Home > Products > State Listing > Ohio Data
Latest:
 AFDILN |  AFDCLE |  AFDPBZ |  AFDRLX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 201426
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 201426
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 201417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 201417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 201347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AFTER
LOOKING AT AREA SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE THIS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW
WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
EXPECTED...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NW AFTER 8 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 201136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE PATCH OF CIRRUS IS SHIFTING EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WHILE A
LARGER AREA FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHES NW OHIO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO THIN AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD
BRIEFLY BE OPAQUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING
80 DEGREES IN A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW
OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
EXPECTED...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NW AFTER 8 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 201136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE PATCH OF CIRRUS IS SHIFTING EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WHILE A
LARGER AREA FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHES NW OHIO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO THIN AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD
BRIEFLY BE OPAQUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING
80 DEGREES IN A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW
OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
EXPECTED...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NW AFTER 8 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 201136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE PATCH OF CIRRUS IS SHIFTING EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WHILE A
LARGER AREA FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHES NW OHIO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO THIN AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD
BRIEFLY BE OPAQUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING
80 DEGREES IN A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW
OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
EXPECTED...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NW AFTER 8 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 201136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE PATCH OF CIRRUS IS SHIFTING EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WHILE A
LARGER AREA FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHES NW OHIO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO THIN AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD
BRIEFLY BE OPAQUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING
80 DEGREES IN A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW
OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
EXPECTED...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NW AFTER 8 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 201111
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
711 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE PATCH OF CIRRUS IS SHIFTING EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WHILE A
LARGER AREA FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHES NW OHIO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO THIN AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD
BRIEFLY BE OPAQUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING
80 DEGREES IN A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW
OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT NOT
FORECASTING FOG AT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE OF THE
WIND...HOWEVER...PATCHY 5SM BR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 9 AM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NW AFTER 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 201047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE
SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 201047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE
SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 201031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 201031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KCLE 200819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON
THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE THIS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW
WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT NOT
FORECASTING FOG AT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE OF THE
WIND...HOWEVER...PATCHY 5SM BR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 9 AM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NW AFTER 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 200819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON
THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE THIS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW
WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT NOT
FORECASTING FOG AT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE OF THE
WIND...HOWEVER...PATCHY 5SM BR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 9 AM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NW AFTER 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KILN 200817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE
SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH A FEW
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY (UP TO 20 KNOTS)
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE DAY...GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. MVFR FOG AT KLUK
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES BY 05Z-08Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 200749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 200749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 200749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 200749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 200604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER BUT STILL DRY WEATHER SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 200604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER BUT STILL DRY WEATHER SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KCLE 200601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT NOT
FORECASTING FOG AT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE OF THE
WIND...HOWEVER...PATCHY 5SM BR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 9 AM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NW AFTER 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 200601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT NOT
FORECASTING FOG AT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE OF THE
WIND...HOWEVER...PATCHY 5SM BR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 9 AM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NW AFTER 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KILN 200534
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH A FEW
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY (UP TO 20 KNOTS)
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE DAY...GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. MVFR FOG AT KLUK
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES BY 05Z-08Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 200237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 200237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 200237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 200237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCLE 200115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 200115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 200115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 200115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT
STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS
THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME
THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW.

MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS
CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E
OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW.

CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW.
STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER...
HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE
FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT
STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS
THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME
THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW.

MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS
CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E
OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW.

CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW.
STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER...
HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE
FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT
STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS
THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME
THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW.

MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS
CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E
OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW.

CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW.
STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER...
HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE
FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT
STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS
THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME
THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW.

MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS
CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E
OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW.

CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW.
STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER...
HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE
FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KILN 192343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KILN 192343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KILN 192343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KILN 192343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KCLE 192329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 192329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT
ON SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG
SHEAR AS THE JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF
CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG
THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE
A POTL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS.
THIS POTL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING
TO THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT
ON SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG
SHEAR AS THE JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF
CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG
THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE
A POTL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS.
THIS POTL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING
TO THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCLE 192206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 192206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN










000
FXUS61 KRLX 192030 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500
FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT
TO VFR BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z
LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BE LESS THAN
FORECAST IF NO SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WIND AT
SURFACE CONTINUES TO STIR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV














000
FXUS61 KRLX 192030 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500
FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT
TO VFR BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z
LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BE LESS THAN
FORECAST IF NO SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WIND AT
SURFACE CONTINUES TO STIR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV













000
FXUS61 KILN 192004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KRLX 192000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 192000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 192000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 192000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KCLE 191908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 191849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 191805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KILN 191737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KILN 191737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 191730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 191730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 191730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE.

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 191621
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS STARTING OUT AT MANY SITES WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
BKN AT ERI WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT THE OTHER
SITES UNTIL CIRRUS INCREASES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
CLE TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORT SO JUST CARRYING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191621
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS STARTING OUT AT MANY SITES WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
BKN AT ERI WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT THE OTHER
SITES UNTIL CIRRUS INCREASES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
CLE TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORT SO JUST CARRYING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 191521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM/JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM/JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM/JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM/JMV










000
FXUS61 KILN 191340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 191340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 191309
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
909 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS STARTING OUT AT MANY SITES WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
BKN AT ERI WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT THE OTHER
SITES UNTIL CIRRUS INCREASES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
CLE TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORT SO JUST CARRYING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191309
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
909 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS STARTING OUT AT MANY SITES WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
BKN AT ERI WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT THE OTHER
SITES UNTIL CIRRUS INCREASES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
CLE TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORT SO JUST CARRYING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KCLE 191145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS STARTING OUT AT MANY SITES WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
BKN AT ERI WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT THE OTHER
SITES UNTIL CIRRUS INCREASES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
CLE TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORT SO JUST CARRYING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS STARTING OUT AT MANY SITES WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
BKN AT ERI WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT THE OTHER
SITES UNTIL CIRRUS INCREASES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
CLE TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORT SO JUST CARRYING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KILN 191049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KILN 191049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191041
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD
IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 191034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO VEER TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES...WITH MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FORMING THROUGH MIXING
FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  IT COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.  WITH THE FLOW VEERING A BIT
MORE SRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN JUST E OF BKW.

DENSE VALLEY FOG ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING /CRW AND EKN IN
PARTICULAR/...SHOULD THIN OUT BY 13Z.  A NE PUFF PREVENTED MUCH FOG
FROM FORMING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE PATCHY STRATOCU PREVENTED
DENSE FOG AT CKB AND DELAYED ITS ONSET AT EKN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z TODAY.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CU AOA 4 KFT.

VALLEY FOG / MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A S TO SE FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT SE
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE LIGHT NE
FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TODAY.  FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CIGS IN SRN WV MOUNTAINS WITH
THE DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW THIS MORNING MAY VARY.
VSBYS IN FOG / MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 191034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 191034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO VEER TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES...WITH MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FORMING THROUGH MIXING
FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  IT COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.  WITH THE FLOW VEERING A BIT
MORE SRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN JUST E OF BKW.

DENSE VALLEY FOG ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING /CRW AND EKN IN
PARTICULAR/...SHOULD THIN OUT BY 13Z.  A NE PUFF PREVENTED MUCH FOG
FROM FORMING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE PATCHY STRATOCU PREVENTED
DENSE FOG AT CKB AND DELAYED ITS ONSET AT EKN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z TODAY.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CU AOA 4 KFT.

VALLEY FOG / MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A S TO SE FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT SE
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE LIGHT NE
FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TODAY.  FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CIGS IN SRN WV MOUNTAINS WITH
THE DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW THIS MORNING MAY VARY.
VSBYS IN FOG / MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KILN 190843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KILN 190843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190822
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS TIME WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING BEGINNING A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 190703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 190703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 190603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.   FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 190603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.   FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 190603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.   FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 190603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.   FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190505 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
TEMPERATURES USING LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD
IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190505 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
TEMPERATURES USING LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD
IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 190451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1251 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR 930
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KILN 190158
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR 930
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CU OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO KERI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL FOR NOW KEEP IT OUT OF KCLE BUT MAY
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG RESULTING MOSTLY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR 930
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CU OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO KERI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL FOR NOW KEEP IT OUT OF KCLE BUT MAY
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG RESULTING MOSTLY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR 930
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CU OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO KERI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL FOR NOW KEEP IT OUT OF KCLE BUT MAY
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG RESULTING MOSTLY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR 930
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CU OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO KERI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL FOR NOW KEEP IT OUT OF KCLE BUT MAY
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG RESULTING MOSTLY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME WITH A SUNDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES UNDR COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...NO FROST PROBLEMS ARE INDICATED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND MDLS INDICATING CLD DVLPMNT WITH AN INVERTED
TROF ALNG THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TIMING FOR NXT CDFNT PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL
SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY NARROW...THE NAM BEING THE ONLY
SLOW OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
INCLUDE LIKELY NMBRS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA...WHERE THE BTR PCPN SPPRTG DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED.

MODELS GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC SHOULD QUICKLY END THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WL DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. COOLER AIR WL INFILTRATE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND RMN INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME WITH A SUNDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES UNDR COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...NO FROST PROBLEMS ARE INDICATED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND MDLS INDICATING CLD DVLPMNT WITH AN INVERTED
TROF ALNG THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TIMING FOR NXT CDFNT PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL
SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY NARROW...THE NAM BEING THE ONLY
SLOW OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
INCLUDE LIKELY NMBRS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA...WHERE THE BTR PCPN SPPRTG DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED.

MODELS GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC SHOULD QUICKLY END THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WL DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. COOLER AIR WL INFILTRATE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND RMN INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 182335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CU OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO KERI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL FOR NOW KEEP IT OUT OF KCLE BUT MAY
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG RESULTING MOSTLY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CU OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO KERI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL FOR NOW KEEP IT OUT OF KCLE BUT MAY
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG RESULTING MOSTLY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 182304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB LEVEL STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL
QUICKLY VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY TIME
FRAME.  TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS INTO BKW TRICKY...BUT HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  WILL TRY TO KEEP CEILINGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 THSD FT
AND MVFR.  SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.

WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY. BUT FURTHER WEST...FAVORED FOG OVER CLOUDS FOR
ELKINS VCNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER
THE HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER
VALLEYS...FORECASTING IFR IN FOG REACHING CRW 06Z TO 08Z.

IN THE DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST...SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
OVER THE OHIO RIVER MAY FORM FOR 09Z TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 182304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB LEVEL STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL
QUICKLY VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY TIME
FRAME.  TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS INTO BKW TRICKY...BUT HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  WILL TRY TO KEEP CEILINGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 THSD FT
AND MVFR.  SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.

WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY. BUT FURTHER WEST...FAVORED FOG OVER CLOUDS FOR
ELKINS VCNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER
THE HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER
VALLEYS...FORECASTING IFR IN FOG REACHING CRW 06Z TO 08Z.

IN THE DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST...SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
OVER THE OHIO RIVER MAY FORM FOR 09Z TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME WITH A SUNDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES UNDR COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...NO FROST PROBLEMS ARE INDICATED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND MDLS INDICATING CLD DVLPMNT WITH AN INVERTED
TROF ALNG THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TIMING FOR NXT CDFNT PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL
SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY NARROW...THE NAM BEING THE ONLY
SLOW OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
INCLUDE LIKELY NMBRS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA...WHERE THE BTR PCPN SPPRTG DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED.

MODELS GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC SHOULD QUICKLY END THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WL DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. COOLER AIR WL INFILTRATE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND RMN INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
ESWELY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCLE 182222
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 12
UTC AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH
OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END
VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL
BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KILN 182000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 182000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 12
UTC AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH
OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END
VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL
BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 12
UTC AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH
OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END
VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL
BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 181928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED
LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING
THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT
EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AREA.

MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS
AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED
LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING
THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT
EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AREA.

MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS
AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181843
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DIURNAL CU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY. MAY BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS TOWARD GARRETT COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DRY START...WET MIDDLE...AND DRY END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
LOOK TO BE IN STORE WITH ONLY ONE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
LOOKS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD IS FAIRLY NARROW...WITH THE NAM REALLY THE ONLY SLOW
OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS AT LEAST AS HIGH AS LIKELY
SEEMED HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TO UP
POPS A BIT THERE. THIS WILL BE THE PORTION OF THE AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPRESSIVE DPVA VALUES AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO MANAGE TO GENERATED A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. SUPPORT LOOKS FAR INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WAS ADDED
TO THE FORECAST. DRY AIR LOOKS TO QUICKLY RUN IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ENDING THE THREAT OF RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO SKYROCKET TOWARD 80F ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION LOOK TO
OVERLAY THE FORECAST SIMULTANEOUSLY. THIS ALLOWS THE ROUGHLY +15C
AT 850 MB TO MIX OUT RELATIVELY FULLY TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUING
WARM ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AT
NIGHT AS WELL. COOLER AIR FLOODS INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS. ANOTHER VFR
DAY FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 181827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVES OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED
LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING
THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT
EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AREA.

MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS
AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVES OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED
LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING
THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT
EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AREA.

MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS
AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVES OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED
LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING
THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT
EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AREA.

MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS
AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVES OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED
LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING
THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT
EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AREA.

MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS
AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST. AWAITING THE DISSOLUTION
OF THE FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND
VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND 14Z
AT MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST. AWAITING THE DISSOLUTION
OF THE FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND
VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND 14Z
AT MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST. AWAITING THE DISSOLUTION
OF THE FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND
VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND 14Z
AT MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST. AWAITING THE DISSOLUTION
OF THE FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND
VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND 14Z
AT MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART
VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR
THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND
THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN
OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KCLE 181741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST GUESS AT CURRENT POSITIONS OF DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE
OVER LERI. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE DISSIPATING. BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING
BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT THIS MOISTURE SOME.
ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP...AIDED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER A LITTLE MORE LATER IN THE DAY.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE LAKE
SHORE COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FURTHER
INTO TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD HELP PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
TO REINFORCE CURRENT AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO I DONT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION SUPPRESSING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DRY AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT AS WELL AND WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. ANOTHER
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD SO NOT
EXPECTING DRASTIC DROPS IN TEMPERATURES. AS HIGH PUSHES
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY...WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY SHIFTING TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER DIRECTION
AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850MB COLD POOL WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START
THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE EMCWF AND GFS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 2C OVER NW PA THAT MORNING SO EXPECT A GOOD
DEAL OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. LOWERED
HIGHS ON MONDAY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES MORE
IF THIS AIR MASS VERIFIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO WESTERLY...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW BELT ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND A LOT ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE PRETTY COOL. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLEARING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME FROST COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH
OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END
VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL
BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THEY VEER TO EASTERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181736
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DIURNAL CU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY. MAY BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS TOWARD GARRETT COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TOWARD AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE LATE FRIDAY AND THEN ZONAL FLOW ON
SATURDAY. WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO SURGE
NORTHWARD. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
OTHER THEN THIS OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS. ANOTHER VFR
DAY FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181736
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DIURNAL CU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY. MAY BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS TOWARD GARRETT COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TOWARD AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE LATE FRIDAY AND THEN ZONAL FLOW ON
SATURDAY. WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO SURGE
NORTHWARD. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
OTHER THEN THIS OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS. ANOTHER VFR
DAY FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KILN 181710
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






000
FXUS61 KILN 181710
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities