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000
FXUS61 KILN 062108
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL RH
LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING IN WHICH THE
GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY
TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS
(KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND CURRENT SNOW COVER.
THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE
COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN MORE SO WITH SNOW
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.

DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 062108
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL RH
LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING IN WHICH THE
GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY
TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS
(KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND CURRENT SNOW COVER.
THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE
COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN MORE SO WITH SNOW
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.

DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HAINES






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 062048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE.
THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET. OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM
KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE
UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR
MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS
TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT
LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN
A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE.  TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOWMELT.  PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 062048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE.
THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET. OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM
KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE
UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR
MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS
TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT
LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN
A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE.  TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOWMELT.  PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 062048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE.
THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET. OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM
KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE
UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR
MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS
TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT
LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN
A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE.  TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOWMELT.  PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 062048
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE.
THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET. OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM
KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE
UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR
MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS
TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT
LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN
A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE.  TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOWMELT.  PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 062039
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND.  SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A CURIOUS
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW
FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.  SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING.  DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT.  DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.

CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON.  HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S.  LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW
PACK TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV






000
FXUS61 KRLX 062039
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND.  SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A CURIOUS
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW
FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.  SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING.  DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT.  DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.

CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON.  HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S.  LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW
PACK TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 061831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SNOW FIELD IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA....MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER
NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK
TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE
RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW
FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...JS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 061831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SNOW FIELD IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA....MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER
NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK
TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE
RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW
FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...JS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 061831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SNOW FIELD IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA....MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER
NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK
TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE
RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW
FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...JS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 061831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SNOW FIELD IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA....MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER
NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK
TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE
RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW
FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...JS










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRATO CU CIGS THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. EVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z SATURDAY. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KILN 061726
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 061726
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 061609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER
NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
16Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK TO LIFT
INTO MAINLY A SCT 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THRU THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE
RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW
FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...JS











000
FXUS61 KCLE 061430
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061430
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KILN 061411
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
911 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 061411
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
911 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 061411
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
911 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 061411
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
911 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061144 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING. CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 061144 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING. CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 061144 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING. CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 061144 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING. CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 061144 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING. CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 061144 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING. CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 061141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 061141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 061141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL MONITOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT RECORD LOWS WE ARE BREAKING.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KILN 061140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 061140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 061140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 061140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS
UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE
SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY
AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS
AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL
SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 060910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 060910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 060910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 060910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060905 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060904
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060904
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 060853
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060853
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060853
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 060853
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA





000
FXUS61 KRLX 060838
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A
COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND HTS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 060838
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A
COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND HTS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 060838
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A
COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND HTS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 060838
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A
COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND HTS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 060815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
HYDROLOGY...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
HYDROLOGY...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
HYDROLOGY...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO
RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
HYDROLOGY...KMC








000
FXUS61 KILN 060628
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED...AND WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIME...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS IS
ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS WINTER
HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT WINDS /
CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE
THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5 TO -8
DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES WILL NOT
COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 060628
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED...AND WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIME...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS IS
ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS WINTER
HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT WINDS /
CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE
THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5 TO -8
DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES WILL NOT
COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 060543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 060543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE LAST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE OH RIVER NEARBY HTS
IS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT HTS. REMNANTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES AT BKW. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THESE TWO SITES. HOWEVER...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 03/06/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060522 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE IS A LARGE SNOW
PACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE HOW FAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060522 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE IS A LARGE SNOW
PACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE HOW FAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060522 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE IS A LARGE SNOW
PACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE HOW FAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 060449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 060449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 060243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 060243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 060243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 060243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KILN 060207
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
907 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED...AND WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIME...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS IS
ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS WINTER
HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT WINDS /
CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE
THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5 TO -8
DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES WILL NOT
COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 060207
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
907 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED...AND WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIME...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS IS
ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS WINTER
HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT WINDS /
CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE
THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5 TO -8
DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES WILL NOT
COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 060007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
BAND OF -SN MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
03Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLEARING TO VFR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO VFR OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF WV...WITH CLEARING TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY
06Z...ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS 09-12Z. MOUNTAINS MAY BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR TO VFR...AND MAY NOT LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
BAND OF -SN MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
03Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLEARING TO VFR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO VFR OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF WV...WITH CLEARING TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY
06Z...ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS 09-12Z. MOUNTAINS MAY BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR TO VFR...AND MAY NOT LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 060007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
BAND OF -SN MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
03Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLEARING TO VFR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO VFR OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF WV...WITH CLEARING TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY
06Z...ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS 09-12Z. MOUNTAINS MAY BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR TO VFR...AND MAY NOT LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 060007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
BAND OF -SN MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
03Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLEARING TO VFR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO VFR OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF WV...WITH CLEARING TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY
06Z...ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS 09-12Z. MOUNTAINS MAY BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR TO VFR...AND MAY NOT LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN










000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KILN 052332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW...HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW
DEPARTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...THICK STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST IN THE COLD ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A DISSIPATING TREND TO THESE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OWING TO SOME PERSISTENT
925MB-850MB MOISTURE.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS
IS ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS
WINTER HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT
WINDS / CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5
TO -8 DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES
WILL NOT COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 052332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW...HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW
DEPARTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...THICK STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST IN THE COLD ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A DISSIPATING TREND TO THESE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OWING TO SOME PERSISTENT
925MB-850MB MOISTURE.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS
IS ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS
WINTER HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT
WINDS / CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5
TO -8 DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES
WILL NOT COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 052332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW...HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW
DEPARTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...THICK STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST IN THE COLD ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A DISSIPATING TREND TO THESE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OWING TO SOME PERSISTENT
925MB-850MB MOISTURE.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS
IS ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS
WINTER HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT
WINDS / CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5
TO -8 DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES
WILL NOT COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 052332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW...HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW
DEPARTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...THICK STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST IN THE COLD ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A DISSIPATING TREND TO THESE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OWING TO SOME PERSISTENT
925MB-850MB MOISTURE.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS
IS ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS
WINTER HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT
WINDS / CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5
TO -8 DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES
WILL NOT COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KRLX 052216
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
516 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED THE POP AND SKY GRIDS. SOME CLEARING
STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO ALREADY. ADDED IN
POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CLEARING LIGHT BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY.
IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN WAS
PREDICTED...MAKING FOR A VERY TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THINK CURRENT MIN T FORECAST LOOKS DECENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 052216
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
516 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED THE POP AND SKY GRIDS. SOME CLEARING
STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO ALREADY. ADDED IN
POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CLEARING LIGHT BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY.
IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN WAS
PREDICTED...MAKING FOR A VERY TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THINK CURRENT MIN T FORECAST LOOKS DECENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 052159
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
459 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV







000
FXUS61 KRLX 052159
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
459 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV







000
FXUS61 KRLX 052159
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
459 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV







000
FXUS61 KRLX 052159
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
459 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV







000
FXUS61 KILN 052118
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW...HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW
DEPARTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...THICK STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST IN THE COLD ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A DISSIPATING TREND TO THESE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OWING TO SOME PERSISTENT
925MB-850MB MOISTURE.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS
IS ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS
WINTER HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT
WINDS / CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5
TO -8 DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES
WILL NOT COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 052047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KILN 052047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
DRY AND COLD WEATHER FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE MARCH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD LOWS IN
JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
DRY AND COLD WEATHER FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE MARCH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD LOWS IN
JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 052003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOWPACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THAT DRIFT OVER TAF SITES. BY THE EVENING
HOURS SKIES SHOULD ONLY HAVE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 052003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOWPACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THAT DRIFT OVER TAF SITES. BY THE EVENING
HOURS SKIES SHOULD ONLY HAVE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 051826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES
DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE. AS HEAVY SNOWS PULL AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE EXPIRED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AT 1 PM.

10 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BEGIN TO EXPIRE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AT 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A
CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.

SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE
BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KILN 051809
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 051809
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KILN 051758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-079-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 051758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-079-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THAT DRIFT OVER TAF SITES. BY THE EVENING
HOURS SKIES SHOULD ONLY HAVE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THAT DRIFT OVER TAF SITES. BY THE EVENING
HOURS SKIES SHOULD ONLY HAVE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THAT DRIFT OVER TAF SITES. BY THE EVENING
HOURS SKIES SHOULD ONLY HAVE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THAT DRIFT OVER TAF SITES. BY THE EVENING
HOURS SKIES SHOULD ONLY HAVE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KILN 051641
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1141 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-079-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 051641
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1141 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-079-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 051641
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1141 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-079-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051641
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1141 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-079-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KRLX 051519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1019 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BEGIN TO EXPIRE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AT 18Z.

630 AM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA
VALLEY FROM SE KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND
N MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8
AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 17Z.
AFTER 22Z...MOST SNOW ENDED. CLEARING SPREADING SOUTHEAST BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z FRIDAY.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOONO...AN
DCLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV/30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 051519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1019 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BEGIN TO EXPIRE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AT 18Z.

630 AM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA
VALLEY FROM SE KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND
N MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8
AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 17Z.
AFTER 22Z...MOST SNOW ENDED. CLEARING SPREADING SOUTHEAST BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z FRIDAY.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOONO...AN
DCLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV/30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 051519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1019 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BEGIN TO EXPIRE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AT 18Z.

630 AM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA
VALLEY FROM SE KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND
N MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8
AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 17Z.
AFTER 22Z...MOST SNOW ENDED. CLEARING SPREADING SOUTHEAST BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z FRIDAY.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOONO...AN
DCLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV/30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 051519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1019 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BEGIN TO EXPIRE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AT 18Z.

630 AM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA
VALLEY FROM SE KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND
N MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8
AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 17Z.
AFTER 22Z...MOST SNOW ENDED. CLEARING SPREADING SOUTHEAST BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z FRIDAY.

NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOONO...AN
DCLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV/30








000
FXUS61 KILN 051513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


PREVIOUS...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


PREVIOUS...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


PREVIOUS...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


PREVIOUS...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 051416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WAS FLOATING AROUND AND MORE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPS TO
-20C. OTHERWISE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND THE FROZEN LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA









000
FXUS61 KCLE 051416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WAS FLOATING AROUND AND MORE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPS TO
-20C. OTHERWISE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND THE FROZEN LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 051157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WAS FLOATING AROUND AND MORE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPS TO
-20C. OTHERWISE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND THE FROZEN LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WAS FLOATING AROUND AND MORE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPS TO
-20C. OTHERWISE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND THE FROZEN LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KILN 051145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 051145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KCLE 051134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 051134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 051134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR MILLERSBURG TO CANTON
TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE
PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT SYSTEM EAST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A HALF
DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME PLACES MAY
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD STEADY.
BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW
AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN
EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR.
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO
UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF
3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS
TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW
AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN
EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR.
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO
UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF
3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS
TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW
AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN
EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR.
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO
UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF
3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS
TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW
AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN
EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR.
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO
UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF
3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS
TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW
AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN
EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR.
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO
UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF
3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS
TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW
AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN
EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR.
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO
UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF
3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS
TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 051043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA VALLEY FROM SE
KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR ARE
POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8 AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 051043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA VALLEY FROM SE
KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR ARE
POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8 AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KILN 051008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELLED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELLED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELLED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELLED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 051008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELLED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 051008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. CANCELLED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050939
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND
NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY
WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK
TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS
TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST
NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER
YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. WITH WINDS GOING
CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTHG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050939
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND
NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY
WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK
TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS
TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST
NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER
YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. WITH WINDS GOING
CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTHG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050939
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND
NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY
WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK
TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS
TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST
NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER
YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. WITH WINDS GOING
CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTHG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050939
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND
NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY
WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK
TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS
TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST
NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER
YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. WITH WINDS GOING
CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTHG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050939
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND
NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY
WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK
TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS
TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST
NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER
YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. WITH WINDS GOING
CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTHG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050939
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND
NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY
WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO
PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK
TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS
TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST
NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER
YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.

