Home > Products > State Listing > Ohio Data
Latest:
 AFDILN |  AFDCLE |  AFDPBZ |  AFDRLX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 061139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL LIFT MID MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN KCAK AND KYNG WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMWILL
DEVELOP MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIND SHIFTS LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 061139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL LIFT MID MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN KCAK AND KYNG WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMWILL
DEVELOP MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIND SHIFTS LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL LIFT MID MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN KCAK AND KYNG WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMWILL
DEVELOP MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIND SHIFTS LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 061139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL LIFT MID MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN KCAK AND KYNG WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMWILL
DEVELOP MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIND SHIFTS LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 061101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY RETURNS AND A SHOWER BEING REPORTED AT KYNG AT 7AM. NO BIG
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA
TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND
TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS IN WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN
HIT 90 YET THIS SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014.
CLEVELAND HAS ONLY HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO
AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE 10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS
ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 061052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 061052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 061052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 061052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 061052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 061052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 061007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL
MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 061007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL
MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060930
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
530 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PRE
DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED
BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060930
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
530 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PRE
DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED
BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 060841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME BR MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 060841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME BR MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 060841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME BR MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 060841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME BR MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KCLE 060827
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
427 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SPOTTY RETURNS ARE ON RADAR AT THIS POINT...PRE DAWN. UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE
SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES
ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED. THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE
WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL
BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER
WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS IN
WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN HIT 90 YET THIS
SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014. CLEVELAND HAS ONLY
HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE
10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 060827
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
427 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SPOTTY RETURNS ARE ON RADAR AT THIS POINT...PRE DAWN. UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY WHILE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT. AT THE
SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN OHIO. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE AROUND ALL DAY...DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS AS THE DAY GOES
ON...DIURNALLY ENHANCED. THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL OF THIS
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
LARGELY IN TACT WITH A CLEVELAND TO MOUNT VERNON LINE ON THE
WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FURTHER WEST IT WILL
BE MUCH TOO TRY AND TOO REMOVED FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEATHER
WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THEM TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80. ACROSS THE WEST IT WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS IN
WHILE...EXPECTING MID 80S. TOLEDO HAS NOT EVEN HIT 90 YET THIS
SUMMER...THE LAST OCCURRENCE WAS IN SEPT 2014. CLEVELAND HAS ONLY
HIT 90 ONCE THIS YEAR...IN JUNE. AREA IS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS. TOLEDO AVERAGES 16 A YEAR AND CLE
10. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...WET SOILS ALL KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP INTO OUR AREA THAT EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES SOME...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE FRONT JUST PAST CLE AROUND
8P/0Z. ANY SEVERE CHANCES SEEM MINIMAL. LACKING BETTER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. FRONT
WILL BE SLOWING...EVENTUALLY STALLING WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON SHOWER TIMING...WHILE THOSE ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE LINGERED THE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH PWS TUESDAY REACHING 2
INCHES TUESDAY...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS HELPED
WITH THAT AND STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO WANT TO ADVERTISE A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PULL
THAT BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS RETURN.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN OH/NW PA
ON THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS HARD TO TIME AND DETERMINE ITS STRENGTH THIS
FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 40 TO 55
PERCENT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVENTIES AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. CLEAN WARM UPS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO COME BY THIS SUMMER AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AGAIN AS
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING TO TIME ANY OF THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO HAVE A "CHANCE" OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL NOT FORECAST THE POP
TOO HIGH...GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE...UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE THE
SITUATION BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPS COULD WELL BE
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT IF THE WARM FRONT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WE HAVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THEN IT MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
DAY AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT A LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPRINT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL CLEAR UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



000
FXUS61 KRLX 060825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
420 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE CANCELLED MUCH OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT...STILL HANGING ONTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE 6 AM EXPIRATION TIME WITH ONGOING SHOWERS THERE. THINK
QPF WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 6 AM IN THIS
AREA. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AND KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 060825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
420 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE CANCELLED MUCH OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT...STILL HANGING ONTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE 6 AM EXPIRATION TIME WITH ONGOING SHOWERS THERE. THINK
QPF WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 6 AM IN THIS
AREA. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AND KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 060545
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. GRIDS
APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION IS
SKY COVER. CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY
MUCH OVERCAST AT THIS TIME SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 060545
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. GRIDS
APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION IS
SKY COVER. CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY
MUCH OVERCAST AT THIS TIME SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE COUNTIES NEAR THE OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR WITH
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THEN
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 060539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 060539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETEIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSEWD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETEIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSEWD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETEIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSEWD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 060519
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
119 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWEST AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT
THUNDER THREAT TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SO WILL JUST HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME BR MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 060250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 060250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS ANTICIPATED...CONVECTION
HAS WANED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NOW
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME BETTER SATURATED...AND ALONG THE
RIDGES WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME UPSLOPE...BUT
TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF MUCH. HAVE
OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER SREF/NAM GUIDANCE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WITH LITTLE
STEERING FLOW...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER HAVE A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW OVER THE RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER...BUT MODEL PROFILES HAVE ABOUT
800J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RIDGES FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY NEED TO EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS ANTICIPATED...CONVECTION
HAS WANED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NOW
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME BETTER SATURATED...AND ALONG THE
RIDGES WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME UPSLOPE...BUT
TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF MUCH. HAVE
OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER SREF/NAM GUIDANCE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WITH LITTLE
STEERING FLOW...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER HAVE A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW OVER THE RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER...BUT MODEL PROFILES HAVE ABOUT
800J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RIDGES FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY NEED TO EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 060141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. GRIDS
APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION IS
SKY COVER. CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY
MUCH OVERCAST AT THIS TIME SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 060141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. GRIDS
APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION IS
SKY COVER. CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY
MUCH OVERCAST AT THIS TIME SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KILN 060131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWEST AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT
THUNDER THREAT TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SO WILL JUST HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 060131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWEST AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT
THUNDER THREAT TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SO WILL JUST HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 052354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA BUT IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY ARE.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SKY OVERHEAD DOMINATED BY CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
FROM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM MASSIVE FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA.
FIRES ARE REALLY VISIBLE IN THE 3.9U SATELLITE DATA. SMOKE IS
PUSHING SOUTH OVER US GIVING SKY A MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 052354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA BUT IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY ARE.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SKY OVERHEAD DOMINATED BY CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
FROM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM MASSIVE FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA.
FIRES ARE REALLY VISIBLE IN THE 3.9U SATELLITE DATA. SMOKE IS
PUSHING SOUTH OVER US GIVING SKY A MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 052354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA BUT IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY ARE.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SKY OVERHEAD DOMINATED BY CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
FROM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM MASSIVE FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA.
FIRES ARE REALLY VISIBLE IN THE 3.9U SATELLITE DATA. SMOKE IS
PUSHING SOUTH OVER US GIVING SKY A MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 052354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA BUT IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY ARE.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SKY OVERHEAD DOMINATED BY CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
FROM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM MASSIVE FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA.
FIRES ARE REALLY VISIBLE IN THE 3.9U SATELLITE DATA. SMOKE IS
PUSHING SOUTH OVER US GIVING SKY A MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF
OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN
THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE
OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT
SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
TRIGGER SFC WAVE FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF
CHALLENGE IN THAT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST BUT HAVE ONLY PLACED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOR
KCAK...KYNG...KERI. KYNG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISNT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 052346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SKY OVERNIGHT IS AN ISSUE. AS THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO SET IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 052346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SKY OVERNIGHT IS AN ISSUE. AS THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO SET IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 052346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SKY OVERNIGHT IS AN ISSUE. AS THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO SET IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 052346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SKY OVERNIGHT IS AN ISSUE. AS THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO SET IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KILN 052344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY SE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 052344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY SE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 052344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY SE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 052344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY SE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KCLE 052308
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA BUT IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY ARE.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SKY OVERHEAD DOMINATED BY CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
FROM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM MASSIVE FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA.
FIRES ARE REALLY VISIBLE IN THE 3.9U SATELLITE DATA. SMOKE IS
PUSHING SOUTH OVER US GIVING SKY A MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS
MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT
THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS
WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SFC WAVE
FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF CHALLENGE IN THAT IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTIAL
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATE
SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 052308
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA BUT IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY ARE.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SKY OVERHEAD DOMINATED BY CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
FROM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM MASSIVE FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA.
FIRES ARE REALLY VISIBLE IN THE 3.9U SATELLITE DATA. SMOKE IS
PUSHING SOUTH OVER US GIVING SKY A MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS
MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT
THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS
WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SFC WAVE
FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF CHALLENGE IN THAT IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTIAL
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATE
SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 052055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY SE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 052055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY SE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KRLX 052019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 052019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 052019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 052019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KCLE 052015
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY MORNING. THICKER CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO
SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NW OHIO. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO ARRIVE SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
TONIGHT IN OUR SE TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR 60
DEGREES MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS
MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT
THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS
WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SFC WAVE
FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF CHALLENGE IN THAT IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTIAL
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATE
SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 052015
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY MORNING. THICKER CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO
SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NW OHIO. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO ARRIVE SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
TONIGHT IN OUR SE TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR 60
DEGREES MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS
MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT
THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS
WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SFC WAVE
FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF CHALLENGE IN THAT IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTIAL
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATE
SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING BUT WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING BUT WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051457
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

