABILITY IS
NOT WIDESPREAD...SO NO GENERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
UPR OH REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS
FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS AND FOG RESTRICTIONS N-E OF PIT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MRNG
WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND OCNL IFR IS EXPECTED ERLY THIS MRNG AS ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THRU ARND SUNRISE. AN UPR TROF
SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL THIS EVE ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
322 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS JUST TO
OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO ENCROACH
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS WEST...THEN
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 020557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO TENNESSEE... ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAY FURTHER DIMINISH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
TRAVELED NORTH WITH THE FRONT TO BE NEAR I-70. THOUGH CELLS HAVE
BECOME SCATTERED AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AFTER
SUNSET...STRENGTH HAS PERSISTED DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FLOW
OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING
IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH CONVECTION IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY...A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY RELATIVE TO THE LOCATION OF THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 50
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO TENNESSEE MONDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND MOISTURE...PROVIDING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST UP TO
THE MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF LAGS SFC LOW WHICH IS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER ILN/S SE COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY.
MODELS SOLNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH PCPN ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MARGINAL...SO HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH
THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING THE CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL
BRING IN COLDER AIR AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING VSBY DECREASE.

LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK INTO WESTERN TAF SITES OF
KDAY AND KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME VFR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT.

IF THE NORTHERLY WIND IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE CLOUD COVER
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO A POTENTIAL FOGGY NIGHT
OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 020557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO TENNESSEE... ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAY FURTHER DIMINISH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
TRAVELED NORTH WITH THE FRONT TO BE NEAR I-70. THOUGH CELLS HAVE
BECOME SCATTERED AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AFTER
SUNSET...STRENGTH HAS PERSISTED DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FLOW
OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING
IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH CONVECTION IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY...A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY RELATIVE TO THE LOCATION OF THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 50
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO TENNESSEE MONDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND MOISTURE...PROVIDING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST UP TO
THE MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF LAGS SFC LOW WHICH IS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER ILN/S SE COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY.
MODELS SOLNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH PCPN ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MARGINAL...SO HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH
THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING THE CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL
BRING IN COLDER AIR AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING VSBY DECREASE.

LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK INTO WESTERN TAF SITES OF
KDAY AND KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME VFR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT.

IF THE NORTHERLY WIND IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE CLOUD COVER
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO A POTENTIAL FOGGY NIGHT
OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020543
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...UPDATED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...

ORIGINAL...I KNOW PEOPLE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT BUT THE THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA THERE IS NO WAY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO MODIFY. ALREADY SEEING THE CONVECTION NEAR CHICAGO DISSIPATING
AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT EVEN SEE THUNDER OF LIGHTNING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP WITH BEST
CHANCES MOST OF THE AREA NOT TILL AFTER 06Z. BY DAYBREAK THE
PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HANG ON TO AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER AND THAT IS IT. THE LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL INDIANA CURRENTLY SEEING SEVERE WEATHER ARE 20 PLUS
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AREA. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOSE TO 60 TOWARDS
CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD
BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR HIGHS TO STILL BE CLOSE TO 60. SHOWERS
WILL FILL IN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH A -26C COLD POOL AT 500MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN THE SAME.   LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND.   BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS LIGHTEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE
NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
INCREASED IT AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THAT REGION. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

1030 PM UPDATE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WANED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING APPEAR TO BE OVER. BOTH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...NEAREST THE FRONT
AND WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...AN EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD TREND NOTED
WITH THIS LATE THIS EVENING.

730 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS STRONGEST...HEAVIEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF WARNING AREA...WHERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT WITH THE
SUNSET AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SET UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCN...
BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS
TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW/MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020424
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1224 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...UPDATED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...

ORIGINAL...I KNOW PEOPLE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT BUT THE THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA THERE IS NO WAY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO MODIFY. ALREADY SEEING THE CONVECTION NEAR CHICAGO DISSIPATING
AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT EVEN SEE THUNDER OF LIGHTNING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP WITH BEST
CHANCES MOST OF THE AREA NOT TILL AFTER 06Z. BY DAYBREAK THE
PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HANG ON TO AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER AND THAT IS IT. THE LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL INDIANA CURRENTLY SEEING SEVERE WEATHER ARE 20 PLUS
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AREA. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOSE TO 60 TOWARDS
CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD
BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR HIGHS TO STILL BE CLOSE TO 60. SHOWERS
WILL FILL IN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH A -26C COLD POOL AT 500MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN THE SAME.   LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND.   BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOWERS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OR DEVELOP. IFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND NON-VFR LIKELY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS LIGHTEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE
NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB




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