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000
FXUS61 KILN 292043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE
EVENING...PROVIDING AN OVERNIGHT LULL. KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PCPN INTO THE EARLY EVENING SE OF I-71. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THE AREA NW OF I-71 SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTN/EVENING.

BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN CHANCES LATE...AS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CDFNT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE S/W WILL PUSH A CDFNT TOWARDS
THE FA. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MORNING COULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A INCREASING CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
POPS SHOULD BE IN THE W CNTL OHIO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CDFNT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA. CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS A
LITTLE AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO PCPN COULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE MAIN H5 S/W THRU ON SUNDAY.
THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A LITTLE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ON SUNDAY AS IT PRODUCES A QPF BULLS-EYE. PCPN
SHOULD COME TO END AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S NW OF I-71...WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 292043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE
EVENING...PROVIDING AN OVERNIGHT LULL. KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PCPN INTO THE EARLY EVENING SE OF I-71. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THE AREA NW OF I-71 SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTN/EVENING.

BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN CHANCES LATE...AS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CDFNT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE S/W WILL PUSH A CDFNT TOWARDS
THE FA. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MORNING COULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A INCREASING CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
POPS SHOULD BE IN THE W CNTL OHIO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CDFNT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA. CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS A
LITTLE AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO PCPN COULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE MAIN H5 S/W THRU ON SUNDAY.
THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A LITTLE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ON SUNDAY AS IT PRODUCES A QPF BULLS-EYE. PCPN
SHOULD COME TO END AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S NW OF I-71...WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 291958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRECIPITAL WATER NEAR
1.5 INCHES...DCAPE IS MODEST TOO. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD TRYING TO TIME THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY
AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A WAVE ON THE STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A LINE WITH NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z-22Z AND
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO REFLECT THE
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AS A WAVE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. FLOW OFF OF COOL
LAKE ERIE IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN COOLED AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESS THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
RATHER ZONAL BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK WHEN THE SOUTH FLOW RETURNS AND WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE A LOW POP ON FRIDAY AND IT COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE A BIT COOLER THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ALERT ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY.

THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WAVE ON THE FRONT WHICH
COULD ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST WIND ON SUNDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE FICKLE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
LAKE ERIE SO MARINERS THAT HAVE BOATING PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CHECK THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 291958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRECIPITAL WATER NEAR
1.5 INCHES...DCAPE IS MODEST TOO. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD TRYING TO TIME THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY
AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A WAVE ON THE STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A LINE WITH NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z-22Z AND
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO REFLECT THE
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AS A WAVE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. FLOW OFF OF COOL
LAKE ERIE IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN COOLED AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESS THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
RATHER ZONAL BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK WHEN THE SOUTH FLOW RETURNS AND WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE A LOW POP ON FRIDAY AND IT COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE A BIT COOLER THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ALERT ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY.

THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WAVE ON THE FRONT WHICH
COULD ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST WIND ON SUNDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE FICKLE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
LAKE ERIE SO MARINERS THAT HAVE BOATING PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CHECK THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 291958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRECIPITAL WATER NEAR
1.5 INCHES...DCAPE IS MODEST TOO. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD TRYING TO TIME THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY
AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A WAVE ON THE STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A LINE WITH NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z-22Z AND
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO REFLECT THE
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AS A WAVE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. FLOW OFF OF COOL
LAKE ERIE IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN COOLED AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESS THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
RATHER ZONAL BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK WHEN THE SOUTH FLOW RETURNS AND WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE A LOW POP ON FRIDAY AND IT COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE A BIT COOLER THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ALERT ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY.

THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WAVE ON THE FRONT WHICH
COULD ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST WIND ON SUNDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE FICKLE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
LAKE ERIE SO MARINERS THAT HAVE BOATING PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CHECK THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 291913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE GLOBALS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN
INDICATING...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. AS SUCH...THE
FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME ISO
ACTIVITY AT BEST. THE WAVE IS POISED TO TREK ACROSS E OH BY MIDDAY
ON SUN...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA. SUN
STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED...PARTICULARLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. THERE MAY BE
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING -SHRA.
IT IS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THRU MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE H85 FRONT. FOR
TEMPS...THINK AREAS SE OF THE OH RIVER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SPIKE
UP IN TEMPS AS THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREATING A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT WITH SE OH IN THE LOW 70S. MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
OFF A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK
IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE GLOBALS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN
INDICATING...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. AS SUCH...THE
FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME ISO
ACTIVITY AT BEST. THE WAVE IS POISED TO TREK ACROSS E OH BY MIDDAY
ON SUN...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA. SUN
STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED...PARTICULARLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. THERE MAY BE
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING -SHRA.
IT IS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THRU MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE H85 FRONT. FOR
TEMPS...THINK AREAS SE OF THE OH RIVER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SPIKE
UP IN TEMPS AS THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREATING A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT WITH SE OH IN THE LOW 70S. MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
OFF A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK
IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE GLOBALS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN
INDICATING...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. AS SUCH...THE
FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME ISO
ACTIVITY AT BEST. THE WAVE IS POISED TO TREK ACROSS E OH BY MIDDAY
ON SUN...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA. SUN
STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED...PARTICULARLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. THERE MAY BE
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING -SHRA.
IT IS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THRU MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE H85 FRONT. FOR
TEMPS...THINK AREAS SE OF THE OH RIVER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SPIKE
UP IN TEMPS AS THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREATING A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT WITH SE OH IN THE LOW 70S. MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
OFF A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK
IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE GLOBALS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN
INDICATING...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. AS SUCH...THE
FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME ISO
ACTIVITY AT BEST. THE WAVE IS POISED TO TREK ACROSS E OH BY MIDDAY
ON SUN...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA. SUN
STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED...PARTICULARLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. THERE MAY BE
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING -SHRA.
IT IS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THRU MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE H85 FRONT. FOR
TEMPS...THINK AREAS SE OF THE OH RIVER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SPIKE
UP IN TEMPS AS THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREATING A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT WITH SE OH IN THE LOW 70S. MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
OFF A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK
IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT...INHIBITING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT...INHIBITING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KCLE 291751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE THINNING OVER THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG WITH CIN ALL BUT ELIMINATED OVER LAND AREAS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POPS AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 291751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE THINNING OVER THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG WITH CIN ALL BUT ELIMINATED OVER LAND AREAS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POPS AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 291751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE THINNING OVER THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG WITH CIN ALL BUT ELIMINATED OVER LAND AREAS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POPS AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 291751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE THINNING OVER THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG WITH CIN ALL BUT ELIMINATED OVER LAND AREAS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POPS AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW NO REAL KICKER TO
PROVIDE FORCING OR BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND SOME CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND CONVECTION ANYWHERE. THEREFORE...CODED CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ALONG THEIR PATH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE
500 MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW NO REAL KICKER TO
PROVIDE FORCING OR BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND SOME CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND CONVECTION ANYWHERE. THEREFORE...CODED CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ALONG THEIR PATH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE
500 MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE
AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z
TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND
EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT
ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 291654
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1254 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOUDS ARE THINING OVER THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG WITH CIN ALL BUT ELIMINATED OVER LAND AREAS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POPS AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES
MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING AT SPECIFIC
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1203 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW NO REAL KICKER TO
PROVIDE FORCING OR BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND SOME CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND CONVECTION ANYWHERE. THEREFORE...CODED CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ALONG THEIR PATH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE
500 MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 12Z. HAVE MID DECK AT
8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z. POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1203 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW NO REAL KICKER TO
PROVIDE FORCING OR BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND SOME CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND CONVECTION ANYWHERE. THEREFORE...CODED CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ALONG THEIR PATH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE
500 MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 12Z. HAVE MID DECK AT
8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z. POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1203 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW NO REAL KICKER TO
PROVIDE FORCING OR BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND SOME CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND CONVECTION ANYWHERE. THEREFORE...CODED CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ALONG THEIR PATH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE
500 MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 12Z. HAVE MID DECK AT
8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z. POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH
LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH
LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 291341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWEST INTO OHIO WITH THESE SHOWERS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IS BEING OVERTOPPED BY UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE/CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE DOWNSCALED NAM
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED THE PRESENT ACTIVITY RATHER
WELL. RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWS A FEW RETURNS OVER OVER EAST
CENTRAL OHIO WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CANTON-AKRON AREA. WE
WILL INCREASE POP TODAY OVER THE SW COUNTIES ESPECIALLY AND OVER
MOST OF THE REMAINING OHIO COUNTIES. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER
TOO. MADE CORRESPONDING CLOUD COVER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES
MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING AT SPECIFIC
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH
LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 291229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
829 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TAKING ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS WITH IT. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER ANY ONE LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS RELATIVE TO ANOTHER. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD MEAN THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST BRING LOCAL DOWNPOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BRING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST TIMING INDICATED IN TAF
FCST. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST AIR. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 291229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
829 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TAKING ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS WITH IT. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER ANY ONE LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS RELATIVE TO ANOTHER. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD MEAN THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST BRING LOCAL DOWNPOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BRING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST TIMING INDICATED IN TAF
FCST. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST AIR. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE EVEN PLACED AN ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES
MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING AT SPECIFIC
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 291102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE EVEN PLACED AN ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES
MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING AT SPECIFIC
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FOR SKY/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CAN SEE PLUME OF
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WV LOOP. THINK WESTERN COUNTIES AND/OR SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL SEE
FIRST SHRA IN OUR CWA...WITH OTHER AREAS FILLING IN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING
SHORTLY. WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO
FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING
CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY
WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID
ON RAIN POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FOR SKY/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CAN SEE PLUME OF
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WV LOOP. THINK WESTERN COUNTIES AND/OR SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL SEE
FIRST SHRA IN OUR CWA...WITH OTHER AREAS FILLING IN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING
SHORTLY. WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO
FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING
CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY
WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID
ON RAIN POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 291034
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. AREA OF SHRA WITH
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG AROUND LUK SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST TIMING INDICATED IN
TAF FCST. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST AIR. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 291034
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. AREA OF SHRA WITH
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG AROUND LUK SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST TIMING INDICATED IN
TAF FCST. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST AIR. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT






000
FXUS61 KCLE 291032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE EVEN PLACED AN ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE
UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 291032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE EVEN PLACED AN ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE
UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 291031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLYA ROUND 12Z.
HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z.
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLYA ROUND 12Z.
HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z.
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLYA ROUND 12Z.
HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z.
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLYA ROUND 12Z.
HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z.
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLYA ROUND 12Z.
HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z.
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290827
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE
UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290827
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE
UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290827
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE
UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290827
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE
UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING SHORTLY.
WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRACKING INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK
INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A
TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM
BECOMING VERY DEEP.  THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN
POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING SHORTLY.
WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRACKING INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK
INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A
TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM
BECOMING VERY DEEP.  THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN
POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290618
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM NW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT HIGH...LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290618
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM NW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT HIGH...LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290618
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM NW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT HIGH...LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290618
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM NW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT HIGH...LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z.
POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO
11Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD
VARY FROM FORECAST.  VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

.AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KILN 290545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT






000
FXUS61 KILN 290545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290502
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS TURNING SE THEN
SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW
THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE
PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290502
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS TURNING SE THEN
SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW
THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE
PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290502
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS TURNING SE THEN
SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW
THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE
PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290502
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS TURNING SE THEN
SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW
THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE
PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 290214
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. WESTERN TERMINALS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015PM UPDATE...
WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS
TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
955 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290004 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
804 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290004 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
804 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. WESTERN TERMINALS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. WESTERN TERMINALS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 282316
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION DECREASING WITH HEATING. WEAK VORTEX OVER LEXINGTON
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND TUG FORK VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLIGHT
CHANCES ONLY...AND MOST WILL REMAIN DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 282316
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION DECREASING WITH HEATING. WEAK VORTEX OVER LEXINGTON
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND TUG FORK VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLIGHT
CHANCES ONLY...AND MOST WILL REMAIN DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z.
AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282239
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 282032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 282032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 282032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 282032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 282000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281945
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIANT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281945
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIANT UPPER
RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS
UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281919
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281919
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FEW CU WELL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING MORE
CUMULUS TO FORM/ADVECT NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT FOCUS
AND TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER COUNTY. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER COUNTY. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER COUNTY. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER COUNTY. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING
THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH
EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS.
ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF
HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST
OH AND NORTHEAST KY.

FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM
MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT
HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK
OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS NORTHEAST KY.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER
AROUND 22Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK
OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS NORTHEAST KY.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER
AROUND 22Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST.  PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES
FOR NOW.

LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KILN 281745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOMEWHAT MORE ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG IT. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS
WEAK...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281635
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK
OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS NORTHEAST KY.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER
AROUND 22Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY ON AND THEN
MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE TUG FORK AREA ALREADY.  ANY CONVECTION
AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL
CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281635
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK
OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS NORTHEAST KY.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER
AROUND 22Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY ON AND THEN
MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE TUG FORK AREA ALREADY.  ANY CONVECTION
AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL
CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281612
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1212 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK
OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS CENTRAL KY.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER
AROUND 22Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY ON AND THEN
MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE TUG FORK AREA ALREADY.  ANY CONVECTION
AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL
CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281612
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1212 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK
OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS CENTRAL KY.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER
AROUND 22Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY ON AND THEN
MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE TUG FORK AREA ALREADY.  ANY CONVECTION
AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL
CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP BUT
ON BALANCE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SO NO CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST PORTS UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PA
BORDER SHOULD BRING MORE CU AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST PORTS UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PA
BORDER SHOULD BRING MORE CU AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 281427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA EAST NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD. HIGH
RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD RESULT
IN A ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER SO MAY
NOT EVEN GET THUNDER IF ANY ECHOES DO DEVELOP. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS AFFECTING TERMINALS EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS
OCCURS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING AT KLUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 281427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA EAST NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD. HIGH
RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD RESULT
IN A ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER SO MAY
NOT EVEN GET THUNDER IF ANY ECHOES DO DEVELOP. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS AFFECTING TERMINALS EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS
OCCURS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING AT KLUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THE
SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT. OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK INTO THE NORTH BUT AS FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON
LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. ONLY A STRAY SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK. TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN
IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN
IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281051
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
651 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY ON AND THEN
MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE TUG FORK AREA ALREADY.  ANY CONVECTION
AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL
CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281051
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
651 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE
SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY ON AND THEN
MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE TUG FORK AREA ALREADY.  ANY CONVECTION
AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL
CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281039
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN
IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPSACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU
12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE. DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER
THE INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAK SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281039
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THE SUN
IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPSACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU
12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE. DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER
THE INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAK SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 281038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.

BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH
AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM
MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY
SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM
ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE
HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG
SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT AND WILL
REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS LED TO SOME SPORADIC
STRATUS...MIST...AND FOG WHICH IS SHOWING TO BE VERY LOCALIZED IN
SPOTS. AT THIS TIME...KCVG SEEMS TO BE THE TERMINAL WITH THE WORSE
CONDITIONS. FOG/STRATUS IS DROPPING VALUES TO NEAR AIRPORT
MINIMUMS. BELIEVE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX TO
A SCT-BKN CUMULUS DECK BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A POP UP SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCEPOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE COOLER
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU
12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE. DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER
THE INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAK SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCEPOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE COOLER
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU
12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE. DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER
THE INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAK SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCEPOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE COOLER
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU
12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE. DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER
THE INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAK SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KILN 280815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.

BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH
AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM
MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY
SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM
ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE
HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG
SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 280815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.

BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH
AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM
MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY
SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM
ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE
HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG
SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID
ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS
TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280701
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280701
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND.  A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS
THERE.

THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE
N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT.

SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR
DRAINAGE HIGH WATER.

MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A
TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY
AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE
TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST
AREA...OVERNIGHT.

1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST
AREA...OVERNIGHT.

1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST
AREA...OVERNIGHT.

1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST
AREA...OVERNIGHT.

1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST
AREA...OVERNIGHT.

1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST
AREA...OVERNIGHT.

1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY.  MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO
FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY
CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT
STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT.

.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE.
DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE.
DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE.
DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE.
DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE.
DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z THEN WILL DISSIPATE.
DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280225
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL
OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280225
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL
OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280014
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
814 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KILN 272357
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN



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