1045 AM UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051457
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

1045 AM UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051457
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

1045 AM UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051457
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

1045 AM UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING BUT WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 051415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING BUT WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING BUT WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051255
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. STILL FORESEE A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
CREEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051255
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. STILL FORESEE A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
CREEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 051103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 051103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 051103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 051103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KILN 051048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE
TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY
WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS
AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 051048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE
TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY
WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS
AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 051048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE
TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY
WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS
AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 051048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE
TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY
WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS
AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050956
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO
SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR
FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050956
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO
SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR
FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KILN 050910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE
TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY
WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS
AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 050910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE
TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY
WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS
AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KRLX 050840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 050840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 050840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050653
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO
SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR
FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050653
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO
SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR
FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050653
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO
SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR
FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 050550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 050550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES
FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN
WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KCLE 050504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT
CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO. THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM
EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT
CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO. THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM
EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD AT YNG CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TO SOME FOG TO FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. HZ SHOWING UP AT
CAK AND CLE SO WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO. THIS COULD BE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA OR FROM LEFTOVER SMOKE FROM
EVENING FIREWORKS. FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. REST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY START TO ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND CAK AND YNG.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE
WARM...WEAK LOWS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL
BE LEANING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED
POPS. MONDAY NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE
FOR THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE
WARM...WEAK LOWS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL
BE LEANING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED
POPS. MONDAY NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE
FOR THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KILN 050309
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT VFR WITH SOME CU AND HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 050309
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT VFR WITH SOME CU AND HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 050309
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER
THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT VFR WITH SOME CU AND HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS MADE SOME INROADS INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE RIDGES...IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA...AND IN MOST OF OHIO FAILED TO DROP BELOW 60F.
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC GOING INTO TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATE THE REGION AND RADIATION FOG STARTS TO BECOME POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS WITH THIS THEORY...HOWEVER...AS AFTERNOON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM
WILDFIRES MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS SMOKE IS GENERALLY
OPAQUE TO OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION...SO IT MAY ACTUALLY WORK TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE THAN WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN THE
CASE. THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THAT
SAID...DECOUPLING SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...AND GIVEN OUR
RECENT PROPENSITY FOR FOG AND OUR RECENT RAIN ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UPWARD MOISTURE FLUX
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. IT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE GRIDS...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS MADE SOME INROADS INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE RIDGES...IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA...AND IN MOST OF OHIO FAILED TO DROP BELOW 60F.
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC GOING INTO TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATE THE REGION AND RADIATION FOG STARTS TO BECOME POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS WITH THIS THEORY...HOWEVER...AS AFTERNOON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM
WILDFIRES MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS SMOKE IS GENERALLY
OPAQUE TO OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION...SO IT MAY ACTUALLY WORK TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE THAN WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN THE
CASE. THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THAT
SAID...DECOUPLING SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...AND GIVEN OUR
RECENT PROPENSITY FOR FOG AND OUR RECENT RAIN ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UPWARD MOISTURE FLUX
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. IT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE GRIDS...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 050001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC



000
FXUS61 KCLE 050001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 042347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
STALLED FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 00Z...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH QUICKLY
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY.

ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED
WITH IFR OR WORSE FOG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...EXPECT AN IFR
STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...INCLUDING BKW...WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON FOG.

ANY FOG WILL SCT OUT FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
THE MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA SPREADING AHEAD
OF IT DURING SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND WV. BKW
LOOKS TO BE THE MVFR TERMINAL IN SHOWERS BY 18Z...WITH MOST OTHER
TERMINALS AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG REMAINING VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV/30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 042347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
STALLED FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 00Z...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH QUICKLY
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY.

ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED
WITH IFR OR WORSE FOG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...EXPECT AN IFR
STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...INCLUDING BKW...WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON FOG.

ANY FOG WILL SCT OUT FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
THE MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA SPREADING AHEAD
OF IT DURING SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND WV. BKW
LOOKS TO BE THE MVFR TERMINAL IN SHOWERS BY 18Z...WITH MOST OTHER
TERMINALS AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG REMAINING VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV/30




000
FXUS61 KILN 042320
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
720 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S. THIS IS EVIDENT ALSO I
THE CU FIELD. WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CU
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT WHEREAS MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO HAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO WORK
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHERE DRIER AIR STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT VFR WITH SOME CU AND HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 042320
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
720 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S. THIS IS EVIDENT ALSO I
THE CU FIELD. WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CU
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT WHEREAS MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO HAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO WORK
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHERE DRIER AIR STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT VFR WITH SOME CU AND HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT






000
FXUS61 KCLE 042244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 042244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR FIREWORKS. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 042040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S. THIS IS EVIDENT ALSO I
THE CU FIELD. WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CU
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT WHEREAS MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO HAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO WORK
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHERE DRIER AIR STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE
SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 042040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S. THIS IS EVIDENT ALSO I
THE CU FIELD. WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CU
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT WHEREAS MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO HAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO WORK
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHERE DRIER AIR STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS
WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE
SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KRLX 042007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FOG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FOG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 042007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FOG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FOG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KCLE 042003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50`S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS61 KCLE 042003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50`S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTION LOOKS GOOD AS THEY USED
WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTION LOOKS GOOD AS THEY USED
WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

WITH PWATS CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB
TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE
MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF
SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

WITH PWATS CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB
TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE
MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF
SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

WITH PWATS CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB
TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE
MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF
SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

WITH PWATS CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB
TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE
MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF
SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

WITH PWATS CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB
TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE
MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF
SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF ANY PATCHY BR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD AS LAST
NIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM AT TOL BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KILN 041630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE
SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES






000
FXUS61 KILN 041630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE
SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 041630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE
SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 041432
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

SFC FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH CO-LOCATED WITH NARROW BAND OF MODERATE
SHRA...DRAPED OVER THE COAL FIELDS TO POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS OF
14Z. RLX VAD SHOWS A NNW FLOW UP TO ABOUT 4 KFT THEN BACKING
AROUND TO THE W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGESSES...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN.

SKY HAS CLEARED OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE STATE OF OH...WITH
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE OH RIVER FROM KY TO PA. NEAR
TERM MODELS DO FILTER IN DRIER AIR TO AT LEAST THE LOWLANDS...SO
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO CONT TO BREAK UP...PROBABLY INTO A BKN
STRATOCU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND NE KY. FURTHER
SE...THESE CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE...BUT EVEN HERE THE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING LATER THIS AFTN FOR AT LEAST THE OVC TO
BECOME BKN STRATUS. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER MAXT OVER SE OH AND NW
WV WHERE MORE SUN WILL BE REALIZED...80 T0 82. THIS BECOMES
PRIMARILY 70S FURTHER SE...WITH LOWER 70S SE WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND A
500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 041432
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

SFC FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH CO-LOCATED WITH NARROW BAND OF MODERATE
SHRA...DRAPED OVER THE COAL FIELDS TO POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS OF
14Z. RLX VAD SHOWS A NNW FLOW UP TO ABOUT 4 KFT THEN BACKING
AROUND TO THE W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGESSES...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN.

SKY HAS CLEARED OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE STATE OF OH...WITH
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE OH RIVER FROM KY TO PA. NEAR
TERM MODELS DO FILTER IN DRIER AIR TO AT LEAST THE LOWLANDS...SO
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO CONT TO BREAK UP...PROBABLY INTO A BKN
STRATOCU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND NE KY. FURTHER
SE...THESE CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE...BUT EVEN HERE THE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING LATER THIS AFTN FOR AT LEAST THE OVC TO
BECOME BKN STRATUS. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER MAXT OVER SE OH AND NW
WV WHERE MORE SUN WILL BE REALIZED...80 T0 82. THIS BECOMES
PRIMARILY 70S FURTHER SE...WITH LOWER 70S SE WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND A
500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041432
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

SFC FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH CO-LOCATED WITH NARROW BAND OF MODERATE
SHRA...DRAPED OVER THE COAL FIELDS TO POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS OF
14Z. RLX VAD SHOWS A NNW FLOW UP TO ABOUT 4 KFT THEN BACKING
AROUND TO THE W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGESSES...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN.

SKY HAS CLEARED OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE STATE OF OH...WITH
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE OH RIVER FROM KY TO PA. NEAR
TERM MODELS DO FILTER IN DRIER AIR TO AT LEAST THE LOWLANDS...SO
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO CONT TO BREAK UP...PROBABLY INTO A BKN
STRATOCU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND NE KY. FURTHER
SE...THESE CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE...BUT EVEN HERE THE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING LATER THIS AFTN FOR AT LEAST THE OVC TO
BECOME BKN STRATUS. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER MAXT OVER SE OH AND NW
WV WHERE MORE SUN WILL BE REALIZED...80 T0 82. THIS BECOMES
PRIMARILY 70S FURTHER SE...WITH LOWER 70S SE WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND A
500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 041432
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

SFC FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH CO-LOCATED WITH NARROW BAND OF MODERATE
SHRA...DRAPED OVER THE COAL FIELDS TO POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS OF
14Z. RLX VAD SHOWS A NNW FLOW UP TO ABOUT 4 KFT THEN BACKING
AROUND TO THE W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGESSES...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN.

SKY HAS CLEARED OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE STATE OF OH...WITH
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE OH RIVER FROM KY TO PA. NEAR
TERM MODELS DO FILTER IN DRIER AIR TO AT LEAST THE LOWLANDS...SO
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO CONT TO BREAK UP...PROBABLY INTO A BKN
STRATOCU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND NE KY. FURTHER
SE...THESE CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE...BUT EVEN HERE THE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING LATER THIS AFTN FOR AT LEAST THE OVC TO
BECOME BKN STRATUS. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER MAXT OVER SE OH AND NW
WV WHERE MORE SUN WILL BE REALIZED...80 T0 82. THIS BECOMES
PRIMARILY 70S FURTHER SE...WITH LOWER 70S SE WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND A
500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 041423
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR AT TAF
SITES. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS. BR THAT HAS
FORMED MAINLY AT ILN IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER CLEARING
SKIES WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. BR MAY FORM AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AT LUK.
CVG WILL HAVE EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 041423
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR AT TAF
SITES. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS. BR THAT HAS
FORMED MAINLY AT ILN IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER CLEARING
SKIES WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. BR MAY FORM AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AT LUK.
CVG WILL HAVE EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 041423
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR AT TAF
SITES. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS. BR THAT HAS
FORMED MAINLY AT ILN IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER CLEARING
SKIES WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. BR MAY FORM AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AT LUK.
CVG WILL HAVE EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 041423
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR AT TAF
SITES. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS. BR THAT HAS
FORMED MAINLY AT ILN IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER CLEARING
SKIES WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. BR MAY FORM AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AT LUK.
CVG WILL HAVE EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 041347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ANOTHER PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR 80 DEG WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE NEOH/NWPA LAKESHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities