Home > Products > State Listing > Ohio Data
Latest:
 AFDILN |  AFDCLE |  AFDPBZ |  AFDRLX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUED THE FLURRIES MENTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO...PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE BETTER RETURNS FROM TCMH RADAR ARE
FOUND UNDER THE MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. A FEW STRAY RETURNS OVER
OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES SW OF CINCY HAD ME ERR ON THE
CAUTIOUS SIDE AND INCLUDE FLURRIES FOR THE CINCY METRO AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
WANING DAYLIGHT FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMP TODAY BUT TWEAKED THE FORECAST HOURLY
T/TD TO COME IN LINE WITH OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUED THE FLURRIES MENTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO...PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE BETTER RETURNS FROM TCMH RADAR ARE
FOUND UNDER THE MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. A FEW STRAY RETURNS OVER
OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES SW OF CINCY HAD ME ERR ON THE
CAUTIOUS SIDE AND INCLUDE FLURRIES FOR THE CINCY METRO AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
WANING DAYLIGHT FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMP TODAY BUT TWEAKED THE FORECAST HOURLY
T/TD TO COME IN LINE WITH OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUN MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE SUN MORNING SO WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLY STARTING TO GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM MFD TO CLE WEST TOWARD 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA











000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUN MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE SUN MORNING SO WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLY STARTING TO GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM MFD TO CLE WEST TOWARD 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUN MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE SUN MORNING SO WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLY STARTING TO GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM MFD TO CLE WEST TOWARD 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUN MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE SUN MORNING SO WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLY STARTING TO GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM MFD TO CLE WEST TOWARD 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUN MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE SUN MORNING SO WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLY STARTING TO GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM MFD TO CLE WEST TOWARD 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUN MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE SUN MORNING SO WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLY STARTING TO GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM MFD TO CLE WEST TOWARD 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA










000
FXUS61 KILN 281543
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1143 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO COME OFF OF LAKE HURON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CLEARING OVER NE OHIO. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281132
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE AS THE WARM ADVECTION HAS STARTED.
OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THE THREAT OF A CEILING OVER NW OH
WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND ANY CLOUDS
FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY LINE. CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE MOVED INLAND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND IS NOT
QUITE AS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF LAKE HURON INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE
BEING REPORTED OUT OF THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...IN THE FAR WEST...YOU
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM THE BAND BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD A
LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KILN 281024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 281024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 281024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 280801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 280801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280646
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC











000
FXUS61 KRLX 280646
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 280554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280245
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1045 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280144
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280144
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280010
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED ACCUMS THROUGH THE EVENING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WHERE LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO PUT IN A 1 TO 2 ACCUM
ACROSS NWRN PA. DRY AIR STILL COMING IN THROUGH SO EVENTUALLY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280010
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED ACCUMS THROUGH THE EVENING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WHERE LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO PUT IN A 1 TO 2 ACCUM
ACROSS NWRN PA. DRY AIR STILL COMING IN THROUGH SO EVENTUALLY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KRLX 272330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 272330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 272330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 272330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION
OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE CONDITIONS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION
OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE CONDITIONS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 271955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 271841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRICIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRICIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRICIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRICIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRICIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT
-2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRICIP TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS
GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN
THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED.  WHILE SHOWERS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT.  WHILE THE
BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOST FAVORED.

WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN
COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS
EVENING.  MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT.  USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES
EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT.

WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU
THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR
STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE ON SAT.

NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NW SFC
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.
LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271750
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271750
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271750
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271645
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KILN 271504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 271504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KCLE 271405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THE LAKE WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. SO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH MAY
OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. HOWEVER LORAIN AND MEDINA COUNTY
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THE LAKE WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. SO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH MAY
OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. HOWEVER LORAIN AND MEDINA COUNTY
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271300
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
900 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
MORNING AS CIGS RISE WITH INCREASED MIXING. WITH SCT- BKN
STRATOCU IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALONG WITH STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS CONTINUING
AND STRATO-CU PERHAPS BREAKING AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271300
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
900 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
MORNING AS CIGS RISE WITH INCREASED MIXING. WITH SCT- BKN
STRATOCU IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALONG WITH STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS CONTINUING
AND STRATO-CU PERHAPS BREAKING AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KCLE 271127
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
727 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CLEVELAND AND
ERIE. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE AREA AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERIE WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER A LITTLE OVER NW OH...THEY COULD HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS
MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
COLD UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
SNOW SHOWERS.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND TONIGHT
AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
COLD UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
SNOW SHOWERS.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND TONIGHT
AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 270804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANISTIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADAUL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 270804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANISTIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADAUL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 270804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANISTIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADAUL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 270804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANISTIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADAUL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KCLE 270759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MAINLY OVER EXTREME
NW OH ALL OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY FLURRIES. SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW
WILL NOT MENTION IT BUT WILL MONITOR THE FORECASTS AND ADD IF IT
NEEDED.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MAINLY OVER EXTREME
NW OH ALL OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY FLURRIES. SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW
WILL NOT MENTION IT BUT WILL MONITOR THE FORECASTS AND ADD IF IT
NEEDED.

FOR THE AFTERNOON A TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL CAUSE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SNOW BELT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THERE AND
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 14C BY DARK
AND IT GETS COLDER THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THE DAYBREAK
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 270757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE GENERAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TONIGHT AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270453
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270453
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270453
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270453
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270252
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGED TONIGHT TO OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SMALL CHANGES TO
SKY SOUTHWEST IN GRIDS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS WEAK RETURN MOVING ESE NEAR THE THUMB OF MI.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THIS OVER NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OCCURRING WITH THIS WITH ONLY ONE STATION
REPORTING ANY PRECIP BUT WHEN IT GETS TO THE AREA SURFACE TEMPS
WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING AND THE SOUNDING IS LACKING ICE.
THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST. ALSO
CHANGES SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS WEAK RETURN MOVING ESE NEAR THE THUMB OF MI.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THIS OVER NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OCCURRING WITH THIS WITH ONLY ONE STATION
REPORTING ANY PRECIP BUT WHEN IT GETS TO THE AREA SURFACE TEMPS
WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING AND THE SOUNDING IS LACKING ICE.
THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST. ALSO
CHANGES SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. WESTERN AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WHILE IFR REMAINS AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CAK WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY WHILE
YNG/ERI MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MFVR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ERI
AND POSSIBLY CLE...INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING. NEW MOS AND LAV GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT READINGS BY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO UPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT
18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE
BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE
SKINNY CAPE.

SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS.  FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND
20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/.  THE TRICK
OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED
TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES.  THIS
WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE
RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.  TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF
INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL LINE.

SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z.  MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN.  THE
CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS
INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE
LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING
BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT
18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE
BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE
SKINNY CAPE.

SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS.  FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND
20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/.  THE TRICK
OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED
TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES.  THIS
WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE
RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.  TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF
INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL LINE.

SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z.  MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN.  THE
CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS
INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE
LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING
BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT
18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE
BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE
SKINNY CAPE.

SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS.  FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND
20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/.  THE TRICK
OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED
TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES.  THIS
WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE
RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.  TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF
INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL LINE.

SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z.  MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN.  THE
CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS
INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE
LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING
BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT
18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE
BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE
SKINNY CAPE.

SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS.  FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND
20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/.  THE TRICK
OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED
TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES.  THIS
WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE
RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.  TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF
INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL LINE.

SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z.  MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN.  THE
CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS
INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE
LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING
BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT
18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE
BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE
SKINNY CAPE.

SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS.  FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND
20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/.  THE TRICK
OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED
TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES.  THIS
WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE
RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.  TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF
INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL LINE.

SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z.  MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN.  THE
CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS
INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE
LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING
BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT
18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE
BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE
SKINNY CAPE.

SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS.  FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND
20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/.  THE TRICK
OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED
TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES.  THIS
WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE
RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.  TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF
INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL LINE.

SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z.  MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN.  THE
CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS
INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE
LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING
BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS
FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN
SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK
SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN
SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK
SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING