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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
     UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS OBS INDICATE
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT STILL REMAIN INTO CNTRL OH.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR
SHELTERED AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE NORTH COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY










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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230537
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
137 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AS SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO BUT
STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR NW PA. LOCATIONS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA.

AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS BY 11Z WE EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MEANWHILE NW OHIO WILL BE
VFR THE ENTIRE TIME.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK






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000
FXUS61 KILN 230529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE E SIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER IN STRENGTH.

AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHES OF CI CONTINUE TO SLIP SE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE QUICK H5 FLOW. MEANWHILE SC DROPPING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD POOL IS DROPPING DOWN THRU NRN OHIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SC SHOULD MOVE E BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS COULD STILL BRUSH BY KCMH EARLY AND THEN FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AREA
WIDE. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO NORTHEAST OR EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...






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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1038 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT
EXITS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

...UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS OBS INDICATE
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT STILL REMAIN INTO CNTRL OH.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR
SHELTERED AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX TOWARD MORNING RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GIVING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MANY DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KILN 230210
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE E SIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER IN STRENGTH.

AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHES OF CI CONTINUE TO SLIP SE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE QUICK H5 FLOW. MEANWHILE SC DROPPING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD POOL IS DROPPING DOWN THRU NRN OHIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SC SHOULD MOVE E BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CI WILL WORK THRU THE NW H5 FLOW. AN
AREA OF VFR SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 S/W IS WORKING SE ACROSS NRN
OHIO. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME SCT SC TO CMH/LCK FIR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BUT NW WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER 10KTS THRU 04-06Z.

AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...CAA AT H8 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CU TO POP
BY LATE MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE E...BUT EVEN THERE
ONLY WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLIP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230120
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AS SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE AND
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. FROM
ABOUT KCLE EAST EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS NEAR YYZ. THESE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE
AREA IN A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP KCLE AND KCAK DRY BUT KERI AND KYNG
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN. DRY AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT LATER
TONIGHT AND SKIES OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY 06Z. IT WILL TAKE TILL LATER WEDNESDAY AM FOR THE CIGS TO
DIS SPATE IN THE EAST. WNW TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE FLOW AT KCLE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 320.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 230032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
832 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA IN A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CI WILL WORK THRU THE NW H5 FLOW. AN
AREA OF VFR SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 S/W IS WORKING SE ACROSS NRN
OHIO. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME SCT SC TO CMH/LCK FIR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BUT NW WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER 10KTS THRU 04-06Z.

AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...CAA AT H8 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CU TO POP
BY LATE MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE E...BUT EVEN THERE
ONLY WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLIP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
824 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT
EXITS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY CONDITIONS UNTIL
MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR SHELTERED AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GIVING CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SLIM CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITIES IF WINDS
CALM FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ/JW
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KCLE 222342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE AND
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. FROM
ABOUT KCLE EAST EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS NEAR YYZ. THESE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE
AREA IN A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP KCLE AND KCAK DRY BUT KERI AND KYNG
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN. DRY AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT LATER
TONIGHT AND SKIES OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY 06Z. IT WILL TAKE TILL LATER WEDNESDAY AM FOR THE CIGS TO
DIS SPATE IN THE EAST. WNW TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE FLOW AT KCLE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 320.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222213
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
613 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KILN 222031
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA IN A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MVFR CIGS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.
&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221837
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KILN 221749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTN. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PCPN MENTION TO JUST
A SIGHT CHC IN THE FAR EAST EARLY. GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY SHARP SFC DEW POINT DRYING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY WHICH
SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER ILNS AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURG THE AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

SMALL DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MVFR CIGS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221734
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 221732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE.

COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE AT THIS
TIME AS WELL DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. FURTHER SOUTH
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

CLEARING IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH THE SUN WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221623
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING
THERMAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221612
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1212 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE.

COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE AT THIS
TIME AS WELL DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. FURTHER SOUTH
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

CLEARING IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH THE SUN WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 221449
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1049 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030AM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE COAL FIELDS AND MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS NORTHERN WV. THE COLD FRONT
IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BUT LOOKS TO BE
ENTERING THE CWA HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD BE HEARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

615 AM UPDATE... SCT SHRA MOVING ALONG AND E OF OH RIVER AS
OF 10Z WITH FRONT STILL HANGING BACK INTO W OH. ADJUSTED HOURLY
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
PREFRONTAL ACTION PUSHES E...WILL LOOK FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG
SURFACE FRONT AS IT CROSSES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

15Z UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.  SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE E INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIENCING A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR IN THE MORE ROBUST SHRA. UPDATING POPS A BIT TO TREND
CLOSER TO RADAR.

SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE JUST A BIT WITH THE FRONT. A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AS NEW MODEL
DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES COME ACROSS MAY TWEAK THOSE A BIT FOR
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AND INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE FRONT EXITS...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT THE TIMING OF
THIS IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/LS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30/LS









000
FXUS61 KILN 221414
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTN. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PCPN MENTION TO JUST
A SIGHT CHC IN THE FAR EAST EARLY. GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY SHARP SFC DEW POINT DRYING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY WHICH
SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER ILNS AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURG THE AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

SMALL DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST VERY LONG WITH MOISTURE DECREASING
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR
VERY SMALL SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT I EXPECT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AS FLOW MOVES IN OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE POST DAWN
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OB...AND RADAR TRENDS.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU AND MAYBE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH WL CLEAR
THE SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE POST DAWN
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OB...AND RADAR TRENDS.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU AND MAYBE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH WL CLEAR
THE SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCLE 221103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS GETTING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT 6 AM. THE
SHOWERS WERE OUT RUNNING THE FRONT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WITH "SHOWERS LIKELY"
NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NW OHIO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH. SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LIMITED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST VERY LONG WITH MOISTURE DECREASING
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS GETTING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT 6 AM. THE
SHOWERS WERE OUT RUNNING THE FRONT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WITH "SHOWERS LIKELY"
NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NW OHIO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH. SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME
IFR SPREAD SE OVER THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY ABOUT NOON AT
CLE...MFD AND CAK AROUND 18Z AND YNG AND ERI AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY VARY TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT... WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
SCT SHRA MOVING ALONG AND E OF OH RIVER AS OF 10Z WITH FRONT STILL
HANGING BACK INTO W OH. ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS PREFRONTAL ACTION PUSHES
E...WILL LOOK FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

-SHRA ACROSS WV WILL SLIDE E INTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z BEFORE
EXITING SHORTLY AFTER. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORE ROBUST SHRA.

SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AFTER 15Z BEFORE PICKING BACK
UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME LOW END VFR CIGS AND 5 TO 6SM VSBY ALONG
THIS AS IT CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS POST FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO
INCLUDE KEKN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF
NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE
ACROSS NE KY/S WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KILN 220907
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
507 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LIMITED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE
INDICATED PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
A FEW STRATOCUMULUS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN FIGHTING
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING ALOFT.

IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE EAST WITH THE SHOWERS
EXITING SOON AFTER. THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NW OHIO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH. SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME
IFR SPREAD SE OVER THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY ABOUT NOON AT
CLE...MFD AND CAK AROUND 18Z AND YNG AND ERI AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY VARY TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT... WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

-SHRA ACROSS N KY AND E OH WILL SLIDE E INTO WV BY 09Z BEFORE
EXITING THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THOUGH AS MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A HIGH DECK.

SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THIS AS IT
CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS POST
FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME MVFR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KEKN AND
PERHAPS EVEN KCKB. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF
NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE
ACROSS NE KY/S WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION THIS EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 220628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH
BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

-SHRA ACROSS N KY AND E OH WILL SLIDE E INTO WV BY 09Z BEFORE
EXITING THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THOUGH AS MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A HIGH DECK.

SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THIS AS IT
CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS POST
FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME MVFR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KEKN AND
PERHAPS EVEN KCKB. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF
NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE
ACROSS NE KY/S WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION THIS EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KILN 220540
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA IS WORKING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM.
THE HRRR...AND THE NAM TO SOME EXTENT...HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AND
THEY MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

KEPT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALONE...FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDES THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE
INDICATED PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
A FEW STRATOCUMULUS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
STILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE WESTERN AREAS DRYING OUT
BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME
IFR SPREAD SE OVER THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY ABOUT NOON AT
CLE...MFD AND CAK AROUND 18Z AND YNG AND ERI AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY VARY TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY TONIGHT
...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON
VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220237
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK. LINE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
INDIANA/OHIO BORDER ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE SE OHIO ZONES AROUND
THE 07Z-08Z TIME FRAME. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE TYGART
RIVER VALLEY A FEW DEGREES.

730 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. KRLX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
DEPICTING ECHOES ALOFT BUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT MUCH MAKING IT BELOW ROUGHLY 10KFT AGL AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE THINKING FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL
BE LOWERING AND THICKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRYING TO FIRE
TO THE WEST OVER KY BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING IN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BIT BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SURVIVE...BUT
THE COLUMN WILL STILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP. KEEPING ANY POPS QUITE
LOW AND CONFINED TO THE WEST FOR THIS REASON.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 15Z...CRW BY 18Z...AND THE
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z.  H500 SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR
SOME PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...SO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z.  LIKELY POPS THEN DRAG ACROSS CWA WITH THE
FRONT.  WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE FRONT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WANES WITH TIME.  SINCE RAIN WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE ANTECEDENT
DRY AIRMASS...QPF LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND .25 INCH.  WITH CAPE
APPROACHING 500 J/KG AND SOME FAVORABLE TIMING...KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER.  NO CHANCE OF SEVERE THOUGH AS SHEAR IS PRETTY
MUCH NONEXISTENT.  SHRA SHOULD EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BOUNDARY AND
HAVE A DRY CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUING THOUGHT OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS.  ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO WELL-CLUSTERED NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH
BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY BUILD IN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH THE MORNING AND TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LOWLANDS ENDING IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OTHERWISE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW END OF VFR THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 04/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...50/CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JM









000
FXUS61 KILN 220207
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA IS WORKING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM.
THE HRRR...AND THE NAM TO SOME EXTENT...HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AND
THEY MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

KEPT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALONE...FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDES THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED SCATTERED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AND ARE
WORKING EWD TOWARDS THE TAFS. BASED ON RADAR IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
INITIAL BATCH HAS SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THEM...SO CARRIED A TEMPO
IN THE WRN TAFS THRU 04-05Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 05Z AS CDFNT SWINGS UP THE OH VALLEY.
AS CDFNT GETS CLOSER CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO KEPT MENTION OF TS OUT FOR NOW. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

EXPECT FROPA BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. CLDS WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS POST
FRONTAL BEFORE SCATTERED OUT QUICKLY BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY POST FRONTAL AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EVIDENT ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
IN WILL TRACK JUST NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
VORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS THE
DRY AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ERODES
AWAY. PUSHED UP THE SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF POPS OVER WRN FLANKS WITH
THIS UPDATE. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OF UNTIL TUES MORNING
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM ITS CURRENT
MIDWEST LOCATION. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ULTIMATELY TOTALING A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EVIDENT ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
IN WILL TRACK JUST NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
VORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS THE
DRY AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ERODES
AWAY. PUSHED UP THE SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF POPS OVER WRN FLANKS WITH
THIS UPDATE. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OF UNTIL TUES MORNING
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM ITS CURRENT
MIDWEST LOCATION. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ULTIMATELY TOTALING A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
STILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE WESTERN AREAS DRYING OUT
BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO EXPECTING IT TO TAKE A WHILE FOR
RAIN TO BEGIN. FDY IS THE EXCEPTION WHERE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03-12Z. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...RANGING FROM
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW. DRY AIR... SUBSIDENCE AND
AN INCREASE IN MIXING WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE CLEARING IS
QUESTIONABLE BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY...WITH WIND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN NW OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KILN 220009
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME ECHO RETURNS
PER KILN RADAR...BUT SINCE THESE ARE FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK...THEY
WERE LIKELY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME INITIAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPR
SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDES THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED SCATTERED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AND ARE
WORKING EWD TOWARDS THE TAFS. BASED ON RADAR IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
INITIAL BATCH HAS SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THEM...SO CARRIED A TEMPO
IN THE WRN TAFS THRU 04-05Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 05Z AS CDFNT SWINGS UP THE OH VALLEY.
AS CDFNT GETS CLOSER CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO KEPT MENTION OF TS OUT FOR NOW. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

EXPECT FROPA BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. CLDS WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS POST
FRONTAL BEFORE SCATTERED OUT QUICKLY BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY POST FRONTAL AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220001
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
801 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. KRLX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
DEPICTING ECHOES ALOFT BUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT MUCH MAKING IT BELOW ROUGHLY 10KFT AGL AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE THINKING FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL
BE LOWERING AND THICKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRYING TO FIRE
TO THE WEST OVER KY BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING IN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BIT BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SURVIVE...BUT
THE COLUMN WILL STILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP. KEEPING ANY POPS QUITE
LOW AND CONFINED TO THE WEST FOR THIS REASON.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 15Z...CRW BY 18Z...AND THE
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z.  H500 SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR
SOME PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...SO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z.  LIKELY POPS THEN DRAG ACROSS CWA WITH THE
FRONT.  WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE FRONT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WANES WITH TIME.  SINCE RAIN WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE ANTECEDENT
DRY AIRMASS...QPF LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND .25 INCH.  WITH CAPE
APPROACHING 500 J/KG AND SOME FAVORABLE TIMING...KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER.  NO CHANCE OF SEVERE THOUGH AS SHEAR IS PRETTY
MUCH NONEXISTENT.  SHRA SHOULD EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BOUNDARY AND
HAVE A DRY CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUING THOUGHT OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS.  ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO WELL-CLUSTERED NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH
BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY BUILD IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH THE MORNING AND TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LOWLANDS ENDING IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OTHERWISE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW END OF VFR THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...50/CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JM









000
FXUS61 KCLE 212353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP NEAR THE OH/IN BORDER. STILL A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP UP A FEW HOURS. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO EXPECTING IT TO TAKE A WHILE FOR
RAIN TO BEGIN. FDY IS THE EXCEPTION WHERE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03-12Z. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...RANGING FROM
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW. DRY AIR... SUBSIDENCE AND
AN INCREASE IN MIXING WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE CLEARING IS
QUESTIONABLE BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY...WITH WIND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN NW OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212246
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP NEAR THE OH/IN BORDER. STILL A
LOT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP UP
A FEW HOURS. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KILN 212026
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME ECHO RETURNS
PER KILN RADAR...BUT SINCE THESE ARE FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK...THEY
WERE LIKELY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME INITIAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPR
SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDS THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. BY
THAT TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO AM KEEPING THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER SUNRISE...CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE
LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 212024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
424 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE THINKING FOR THIS PERIOD.  CLOUDS WILL BE
LOWERING AND THICKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRYING TO FIRE TO THE
WEST OVER KY BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. AFTER
03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BIT
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SURVIVE...BUT THE COLUMN WILL
STILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP.  KEEPING ANY POPS QUITE LOW AND CONFINED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS REASON.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 15Z...CRW BY 18Z...AND THE
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z.  H500 SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR
SOME PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...SO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z.  LIKELY POPS THEN DRAG ACROSS CWA WITH THE
FRONT.  WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE FRONT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WANES WITH TIME.  SINCE RAIN WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE ANTECEDENT
DRY AIRMASS...QPF LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND .25 INCH.  WITH CAPE
APPROACHING 500 J/KG AND SOME FAVORABLE TIMING...KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER.  NO CHANCE OF SEVERE THOUGH AS SHEAR IS PRETTY
MUCH NONEXISTENT.  SHRA SHOULD EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BOUNDARY AND
HAVE A DRY CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUING THOUGHT OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS.  ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO WELL-CLUSTERED NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH
BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.  W/SW WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF A FEW SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT
IN THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT DRY COLUMN COULD EASILY GOBBLE THEM UP
TOO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS.  HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY MENTIONED...WITH CIGS PROBABLY
BOTTOMING OUT AT LOW-END VFR.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT.  CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO BREAK WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY
STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH
OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR
THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...CL

FIRE WEATHER...CL








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KRLX 211817
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE THINKING FOR THIS PERIOD.  CLOUDS WILL BE
LOWERING AND THICKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRYING TO FIRE TO THE
WEST OVER KY BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. AFTER
03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BIT
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SURVIVE...BUT THE COLUMN WILL
STILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP.  KEEPING ANY POPS QUITE LOW AND CONFINED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS REASON.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 15Z...CRW BY 18Z...AND THE
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z.  H500 SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR
SOME PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...SO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z.  LIKELY POPS THEN DRAG ACROSS CWA WITH THE
FRONT.  WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE FRONT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WANES WITH TIME.  SINCE RAIN WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE ANTECEDENT
DRY AIRMASS...QPF LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND .25 INCH.  WITH CAPE
APPROACHING 500 J/KG AND SOME FAVORABLE TIMING...KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER.  NO CHANCE OF SEVERE THOUGH AS SHEAR IS PRETTY
MUCH NONEXISTENT.  SHRA SHOULD EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BOUNDARY AND
HAVE A DRY CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUING THOUGHT OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS.  ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO WELL-CLUSTERED NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.  W/SW WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF A FEW SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT
IN THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT DRY COLUMN COULD EASILY GOBBLE THEM UP
TOO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS.  HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY MENTIONED...WITH CIGS PROBABLY
BOTTOMING OUT AT LOW-END VFR.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT.  CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO BREAK WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY
STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH
OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR
THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...CL

FIRE WEATHER...CL











000
FXUS61 KILN 211731
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 15 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN
THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. BY
THAT TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO AM KEEPING THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER SUNRISE...CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE
LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.  DID TWEAK AFTERNOON
HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN MORNING RAOBS SHOWING H850 TEMPS OF
AROUND 11C...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
STILL EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO DIM WITH TIME AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS GATHER
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.  W/SW WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF A FEW SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT
IN THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT DRY COLUMN COULD EASILY GOBBLE THEM UP
TOO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS.  HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY MENTIONED...WITH CIGS PROBABLY
BOTTOMING OUT AT LOW-END VFR.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT.  CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO BREAK WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY
STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH
OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR
THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...CL

FIRE WEATHER...CL










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 22/02Z. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE FEWER HIGH CLOUDS.

MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST.
NOT SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
GIVES PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
DRY SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS STILL
BACK IN THE UPPER MID WEST. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
ONLY BEING KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LATE ARRIVAL
TONIGHT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A BIG THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY FOR
CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER THERE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR
NIGHT. WE HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I
CANNOT RULE IT OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211636
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE TOLEDO AREA AS EARLY AS 22/02Z. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE FEWER HIGH CLOUDS.

MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST.
NOT SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
GIVES PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
DRY SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS STILL
BACK IN THE UPPER MID WEST. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
ONLY BEING KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LATE ARRIVAL
TONIGHT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A BIG THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY FOR
CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER THERE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR
NIGHT. WE HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I
CANNOT RULE IT OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211620
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE AS
INSOLATION AND LGT WIND SPPRT A TEMP INCRS WELL INTO THE 70S.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD...AND
SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS DURING
THE MRNG. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AFTR
DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG
AS A CDFNT APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE
BNDY WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL
INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211620
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE AS
INSOLATION AND LGT WIND SPPRT A TEMP INCRS WELL INTO THE 70S.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD...AND
SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS DURING
THE MRNG. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AFTR
DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG
AS A CDFNT APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE
BNDY WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL
INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211620
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE AS
INSOLATION AND LGT WIND SPPRT A TEMP INCRS WELL INTO THE 70S.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD...AND
SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS DURING
THE MRNG. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AFTR
DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG
AS A CDFNT APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE
BNDY WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL
INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211620
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE AS
INSOLATION AND LGT WIND SPPRT A TEMP INCRS WELL INTO THE 70S.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD...AND
SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS DURING
THE MRNG. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AFTR
DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG
AS A CDFNT APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE
BNDY WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL
INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KRLX 211403
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1003 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.  DID TWEAK AFTERNOON
HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN MORNING RAOBS SHOWING H850 TEMPS OF
AROUND 11C...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
STILL EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO DIM WITH TIME AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS GATHER
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE A CANOPY OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY WITH SOME MID DECK ALSO
SHOWING UP. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES BUT REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W TOWARD THE END OF
TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY
STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH
OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR
THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
FIRE WEATHER...CL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH.
LTD...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BRIEF BOUT
OF SHWRS DURING THE MRNG. QPF UNDR THIS SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WITH INSOLATION IN WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF FRONT WERE
FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS USING PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS...BUT QUICKL MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT
APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL
MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH.
LTD...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BRIEF BOUT
OF SHWRS DURING THE MRNG. QPF UNDR THIS SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WITH INSOLATION IN WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF FRONT WERE
FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS USING PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS...BUT QUICKL MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT
APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL
MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KCLE 211325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS FILTERING OUT THE
SUN.

MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST.
NOT SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
GIVES PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
DRY SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS STILL
BACK IN THE UPPER MID WEST. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
ONLY BEING KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LATE ARRIVAL
TONIGHT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A BIG THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY FOR
CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER THERE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR
NIGHT. WE HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I
CANNOT RULE IT OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KILN 211303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 15 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN
THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED HOWEVER AND THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT THE END OF TAFS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES EXPECT FOR
KCMH AND KLCK. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KCMH AND KLCK
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211053
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TRACK/FORECAST THE CURRENT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST.
NOT SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
GIVES PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
DRY SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS STILL
BACK IN THE UPPER MID WEST. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
ONLY BEING KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LATE ARRIVAL
TONIGHT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A BIG THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY FOR
CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER THERE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR
NIGHT. WE HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I
CANNOT RULE IT OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KILN 211053
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED HOWEVER AND THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT THE END OF TAFS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES EXPECT FOR
KCMH AND KLCK. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KCMH AND KLCK
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST. NOT
SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS GIVES
PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND DRY
SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY STILL BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS
STILL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS ONLY BEING
KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE FOR CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER
THERE ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RECOVERING MUCH...PERHAPS AN
EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR NIGHT. WE HAVE
THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I CANNOT RULE IT OUT
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS AND LATER MID DECK WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY
TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH
INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS EVENING. WILL PASS ALONG TO
DAY SHIFT FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER FIRE DANGER SPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT
RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA SHOULD IT SURVIVE...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER
TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL
ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE A CANOPY OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY WITH SOME MID DECK ALSO
SHOWING UP. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES BUT REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W TOWARD THE END OF
TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KILN 210842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD EXPECT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE A VCSH MENTION IN AT THE END OF
THE KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN TAFS. KCMH AND KLCK WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD. HAVE VCSH AND THEN SHRA MOVING INTO THE LONGER KCVG
TAF. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL BY THE END
OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 210742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST. NOT
SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS GIVES
PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND DRY
SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY STILL BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS
STILL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS ONLY BEING
KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE FOR CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER
THERE ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RECOVERING MUCH...PERHAPS AN
EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C.
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA.

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR NIGHT. WE HAVE
THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I CANNOT RULE IT OUT
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN SHRA...THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 210719
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT
RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH
FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z
FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A
CANOPY OF CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT
REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS KY AND INTO S WV BY END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30











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