Home > Products > State Listing > Ohio Data
Latest:
 AFDILN |  AFDCLE |  AFDPBZ |  AFDRLX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 020136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
936 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
ARE LOCATED OUT OVER LAKE ERIE AND ARE MOVING WITH AN EAST-
NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THEREFORE THEY MAY CLIP ERIE COUNTY PA BEFORE
HEADING OFF TO NY. ALL OTHERS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/TS OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FAR TO THE WEST...NEAR CHICAGO. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MUCH LATER TONIGHT AS A WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
JET MAX. A STEADIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO WORK
ITS WAY IN FROM THE FINDLAY AREA NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST IT CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE 6
AM.

AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SHORTWAVE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THIS AREA OF RAIN TRACKS. HAVE TOLEDO IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY...AND THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA IN CATEGORICAL
POPS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE NIGHT. STEADIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAF FORECASTS GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE STRATIFIED BY THAT TIME. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR BY THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN ENDS AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN ON A LIGHT WEST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 830PM UPDATE...CUT POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH COVERAGE HAVING SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS ALSO ON THE
WANE...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MORE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM
TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF
THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF
THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT
THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED
FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS
VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER
PARTICULARLY JUMPY. FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND
A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE
THROUGH ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES
SEEMS UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z WITH END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH KFKL AND KDUJ HAVING IFR STRATUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR TUESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR THUNDER AT TIMES IN TAFS AS
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER ISSUANCE. A WEAK WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 012347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...CULMINATING ON
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN NORTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG A
LINE RUNNING FROM RICHMOND THROUGH GREENVILLE TOWARDS WAPAKONETA.

AS THIS TIME...3 HOUR FFG VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 3 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY AND TRAIN OVER THE REGION
STARTING IN THE EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
AT THIS TIME...MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT THE AXIS OF THE
SW-NE LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY TRAIN IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE. THE
AREA HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOAK UP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY RUNOFF.

WPC PRODUCTS SEEM TO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY VERSUS WHERE THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXCEED
FF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE SW-NE AXIS MORE INTO THE CWA AND ALONG THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT SAW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MAY
BE HIT WITH ANOTHER SOAKER...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES SHOULD
NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE...AT LEAST OVER WARREN AND GREENE
COUNTIES. PRECIP DURING THE DAY OVER THE CWA WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
AND EXPAND SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUTED DUE TO THE RAINFALL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S...SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AND USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE DRIEST AIR AND SUBSEQUENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA EAST OF COLUMBUS
GETTING THE BEST COOLING BOTH TUES AND WED NIGHTS. NORTH OF DAYTON
ON WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THE RETURNING WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP THROUGH THE WRN OHIO
VALLEY. AS FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW.

THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT KILN VERY
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A MID DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES
IN THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE USED A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN BEFORE 12Z. APPEARS THAT
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THUS BETTER CHANCE OF PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT KDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF/MOVING
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z WITH END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH KFKL AND KDUJ HAVING IFR STRATUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR TUESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR THUNDER AT TIMES IN TAFS AS
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER ISSUANCE. A WEAK WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z WITH END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH KFKL AND KDUJ HAVING IFR STRATUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR TUESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR THUNDER AT TIMES IN TAFS AS
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER ISSUANCE. A WEAK WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCLE 012341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED OR ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FAR TO THE WEST...JUST WEST OF
CHICAGO. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SUPPORT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET MAX. A STEADIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE FINDLAY AREA
NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE FINE
TUNED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SHORTWAVE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE
HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS FOR TUESDAY...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE NIGHT. STEADIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAF FORECASTS GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE STRATIFIED BY THAT TIME. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR BY THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN ENDS AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN ON A LIGHT WEST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 012325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO CREATE
A MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN WV. CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS IS LOW HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG IN OH/KY
AND WESTERN WV...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. FOG WOULD OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON A STRATUS DECK
NOT FORMING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW LATE TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF STRATUS OR FOG MAY VARY
LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 012325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO CREATE
A MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN WV. CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS IS LOW HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG IN OH/KY
AND WESTERN WV...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. FOG WOULD OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON A STRATUS DECK
NOT FORMING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW LATE TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF STRATUS OR FOG MAY VARY
LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 012302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED OR ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FAR TO THE WEST...JUST WEST OF
CHICAGO. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SUPPORT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET MAX. A STEADIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE FINDLAY AREA
NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE FINE
TUNED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SHORTWAVE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE
HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS FOR TUESDAY...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCES.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 012302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED OR ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FAR TO THE WEST...JUST WEST OF
CHICAGO. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SUPPORT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET MAX. A STEADIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE FINDLAY AREA
NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE FINE
TUNED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SHORTWAVE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE
HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS FOR TUESDAY...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCES.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES NEAR/AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES NEAR/AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES NEAR/AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES NEAR/AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 012011
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...CULMINATING ON
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN NORTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG A
LINE RUNNING FROM RICHMOND THROUGH GREENVILLE TOWARDS WAPAKONETA.

AS THIS TIME...3 HOUR FFG VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 3 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY AND TRAIN OVER THE REGION
STARTING IN THE EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
AT THIS TIME...MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT THE AXIS OF THE
SW-NE LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY TRAIN IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE. THE
AREA HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOAK UP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY RUNOFF.

WPC PRODUCTS SEEM TO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY VERSUS WHERE THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXCEED
FFGUIDANCE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE SW-NE AXIS MORE INTO THE CWA AND ALONG THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT SAW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MAY
BE HIT WITH ANOTHER SOAKER...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES SHOULD
NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE...AT LEAST OVER WARREN AND GREENE
COUNTIES. PRECIP DURING THE DAY OVER THE CWA WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
AND EXPAND SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUTED DUE TO THE RAINFALL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S...SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AND USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE DRIEST AIR AND SUBSEQUENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA EAST OF COLUMBUS
GETTING THE BEST COOLING BOTH TUES AND WED NIGHTS. NORTH OF DAYTON
ON WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THE RETURNING WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP THROUGH THE WRN OHIO
VALLEY. AS FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW.

THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. TIMED IN TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY DURING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 012011
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...CULMINATING ON
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN NORTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG A
LINE RUNNING FROM RICHMOND THROUGH GREENVILLE TOWARDS WAPAKONETA.

AS THIS TIME...3 HOUR FFG VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 3 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY AND TRAIN OVER THE REGION
STARTING IN THE EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
AT THIS TIME...MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT THE AXIS OF THE
SW-NE LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY TRAIN IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE. THE
AREA HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOAK UP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY RUNOFF.

WPC PRODUCTS SEEM TO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY VERSUS WHERE THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXCEED
FFGUIDANCE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE SW-NE AXIS MORE INTO THE CWA AND ALONG THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT SAW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MAY
BE HIT WITH ANOTHER SOAKER...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES SHOULD
NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE...AT LEAST OVER WARREN AND GREENE
COUNTIES. PRECIP DURING THE DAY OVER THE CWA WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
AND EXPAND SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUTED DUE TO THE RAINFALL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S...SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AND USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE DRIEST AIR AND SUBSEQUENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA EAST OF COLUMBUS
GETTING THE BEST COOLING BOTH TUES AND WED NIGHTS. NORTH OF DAYTON
ON WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THE RETURNING WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP THROUGH THE WRN OHIO
VALLEY. AS FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW.

THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. TIMED IN TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY DURING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VSBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
MAY NEED AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VSBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
MAY NEED AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KCLE 011923
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE LINE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I ANTICIPATE THAT THE SOUTHERN
END WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN. HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION. I
ANTICIPATE THIS LINE WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ACTUALLY...SPC PULLED BACK THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERABLY AND CONFINED IT TO
MICHIGAN.

MODELS SUGGEST A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF COOL DOWN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD TAKE
WITH IT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS WILL IN TURN DRAG THE LEFTOVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND FOR SURE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCES.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011923
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE LINE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I ANTICIPATE THAT THE SOUTHERN
END WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN. HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION. I
ANTICIPATE THIS LINE WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ACTUALLY...SPC PULLED BACK THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERABLY AND CONFINED IT TO
MICHIGAN.

MODELS SUGGEST A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF COOL DOWN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD TAKE
WITH IT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS WILL IN TURN DRAG THE LEFTOVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND FOR SURE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCES.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011913
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011913
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMINIG IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMINIG IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMINIG IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMINIG IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 011815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME
AS WELL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. TIMED IN TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY DURING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR






000
FXUS61 KILN 011815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME
AS WELL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. TIMED IN TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY DURING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KRLX 011809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING CLOUDS AND SOME
PASSING SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VISBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. MAY NEED
AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 011809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING CLOUDS AND SOME
PASSING SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VISBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. MAY NEED
AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTEXES
THAT ARE WORKING TO HARNESS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE FAIRLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SHOWERS FIRST IN A BATCH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN A SECOND BATCH IN
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE OOZING INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMPLE INSTABILITY...THESE SHOWERS OVER OHIO
WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...QPF VALUES WERE
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THE AXIS DOWN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRANSLATE...THAT BEING SOUTHERN ZANESVILLE TO
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY
TO MAKE A STRATUS BREAK UP JUST IMMEDIATELY TURN INTO A SEMI-
CONTINUOUS CUMULUS DECK SHOULD IT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE GOING
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTEXES
THAT ARE WORKING TO HARNESS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE FAIRLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SHOWERS FIRST IN A BATCH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN A SECOND BATCH IN
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE OOZING INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMPLE INSTABILITY...THESE SHOWERS OVER OHIO
WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...QPF VALUES WERE
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THE AXIS DOWN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRANSLATE...THAT BEING SOUTHERN ZANESVILLE TO
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY
TO MAKE A STRATUS BREAK UP JUST IMMEDIATELY TURN INTO A SEMI-
CONTINUOUS CUMULUS DECK SHOULD IT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE GOING
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KCLE 011357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CAPE DEVELOPING
AND NO CIN SO THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 011357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CAPE DEVELOPING
AND NO CIN SO THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP
TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE
STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 011112
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP
TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE
STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRATUS DECK.
STILL...VFR REMAINED AT KERI NEAR THE LAKE...AS WELL AS KFDY AND
KTOL HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO KFDY/KTOL AND KCLE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW IS HELPING KERI AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR TO THEIR SOUTH. KCLE IS ON THE EDGE.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING/BREAKING WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NOT BREAKING UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 011055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER. THE STRATUS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK UP
TODAY. EXPECT THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS FOR THE
STORM MODE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






000
FXUS61 KILN 011054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY MIXY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN...WE HAVE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE
POPS TO WORK THEIR WAY UP NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA LATE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A LOW END SEVERE RISK TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z BEFORE LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH MVFR BY 18Z.
WEAK ISENT LIFT THROUGH ESPECIALLY THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN
LOCATIONS...COVERAGE WONT WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH. WITH
CLOUDS DIMINISHING A BIT BY MID AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SUN AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA IN
ESPECIALLY THE TDAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
TAF SITES DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE.

WITH INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...KEPT WINDS TO GUST TO CLOSE TO 25 KTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ADVANCING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAFTER 04/06Z...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AFTER 06-09Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 011054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY MIXY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN...WE HAVE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE
POPS TO WORK THEIR WAY UP NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA LATE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A LOW END SEVERE RISK TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z BEFORE LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH MVFR BY 18Z.
WEAK ISENT LIFT THROUGH ESPECIALLY THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN
LOCATIONS...COVERAGE WONT WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH. WITH
CLOUDS DIMINISHING A BIT BY MID AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SUN AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA IN
ESPECIALLY THE TDAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
TAF SITES DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE.

WITH INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...KEPT WINDS TO GUST TO CLOSE TO 25 KTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ADVANCING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAFTER 04/06Z...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AFTER 06-09Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
548 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST WITH EXITING UPPER
TROUGH SO LITTLE UPDATE THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE
MADE TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SOME LOSS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY DEPENDS ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS BREAK
TO ALLOW HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KCLE 010817
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OHIO. LEFT A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO
BE DENSE WITH 4-7 KNOTS OF WIND. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TODAY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST BY A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY...RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 80S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
WINDS BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE PRETTY GOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS OVERHEAD.   HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO WHERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT
INSTEAD OF GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA WITH STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 010754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY MIXY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN...WE HAVE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE
POPS TO WORK THEIR WAY UP NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA LATE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A LOW END SEVERE RISK TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING
INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN
EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG
HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION.

IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA
LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR
CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD
06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 010754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY MIXY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN...WE HAVE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE
POPS TO WORK THEIR WAY UP NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA LATE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A LOW END SEVERE RISK TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING
INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN
EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG
HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION.

IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA
LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR
CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD
06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KRLX 010736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INSERT INTO TAFS AFTER 10Z.

THRU 16Z MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED. THESE WILL LAST THRU MONDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS 09Z TO
13Z. ADD TO THAT SOME MVFR FOG...BRIEFLY IFR PROTECTED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 10Z TO 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE... AFFECTING PRIMARILY BKW.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FEET BY 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INSERT INTO TAFS AFTER 10Z.

THRU 16Z MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED. THESE WILL LAST THRU MONDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS 09Z TO
13Z. ADD TO THAT SOME MVFR FOG...BRIEFLY IFR PROTECTED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 10Z TO 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE... AFFECTING PRIMARILY BKW.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FEET BY 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INSERT INTO TAFS AFTER 10Z.

THRU 16Z MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED. THESE WILL LAST THRU MONDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS 09Z TO
13Z. ADD TO THAT SOME MVFR FOG...BRIEFLY IFR PROTECTED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 10Z TO 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE... AFFECTING PRIMARILY BKW.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FEET BY 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KILN 010558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE TRI-STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING
INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN
EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG
HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION.

IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA
LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR
CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD
06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR






000
FXUS61 KCLE 010525
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010525
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 010239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE TRI-STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT WITH A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 06Z. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AN IFR
CEILING AT ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI SITES. CEILINGS WILL START TO
LIFT AFTER 12Z WITH FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL SCATTER FOR THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT BY THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 010239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE TRI-STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT WITH A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 06Z. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AN IFR
CEILING AT ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI SITES. CEILINGS WILL START TO
LIFT AFTER 12Z WITH FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL SCATTER FOR THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT BY THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 010215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 010215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
EAST...BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.

MADE THE HOURLY SKY COVER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND RURAL
SPOTS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY MID MORNING MONDAY IN
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY PICNICS. RERAN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AND CURRENT
READINGS BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...MID 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRLX 312349
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER HANDLE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ/RPY










000
FXUS61 KILN 312342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING AS ARE LOWER CLOUDS. HOWEVER
EXPECT THE LATTER TO BE TEMPORARY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE
DAY...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT IN THE TRI-STATE. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT WITH A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 06Z. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AN IFR
CEILING AT ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI SITES. CEILINGS WILL START TO
LIFT AFTER 12Z WITH FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL SCATTER FOR THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT BY THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 312342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING AS ARE LOWER CLOUDS. HOWEVER
EXPECT THE LATTER TO BE TEMPORARY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE
DAY...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT IN THE TRI-STATE. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT WITH A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 06Z. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AN IFR
CEILING AT ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI SITES. CEILINGS WILL START TO
LIFT AFTER 12Z WITH FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL SCATTER FOR THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT BY THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ERLY EVE UPDT TO ADJ POPS. PREVIOUS DISC...SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT
INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE
AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH
MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH
LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 312312
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 312312
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND IFR CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 312014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WITH THE HUMID AIR AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 68 AND 70 FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORESO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME
IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT ALL BUT KCVG AND KLUK. VSBYS WILL
START OUT VFR ACROSS THE AREA.  VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR TO
IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 312014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WITH THE HUMID AIR AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 68 AND 70 FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORESO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME
IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT ALL BUT KCVG AND KLUK. VSBYS WILL
START OUT VFR ACROSS THE AREA.  VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR TO
IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311911
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A TAD WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311911
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A TAD WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311911
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A TAD WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311911
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A TAD WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KILN 311812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE
TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO FOR THIS
BAND AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME
IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT ALL BUT KCVG AND KLUK. VSBYS WILL
START OUT VFR ACROSS THE AREA.  VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR TO
IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 311746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 311740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 311516
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING WITH LATEST DOPPLER
RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. REMOVED THUNDER AT LEAST THROUGH
18Z AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF LIGHTNING UNDER AREAS OF STRATIFORM
RAIN. EMBEDDED SHOWERS COULD BECOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD REACH 0.5 INCHES
PER HOURS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 18Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.


INCLUDED TSRA FOR CRW...CKB...AND BKW...AND VCTS/CB FOR THE REST
OF SITES AFTER 18Z.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
VARY. EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS COULD VARY
FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311516
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING WITH LATEST DOPPLER
RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. REMOVED THUNDER AT LEAST THROUGH
18Z AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF LIGHTNING UNDER AREAS OF STRATIFORM
RAIN. EMBEDDED SHOWERS COULD BECOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD REACH 0.5 INCHES
PER HOURS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 18Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.


INCLUDED TSRA FOR CRW...CKB...AND BKW...AND VCTS/CB FOR THE REST
OF SITES AFTER 18Z.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
VARY. EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS COULD VARY
FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KILN 311459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE
TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO FOR THIS
BAND AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 311459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE
TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO FOR THIS
BAND AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 311459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE
TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO FOR THIS
BAND AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 311459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE
TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO FOR THIS
BAND AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE AREA. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT ANY THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WESTERN AREAS WILL
SEE THICK CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KILN 311041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE SUGGESTING THE 925-850 MB JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN FILL IN ALONG THE NOSE OF IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. PCPN SHOULD
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS LATER
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY
MARGINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THINK PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A MINIMUM DESPITE THE HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH
THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 311041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE SUGGESTING THE 925-850 MB JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN FILL IN ALONG THE NOSE OF IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. PCPN SHOULD
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS LATER
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY
MARGINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THINK PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A MINIMUM DESPITE THE HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH
THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KRLX 311040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOW SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPECTED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK
BACK IN OHIO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL BE WATCHING UNI
AND THEN THE RIVER TERMINALS OF PKB AND HTS TO DO THE SAME AND
CARRY THIS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON. CARRYING VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW AS THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THUNDER CHANCES ARE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS
HOWEVER.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOW SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPECTED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK
BACK IN OHIO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL BE WATCHING UNI
AND THEN THE RIVER TERMINALS OF PKB AND HTS TO DO THE SAME AND
CARRY THIS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON. CARRYING VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW AS THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THUNDER CHANCES ARE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS
HOWEVER.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOW SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPECTED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK
BACK IN OHIO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL BE WATCHING UNI
AND THEN THE RIVER TERMINALS OF PKB AND HTS TO DO THE SAME AND
CARRY THIS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON. CARRYING VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW AS THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THUNDER CHANCES ARE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS
HOWEVER.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOW SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPECTED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK
BACK IN OHIO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL BE WATCHING UNI
AND THEN THE RIVER TERMINALS OF PKB AND HTS TO DO THE SAME AND
CARRY THIS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON. CARRYING VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW AS THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THUNDER CHANCES ARE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS
HOWEVER.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KCLE 311028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 311028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCLE 310745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







000
FXUS61 KRLX 310729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
329 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX TAFS TODAY GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TRIED TO USE AS MUCH PREVAILING SHRA AS POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TRIED
TO PEG THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH PEAK HEATING TODAY UTILIZING
THE PROB30 WORDING IN THE TAFS. THIS TIMING HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTACHED TO IT.

AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT AN
MVFR STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COULD LIMIT
THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THIS LAYER DISSOLVES...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT
PKB AND HTS.

LATER TONIGHT...AS THE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN BATCH
OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INCREASE AS
WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 08/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
329 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX TAFS TODAY GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TRIED TO USE AS MUCH PREVAILING SHRA AS POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TRIED
TO PEG THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH PEAK HEATING TODAY UTILIZING
THE PROB30 WORDING IN THE TAFS. THIS TIMING HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTACHED TO IT.

AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT AN
MVFR STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COULD LIMIT
THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THIS LAYER DISSOLVES...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT
PKB AND HTS.

LATER TONIGHT...AS THE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN BATCH
OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INCREASE AS
WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 08/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KILN 310717
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
317 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE SUGGESTING THE 925-850 MB JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN FILL IN ALONG THE NOSE OF IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. PCPN SHOULD
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS LATER
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY
MARGINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THINK PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A MINIMUM DESPITE THE HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH
THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF I-71
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND THIS IS WHAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER
12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME VERY MINOR
DAYTIME HEATING VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
THIS MORNING AND DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. A LACK OF A TRIGGER
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU









000
FXUS61 KILN 310717
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
317 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE SUGGESTING THE 925-850 MB JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN FILL IN ALONG THE NOSE OF IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. PCPN SHOULD
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS LATER
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY
MARGINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THINK PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A MINIMUM DESPITE THE HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH
THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF I-71
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND THIS IS WHAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER
12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME VERY MINOR
DAYTIME HEATING VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
THIS MORNING AND DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. A LACK OF A TRIGGER
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KILN 310630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
CLOSER TO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION COULD BE WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT QUITE REACH. APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EXCESSIVE. VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER. BUT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING A QUICK INCH TO A FEW LOCATIONS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF I-71
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND THIS IS WHAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER
12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME VERY MINOR
DAYTIME HEATING VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
THIS MORNING AND DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. A LACK OF A TRIGGER
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 310630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
CLOSER TO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION COULD BE WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT QUITE REACH. APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EXCESSIVE. VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER. BUT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING A QUICK INCH TO A FEW LOCATIONS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF I-71
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND THIS IS WHAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER
12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME VERY MINOR
DAYTIME HEATING VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
THIS MORNING AND DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. A LACK OF A TRIGGER
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

VFR CONDITIONS TO START AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KRLX 310551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING IN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. HRRR
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HOLD ON THINGS FOR NOW. SOME LIGHTNING
EVIDENT...BUT ALL IN ALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AS THIS
MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX TAFS TODAY GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TRIED TO USE AS MUCH PREVAILING SHRA AS POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TRIED
TO PEG THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH PEAK HEATING TODAY UTILIZING
THE PROB30 WORDING IN THE TAFS. THIS TIMING HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTACHED TO IT.

AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT AN
MVFR STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COULD LIMIT
THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THIS LAYER DISSOLVES...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT
PKB AND HTS.

LATER TONIGHT...AS THE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN BATCH
OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INCREASE AS
WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 310551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING IN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. HRRR
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HOLD ON THINGS FOR NOW. SOME LIGHTNING
EVIDENT...BUT ALL IN ALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AS THIS
MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX TAFS TODAY GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TRIED TO USE AS MUCH PREVAILING SHRA AS POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TRIED
TO PEG THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH PEAK HEATING TODAY UTILIZING
THE PROB30 WORDING IN THE TAFS. THIS TIMING HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTACHED TO IT.

AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT AN
MVFR STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COULD LIMIT
THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THIS LAYER DISSOLVES...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT
PKB AND HTS.

LATER TONIGHT...AS THE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN BATCH
OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INCREASE AS
WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCLE 310433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KCLE 310433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MORE ACTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN TO JUST SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF CIN
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310254
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE SHOWERS CAN EXPAND. THE BEST GUESS AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND EAST. I DOUBT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN GET TO TOLEDO BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. RAIDED
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
IN GENERAL FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON







000
FXUS61 KCLE 310254
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE SHOWERS CAN EXPAND. THE BEST GUESS AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND EAST. I DOUBT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN GET TO TOLEDO BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. RAIDED
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
IN GENERAL FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON






000
FXUS61 KILN 310248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1048 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
CLOSER TO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION COULD BE WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT QUITE REACH. APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EXCESSIVE. VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER. BUT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING A QUICK INCH TO A FEW LOCATIONS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 310248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1048 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
CLOSER TO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION COULD BE WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT QUITE REACH. APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EXCESSIVE. VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER. BUT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING A QUICK INCH TO A FEW LOCATIONS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 310248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1048 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
CLOSER TO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION COULD BE WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT QUITE REACH. APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EXCESSIVE. VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER. BUT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING A QUICK INCH TO A FEW LOCATIONS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 310248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1048 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
CLOSER TO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION COULD BE WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT QUITE REACH. APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EXCESSIVE. VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER. BUT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING A QUICK INCH TO A FEW LOCATIONS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
FOR NOW.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KDAY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THAT SITE AS WELL...LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ONLY EXPECTING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY END UP IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND OR AFTER 12Z. APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IF IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities