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000
FXUS61 KILN 260626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 260626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260617
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS MADE RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

WHILE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AT THE
MOMENT...AN EARLY LOOK AT 00Z CANADIAN/GFS/NAM AND 04Z HRRR RUNS
DOES STILL REVEAL SOME RATHER CONCERNING CHARACTERISTICS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...PRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS THEMSELVES...VAST DISCREPANCIES WITH
WARM ADVECTION...TROUBLE WITH WET BULB PROCESSES...NOT TO MENTION
THE MORE EVERYDAY ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND QPF PLACEMENT. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE ADEQUATELY CHEWED THROUGH DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS SHIFT...HOWEVER LATER START TIMES DO LOOK BETTER
AT THE MOMENT. AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT...AS IN REALLY NOT MUCH
LONGER THAN 6 HOURS ANYWHERE...AND LIKELY ONLY MAYBE 2-3 HOURS IN
PITTSBURGH ITSELF. COMBINING THAT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT WITHOUT
INTENSE SNOW RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE RIDGES MAY BE
TOUGH. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AND WET
BULB PROFILES MAY WELL START OUT THE DAY TOMORROW A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALL OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MULLED INTO THE
FULL UPDATE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260617
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS MADE RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

WHILE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AT THE
MOMENT...AN EARLY LOOK AT 00Z CANADIAN/GFS/NAM AND 04Z HRRR RUNS
DOES STILL REVEAL SOME RATHER CONCERNING CHARACTERISTICS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...PRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS THEMSELVES...VAST DISCREPANCIES WITH
WARM ADVECTION...TROUBLE WITH WET BULB PROCESSES...NOT TO MENTION
THE MORE EVERYDAY ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND QPF PLACEMENT. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE ADEQUATELY CHEWED THROUGH DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS SHIFT...HOWEVER LATER START TIMES DO LOOK BETTER
AT THE MOMENT. AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT...AS IN REALLY NOT MUCH
LONGER THAN 6 HOURS ANYWHERE...AND LIKELY ONLY MAYBE 2-3 HOURS IN
PITTSBURGH ITSELF. COMBINING THAT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT WITHOUT
INTENSE SNOW RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE RIDGES MAY BE
TOUGH. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AND WET
BULB PROFILES MAY WELL START OUT THE DAY TOMORROW A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALL OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MULLED INTO THE
FULL UPDATE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 260550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN...EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z THIS MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT PCPN IS FAR AWAY SOUTHWEST TO START
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS PCPN
COULD EXTEND FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL WV WITH LESS OR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. THE
EXPECTED PCPN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO FAST WHEN
COMPARED WITH DOPPLER RADAR. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN
WHICH SHOULD START AS RAIN BY 09-12Z...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO SNOW BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
09-12Z INTO MVFR/IFR WHILE PCPN REMAINS LIQUID OR MIXED WITH SNOW.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES...DECREASING WEST INTO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...ALONG THE EAST COAST.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 11/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 260416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1116 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS ACROSS NE OH ERODING AS CIRRUS DECK MOVES
OVER AREA...BUT LATEST HRR MODELS SHOWS STRATUS DECK SCATTERING
OUT FOR A SHORT TIME THEN FILLING BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. DID NOT
MENTION -SN ACROSS NE OHIO TODAY AS DOUBTS AS WHETHER THE PRECIP
ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. IF IT DOES REACH NE
OHIO DOUBT THAT IT WOULD BE MUCH WORSE THAN FLURRIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 260416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1116 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS ACROSS NE OH ERODING AS CIRRUS DECK MOVES
OVER AREA...BUT LATEST HRR MODELS SHOWS STRATUS DECK SCATTERING
OUT FOR A SHORT TIME THEN FILLING BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. DID NOT
MENTION -SN ACROSS NE OHIO TODAY AS DOUBTS AS WHETHER THE PRECIP
ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. IF IT DOES REACH NE
OHIO DOUBT THAT IT WOULD BE MUCH WORSE THAN FLURRIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1116 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS ACROSS NE OH ERODING AS CIRRUS DECK MOVES
OVER AREA...BUT LATEST HRR MODELS SHOWS STRATUS DECK SCATTERING
OUT FOR A SHORT TIME THEN FILLING BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. DID NOT
MENTION -SN ACROSS NE OHIO TODAY AS DOUBTS AS WHETHER THE PRECIP
ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. IF IT DOES REACH NE
OHIO DOUBT THAT IT WOULD BE MUCH WORSE THAN FLURRIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 260416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1116 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS ACROSS NE OH ERODING AS CIRRUS DECK MOVES
OVER AREA...BUT LATEST HRR MODELS SHOWS STRATUS DECK SCATTERING
OUT FOR A SHORT TIME THEN FILLING BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. DID NOT
MENTION -SN ACROSS NE OHIO TODAY AS DOUBTS AS WHETHER THE PRECIP
ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. IF IT DOES REACH NE
OHIO DOUBT THAT IT WOULD BE MUCH WORSE THAN FLURRIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260304
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 260304
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260257
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 945PM UPDATE...HAVE SLOWED UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS IN THE RIDGES CONSIDERING 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR SHOW A MUCH
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS CHANGE IS
MINOR ENOUGH THAT NO CHANGES TO THE START OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
WAS MADE. OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAS
DONE TO BETTER REFLECT CONFIDENCE OF WHERE SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SNOWFALL FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260257
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 945PM UPDATE...HAVE SLOWED UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS IN THE RIDGES CONSIDERING 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR SHOW A MUCH
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS CHANGE IS
MINOR ENOUGH THAT NO CHANGES TO THE START OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
WAS MADE. OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAS
DONE TO BETTER REFLECT CONFIDENCE OF WHERE SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SNOWFALL FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 260252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 260252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 260252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 260252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 260226
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT...FELT NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF
THE HEADLINES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THUS LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS...AND THAT PERIOD OF GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND THUS
HEAVIER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DURATION...WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED. WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES AS IS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH/EAST TO NORTH/WEST AS A LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OUT IN
THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH
RAIN BELOW 2500 FEET ELEVATION 06-12Z...WITH SNOW AREA WIDE AFTER
12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY AFTER
12-15Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND VA. SOME GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 11/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 252353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH/EAST TO NORTH/WEST AS A LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OUT IN
THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH
RAIN BELOW 2500 FEET ELEVATION 06-12Z...WITH SNOW AREA WIDE AFTER
12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY AFTER
12-15Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND VA. SOME GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KILN 252349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 252315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 252315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 252315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 252315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252306
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER
TRENDS...AS OVERCAST SKIES ARE CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252306
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER
TRENDS...AS OVERCAST SKIES ARE CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 252240
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
540 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 252240
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
540 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 252120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KRLX 252103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCKB AND
KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THOUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30







000
FXUS61 KRLX 252103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCKB AND
KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THOUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS61 KCLE 252059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 252059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 252059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 252059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 251958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO
THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCKB AND KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR
STRATUS MAY LINGER THOUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 251826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
116 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR
CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z
NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP
FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KCLE 251800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIP MENTION REMAINS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. NW OH/TOLEDO WILL NOT RISE ANY HIGHER
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A BLANKET OF CLOUDS. OTHERS ARE AT
THEIR HIGH NOW TOO.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIP MENTION REMAINS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. NW OH/TOLEDO WILL NOT RISE ANY HIGHER
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A BLANKET OF CLOUDS. OTHERS ARE AT
THEIR HIGH NOW TOO.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIP MENTION REMAINS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. NW OH/TOLEDO WILL NOT RISE ANY HIGHER
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A BLANKET OF CLOUDS. OTHERS ARE AT
THEIR HIGH NOW TOO.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIP MENTION REMAINS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. NW OH/TOLEDO WILL NOT RISE ANY HIGHER
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A BLANKET OF CLOUDS. OTHERS ARE AT
THEIR HIGH NOW TOO.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KCLE 251745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MOST AREAS. HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM NW OH
AND HAVE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 251745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MOST AREAS. HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM NW OH
AND HAVE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS
TRENDING LOWER A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...AND MVFR CEILINGS
015-025 WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KILN 251741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 251741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251421
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR
CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z
NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP
FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251421
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR
CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z
NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP
FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KILN 251406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 251406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 251406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 251406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251307
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO BRING STRATUS DECK INTO FAR NORTHERN
I-80 CORRIDOR AS AREA OF CLOUDS UNDER GREAT LAKES LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251307
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO BRING STRATUS DECK INTO FAR NORTHERN
I-80 CORRIDOR AS AREA OF CLOUDS UNDER GREAT LAKES LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 251120
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MOST AREAS. HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM NW OH
AND HAVE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS AT AROUND 2500 FEET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND LIFT TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 251120
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MOST AREAS. HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM NW OH
AND HAVE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS AT AROUND 2500 FEET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND LIFT TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
527 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 251027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
527 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KILN 250926
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT LEST
SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT LEST
SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT LEST
SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT LEST
SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KILN 250926
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KRLX 250912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 250912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 250812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
WERE DECREASING OVER THE INLAND AREAS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT
OVER NW OH. LOW CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
WERE DECREASING OVER THE INLAND AREAS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT
OVER NW OH. LOW CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
WERE DECREASING OVER THE INLAND AREAS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT
OVER NW OH. LOW CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
WERE DECREASING OVER THE INLAND AREAS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT
OVER NW OH. LOW CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC OBS SUGGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AT THE SAME TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUSTS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS AT OR
BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 250800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC OBS SUGGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AT THE SAME TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUSTS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS AT OR
BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KILN 250611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC OBS SUGGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AT THE SAME TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUSTS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS AT OR
BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 250525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC OBS SUGGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AT THE SAME TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUSTS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS AT OR
BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 250525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC OBS SUGGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AT THE SAME TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUSTS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS AT OR
BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 250525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC OBS SUGGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AT THE SAME TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUSTS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS AT OR
BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000
FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS TOTAL COLUMN
MOMENTUM STARTS TO EBB A BIT. SOUNDINGS STILL REMAIN RATHER
UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...A FEW GUSTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...SAID DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TREMENDOUSLY TO ACCOMMODATE SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS EXPECTED
DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CWA.

CONTINUE STRONG MIXING ALONG WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT MORE THAN WOULD BE NORMAL
UNDER COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...HIGHS SEEM POISED TO TAKE A RUN
AT NORMAL LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 250442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRED AT 10 PM. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO
40-45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
WERE DECREASING OVER THE INLAND AREAS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT
OVER NW OH. LOW CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 250325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRED AT 10 PM. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO
40-45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRED AT 10 PM. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO
40-45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 45 MPH. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN DURING THE EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A PASSING
SHOWER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD OVRNGT S OF I 80...THOUGH SC CIGS ARE
EXPD TO DVLP IN COLD ADVCTN. CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE
SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE. PORTS N OF I 80 WL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
DVLPG...THOUGH AN INCR TO VFR IS EXPD THRU THE DAY TUE AS MXG
LIFTS THE CIG HGT. OCNL WSW WND GUSTS ARND 20 KT WL RMN PSBL THRU
TUE WITH A SLOWLY WKNG PRES GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 45 MPH. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN DURING THE EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A PASSING
SHOWER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD OVRNGT S OF I 80...THOUGH SC CIGS ARE
EXPD TO DVLP IN COLD ADVCTN. CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE
SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE. PORTS N OF I 80 WL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
DVLPG...THOUGH AN INCR TO VFR IS EXPD THRU THE DAY TUE AS MXG
LIFTS THE CIG HGT. OCNL WSW WND GUSTS ARND 20 KT WL RMN PSBL THRU
TUE WITH A SLOWLY WKNG PRES GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 250301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 250301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 250301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 250301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 250149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STARTING TO DECREASE SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE WARNING TO EXPIRE IN NW OHIO AT 8PM AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED.
TOL GUSTED TO 53 MPH AT 714 PM AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10 PM TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH IWX/DTX. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
COME DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND DID CANCEL OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM MARION TO HOLMES COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNGRADING NE
OH/NW PA WHERE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAD A GUST AT AKR TO 59 MPH AT
627 PM SO DECIDED TO JUST CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM. NOT WORTH
DOWNGRADING TO ADVISORY FOR JUST THE LAST 2.5 HOURS.

A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY START TO
RELAX THOUGH AND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STARTING TO DECREASE SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE WARNING TO EXPIRE IN NW OHIO AT 8PM AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED.
TOL GUSTED TO 53 MPH AT 714 PM AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10 PM TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH IWX/DTX. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
COME DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND DID CANCEL OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM MARION TO HOLMES COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNGRADING NE
OH/NW PA WHERE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAD A GUST AT AKR TO 59 MPH AT
627 PM SO DECIDED TO JUST CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM. NOT WORTH
DOWNGRADING TO ADVISORY FOR JUST THE LAST 2.5 HOURS.

A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY START TO
RELAX THOUGH AND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STARTING TO DECREASE SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE WARNING TO EXPIRE IN NW OHIO AT 8PM AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED.
TOL GUSTED TO 53 MPH AT 714 PM AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10 PM TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH IWX/DTX. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
COME DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND DID CANCEL OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM MARION TO HOLMES COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNGRADING NE
OH/NW PA WHERE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAD A GUST AT AKR TO 59 MPH AT
627 PM SO DECIDED TO JUST CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM. NOT WORTH
DOWNGRADING TO ADVISORY FOR JUST THE LAST 2.5 HOURS.

A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY START TO
RELAX THOUGH AND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KCLE 250149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STARTING TO DECREASE SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE WARNING TO EXPIRE IN NW OHIO AT 8PM AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED.
TOL GUSTED TO 53 MPH AT 714 PM AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10 PM TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH IWX/DTX. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
COME DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND DID CANCEL OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM MARION TO HOLMES COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNGRADING NE
OH/NW PA WHERE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAD A GUST AT AKR TO 59 MPH AT
627 PM SO DECIDED TO JUST CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM. NOT WORTH
DOWNGRADING TO ADVISORY FOR JUST THE LAST 2.5 HOURS.

A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY START TO
RELAX THOUGH AND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN








000
FXUS61 KRLX 250113
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
813 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS
AT OR BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WV...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KCKB AND KEKN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 03Z...BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 250113
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
813 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS
AT OR BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WV...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KCKB AND KEKN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 03Z...BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       TUE 11/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO
HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN.

WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO
HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN.

WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO
HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN.

WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO
HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN.

WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
654 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS
OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING
EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...ABOUT 40 KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
654 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS
OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING
EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...ABOUT 40 KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 242335
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 242335
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KRLX 242324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
624 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS
AT OR BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WV...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KCKB AND KEKN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 03Z...BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ037-038-046-
     047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 242324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
624 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE...DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. DID ELECT TO LET THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES RIDE A LITTLE LONGER...AS A FEW GUSTS
AT OR BORDERING CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...MADE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3
HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED
50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT
EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS.
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WV...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KCKB AND KEKN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 03Z...BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ037-038-046-
     047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KRLX 242155
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
455 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW LEVELS.
NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED 50 TO 55
MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND
PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION
OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS
JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS61 KRLX 242155
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
455 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW LEVELS.
NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED 50 TO 55
MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND
PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION
OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS
JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF
OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP
LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
PER COORD WITH WWD AND NEIGHBORS...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATION.  THIS IS AN ELEVATION BASED EVENT...SO THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM DEVELOPS AS TRANSITORY L/W TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CONUS.  WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...THE INDIVIDUAL S/W/S NEVER
PHASE.  HOWEVER...LIKE A PATIENT HITTER...THE SECOND S/W TROUGH
STAYS BACK LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEAD SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR W
AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW CENTER TAKES THE CLASSIC TRACK
NEWD UP THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NT...AND THEN FROM JUST S OF HATTERAS
WED MORNING TO S OF CAPE CODE WED EVENING...SO THE MAIN EVEN IS WED
STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FREEZING LEVEL OF
1500-2000 FT MSL...SO THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...LOW ENOUGH FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...CMC
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS WPC...FOR QPF...CROSS-CHECKED WITH THE POPS.
GIVEN WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND BOTH CRYSTAL
PRESENCE AND GROWTH LOOK GOOD...SNOWFALL IS A FUNCTION MAINLY OF SFC
TEMPERATURE AND QPF.  HAVE COUNTY AVERAGES OF THREE INCHES WITH PEAK
AMOUNTS JUST OVER 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON A 50% CONFIDENCE OF SIX INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND COVERING AT LEAST
HALF THE COUNTY ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.  THE WATCH
IS ALSO ON THE UPSTREAM END OF WATCHES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT...MAKING AN EARLY DECISION ALL
THE MORE PRUDENT.

BLENDED IN NAM MODEL AND MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH DID NOT ENTAIL
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE ALL-IMPORTANT EVENT TUE
NT AND WED.  HAVE WED NT A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS GIVEN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED
MET.  AVERAGED IN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS THU FOR LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30







000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 242040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS
OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING
EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...ABOUT 40 KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL WIND FIELD PRODUCING SSW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THAT AS OF 1730Z WAS JUST
THROUGH TOL/FDY. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BY EVENING
THE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO KERI. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS TOL AND LIKELY FINDLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BECOME BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR WITH A
TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
EXIT WITH THE FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 242040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS
OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING
EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...ABOUT 40 KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY.
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN`T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP.
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL WIND FIELD PRODUCING SSW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THAT AS OF 1730Z WAS JUST
THROUGH TOL/FDY. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BY EVENING
THE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO KERI. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS TOL AND LIKELY FINDLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BECOME BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR WITH A
TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
EXIT WITH THE FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY END TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLACKEN A BIT.
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY END TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLACKEN A BIT.
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT
OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO
KEEP LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT
OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO
KEEP LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT
OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO
KEEP LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT
OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO
KEEP LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241842
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT
OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO
KEEP LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WITH COLD FRONT NOW INTO EASTERN OHIO.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE TO POPS OR
WINDS. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND FRONT STILL GUSTING TOWARD 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET
OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE
AND BEST JET STAYS WEST TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KILN 241813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA GIVEN THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SMALL
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO BOW OUT AND A FEW INDIVIDUAL
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER COULD CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OR
MORE. THE FRONT IS JUST CROSSING NORTHWEST OHIO AND WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE PRESSURE RISES WITH FROPA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. LOWERED THE POP FOR THE SHOWER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NEW SHOWERS UNTIL WE GET UNDER THE
TROUGH ALOFT TONIGHT.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL WIND FIELD PRODUCING SSW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THAT AS OF 1730Z WAS JUST
THROUGH TOL/FDY. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BY EVENING
THE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO KERI. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS TOL AND LIKELY FINDLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BECOME BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR WITH A
TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
EXIT WITH THE FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 241741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA GIVEN THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SMALL
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO BOW OUT AND A FEW INDIVIDUAL
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER COULD CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OR
MORE. THE FRONT IS JUST CROSSING NORTHWEST OHIO AND WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE PRESSURE RISES WITH FROPA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. LOWERED THE POP FOR THE SHOWER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NEW SHOWERS UNTIL WE GET UNDER THE
TROUGH ALOFT TONIGHT.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL WIND FIELD PRODUCING SSW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THAT AS OF 1730Z WAS JUST
THROUGH TOL/FDY. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BY EVENING
THE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO KERI. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS TOL AND LIKELY FINDLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BECOME BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR WITH A
TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
EXIT WITH THE FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





000
FXUS61 KCLE 241655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA GIVEN THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SMALL
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO BOW OUT AND A FEW INDIVIDUAL
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER COULD CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OR
MORE. THE FRONT IS JUST CROSSING NORTHWEST OHIO AND WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE PRESSURE RISES WITH FROPA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. LOWERED THE POP FOR THE SHOWER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NEW SHOWERS UNTIL WE GET UNDER THE
TROUGH ALOFT TONIGHT.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA GIVEN THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SMALL
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO BOW OUT AND A FEW INDIVIDUAL
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER COULD CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OR
MORE. THE FRONT IS JUST CROSSING NORTHWEST OHIO AND WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE PRESSURE RISES WITH FROPA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. LOWERED THE POP FOR THE SHOWER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NEW SHOWERS UNTIL WE GET UNDER THE
TROUGH ALOFT TONIGHT.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 241524
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1024 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N KY INTO C OH AS OF 15Z. SOME
GUSTS 45 TO 50 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY OVER THIS
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SHRA. THE CORE OF THE JET WILL BE TRACKING NE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INTO NE OH. SO THE WINDOW FOR ANY SVR GUSTS
IS SHORT AND MAINLY ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH. A RECENT 53 KT GUST WAS
OBSERVED IN A SHRA OVER MOREHEAD KY.

OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE FRONT AND ANY
SHRA OUT AHEAD OF IT TO MEET WIND ADV CRITERIA /40 KTS/.
SO...LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE E...ELECTED TO HOIST THE REMAINDER OF
OUR COUNTIES INTO THE WIND ADV...ALTHOUGH COULD HANDLE THIS WILL
SPS SINCE MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. 17 TO 21Z TIME FRAME FOR STRONGEST
GUSTS AND FROPA ACROSS AREA. PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV
SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z.

BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATEST LAMP. ALREADY
NEARING 70F IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WIND FLOW...ABOUT 50-60 KNOTS AT
H850 BY 12Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS BY 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS WARRANTING A
WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT IN H850 CHARTS WITH THE MINUS 5C LINE
FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS WIND FLOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT COULD BE LIGHTER ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...INCREASED SOME ACROSS
EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES.
OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS
RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241524
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1024 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N KY INTO C OH AS OF 15Z. SOME
GUSTS 45 TO 50 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY OVER THIS
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SHRA. THE CORE OF THE JET WILL BE TRACKING NE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INTO NE OH. SO THE WINDOW FOR ANY SVR GUSTS
IS SHORT AND MAINLY ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH. A RECENT 53 KT GUST WAS
OBSERVED IN A SHRA OVER MOREHEAD KY.

OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE FRONT AND ANY
SHRA OUT AHEAD OF IT TO MEET WIND ADV CRITERIA /40 KTS/.
SO...LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS
CWA ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE E...ELECTED TO HOIST THE REMAINDER OF
OUR COUNTIES INTO THE WIND ADV...ALTHOUGH COULD HANDLE THIS WILL
SPS SINCE MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. 17 TO 21Z TIME FRAME FOR STRONGEST
GUSTS AND FROPA ACROSS AREA. PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV
SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z.

BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATEST LAMP. ALREADY
NEARING 70F IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WIND FLOW...ABOUT 50-60 KNOTS AT
H850 BY 12Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS BY 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS WARRANTING A
WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT IN H850 CHARTS WITH THE MINUS 5C LINE
FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS WIND FLOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT COULD BE LIGHTER ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...INCREASED SOME ACROSS
EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES.
OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS
RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241446
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SO
NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO GUST TOWARD 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K
FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE AND BEST JET STAYS WEST
TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH BE WIND GUSTS. S-SW
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION
OF THIS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241446
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SO
NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO GUST TOWARD 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K
FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE AND BEST JET STAYS WEST
TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH BE WIND GUSTS. S-SW
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION
OF THIS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KILN 241441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 241441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241437
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINE TUNED THE MORNING UPDATE AS FAR AS TIMING THE SHOWERS/LOCAL
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO EFFECT. IT IS
POLICY TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER THE ENHANCED WIND THREAT EVEN
WITH OTHER WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT SO WE WILL MONITOR
THE THIS THREAT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES EAST. THE
SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER EAST BUT THE JET ENERGY IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER FARTHER WEST SO WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON,

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241437
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINE TUNED THE MORNING UPDATE AS FAR AS TIMING THE SHOWERS/LOCAL
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO EFFECT. IT IS
POLICY TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER THE ENHANCED WIND THREAT EVEN
WITH OTHER WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT SO WE WILL MONITOR
THE THIS THREAT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES EAST. THE
SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER EAST BUT THE JET ENERGY IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER FARTHER WEST SO WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON,

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241137
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN ACTIVITY IN INDIANA HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TOO. TEMPS
HAVE STALLED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS...AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB
TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL
BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDER. DON`T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241137
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN ACTIVITY IN INDIANA HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TOO. TEMPS
HAVE STALLED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS...AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB
TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL
BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDER. DON`T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241137
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN ACTIVITY IN INDIANA HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TOO. TEMPS
HAVE STALLED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS...AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB
TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL
BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDER. DON`T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241137
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN ACTIVITY IN INDIANA HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TOO. TEMPS
HAVE STALLED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS...AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB
TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL
BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDER. DON`T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241130
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN ACTIVITY IN INDIANA HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TOO. TEMPS
HAVE STALLED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS...AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB
TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL
BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDER. DON`T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND AS
THIS HAPPENS THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.  A BREAK
WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND
NW PA AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME SHOWERS
AND MAY BE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

ON MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH STRONG WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT IN THE COLD ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 241032
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WIND FLOW...ABOUT 50-60 KNOTS AT
H850 BY 12Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS BY 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS WARRANTING A
WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT IN H850 CHARTS WITH THE MINUS 5C LINE
FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS WIND FLOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT COULD BE LIGHTER ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...INCREASED SOME ACROSS
EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES.
OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS
RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WIND FLOW...ABOUT 50-60 KNOTS AT
H850 BY 12Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS BY 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS WARRANTING A
WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT IN H850 CHARTS WITH THE MINUS 5C LINE
FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS WIND FLOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT COULD BE LIGHTER ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...INCREASED SOME ACROSS
EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES.
OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS
RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WIND FLOW...ABOUT 50-60 KNOTS AT
H850 BY 12Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS BY 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS WARRANTING A
WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT IN H850 CHARTS WITH THE MINUS 5C LINE
FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS WIND FLOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT COULD BE LIGHTER ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...INCREASED SOME ACROSS
EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES.
OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS
RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A