A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. WITH WINDS GOING
CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTHG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 050915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE
OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT. A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA.
NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR
MILLERSBURG TO CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL
BE FOR THIS TO BE PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT
SYSTEM EAST. EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY
REMAINING LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND A HALF DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME
PLACES MAY FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD
STEADY. BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE
OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT. A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA.
NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR
MILLERSBURG TO CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL
BE FOR THIS TO BE PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT
SYSTEM EAST. EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY
REMAINING LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND A HALF DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME
PLACES MAY FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD
STEADY. BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA





000
FXUS61 KCLE 050915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY POSITION JUST OUTSIDE
OF OUR AREA ALL NIGHT. A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM MARION THROUGH MEDINA AND TO ASHTABULA.
NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN MAYBE A COATING FOR
MILLERSBURG TO CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN. THE TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL
BE FOR THIS TO BE PULLING AWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOVES THAT
SYSTEM EAST. EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PULL OUT TOO AND ANY
REMAINING LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND A HALF DAYS WORTH OF CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STRUGGLE. SOME
PLACES MAY FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND OTHER WILL JUST HOLD
STEADY. BASICALLY TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA




000
FXUS61 KRLX 050832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS
STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4 TO 7 ARND CRW
METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR SNOW FORECAST
GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 050832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS
STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4 TO 7 ARND CRW
METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR SNOW FORECAST
GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 050832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS
STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4 TO 7 ARND CRW
METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR SNOW FORECAST
GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30













000
FXUS61 KRLX 050832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS
STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4 TO 7 ARND CRW
METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR SNOW FORECAST
GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30













000
FXUS61 KRLX 050648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...

5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER
HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR
REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...30/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 050648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...

5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER
HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR
REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...30/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 050648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...

5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER
HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR
REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...30/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 050648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...

5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER
HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR
REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...30/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 050648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...

5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER
HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR
REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...30/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 050648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...

5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER
HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR
REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 03/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...30/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050556
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH 1245AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO HOURLY PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGHER TOTALS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
THAN FORECAST EXTENDING FROM ALLEGHENY INTO ARMSTRONG COUNTY...BUT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS ALREADY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. NOT SURE THAT
SNOW WILL NECESSARILY END MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT
THINK THAT AT A MINIMUM IT WILL KEEP RATIOS FROM BECOMING ANY
HIGHER. MEASUREMENT AT THE NWS OFFICE YIELD SNOW RATIOS SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN 10 TO 1. DID BUMP UP TOTALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SLIGHTLY FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THIS DOES NOT
IMPACT ANY HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE IN THE
CAROLINAS MOVES ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A BAND
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR AREAS IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
SNOWFALL...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH SEEING THE MOST WITH A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. DID CUT
BACK ON SNOW NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP.

SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE EXITS OFF THE
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAYS
HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE
LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS
OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM
THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A
FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT
TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME
CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD
DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT
CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO
STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS
WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS
TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT
TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE
FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONT. THE RESULTING SNOW AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050556
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH 1245AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO HOURLY PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGHER TOTALS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
THAN FORECAST EXTENDING FROM ALLEGHENY INTO ARMSTRONG COUNTY...BUT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS ALREADY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. NOT SURE THAT
SNOW WILL NECESSARILY END MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT
THINK THAT AT A MINIMUM IT WILL KEEP RATIOS FROM BECOMING ANY
HIGHER. MEASUREMENT AT THE NWS OFFICE YIELD SNOW RATIOS SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN 10 TO 1. DID BUMP UP TOTALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SLIGHTLY FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THIS DOES NOT
IMPACT ANY HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE IN THE
CAROLINAS MOVES ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A BAND
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR AREAS IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
SNOWFALL...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH SEEING THE MOST WITH A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. DID CUT
BACK ON SNOW NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP.

SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE EXITS OFF THE
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAYS
HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE
LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS
OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM
THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A
FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT
TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME
CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD
DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT
CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO
STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS
WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS
TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT
TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE
FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONT. THE RESULTING SNOW AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050556
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH 1245AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO HOURLY PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGHER TOTALS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
THAN FORECAST EXTENDING FROM ALLEGHENY INTO ARMSTRONG COUNTY...BUT
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS ALREADY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. NOT SURE THAT
SNOW WILL NECESSARILY END MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT
THINK THAT AT A MINIMUM IT WILL KEEP RATIOS FROM BECOMING ANY
HIGHER. MEASUREMENT AT THE NWS OFFICE YIELD SNOW RATIOS SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN 10 TO 1. DID BUMP UP TOTALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SLIGHTLY FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THIS DOES NOT
IMPACT ANY HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE IN THE
CAROLINAS MOVES ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A BAND
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR AREAS IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
SNOWFALL...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH SEEING THE MOST WITH A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. DID CUT
BACK ON SNOW NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP.

SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE EXITS OFF THE
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAYS
HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE
LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS
OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM
THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A
FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT
TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME
CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD
DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT
CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO
STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS
WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS
TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT
TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE
FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONT. THE RESULTING SNOW AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ049-050-057>059-068.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 050551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL A
HEAVY BAND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ054>056-062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 050551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL A
HEAVY BAND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ054>056-062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 050551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL A
HEAVY BAND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ054>056-062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 050551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL A
HEAVY BAND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ054>056-062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 050551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL A
HEAVY BAND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ054>056-062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 050440
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...COLDER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS TENDED
TO PUSH THE SNOW SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND WAS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN SWRN KNOX COUNTY NOW OUT OF THE
SNOW. STILL THINK SNOW COULD CLIP THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT COME BACK NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANCE BASED ON HRRR. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY TO MAKE A SHARPER
GRADIENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE AREA ALSO LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FAR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL...THE MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALL OF
THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WAVES MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE AND IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. DO NOT THINK THE PRECIP WILL GET VERY NORTH
INTO THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A KMNN TO KMFD TO KYNG LINE
LIKELY DRY. REALISTICALLY ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE U.S.
30 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE COUNTIES
IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT HAVE GONE COMPLETELY DRY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE WORST OF THE SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE
IN SHOULD BE JUST AFTER 00Z AND BY 06Z THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE SE. AS FAR AS ACCUMS GO...MAYBE AN
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OVER SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY WITH NO MORE THAN A
TRACE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. CLEARING IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD
MOST OF THE NIGHT EVEN IN NW OHIO. AS RESULT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL HAVE ONE MORE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO DEAL WITH BEFORE THE
PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES THIS
WAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ONE LAST FRIGID NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUBZERO
LOWS MOST AREAS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AT
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET BUT THE AREA WILL START TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM
KCLE EAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP
FOR NW PA AS THAT IS WHERE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
GIVEN THE CHANGING PATTERN HAVE STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GROUND AND HAS TO BE DEALT WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF A CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE COOL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS REACH
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND COULD TOP OUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. A CLIPPER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY KICK WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS UP SLIGHTLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 050440
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...COLDER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS TENDED
TO PUSH THE SNOW SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND WAS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN SWRN KNOX COUNTY NOW OUT OF THE
SNOW. STILL THINK SNOW COULD CLIP THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT COME BACK NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANCE BASED ON HRRR. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY TO MAKE A SHARPER
GRADIENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE AREA ALSO LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FAR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL...THE MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALL OF
THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WAVES MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE AND IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. DO NOT THINK THE PRECIP WILL GET VERY NORTH
INTO THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A KMNN TO KMFD TO KYNG LINE
LIKELY DRY. REALISTICALLY ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE U.S.
30 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE COUNTIES
IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT HAVE GONE COMPLETELY DRY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE WORST OF THE SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE
IN SHOULD BE JUST AFTER 00Z AND BY 06Z THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE SE. AS FAR AS ACCUMS GO...MAYBE AN
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OVER SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY WITH NO MORE THAN A
TRACE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. CLEARING IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD
MOST OF THE NIGHT EVEN IN NW OHIO. AS RESULT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL HAVE ONE MORE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO DEAL WITH BEFORE THE
PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES THIS
WAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ONE LAST FRIGID NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUBZERO
LOWS MOST AREAS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AT
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET BUT THE AREA WILL START TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM
KCLE EAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP
FOR NW PA AS THAT IS WHERE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
GIVEN THE CHANGING PATTERN HAVE STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE