Home > Products > State Listing > Ohio Data
Latest:
 AFDILN |  AFDCLE |  AFDPBZ |  AFDRLX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291409
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR MID MORNIG UPDATE.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS
BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS
TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS
UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291409
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR MID MORNIG UPDATE.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS
BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS
TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS
UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 291317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
VFR CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO
BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCLUDED
VCTS IN TOL/FDY AFTER 21Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND AFTER 01Z SO THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ERI WHICH IS STARTING OUT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND...BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
SINCE THERE IS A BIT LARGER AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 291034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAVE A
VORTICITY MAX BRINGING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CUMULUS ROLLING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO. NOTHING ON RADAR FROM ILN HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. NO PREVAILING CONVECTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND IS TOO LOW FOR THE PROB30 CATEGORY.

HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER END OF
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED A BRIEF TEMPO OR AMD IF ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEARS A TERMINAL. MAY NOT HAVE THE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAVE A
VORTICITY MAX BRINGING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CUMULUS ROLLING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO. NOTHING ON RADAR FROM ILN HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. NO PREVAILING CONVECTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND IS TOO LOW FOR THE PROB30 CATEGORY.

HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER END OF
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED A BRIEF TEMPO OR AMD IF ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEARS A TERMINAL. MAY NOT HAVE THE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAVE A
VORTICITY MAX BRINGING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CUMULUS ROLLING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO. NOTHING ON RADAR FROM ILN HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. NO PREVAILING CONVECTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND IS TOO LOW FOR THE PROB30 CATEGORY.

HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER END OF
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED A BRIEF TEMPO OR AMD IF ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEARS A TERMINAL. MAY NOT HAVE THE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAVE A
VORTICITY MAX BRINGING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CUMULUS ROLLING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO. NOTHING ON RADAR FROM ILN HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. NO PREVAILING CONVECTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND IS TOO LOW FOR THE PROB30 CATEGORY.

HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER END OF
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED A BRIEF TEMPO OR AMD IF ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEARS A TERMINAL. MAY NOT HAVE THE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 291033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KILN 291033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KILN 291033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KILN 291033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. NO PREVAILING CONVECTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND IS TOO LOW FOR THE PROB30 CATEGORY.

HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER END OF
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED A BRIEF TEMPO OR AMD IF ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEARS A TERMINAL. MAY NOT HAVE THE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. NO PREVAILING CONVECTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND IS TOO LOW FOR THE PROB30 CATEGORY.

HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER END OF
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED A BRIEF TEMPO OR AMD IF ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEARS A TERMINAL. MAY NOT HAVE THE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER FULLY CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...THE AREA WILL BE STARTING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 290947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290815
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290815
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290815
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290815
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 290720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY
UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.

DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO
ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KILN 290533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 290533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES. ISOLATE SHRA IN COAL FIELDS WILL DIE OFF SOON.

700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES. ISOLATE SHRA IN COAL FIELDS WILL DIE OFF SOON.

700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KILN 290239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 290239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS
SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD
LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS
SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD
LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
804 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KILN 282351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 282351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIFTED TO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 060-070
AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE IT IS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECASTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MORNING. CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AS "SHOWERS
VICINITY" AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282338 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282338 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 282222
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281934 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281934 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281934 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KCLE 281934 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281859
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
259 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281859
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
259 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WENDESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WENDESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KILN 281732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KILN 281447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281447
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOTED SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV INVOF OF POST
FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH RIVER BASIN. CAA
STRATCU COVERING MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMAINING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...
NO MAJOR NEAR TERM CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KILN 281447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281447
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOTED SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV INVOF OF POST
FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH RIVER BASIN. CAA
STRATCU COVERING MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMAINING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...
NO MAJOR NEAR TERM CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SURFACE LOW NOW INTO NEW YORK
STATE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TO CROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJSUTMENTS TO GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING MVFR SC AND A SCT-NMRS SHWRS TO THE
RGN THRU THIS AFTN. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPD THIS MRNG N OF I
80. LINGERING VFR SC IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCLE 281316
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS INLAND NERN OHIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281316
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS INLAND NERN OHIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING MVFR SC AND A SCT-NMRS SHWRS TO THE
RGN THRU THIS AFTN. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPD THIS MRNG N OF I
80. LINGERING VFR SC IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF ERIE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CEILINGS RANGE FROM IFR IN
NE OHIO TO MVFR IN NW OHIO. IFR EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH 15Z WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN NE OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS ONTO LAKE ERIE NOW WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SO FAR HAVE KEPT MOVING. INLAND NW PA IS A CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THAT REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA
INDICATES THAT WE NEED IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS. SO FAR ABOUT HALF OF THAT HAS OCCURRED. WILL PASS THIS
ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280831
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
431 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280831
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
431 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
     023-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
316 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
316 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280606
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
206 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WATCH IS GONE. HAD SOME GLITCHES WITH THE EARLIER EXTENSION BUT
HOPEFULLY THING ARE BETTER NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. THE
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE EAST
LAKESHORE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL FINALLY TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO
2500-3500 FEET.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KILN 280538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO






000
FXUS61 KILN 280538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280212
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WATCH IS GONE. HAD SOME GLITCHES WITH THE EARLIER EXTENSION BUT
HOPEFULLY THING ARE BETTER NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. THE
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE EAST
LAKESHORE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL FINALLY TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280212
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WATCH IS GONE. HAD SOME GLITCHES WITH THE EARLIER EXTENSION BUT
HOPEFULLY THING ARE BETTER NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. THE
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE EAST
LAKESHORE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL FINALLY TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280212
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WATCH IS GONE. HAD SOME GLITCHES WITH THE EARLIER EXTENSION BUT
HOPEFULLY THING ARE BETTER NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. THE
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE EAST
LAKESHORE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL FINALLY TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280212
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WATCH IS GONE. HAD SOME GLITCHES WITH THE EARLIER EXTENSION BUT
HOPEFULLY THING ARE BETTER NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. THE
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE EAST
LAKESHORE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL FINALLY TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280210
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS
EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280210
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS
EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KRLX 280156
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
956 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
945 PM UPDATE...

STILL A SVR THREAT...MAINLY LOW TOPPED ROTATING CELLS FOR THE NEXT
HR OR TWO. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SCT AND MAINLY CONFINED IN N
MTNS AND ACRSS NE KY/SE OH ON BKN LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WITH IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY TERMINAL THAT TAKES A HIT THRU 03Z.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 280020
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
820 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR
THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT
JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG
IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS->

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS
EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 280020
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
820 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR
THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT
JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG
IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS->

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS
EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 272356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE HAS PICKED UP IN AND AHEAD OF IT AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERITY THIS EVENING.
HAVE STRIPPED A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA BEHIND
FRONT FROM THE TOR WATCH. WILL LET THE REST OF THE COUNTIES EXPIRE
AT 9:00 AND DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL EXTEND IN TIME UNLESS THEY
START EXHIBITING A MARKED INCREASE IN ROTATION WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 272356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE HAS PICKED UP IN AND AHEAD OF IT AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERITY THIS EVENING.
HAVE STRIPPED A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA BEHIND
FRONT FROM THE TOR WATCH. WILL LET THE REST OF THE COUNTIES EXPIRE
AT 9:00 AND DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL EXTEND IN TIME UNLESS THEY
START EXHIBITING A MARKED INCREASE IN ROTATION WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 272356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE HAS PICKED UP IN AND AHEAD OF IT AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERITY THIS EVENING.
HAVE STRIPPED A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA BEHIND
FRONT FROM THE TOR WATCH. WILL LET THE REST OF THE COUNTIES EXPIRE
AT 9:00 AND DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL EXTEND IN TIME UNLESS THEY
START EXHIBITING A MARKED INCREASE IN ROTATION WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 272356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE HAS PICKED UP IN AND AHEAD OF IT AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERITY THIS EVENING.
HAVE STRIPPED A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA BEHIND
FRONT FROM THE TOR WATCH. WILL LET THE REST OF THE COUNTIES EXPIRE
AT 9:00 AND DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL EXTEND IN TIME UNLESS THEY
START EXHIBITING A MARKED INCREASE IN ROTATION WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT THE TAF
FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT THE TAF
FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT THE TAF
FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 272236
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT THE TAF
FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 272145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR
THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT
JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG
IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS->

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 272145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR
THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT
JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG
IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS->

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KRLX 272124
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 PM UPDATE...

EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE REALLY DENTED CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THIS
AFTN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THOUGH IN
THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS WV HAS ALLOWED SOME SFC HEATING AND WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...CANT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
FIRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MTNS NEXT FEW HRS.
NONETHELESS...A VERY STOUT DRY AIR PUNCH IN THE H7-H6 LYR IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING E THRU S OH AND N KY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LACK OF VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N KY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP US OUT WITH
JUST A BKN LINE WITH COLD FRONT LATER. SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN EXCEPT SW VA WHICH IS GETTING CLIPPED
BY E KY CONVECTION. DID ALLOW SOME RAMP UP IN THE MTNS THIS EVE
BUT OTHERWISE...CAPPING WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT WORDING. NIXED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE. WILL BE EVALUATING
TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KRLX 272124
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 PM UPDATE...

EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE REALLY DENTED CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THIS
AFTN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THOUGH IN
THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS WV HAS ALLOWED SOME SFC HEATING AND WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...CANT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
FIRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MTNS NEXT FEW HRS.
NONETHELESS...A VERY STOUT DRY AIR PUNCH IN THE H7-H6 LYR IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING E THRU S OH AND N KY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LACK OF VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N KY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP US OUT WITH
JUST A BKN LINE WITH COLD FRONT LATER. SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN EXCEPT SW VA WHICH IS GETTING CLIPPED
BY E KY CONVECTION. DID ALLOW SOME RAMP UP IN THE MTNS THIS EVE
BUT OTHERWISE...CAPPING WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT WORDING. NIXED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE. WILL BE EVALUATING
TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272034
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272008
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FORCED BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SEEM TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STORM INITIATION AS OF THIS HOUR. THE FIRST OF THESE SEEMS TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA EASTWARD...AND HAS A FAIRLY
DISCERNIBLE MESOLOW TRACKING DOWN IT ASSISTING WITH ASCENT.
ANOTHER NEWER LINEAR FEATURE CAN ALSO BE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN RUC/NAM DATA...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RADAR MANIFESTATION OF AN AREA OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE
THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS...WITH STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. TRAINING
DOWN THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED FOCUSING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND
GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
GOOD. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THIS.

THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL UNSTABLE EVEN AS THE
LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272008
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FORCED BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SEEM TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STORM INITIATION AS OF THIS HOUR. THE FIRST OF THESE SEEMS TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA EASTWARD...AND HAS A FAIRLY
DISCERNIBLE MESOLOW TRACKING DOWN IT ASSISTING WITH ASCENT.
ANOTHER NEWER LINEAR FEATURE CAN ALSO BE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN RUC/NAM DATA...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RADAR MANIFESTATION OF AN AREA OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE
THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS...WITH STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. TRAINING
DOWN THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED FOCUSING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND
GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
GOOD. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THIS.

THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL UNSTABLE EVEN AS THE
LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271934
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 12Z
MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LAG
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN FACT
GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE MAIN
CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR POST-TROUGH
WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271934
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 12Z
MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LAG
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN FACT
GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE MAIN
CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR POST-TROUGH
WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...50







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. STRONG
DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR TO LIKELY PRODUCE
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE
REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD START TO SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE PAST WEEK SHOULD
MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA OF BIGGEST CONCERN
FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP SHRA WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT THRU MON MORNING.
COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM
WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT THE TAF
FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KILN 271846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 271846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 271846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 271846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 271822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OHIO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. MULTIPLE MODES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A HIGHER THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ANYWHERE IN THE FA. THERE IS A DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. CONTINUED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 271822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OHIO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. MULTIPLE MODES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A HIGHER THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ANYWHERE IN THE FA. THERE IS A DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. CONTINUED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY
TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND
AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR
SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY
TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND
AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR
SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

130 PM UPDATE...MESOSCALE PROCESSES ARE MAKING THE EVOLUTION OF
TODAY/S THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL COMPLEX...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO FORM NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. MEANWHILE THE ONGOING COMPLEX MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER
SOMEWHAT. HAVE JUST ISSUED TORNADO WATCHES 445 AND 445 INTO THE
MID-EVENING HOURS.

1030 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH SOME FINE-
TUNING OF POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
MODERATE RISK AREA FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV/50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

130 PM UPDATE...MESOSCALE PROCESSES ARE MAKING THE EVOLUTION OF
TODAY/S THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL COMPLEX...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO FORM NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. MEANWHILE THE ONGOING COMPLEX MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER
SOMEWHAT. HAVE JUST ISSUED TORNADO WATCHES 445 AND 445 INTO THE
MID-EVENING HOURS.

1030 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH SOME FINE-
TUNING OF POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
MODERATE RISK AREA FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV/50









000
FXUS61 KCLE 271745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX SITUATION FOR TODAY WITH A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
WILL BECOME MUCH CLEARER BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DIG OUT A TROUGH FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AND A JUICY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPC HAS AREA UNDER A
HIGH END SLIGHT RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY MAY BE REALIZED FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS
THAT SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX APPROACHES BY MIDDAY.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH/NW PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NUMEROUS
MESO-BOUNDARIES LIKELY AVAILABLE...CONVECTION TO INITIATE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
ORGANIZE AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS HIT THE SAME SPOT TODAY.
BY 6 PM EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO BE THROUGH NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 8PM AND 10PM. SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
PICKS UP TONIGHT FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. LOW TRACKS IN THE VICINITY
OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THEN INTO NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH IS USHERED IN AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES...HAVE THE POTENTIAL SET UP FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR WESTERN AREAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS
ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE TO BECOME INVOLVED. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME MINOR RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL TAKE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO 70 MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND FOR THE EASTERN HALF
WEDNESDAY TOO. NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE UPPER 40S AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A DIURNAL VARIABILITY TO THE SHOWERS
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 60S MAY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT
THE TAF FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
MAY BECOME VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS OF 50 KNOTS. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE MAY
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX SITUATION FOR TODAY WITH A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
WILL BECOME MUCH CLEARER BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DIG OUT A TROUGH FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AND A JUICY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPC HAS AREA UNDER A
HIGH END SLIGHT RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY MAY BE REALIZED FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS
THAT SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX APPROACHES BY MIDDAY.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH/NW PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NUMEROUS
MESO-BOUNDARIES LIKELY AVAILABLE...CONVECTION TO INITIATE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
ORGANIZE AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS HIT THE SAME SPOT TODAY.
BY 6 PM EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO BE THROUGH NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 8PM AND 10PM. SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
PICKS UP TONIGHT FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. LOW TRACKS IN THE VICINITY
OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THEN INTO NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH IS USHERED IN AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES...HAVE THE POTENTIAL SET UP FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR WESTERN AREAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS
ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE TO BECOME INVOLVED. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME MINOR RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL TAKE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO 70 MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND FOR THE EASTERN HALF
WEDNESDAY TOO. NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE UPPER 40S AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A DIURNAL VARIABILITY TO THE SHOWERS
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 60S MAY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT
THE TAF FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
MAY BECOME VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS OF 50 KNOTS. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE MAY
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities