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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261141
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our east will build back west toward the area today
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Removed the chance of thunder for the morning and
adjusted near term temperatures. Otherwise no changes.

Original...A weak short wave now over Indiana will move over Ohio
this morning. At this time not a lot going on with the system to
our west however radar does show showers and thunderstorms to our
northwest over srn lower MI. Showers also into nwrn pa but expect
them to drift northeast of the area early. Other concern is that
the HRRR depicted showers developing and moving into the western
counties early this morning before dissipating. Will bring in a
low chance pop to the west this morning. For the afternoon will
have chance pops most places which is undercutting the mav numbers
and is closer to the met at least in the east. Highs will again be
around 80-83 most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No real change in short term expectations with building heights
and increasing moisture through Saturday. Moisture remains for
Sunday as heights begins to drop off just a bit as a short wave
moves into the central plains. Not a lot of forcing tonight
through Saturday. Current model runs suggest a bit more dynamics
coming into play Saturday night and Sunday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and the upper high shifts east over New
england. For now will go with diurnal trends having chance pops
for the afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Will continue
with chance pops saturday night and Sunday but pops may need to be
raised if short wave continues to focus energy across the area.
temps/humidity summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to show a strong upper level ridge
over the eastern third of the United States. This will promote high
pressure over the East Coast, which will in turn give our area warm,
moist southerly flow in the low levels. Temperatures for the
forecast period will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average hovering
around the 80 degree mark, certainly giving the feeling of summer as
we enter the month of June. However, this warm, moist airmass will
allow for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon with diurnally driven convection and perhaps a weak
shortwave or two going over the upper level ridge. Do note, however,
that no day will be a complete washout as convection would be
isolated/scattered in nature and the possibility of a dry day early
next week is certainly possible. Cloud cover will generally vary
throughout the forecast period as it will be dependent on how much
moisture gets into the region and if any convection develops.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A mid level shortwave trough is sparking some isolated showers
around the Lake Erie region this morning. Along and behind this
trough, some pesky MVFR clouds are moving in, mostly few/scattered
in nature, but occasionally showing up in some observations as a
broken layer. This trough and associated showers and clouds will
move east through the mid to late morning hours. The MVFR clouds
should lift and dissipate with daytime heating and the showers are
extremely isolated in nature that a vicinity shower isn`t
necessary. Winds will be southerly throughout the day today.

After the early afternoon, the forecast gets fairly uncertain,
as models aren`t very bullish on rain/storm chances today. The
remnants of an old storm complex moving across central Illinois
this morning will progress east and will likely dissipate
throughout the day, but there may be some remaining clouds or
light showers that could make it into the area by late day. In
addition, another piece of energy in the mid levels may generate
some scattered rain showers late in the day. Thus, went with a
vicinity shower in the TAFs for the late afternoon into the early
evening following the timing of this mid level wave, but
confidence in timing, coverage, and thunder chances is low and
will need to be monitored at future TAF issuances. For the
overnight, some MVFR fog is possible before daybreak as the
airmass over the region will be fairly saturated. Any sites that
see rainfall on Thursday will be even more likely to see fog
before dawn on Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure begins moving in from the
southeast. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Memorial Day with the exception of a brief period of 10 to
15 knot winds early Friday, which will then likely be followed by a
lake breeze Friday afternoon. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no
small craft advisories are expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic



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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261037
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
637 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern. Slow moving
convection possible Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may eventually
increase shower coverage late Sunday or Monday...especially over mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM Update...
Shower coverage on the slow increase this morning from low to mid
level forcing. All rainfall rates are pretty low with this
activity...and not seeing any lightning.

Previous Discussion...
The center of the upper level ridge off the Atlantic Coast puts us
on the periphery of that ridge...and prone to waves within the weak
synoptic scale flow aloft. All in all...this is not much of a change
from the previous day...as is the fact there is very little in the
way of surface forcing mechanisms. Still have very little in the way
of flow in the lower levels...as well as surface based
instability...although this may be slightly higher across the CWA
given the slightly higher dewpoints expected. Dewpoints will push
the mid 60s by the afternoon hours...but peak heating will once
again be tempered somewhat by variable cloud cover. The end result
is slight to low chance POPS with low confidence of
thunder...although this was added to the showers for a few hours
this afternoon. SPC day one outlook has the CWA well entrenched in
the area of general thunder...no change from the previous issuance
in terms of our area. No severe weather expected in the near term.

Temperatures continue to creep upwards...with only cosmetic changes
to these for the most part for max temperatures today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very weak flow on Friday...tries to increase just slightly on
Saturday...with no fronts in sight.

As a result...no significant mid level disturbances to latch onto.
Will try to have the higher pops Friday over the central mountains
counties...and forming first...with the differential heating. As
mentioned yesterday... can still picture convection over the
southern mountains late afternoon trying to drift north into
southern coal fields and toward Hts or Crw. So left chance pops
over the southern lowlands well into the warm Friday evening.
Localized/isolated downpours can occur under this slow moving
convection on Friday afternoon and evening with precipitable water
around 1.5 inches.

Forecast model soundings showing more instability Saturday
afternoon...while drier air aloft tries to move northwest into
the mountain counties during Saturday afternoon and evening. So
chance pops just as high in the western lowlands Saturday...when
compared to mountains. Again...isolated downpours Saturday
afternoon and evening...probably western lowlands.

On Sunday we are still looking south and southeast. Disturbance
along Carolina coast may increase moisture late Sunday into Monday
and hold down temperatures...especially along eastern slopes.

Temperature wise...forecast a few more 90 degree reading Friday
afternoon if convection holds off until evening for the southern
river valleys like Logan Louisa...Charleston...and Huntington.

At this distance...with weak downslope winds west of the mountains...
we did not lower maximum temperature forecast on Sunday in the western
lowlands as much as...say the 00z Gfs mex guidance suggests.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summer like weather will continue during the period as an upper
level ridge remains over the area. Warm afternoons and cool nights
will be the rule. There could be some convection Saturday night
due to afternoon heating and juicy airmass.

The upper level ridge hold until Sunday before drifting off the
east coast. Continue with low chance for the remainder of the
period especially during the afternoons.

A developing tropical system approaches South Carolina by Tuesday
morning. It is a little early to have high confidence on the track
of this system. Will monitor the development and track of this
tropical system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers with thunder possible after 16Z
expected today...but the chances do not warrant prevailing
conditions of SHRA at this time. Therefore...the forecast is
VFR through 03Z Friday under cumulus formation in the 4-5kft
range with another mid level deck possible. Chances for late
mist...possibly down to IFR at times...returns. Light surface flow
less than 10kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is
possible...requiring amendments or short duration TEMPOs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge
in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS
hydrologist is working to correct this problem.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCLE 260926
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
530 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our east will build back west toward the area today
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A weak short wave now over Indiana will move over ohio this
morning. At this time not a lot going on with the system to our
west however radar does show showers and thunderstorms to our
northwest over srn lower MI. Showers also into nwrn pa but expect
them to drift northeast of the area early. Other concern is that
the HRRR depicted showers developing and moving into the western
counties early this morning before dissipating. Will bring in a
low chance pop to the west this morning. For the afternoon will
have chance pops most places which is undercutting the mav numbers
and is closer to the met at least in the east. Highs will again be
around 80-83 most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No real change in short term expectations with building heights
and increasing moisture through Saturday. Moisture remains for
Sunday as heights begins to drop off just a bit as a short wave
moves into the central plains. Not a lot of forcing tonight
through Saturday. Current model runs suggest a bit more dynamics
coming into play Saturday night and Sunday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and the upper high shifts east over New
england. For now will go with diurnal trends having chance pops
for the afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Will continue
with chance pops saturday night and Sunday but pops may need to
be raised if short wave continues to focus energy across the area.
temps/humidity summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to show a strong upper level ridge
over the eastern third of the United States. This will promote high
pressure over the East Coast, which will in turn give our area warm,
moist southerly flow in the low levels. Temperatures for the
forecast period will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average hovering
around the 80 degree mark, certainly giving the feeling of summer as
we enter the month of June. However, this warm, moist airmass will
allow for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon with diurnally driven convection and perhaps a weak
shortwave or two going over the upper level ridge. Do note, however,
that no day will be a complete washout as convection would be
isolated/scattered in nature and the possibility of a dry day early
next week is certainly possible. Cloud cover will generally vary
throughout the forecast period as it will be dependent on how much
moisture gets into the region and if any convection develops.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes is
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across lower
Michigan and has initiated some pop-up showers across northern
Indiana/NW Ohio and another cluster in far NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania, which will impact KERI right at 2 AM. General
thinking is that the large area of convection will miss to the
north of all TAF sites and only the pop-up type showers have any
chance of impacting any TAF site. However, given the nature of
these pop-up showers, any confidence in timing and coverage is
low. Therefore, continued with a vicinity shower for all sites for
a brief period and removed any mention of thunder. Model guidance
is pointing to MVFR ceilings and visibilities around daybreak, but
they have all pointed to wet conditions overnight tonight. Given
that there is good chance that any particular TAF site will remain dry,
kept all of the TAFs VFR, but if any rain develops over a site,
will certainly need to monitor for any MVFR fog or stratus.
Southerly winds will continue through the period reaching 10
knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure begins moving in from the
southeast. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Memorial Day with the exception of a brief period of 10 to
15 knot winds early Friday, which will then likely be followed by a
lake breeze Friday afternoon. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no
small craft advisories are expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260847
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
447 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern. Slow moving
convection possible Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may eventually
increase shower coverage late Sunday or Monday...especially over mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The center of the upper level ridge off the Atlantic Coast puts us
on the periphery of that ridge...and prone to waves within the weak
synoptic scale flow aloft. All in all...this is not much of a change
from the previous day...as is the fact there is very little in the
way of surface forcing mechanisms. Still have very little in the way
of flow in the lower levels...as well as surface based
instability...although this may be slightly higher across the CWA
given the slightly higher dewpoints expected. Dewpoints will push
the mid 60s by the afternoon hours...but peak heating will once
again be tempered somewhat by variable cloud cover. The end result
is slight to low chance POPS with low confidence of
thunder...although this was added to the showers for a few hours
this afternoon. SPC day one outlook has the CWA well entrenched in
the area of general thunder...no change from the previous issuance
in terms of our area. No severe weather expected in the near term.

Temperatures continue to creep upwards...with only cosmetic changes
to these for the most part for max temperatures today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very weak flow on Friday...tries to increase just slightly on
Saturday...with no fronts in sight.

As a result...no significant mid level disturbances to latch onto.
Will try to have the higher pops Friday over the central mountains
counties...and forming first...with the differential heating. As
mentioned yesterday... can still picture convection over the
southern mountains late afternoon trying to drift north into
southern coal fields and toward Hts or Crw. So left chance pops
over the southern lowlands well into the warm Friday evening.
Localized/isolated downpours can occur under this slow moving
convection on Friday afternoon and evening with precipitable water
around 1.5 inches.

Forecast model soundings showing more instability Saturday
afternoon...while drier air aloft tries to move northwest into
the mountain counties during Saturday afternoon and evening. So
chance pops just as high in the western lowlands Saturday...when
compared to mountains. Again...isolated downpours Saturday
afternoon and evening...probably western lowlands.

On Sunday we are still looking south and southeast. Disturbance
along Carolina coast may increase moisture late Sunday into Monday
and hold down temperatures...especially along eastern slopes.

Temperature wise...forecast a few more 90 degree reading Friday
afternoon if convection holds off until evening for the southern
river valleys like Logan Louisa...Charleston...and Huntington.

At this distance...with weak downslope winds west of the mountains...
we did not lower maximum temperature forecast on Sunday in the western
lowlands as much as...say the 00z Gfs mex guidance suggests.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summer like weather will continue during the period as an upper
level ridge remains over the area. Warm afternoons and cool nights
will be the rule. There could be some convection Saturday night
due to afternoon heating and juicy airmass.

The upper level ridge hold until Sunday before drifting off the
east coast. Continue with low chance for the remainder of the
period especially during the afternoons.

A developing tropical system approaches South Carolina by Tuesday
morning. It is a little early to have high confidence on the track
of this system. Will monitor the development and track of this
tropical system.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief MVFR mist at some locations through 12Z...bouncing back
quickly to VFR through the day. Showers possible after
12z...moving southwest to northeast through 22Z. No prevailing
categories for this activity...so amendments may be needed in
increasing coverage.

Mist development after 04Z Friday is possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 05/26/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge
in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS
hydrologist is working to correct this problem.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26
HYDROLOGY...KTB



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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260722
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
322 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak shortwave is progged to cross the region today. Scattered
showers are expected with its approach and passage, with
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases
with daytime heating. Temperatures are expected to reach 5 to 10
degrees above seasonal levels. The near term forecast was adjusted
using the latest near term model guidance and observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending
any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is
then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture
and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the
ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and
thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to
the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the
short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and
consensus blend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and look to
be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak disturbance
today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity shower/thunderstorm"
mention will thus be maintained, but with tweaks using the latest
high resolution model runs with GFS and NAM consensus/persistence.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15



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000
FXUS61 KILN 260609
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal
through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and
occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will
lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak upper level disturbance was helping to provide a few showers
across portions of central and south central Ohio this afternoon.
Disturbance will shift to the east through late afternoon, and
scattered showers will follow suit.

Behind this disturbance, there is not a whole lot activity going
on underneath plenty of mid/high level clouds within the immediate
CWA. As such...there is not a lot instability to work with
through late afternoon. We can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm mainly across the west/southwest portion of the CWA
where there are a few breaks, but the balance of the late
afternoon should be dry.

This evening into the overnight hours, guidance suggests another
upper level disturbance moving into/through the Ohio Valley and
lifting to the northeast. Expect at least scattered showers to
make their way into the western CWA and therefore pops have been
bumped to high chance in this area, with lower pops remaining
further east as there is question as to how far east showers make
it before they may dissipate late at night. Can`t rule out thunder
particularly across the Tri-State area/western CWA this evening
either but overall trend will be for activity that develops to
weaken after dark and would primarily be in the form of showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
We remain in a similar pattern Thursday/Thursday night, being on
the western edge of a ridge and south/southwest flow maintaining a
warm and also somewhat moist air mass throughout the Ohio Valley.

We may begin Thursday with plenty of clouds before the
aforementioned upper level disturbance moves outside of the CWA.
With some breaks in the afternoon, there should be enough
instability for a few mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms but overall forcing looks weak and therefore kept
pops in the slight chance to low chance range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The certainties of this period revolve around warmer and more humid
conditions than normal for late May and early June /high confidence/
and a rather unsettled sensible weather period /moderate confidence/.

In the details...at 12Z Friday there is strong clustering/agreement
among NCEP/non-NCEP deterministic and ensemble data showing a rather
amplified/blocky flow structure across the CONUS. Features of
interest will be an evolving/cutoff/closed upper trough off the
southeast US coast...and negative height anomalies in the nations
mid-section in association with continued longwave troughing
underneath ridging across the US/Canadian border north in cntl
Canada. Of particular interest...as the deep layered trough
continues to develop off the southeast US coast...will be ridging
developing on the north/west side of this feature...and downstream
of the negative height anomalies in the cntl US. This has direct
implications on Ohio Valley temp/precip trends.

Unfortunately...once we remove the certainties that Friday-Wed will
be warm/seasonably moist in the boundary layer with daily highs in
the 80s and nighttime lows in the 60s with dew points in the lower-
mid 60s...there/s not much to hang our hats on in terms of sensible
weather predictability. The presence of the continued
troughing/negative anomalies in the cntl US will keep a weak swly
mid layer flow directed into the Great Lakes...thus convectively
produced/enhanced perturbations will be a constant threat to evolve
east out of plains convective systems. These will inherently run
into a height/flow pattern on the nwrn side of the developing sern
CONUS trough that will not be conducive to organized/strong
lift...and ridging over the Appalachians/Great Lakes will be
reinforced. End result - there/s a lack of surface boundaries and/or
appreciable stronger s/w troughs moving through the flow to produce
more enhanced/higher predictability periods of vertical motion.
Thus...precipitation chances will be driven in a very weakly forced
manner under marginal flows and instabilities. Thus...there is no
choice but to run 20-40% chances of showers/storms each day with the
notion that many hours will be dry...and many locations could go
several days without seeing rain. A true summertime pattern. It
would seem that weak height falls centered later Sunday into Monday
with the passage of a very subtle low-level boundary may afford the
opportunity to introduce higher rain chances in coming
forecasts...but forcing is so weak and soundings unimpressive enough
from a shear/instby perspective that it gets tough to justify it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main forecast concern for the TAF period will be the potential
for MVFR cigs developing before daybreak as a weak mid-level
disturbance interacts with a moist airmass. Low level moisture
has increased substantially over the past 24 hours, and models
(although slightly overdoing the moisture) all indicate an MVFR
deck developing over western Indiana and expanding eastward into
Ohio and northern KY early this morning. Current upstream
observations along IL/IN border confirm this is plausible, but the
main question will be how expansive this deck will become. Can`t
rule out some brief BR at KLUK by daybreak and perhaps a few
spotty showers developing.

Models are slow to mix out the low levels during the day on
Thursday, suggesting the MVFR deck may linger into early
afternoon before scattering out and lifting. Instability will
increase Thursday afternoon, but with very little forcing to be
found did not include any showers/storms in the TAFs. Winds will
remain out of the SSW around 10 knots or less through the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...Kurz




000
FXUS61 KCLE 260546
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mechanism for significant forcing lacking so still see only sct
coverage tonight as weak s/w works ne into the cwa late tonight.
Marginally unstable enough for some thunder but much of the
convection will probably just be shra. A few locations could see a
quarter of an inch of rainfall but most of the cwa that gets
rain will see a tenth of an inch or less.

Low temps will be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints
continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes is
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across lower
Michigan and has initiated some pop-up showers across northern
Indiana/NW Ohio and another cluster in far NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania, which will impact KERI right at 2 AM. General
thinking is that the large area of convection will miss to the
north of all TAF sites and only the pop-up type showers have any
chance of impacting any TAF site. However, given the nature of
these pop-up showers, any confidence in timing and coverage is
low. Therefore, continued with a vicinity shower for all sites for
a brief period and removed any mention of thunder. Model guidance
is pointing to MVFR ceilings and visibilities around daybreak, but
they have all pointed to wet conditions overnight tonight. Given
that there is good chance that any particular TAF site will remain dry,
kept all of the TAFs VFR, but if any rain develops over a site,
will certainly need to monitor for any MVFR fog or stratus.
Southerly winds will continue through the period reaching 10
knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Lombardy




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252317
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
717 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance may provide a few showers late tonight. A warm
and increasingly humid air mass arrives for tomorrow and remains
through the weekend, with rain chances each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530pm update...have pushed inclusion of pops later into the
overnight hours as a lack of lift, and very dry air near the
surface, is preventing the development of showers. Have updated
overnight temperatures with the latest hires guidance.

Previous discussion...

A weak wave will slowly make its way across the area tonight and
Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low overnight, owing to
an overall lack of moisture and lift. Dewpoints will be on the
increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile.
Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during this period.

Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and
Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model
differences.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions overnight into thursday as only mid deck will be
across the region. An isolated shower is possible overnight but
not enough coverage to include in tafs. By mid afternoon thursday
increasing low level moisture and a weak shortwave looks to bring
isolated to scattered scattered thunderstorms. for now kept
previous vcts at all ports. Winds will be light southwest through
the period.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH monday/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 251906
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Starting to see some pop up showers over the southwest end of the
area. This precip is associated with an upper short wave that will
try to lift across the area tonight. At the other end of the
forecast area...the atmosphere remains capped and skies are
cumulus free. Expect the precip to expand slightly over the west
this evening. May even get some thunder as dewpoints have climbed
into the upper 50s. Better chances for precip will occur after
midnight...especially across the north as some slight cooling
aloft is expected in response to the wave. The GFS MOS is giving
categorical pops overnight. Given the airmass...coverage will be
more scattered than anything so will go with chance type pops.
Places like MFD and CAK may remain completely dry. Low temps will
be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
An upper level disturbance will move east across the area late
tonight and there is the threat for thunderstorms with this
feature. Expecting thunderstorms to arrive after midnight in the
west and toward sunrise in the east as the upper level feature
moves from west to east. Some lingering clouds will follow the
thunderstorms in the morning and then gradually improve to some
high cirrus clouds by mid day. Winds should be around 7 to 10
knots from the southwest through the period most areas but light
and variable in the west overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy




000
FXUS61 KRLX 251833
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances within ridge aloft today into Thursday. Ridge
stronger Friday/Saturday.  Southeast flow may eventually increase
shower coverage Sunday into Monday...especially over mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather returns for the near-term period...high pressure
at the surface with upper ridge across eastern US...with above
normal temperatures...and increasing relative humidity. Several
weak upper disturbances will affect the region during
period...one this afternoon/evening...increasing chances of
showers and storms mainly across far western zones. Thunderstorms
will be isolated at best owing to weak instability and cloud cover
inhibiting convection. Initial wave will weaken as it crosses area
but additional waves expected tonight and tomorrow...which will
trigger additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With lack of strong dynamics no severe storms expected.

Tonight will be warmer as dew points and cloud cover increases
with upper-level disturbance. Continued above average
temperatures with rebounding heights for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will extend from the OH Valley east across the
Appalachians into the mid Atlantic coast. Upper level ridge is also
evident in models suggesting mainly fair weather in the short term.
There is no major system affecting the area during this period.
However, can expect afternoon convection produced by a combination
of diurnal heating, differential heating and occasional vorticity
max through at least Saturday. The NAM models show sfc based CAPE
exceeding 2000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours on Friday and
Saturday with precipitable water around 1.7 inches.The flow becomes
southeast Saturday pushing a boundary, evident in GFS H700 Theta-e
packed gradient field,north under south southeast flow. This will be
a high CAPE, low deep layer shear environment. Coded thunder for
CAPE equal and greater than 2000 J/Kg. Some storms can produce heavy
downpours conducive to localized water problems.

Went mainly with the super blend guidance for temperatures through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through period with light surface winds.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after 20Z
creating low VFR or isolated MVFR conditions. Bulk of convection
decrease after 02Z with loss of heating but will redevelop
Thursday after 16Z.

Patchy low VFR fog possible sheltered mountain valleys such as at
KEKN late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 251804
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
204 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances within ridge aloft today into Thursday. Ridge
stronger Friday/Saturday.  Southeast flow may eventually increase
shower coverage Sunday into Monday...especially over mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather returns for the near-term period...high pressure
at the surface with upper ridge across eastern US...with above
normal temperatures...and increasing relative humidity. Several
weak upper disturbances will affect the region during
period...one this afternoon/evening...increasing chances of
showers and storms mainly across far western zones. Thunderstorms
will be isolated at best owing to weak instability and cloud cover
inhibiting convection. Initial wave will weaken as it crosses area
but additional waves expected tonight and tomorrow...which will
trigger additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With lack of strong dynamics no severe storms expected.

Tonight will be warmer as dew points and cloud cover increases
with upper-level disturbance. Continued above average
temperatures with rebounding heights for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Certainly hard to grasp any significant feature and run with it.
Will have to wait until these time periods get into the near
term...and try to get more specific.  So...as of now...hourly pops
certainly can not get out of the chance range.

Weak mid/upper level disturbances linger Thursday...before 500 mb
heights increase slightly Thursday night into Friday.  Most of the
moisture plume in the lower Ohio Valley should remain to our west
through Saturday.

Yet...the precipitable water still jump back to around 1.25 inches
Thursday and Friday.  Then the southeast flow actually brings drier
air aloft on Saturday...lowering the precipitable water.

A weak flow dominates with afternoon and evening instability...so
reserved the mention of thunder for the afternoon and evening hours.
In the weak flow...tried to have the higher chance pops on Thursday
over the mountain counties. On Friday afternoon and evening...some
hints on both the 00z gfs and 00z nam that if some convective cells
form the southern mountains...it may try to drift north...off the
mountains into the southern lowlands.

Figuring a breeze stirs overnight Thursday night in southeast
Ohio...so have minimum temperatures a bit higher there. Otherwise...
in the light winds...have minimum temperatures a bit below guidance
in the hollers further south and east...but leftover clouds could
hurt that thinking.

We still have some 90 degree temperatures on Saturday...in the
southern river valleys...as that mentioned drying aloft occurs.  Of
course...most official temperature sites in the lowlands have not
reached 90 degrees yet this year.

Due to a weak southeast flow...maximum temperatures along the
eastern slopes...including the southern plateau around
Beckley...are not forecast to be higher Saturday compared to Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through period with light surface winds.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after 20Z
creating low VFR or isolated MVFR conditions. Bulk of convection
decrease after 02Z with loss of heating but will redevelop
Thursday after 16Z.

Patchy low VFR fog possible sheltered mountain valleys such as at
KEKN late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/AJV
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL/AJV




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251803
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
203 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance may provide a few showers tonight. A warm and
increasingly humid air mass arrives for Wednesday and remains
through the weekend, with rain chances each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cap continues to hold across most of the area this afternoon,
as evidenced by the overall lack of cumulus. The current exception
is in areas from near ZZV on west, closer to a weak midlevel wave,
where a band of showers has managed to form.

That weak wave will make its way slowly across the area into
Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low tonight into
Thursday morning owing to an overall lack of moisture and support
for lift. Dewpoints will be on the increase by midday and into the
afternoon however. This will combine with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft to crate a more favorably unstable profile.
Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during this period.

Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and
Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model
differences.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across
southeast Ohio, but any restriction would be very brief. A
slightly more organized threat of rain will occur later tonight
and into Thursday morning as a weak disturbance moves across, but
chances remain too low to include restrictions in TAFs. Towards
the end of the TAF period on Thursday, a bit more numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in an increasingly
unstable airmass. It is still too early to pin down location and
timing, but restrictions will be more possible by then.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 251746
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal
through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and
occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will
lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today.
This will initially bring a chance of showers along with an
increase in cloud cover. There could be enough instability for an
isolated thunderstorm late in the day, but that is looking
doubtful at this time considering altocumulus cloud shield. Highs
will range from the upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great
Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the
overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the
short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over
the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in
south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term
period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid
80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good
destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the
back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these
will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of
forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak upper level disturbance will exit the eastern terminals over
the next few hours, along with the spotty light showers occurring
with it.

For tonight, persistent southwest flow aloft will continue.
Another embedded disturbance is forecast to past east across the
region. High resolution models suggest convective development to
our west late this afternoon and evening across Illinois and
Indiana. Then, with the gradual loss of diurnal instability, and
the lack of strong forcing, precipitation with this feature should
decrease in coverage as it moves into our region. Have included a
vcsh for western terminals and left it out for the eastern
terminals. Predominate conditions should remain VFR, except for
kluk where some partial clearing late may allow some river fog to
form. Have kept conditions MVFR there for now.

On Thursday, upper level southwesterly flow will continue. We may
end up being in a lull in terms of embedded disturbances rippling
through the flow. Thus...some scattered to broken cumulus is
expected with perhaps an isolated shower or storm popping up in
the heat of the day.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Hickman




000
FXUS61 KCLE 251131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the
area from the east Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Pushed any mention of precip into the afternoon. Also
increased cloud cover a bit through the morning with decently
thick cirrus moving across the area. Adjusted near term temps and
dewpoints.

Original...Skies clear across the area early this morning but am
concerned about convective development today as a short wave over
Indiana/Illinois area drifts east. Models bring this feature into
the area today with increasing moisture. capes increase to around
1200 j/kg in the west on the NAM with LI`s around -3 to -4 west
and south on the GFS. The GFS guidance does take pops up to around
50% west today while the NAM is essentially dry. Given the
building upper ridge dont want to go too high with ops but will
split the difference and call for mid chance category pops west
and south. lower numbers elsewhere. highs will get into the lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
tonight a cold front will approach from the nne. Current model
guidance from the NAM12 suggests it does not make it into the
area. Basically tonight through Saturday not a lot of change with
low pressure to our west and high pressure off the mid Atlantic
coast extending west toward the area. Pattern supports a
continued increase in rh through the period as heights build. Will
have highest pops in the afternoons and evenings with a diurnal
drop off overnight. Highs will be in the 80s and all in
all...quite summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Humid conditions area expected through the long term period. Warm
temperatures and the elevated moisture levels will keep
isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances going the entire period.
However it does appear we can limit them to the afternoon and
evening. Cloud cover will vary by the amount of thunderstorms that
can develop each day. This convective debris cloudiness could impact
highs each day by a few degrees.

Highs will generally be 80 to 85 degrees which is around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface
pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as
far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact
locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a
west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust
around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the
southwest wind should be around 10 knots.

Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through
the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially
across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this
morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could
generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this
potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and
KMFD.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure
gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland
today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of
Cleveland.

Southwest winds today will become more south to southeast for
Thursday through Saturday night. It appears there will be a lake
breeze both Friday and Saturday afternoon. This onshore flow will
likely build waves for a few hours each afternoon. Waves will not
exceed 2 to 3 feet. There will be an isolated/scattered thunderstorm
threat each afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen




000
FXUS61 KRLX 251035
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances within ridge aloft today into Thursday. Ridge
stronger Friday/Saturday.  Southeast flow may eventually increase
shower coverage Sunday into Monday...especially over mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM Update...
No changes this morning. Have cirrus advection aloft ahead of the
first upper level disturbance aloft to the southwest.

Previous Discussion...
Seeing increases in dewpoints this today...topping the 60s in the
western zones in the transition to a warmer and higher moisture
content airmass. Now under the influence of weak ridging aloft...a
couple of weak waves within the flow suggests convection today. But
the upper level feature does not have much in the way of surface
forcing...and mid and upper level moisture are expected to
overspread the CWA simultaneously. These factors will limit the
coverage today...with an early peak to the activity to the western
zones because of the dampening of the upper level wave. There will
be some CAPE out there...but little low level flow and the
aforementioned clouds limit thunder activity.

NAM indicates a few more weak disturbances this evening and
tonight...so largely held low chances through the near term. POPS
come up to chance late tonight with small scale frontogenesis
developing over the northeastern zones.

Held the western zones back a couple of degrees on the high
temperatures today...and went slightly higher than guidance tonight
on overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Certainly hard to grasp any significant feature and run with it.
Will have to wait until these time periods get into the near
term...and try to get more specific.  So...as of now...hourly pops
certainly can not get out of the chance range.

Weak mid/upper level disturbances linger Thursday...before 500 mb
heights increase slightly Thursday night into Friday.  Most of the
moisture plume in the lower Ohio Valley should remain to our west
through Saturday.

Yet...the precipitable water still jump back to around 1.25 inches
Thursday and Friday.  Then the southeast flow actually brings drier
air aloft on Saturday...lowering the precipitable water.

A weak flow dominates with afternoon and evening instability...so
reserved the mention of thunder for the afternoon and evening hours.
In the weak flow...tried to have the higher chance pops on Thursday
over the mountain counties. On Friday afternoon and evening...some
hints on both the 00z gfs and 00z nam that if some convective cells
form the southern mountains...it may try to drift north...off the
mountains into the southern lowlands.

Figuring a breeze stirs overnight Thursday night in southeast
Ohio...so have minimum temperatures a bit higher there. Otherwise...
in the light winds...have minimum temperatures a bit below guidance
in the hollers further south and east...but leftover clouds could
hurt that thinking.

We still have some 90 degree temperatures on Saturday...in the
southern river valleys...as that mentioned drying aloft occurs.  Of
course...most official temperature sites in the lowlands have not
reached 90 degrees yet this year.

Due to a weak southeast flow...maximum temperatures along the
eastern slopes...including the southern plateau around
Beckley...are not forecast to be higher Saturday compared to Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR ceilings and visibilities prevail today despite the passage of
a few weak upper level disturbances today and tonight. These may
kick off showers...and in the isolated instance thunder...but
chances are too low to warrant prevailing or TEMPO conditions in
the TAF. Some low level VFR cumulus could form after 16Z...but
expect mid and upper level moisture to increase through the day.
This moisture will become the prevailing ceiling...especially in
the evening and overnight. Clouds tonight will keep fog from
forming.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251014
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
614 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today.
Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No changes were needed for the dawn update.

Previous...
Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Slight to low
chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward
evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave
approaches. Temperatures are expected to average around 10
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak shortwave is progged to complete it`s passage across the
region tonight, with shower chances continuing. A few early
evening thunderstorms are possible with marginal instability
across Ohio. Another weak crossing shortwave Thursday should
maintain shower and thunderstorm chances across the area.

Moisture and instability should continue to increase in southwest
flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS
ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend
should continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels expected using the latest GFS MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble progs indicate the east coast ridging should persist through
early next week. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances through the period. Temperatures should continue averaging
10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend
guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and
to smooth out day to day operational model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR can be expected through today, but there is a chance for
degradation by tonight as a weak disturbance supports scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a
"vicinity shower" mention at ZZV and MGW given more favorable
dynamic and moisture return prognosis for those terminals.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250725 CCA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
325 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today.
Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Slight to low
chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward
evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave
approaches. Temperatures are expected to average around 10
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak shortwave is progged to complete it`s passage across the
region tonight, with shower chances continuing. A few early
evening thunderstorms are possible with marginal instability
across Ohio. Another weak crossing shortwave Thursday should
maintain shower and thunderstorm chances across the area.

Moisture and instability should continue to increase in southwest
flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS
ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend
should continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels expected using the latest GFS MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble progs indicate the east coast ridging should persist through
early next week. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances through the period. Temperatures should continue averaging
10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend
guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and
to smooth out day to day operational model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR can be expected through today, but there is a chance for
degradation by tonight as a weak disturbance supports scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a
"vicinity shower" mention given a lack of confidence in convection
coverage.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15




000
FXUS61 KCLE 250714
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the
area from the east Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies clear across the area early this morning but am concerned
about convective development today as a short wave over
Indiana/Illinois area drifts east. Models bring this feature into
the area today with increasing moisture. capes increase to around
1200 j/kg in the west on the NAM with LI`s around -3 to -4 west
and south on the GFS. The GFS guidance does take pops up to around
50% west today while the NAM is essentially dry. Given the
building upper ridge dont want to go too high with ops but will
split the difference and call for mid chance category pops west
and south. lower numbers elsewhere. highs will get into the lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
tonight a cold front will approach from the nne. Current model
guidance from the NAM12 suggests it does not make it into the
area. Basically tonight through Saturday not a lot of change with
low pressure to our west and high pressure off the mid Atlantic
coast extending west toward the area. Pattern supports a
continued increase in rh through the period as heights build. Will
have highest pops in the afternoons and evenings with a diurnal
drop off overnight. Highs will be in the 80s and all in
all...quite summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Humid conditions area expected through the long term period. Warm
temperatures and the elevated moisture levels will keep
isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances going the entire period.
However it does appear we can limit them to the afternoon and
evening. Cloud cover will vary by the amount of thunderstorms that
can develop each day. This convective debris cloudiness could impact
highs each day by a few degrees.

Highs will generally be 80 to 85 degrees which is around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface
pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as
far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact
locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a
west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust
around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the
southwest wind should be around 10 knots.

Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through
the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially
across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this
morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could
generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this
potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and
KMFD.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure
gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland
today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of
Cleveland.

Southwest winds today will become more south to southeast for
Thursday through Saturday night. It appears there will be a lake
breeze both Friday and Saturday afternoon. This onshore flow will
likely build waves for a few hours each afternoon. Waves will not
exceed 2 to 3 feet. There will be an isolated/scattered thunderstorm
threat each afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen




000
FXUS61 KILN 250613
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
213 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region tonight. Clouds and
moisture will begin to move into the area tomorrow morning, and
chances for showers and storms will increase going through the
rest of the week, as occasional shortwave troughs move through the
mean southwesterly flow. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm, and are expected to remain above normal through the next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A broad low pressure in the high plains and an area of high
pressure across the Carolinas will continue to provide a weak
surface gradient across the Ohio Valley. This will result in light
southerly winds through the overnight period.

A weak mid level disturbance will approach the area by daybreak
Wednesday, allowing for clouds to begin to filter in. Expect that
temperatures will drop most rapidly during the first half of the
night, then plateau somewhat as clouds begin to move in. Temperatures will
bottom out in the mid 50s across the east where mostly clear
skies are expected for the majority of the overnight period. Lows
near 60 are expected across the Tri-State area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The general pattern for the next few days can be characterized by
broad ridging over the southeastern states, with general WSW flow
at the mid-levels from the desert southwest into the great lakes
states. At the surface, the pressure gradient will gradually
become tighter, but not markedly so -- surface winds will likely
remain in the 10-15 knot range (at most) on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Overall, with weak flow through the depth of the
atmosphere over the Ohio Valley, there remain no clear signals for
sustained or organized forcing. This makes the convective forecast
very reliant on weak mid-level shortwave troughs, which will
occasionally pass across the ridge, moving through the region from
WSW to ENE. PoPs have been kept in the 20-40 percent range through
the entire period, with the understanding that near-term and
first-period forecast updates will eventually need to raise these
chances on a short-term basis.

The first shortwave -- with a fair amount of timing agreement -- is
expected to move into the region on Wednesday morning. Instability
will only be beginning to increase, as this shortwave will also be
accompanied by some 925mb-850mb theta-e advection, paving the way
for an increase in boundary layer moisture through the next
several days. Initial activity is unlikely to contain thunder on
Wednesday morning, but building instability (MLCAPE ranging from
1500 J/kg in central Indiana to 500 J/kg in central Ohio) will
eventually support convective development. With the weak forcing
and slight capping, only marginal storm coverage is expected, with
little to no organization.

Instability will become more pronounced on Thursday, as surface
dewpoints increase into the mid 60s, and temperatures continue to
increase only below 700mb (leading to steeper lapse rates in the
mid-levels). However, NAM/GFS soundings indicate a likely cap at
around 875mb, which will make storm development difficult without
the help of some forcing. As has been mentioned, there is next to
zero certainty in timing of any shortwaves at this point in the
forecast, so any storm development is expected to remain isolated.
Wind flow is also expected to be at a near-minimum on Thursday,
which all adds up to too low of confidence to include any threat
for strong storms in the HWO -- when it remains a possibility that
the day could remain mostly dry for the ILN CWA. With that said,
the high amounts of instability being forecast (SBCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg) deserve a mention in this discussion, alongside
the acknowledgment that said instability may go mostly
unrealized.

Temperatures will continue a very gradual rise from Tuesday to
Wednesday to Thursday, as low-level warm advection allows for
increasing potential for warmth -- though additional moisture will
also lead to diurnal cloud development. The warmest temperatures
will continue to be forecast in the southeastern CWA, where cloud
influence is likely to be lower. It should be noted that these
temperature forecasts (lower 80s on Wednesday / lower-to-mid 80s
on Thursday) could be too high if areas of convection are able to
occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure sits off to our southeast while a mid-level
disturbance currently over lower Ohio Valley will head our
direction later this morning. The 25.00Z ILN sounding confirms a
very dry airmass near the surface, but southerly flow will
continue to draw increasing moisture into the region through the
day today. Mid level clouds will increase from the southwest
towards daybreak. Given the current dry airmass and expected
increase in cloud cover, opted not to include any BR at KLUK, but
cannot entirely rule out a brief period of minor, shallow BR
there before daybreak.

Aforementioned weak mid-level disturbance may provide enough lift
for spotty showers to affect western terminals after 11Z this
morning, as latest hi-res models continue to show. This activity
would weaken as it progresses northeastward toward the Columbus
terminals this afternoon. With only weak forcing, do not expect
more than scattered coverage, so have only gone with VCSH. Also
cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in
response to daytime heating, but have left out of TAFs due to low
confidence in timing and location. Winds through the TAF period
will be generally out of the south, increasing a bit this
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Kurz




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250532
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with
isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 pm update. No significant change.

Previous discussion...
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
deeper valleys.

Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.

Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave
trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less
focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow
contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance
range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in
the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.

Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday
night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the
slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday.

Temperatures were close to the latest guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expecting less valley fog tonight...with minimal
restrictions...except for EKN which should see 2-3 hours of IFR to
LIFR fog before dawn.

VFR expected today...although chances for showers exist thanks to
a weakening upper level disturbance moving into the Ohio Valley.
These chances are low overall...and do not warrant any prevailing
or TEMPOs in the TAF...but some convective activity will be in the
area...especially for the western terminals today. Thunder should
be minimal due to increasing cloud cover in the mid to upper
levels.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 08Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 05/25/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 242350
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with
isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 pm update. No significant change.

Previous discussion...
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
deeper valleys.

Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.

Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave
trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less
focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow
contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance
range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in
the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.

Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday
night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the
slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday.

Temperatures were close to the latest guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday...
VFR mostly clear conditions tonight outside of valley fog. Patchy
MVFR valley fog...generally after 09z...mainly in deeper valleys
at sites such as KCRW and KEKN...but with a couple hours of IFR
fog possible at KEKN. Any fog will dissipate 12-13Z.

After 13z...VFR ceilings 5000-8000 feet slowly spreading eastward
across the area during the day...with scattered afternoon showers
possible in the west.

Near calm winds tonight...becoming southwest 5 to 8 kts during
Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 09Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 05/25/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KILN 242346
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
746 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region tonight. Clouds and
moisture will begin to move into the area tomorrow morning, and
chances for showers and storms will increase going through the
rest of the week, as occasional shortwave troughs move through the
mean southwesterly flow. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm, and are expected to remain above normal through the next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure is now centered off the southeast coast,
with broad surface low pressure over the high plains. With this
kind of distance between pressure systems, the gradient in the low
levels is very weak, and winds will continue to be light (under
10 knots) and somewhat variable in direction.

The overnight period will begin with mostly clear and relatively
calm conditions, with the area still well ahead of the shortwave
moving through the middle Mississippi Valley tonight. With clouds
eventually moving in toward Wednesday morning, temperatures
tonight may drop somewhat quickly after sunset, but should steady
out after around 4 AM. Min temps in the upper 50s are expected,
which is a 4-8 degree rise from last night, but not as warm as
suggested by the GFS/MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The general pattern for the next few days can be characterized by
broad ridging over the southeastern states, with general WSW flow
at the mid-levels from the desert southwest into the great lakes
states. At the surface, the pressure gradient will gradually
become tighter, but not markedly so -- surface winds will likely
remain in the 10-15 knot range (at most) on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Overall, with weak flow through the depth of the
atmosphere over the Ohio Valley, there remain no clear signals for
sustained or organized forcing. This makes the convective forecast
very reliant on weak mid-level shortwave troughs, which will
occasionally pass across the ridge, moving through the region from
WSW to ENE. PoPs have been kept in the 20-40 percent range through
the entire period, with the understanding that near-term and
first-period forecast updates will eventually need to raise these
chances on a short-term basis.

The first shortwave -- with a fair amount of timing agreement -- is
expected to move into the region on Wednesday morning. Instability
will only be beginning to increase, as this shortwave will also be
accompanied by some 925mb-850mb theta-e advection, paving the way
for an increase in boundary layer moisture through the next
several days. Initial activity is unlikely to contain thunder on
Wednesday morning, but building instability (MLCAPE ranging from
1500 J/kg in central Indiana to 500 J/kg in central Ohio) will
eventually support convective development. With the weak forcing
and slight capping, only marginal storm coverage is expected, with
little to no organization.

Instability will become more pronounced on Thursday, as surface
dewpoints increase into the mid 60s, and temperatures continue to
increase only below 700mb (leading to steeper lapse rates in the
mid-levels). However, NAM/GFS soundings indicate a likely cap at
around 875mb, which will make storm development difficult without
the help of some forcing. As has been mentioned, there is next to
zero certainty in timing of any shortwaves at this point in the
forecast, so any storm development is expected to remain isolated.
Wind flow is also expected to be at a near-minimum on Thursday,
which all adds up to too low of confidence to include any threat
for strong storms in the HWO -- when it remains a possibility that
the day could remain mostly dry for the ILN CWA. With that said,
the high amounts of instability being forecast (SBCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg) deserve a mention in this discussion, alongside
the acknowledgment that said instability may go mostly
unrealized.

Temperatures will continue a very gradual rise from Tuesday to
Wednesday to Thursday, as low-level warm advection allows for
increasing potential for warmth -- though additional moisture will
also lead to diurnal cloud development. The warmest temperatures
will continue to be forecast in the southeastern CWA, where cloud
influence is likely to be lower. It should be noted that these
temperature forecasts (lower 80s on Wednesday / lower-to-mid 80s
on Thursday) could be too high if areas of convection are able to
occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to move away from the region,
allowing for a steadier, albeit light, southerly flow to become
established. A very weak midlevel disturbance will approach the
area by 12z, allowing for an increase in midlevel clouds
overnight (likely inhibiting development of BR at any of the
terminals). This disturbance may provide enough lift for spotty
shower activity to move through western TAF sites of KCVG, KLUK,
KDAY, and KILN in the 12-18z time frame. CAMs continue to differ
on extent of coverage of activity, so kept KCMH and KLCK dry for
now.

During peak diurnal heating after 18z, there may be scattered SHRA/TS
development across the area, but confidence doesn`t warrant
inclusion in the TAFs as of right now. Southerly winds will remain
light (around 10kts or less) through the period for all sites.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/KC
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 242028
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with
isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
deeper valleys.

Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.

Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave
trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less
focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow
contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance
range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in
the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.

Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday
night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the
slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday.

Temperatures were close to the latest guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions during the period with light surface winds.
Patchy MVFR valley fog...generally after 09z...in deeper mountain
valleys at sites such as KCRW and KEKN...with a couple hours of
IFR fog possible at KEKN Wednesday morning. Any fog will dissipate
after 12-13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 09Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KCLE 241912
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
312 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will continue to support fair
weather over the region through Wednesday. Warm moist air will
stream into the area for the later half of the work week. This
will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be above normal in the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Other than a few cumulus clouds in the east most of the area is
experiencing clear skies with temperatures around 80F. The lake
breeze is weak but supporting a temperature drop in a few
eastern lakeshore areas. High pressure will keep subsidence over
the region tonight which will support mostly clear skies. With dew
points in the 50s we can expect temperatures to cool quickly after
dark.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass will see an slight increase in moisture which by early
afternoon could support some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold
Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. The southwest breeze
will not be strong enough to suppress the lake breeze so look for
an afternoon cool down in the northeast lakeshore corridor.
Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts into the area. The dynamics are weak and the
instability is modest, so could see more of scattered showers and
isolated thunder. For Thursday we are looking at the best dynamics
and instability for thunderstorms as an upper wave approaches.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period with
highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm and humid airmass will get established over the area during
the period.  Temps both Saturday and Sunday will climb well into the
80s. Unfortunately will need to continue with precip chances the
entire weekend.  The models begin in decent agreement showing an
upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes. At the
surface...high pressure will be centered off the East Coast while
low pressure will be centered in the Plains. This ridge will slide
off to the east on Sunday and that is when the best chances for rain
will be.  Monday will a little cooler and less humid so rain chances
will be more limited.  Similar weather is expected for Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will continue through tonight with high and
mid level clouds moving in tomorrow morning in advance of the next
system. mainly sw flow expected during the period with light winds
tonight. given the pressure gradient the lake breeze may not make
it to KCLE today. Will however take the flow to wnw in a couple of
hours for a few hours.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday as
well as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again over the weekend as a warm and humid airmass
settles over the region.  Expect onshore flow to develop in the
nearshore waters each afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241809
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday. A weak
disturbance will provide a chance of rain starting Wednesday
night. A slow warming trend will continue through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 500 mb ridge will keep the forecast area dry over the next 24
hours. Overall moisture in the column is fairly limited, but still
enough for some diurnal cumulus this afternoon. These will
collapse towards sunset. Mostly clear skies are forecast
overnight, although a bit of cirrus may spill over the ridge
late. Low temperatures will be seasonable, but still a few degrees
above climatology.

The upper ridge shifts east on Wednesday, and increasing southwest
flow will start the process of increasing dewpoints. More diurnal
cumulus are expected. Although low-level instability will start to
increase, a mid-level cap will keep convection at bay for much of
the area. Southeast Ohio may get just moist enough to break the
cap for a few isolated showers and storms after 18Z, and have
slight chance PoPs here. With rising 500 mb heights and 850 mb
temperatures, we expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees
warmer than today.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak shortwave trough in the midst of an unstable atmosphere is
progged to slowly pass on Thursday. Hence, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening.

Unstable conditions will continue into Friday as the broad ridge of
high pressure strengthens and terrain driven diurnal thunderstorms
occur.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected through the period via
southwest flow with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees
above average. Have used a blend of GFS, NAM, and WPC guidance for
temperatures as a broad and anomalously strong ridge pattern holds
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ensemble members continue to be in good agreement that the
aforementioned ridge enhances. Above average temperatures with
humid conditions are expected. Saturday appears to be the warmest
day of the period as the ridge axis is progged to be very near or
directly over the forecast area while mid-level heights have
reached their maxima.

The overall broad ridge of anomalously high pressure over the
Eastern US remains certain through the period and thus near WPC
values for temperatures were used. Diurnal convection can be
expected each day and so chance pops have been maintained.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue into Wednesday afternoon
underneath high pressure. Milder overnight temperatures and a dry
air mass will keep fog formation very limited to perhaps a few of
the deeper valleys or cooler water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with the advance and
passage of a disturbance late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 241757
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies
are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a
bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.

In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to move east of the region
through the TAF period. Meanwhile...a mid level disturbance to our
west will move east into the area on Wednesday. Moisture will
increase ahead of this feature in the form of mid level clouds at
first tonight. Forcing is weak with this system. However...there
could be enough lift for some spotty shower activity moving into
the western terminals around 12Z. On Wednesday...the combination
of the mid level feature and diurnal heating will result in some
scattered shower/perhaps thunderstorms...with coverage expected to
be low enough at this time to just carry a vcsh.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Hickman




000
FXUS61 KCLE 241723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift
of the Southeastern Coast of the U.S. this afternoon. This will
allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and
become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure
will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and
Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Noon temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s across the region
with only a few cumulus clouds in eastern OH. The airmass will
remain too dry for more than patchy clouds to develop which will
allow for a few more degrees of warming this afternoon. Still
looking at lake breeze this afternoon which will cool the
northeast lakeshore region a few degrees holding them into the
70s. Elsewhere most areas should see temperatures around 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the
north on Wednesday. Increased moisture levels, the approaching
front and the lake breeze boundary should all impact the
thunderstorm chances by Wednesday afternoon. However the coverage
of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level
ridge will remain fairly strong. So at this point in time it
appears that the best chances for isolated to maybe scattered
convection will be closer to the lakeshore and across NW Ohio. The
frontal boundary may never move south of Lake Erie Wednesday
night unless it gets a nudge by some thunderstorm outflow. In any
event the front will lift back to the north on Thursday with some
jet energy riding the north side of the upper level ridge. In this
pattern the better chances of thunderstorms should remain across
NW OH. Later shifts will need to monitor the situation Thursday
afternoon/evening as a piece of jet energy moves across Lake
Huron. It may be close enough to initiate thunderstorms along a
lake boundary to the east of Cleveland. The upper level ridge then
builds a bit more on Friday but with a moist atmosphere and warm
temperatures will have to keep a mention of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms.

It will be warm through the short term with highs warming a degree
or two each day. All inland locations should be well into the 80s
by Friday. It will also become more humid with each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term begins Saturday with models in decent agreement
showing an upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great
Lakes. At the surface...high pressure will be centered off the East
Coast while low pressure will be centered in the plains. The ridge
will build through Saturday before drifting east to New England for
Sunday exposing the area to more of a swly flow aloft. In general
both the ECMWF and the GFS show elevated moisture through the period
with diurnal instability leading to the expectation of scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. temps will be above
normal with highs 80 to 85 Saturday and Sunday...cooling to 75 to
80 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly clear skies will continue through tonight with high and mid
level clouds moving in tomorrow morning in advance of the next
system. mainly sw flow expected during the period with light winds
tonight. given the pressure gradient the lake breeze may not make
it to KCLE today. Will however take the flow to wnw in a couple of
hours for a few hours.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday as
well as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again towards the weekend as moisture and instability
increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 241555
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1155 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift
of the Southeastern Coast of the U.S. this afternoon. This will
allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and
become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure
will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and
Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Noon temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s across the region
with only a few cumulus clouds in eastern OH. The airmass will
remain too dry for more than patchy clouds to develop which will
allow for a few more degrees of warming this afternoon. Still
looking at lake breeze this afternoon which will cool the
northeast lakeshore region a few degrees holding them into the
70s. Elsewhere most areas should see temperatures around 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the
north on Wednesday. Increased moisture levels, the approaching
front and the lake breeze boundary should all impact the
thunderstorm chances by Wednesday afternoon. However the coverage
of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level
ridge will remain fairly strong. So at this point in time it
appears that the best chances for isolated to maybe scattered
convection will be closer to the lakeshore and across NW Ohio. The
frontal boundary may never move south of Lake Erie Wednesday
night unless it gets a nudge by some thunderstorm outflow. In any
event the front will lift back to the north on Thursday with some
jet energy riding the north side of the upper level ridge. In this
pattern the better chances of thunderstorms should remain across
NW OH. Later shifts will need to monitor the situation Thursday
afternoon/evening as a piece of jet energy moves across Lake
Huron. It may be close enough to initiate thunderstorms along a
lake boundary to the east of Cleveland. The upper level ridge then
builds a bit more on Friday but with a moist atmosphere and warm
temperatures will have to keep a mention of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms.

It will be warm through the short term with highs warming a degree
or two each day. All inland locations should be well into the 80s
by Friday. It will also become more humid with each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term begins Saturday with models in decent agreement
showing an upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great
Lakes. At the surface...high pressure will be centered off the East
Coast while low pressure will be centered in the plains. The ridge
will build through Saturday before drifting east to New England for
Sunday exposing the area to more of a swly flow aloft. In general
both the ECMWF and the GFS show elevated moisture through the period
with diurnal instability leading to the expectation of scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. temps will be above
normal with highs 80 to 85 Saturday and Sunday...cooling to 75 to
80 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure and a dry stable airmass is across the region. VFR
conditions will continue across nrn Ohio and nwrn PA through
tonight.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday as well as
early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again towards the weekend as moisture and instability
increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KILN 241511
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1111 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies
are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a
bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.

In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered southeast of the area
today, providing dry conditions and light southwesterly winds. A
few fair weather cu will be possible this afternoon, but otherwise
SKC conditions expected until a band of cirrus spreads in from the
west later this afternoon.

A mid-level disturbance may trigger some shower activity over the
lower Ohio Valley after 00Z Wednesday that could drift into our
area towards daybreak Wednesday. Not overly confident in the rain
potential at this time given the limited moisture and forcing,
but do expect an increase in low/mid level clouds.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Kurz




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241333
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday,
before shower chances return Wednesday night. A warming trend is
expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Very minor tweaks were made to sky cover and temperatures for the
930 AM update. No major changes to the forecast.

Previous...
Drier air will continue to work into the area today. With plenty
of sunshine, good atmospheric mixing is expected which will allow
temperatures to warm to above normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through
most of Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move into Western Ohio
late Wednesday and begin the process of shifting the ridge axis to
the east. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge,
most of Wednesday should remain dry. A late day shower or storm
cannot be ruled out over Ohio as the shortwave will increase
large scale ascent over a destabilized lower atmosphere.

Very warm Wednesday with temperatures 10+ degrees above normal.

Shower chance will increase across the entire area Wednesday
night, as aforementioned shortwave continues it slow trek
eastward.

It will take most of Thursday for the trough axis to make it
through, necessitating the inclusion of pops through much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensembles are in good agreement that a broad and rather strong
ridge will develop over the Eastern US through the much of the long
term.

This will provide the area with very warm temperatures and
increasing levels of humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR at all terminals for the period,
with exception for peri-dawn fog. Restrictions were confined to
ports nearest water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with the advance and
passage of a disturbance late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 241327
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
No surface fronts eager to approach. Ridging aloft begins today with
its axis shifting to our east Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft
dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM update...forecast on track. No changes necessary.

Previous Discussion...
Upper level low to the east will finally lift out of the mid
Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes...and already have seen
the exit of the cloud cover from the counterclockwise flow aloft.
Expecting brief ridging in its place over the Ohio Valley before
the flow turns west southwesterly aloft...but that should keep the
cloud cover to a minimum today and tonight...with an increase in
temperatures.

Not much surface moisture advection to be seen at this point...with
dewpoints still peaking out in the low to mid 50s over the lowlands.
This will help to allow one last night of lowland low temperatures
in the 50s tonight...which will be gradually increasing into the
middle and end of the week as we transition to a more late
spring/early summer type pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout.  With its
axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday
into Saturday.

Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers
and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances.  Was even slower
introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the
initial weakening disturbance aloft.  Was not too keen on thunder
chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a
slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty.

Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have
pops no higher than 40 percent at this time.

By Friday...you can forget about looking west.  Main interest will
be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to
indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into
Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z
run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there.

Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90
degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river
valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green
vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on
Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum
temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same
flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature
from rising above that observed on Friday.

So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.

The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
coastal Carolinas.

Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR after the valley fog/mist lifts this morning under generally
westerly winds...less than 10kts. No ceilings expected through the
TAF period...with only FEW 4-5kft clouds expected during heating
hours today.

Dry air remains in place...and warmer temperatures expected today
means less valley fog tonight. Still will have to watch EKN for
IFR or worse visibilities late. Otherwise...brief MVFR to VFR
conditions prevail after 03Z Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 06Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




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