[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191758
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
158 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN HALF OF
OHIO. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOME EVIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO EVACUATE THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DRY
ADVECTION...TONIGHT SHOULD GO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT YET AGAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOKS RANGE BOUND BY THE DEWPOINTS. AS
SUCH...EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES JUMPING ROUGHLY 2-3C OVER THE
VALUES TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD JUMP 4-6F FROM TODAY. AS SUCH...UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM REASONABLE MOST EVERYWHERE WITH CONTINUED
RATHER DRY DEWPOINTS. ALL IN ALL...THE KIND OF WEATHER EVERYONE
LIKES TO SEE IN THE SUMMER...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A POLAR BEAR AT A
ZOO. THEY MIGHT BE A TAD WARM. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE ECMWF HAS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HENCE...THE WELL ABOVE MAX TEMPERATURES
THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING. THEREFORE...HAVE USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTH OF KHLG AND NEAR
KMGW...HOWEVER IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SEEM LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191750
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE...STRATUS ERODING RAPIDLY SO THAT MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LATER AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. STUBBORN STRATUS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
FINALLY ERODES BY 19Z...SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY DENSE
RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z AFFECTING THE MAJOR TERMINALS. AFTER
14Z...VFR SCT-BKN CU. JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN HIGH TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
[top]
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191745
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT CU DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND THIS CU WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS REMAIN ON
TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU
INLAND. TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S FAR NE LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE AREA OF CUMULUS WAS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AND WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND DARK. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CUMULUS BECAUSE THE MOISTURE
IS SCARCE AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING FOG
ESPECIALLY AT THE TAF SITES. SOME CIRRUS COULD BE AROUND ON
THURSDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CUMULUS. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN THE WEAK FLOW WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN
THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK
[top]
000
FXUS61 KILN 191725
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. IN WEAK CAA PATTERN...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO RADIATE NICELY AT NIGHT AND EXHIBIT A GRADUAL
WARMING ON HIGHS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY AFTER TODAY. THE LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WAS REMOVED AT DAYBREAK
BUT THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING BACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY IF ONLY WEAKLY.
THIS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE DEWPOINTS COULD RISE TO THE MID 60S
AS HIGHS START TOPPING 90...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE THE RESULT. DID NOT FEEL THAT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THEM...BUT
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. I DID NOT HOWEVER FEEL THAT THAT CHANCE EXISTED AT
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
COULD APPROACH 90 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
BE ON THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR
EVERYONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES
COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY BR AT KLUK LATE TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191629
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS HAS FULLY MIXED OUT INTO CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES AROUND MORGANTOWN. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF A FEW RIDGE TOP CUMULUS. SKY GRIDS WERE UPPED
A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY OWING TO FAIRLY SLOW DRY AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...HOWEVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE DAY.
FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE ECMWF HAS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HENCE...THE WELL ABOVE MAX TEMPERATURES
THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING. THEREFORE...HAVE USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 07Z OR SO WITH MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS PUSHING SOUTH UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF IFR FOG AT KMGW WHERE BEST RAIN FELL TUESDAY...WITH MVFR AT KHLG
AND KZZV. SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP GENERAL VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191612
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1212 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT CU DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND THIS CU WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS REMAIN ON
TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU
INLAND. TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S FAR NE LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO AND WILL MOVE TO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW CLOUDS WILL COME OFF LAKE
ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY EVENING AND CLEAR TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY THEN NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191610
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1146 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE...STRATUS ERODING RAPIDLY SO THAT MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LATER AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
STRATUS ERODING QUICKLY SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WILL ADD LOCALLY DENSE RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOST MAJOR TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191437
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.
NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KILN 191318
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
918 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. IN WEAK CAA PATTERN...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO RADIATE NICELY AT NIGHT AND EXHIBIT A GRADUAL
WARMING ON HIGHS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY AFTER TODAY. THE LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WAS REMOVED AT DAYBREAK
BUT THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING BACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY IF ONLY WEAKLY.
THIS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE DEWPOINTS COULD RISE TO THE MID 60S
AS HIGHS START TOPPING 90...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE THE RESULT. DID NOT FEEL THAT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THEM...BUT
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. I DID NOT HOWEVER FEEL THAT THAT CHANCE EXISTED AT
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
COULD APPROACH 90 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
BE ON THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR
EVERYONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NR LAKE HURON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER LAKE
ERIE TODAY. WEAK CAA ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH LAPSE RATES OVER
AND SOME SCT VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFT SUNSET TONIGHT. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KLUK TONIGHT...SO WENT WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191312
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT CHECK OF TEMPS INDICATE THAT FORECAST PROCEEDING ON TRACK SO
LITTLE TO CHANGE FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A
PERIOD OF FEW/SCT CU INLAND. TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT
STILL SEASONABLE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO AND WILL MOVE TO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW CLOUDS WILL COME OFF LAKE
ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY EVENING AND CLEAR TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY THEN NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191241
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREAS FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN
AND ALL POINTS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD MIX
OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE LEFT AROUND FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON A RIDGE TOP
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...IF NOT MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE ECMWF HAS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HENCE...THE WELL ABOVE MAX TEMPERATURES
THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING. THEREFORE...HAVE USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 07Z OR SO WITH MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS PUSHING SOUTH UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF IFR FOG AT KMGW WHERE BEST RAIN FELL TUESDAY...WITH MVFR AT KHLG
AND KZZV. SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP GENERAL VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191120
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A
PERIOD OF FEW/SCT CU INLAND. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S. QUICK CHECK OF EARLY MORNING TEMPS...AND
FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO AND WILL MOVE TO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW CLOUDS WILL COME OFF LAKE
ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY EVENING AND CLEAR TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY THEN NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191049
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.
NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191032
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A
PERIOD OF FEW/SCT CU INLAND. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S. QUICK CHECK OF EARLY MORNING TEMPS...AND
FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL
COME OFF LAKE ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND BY MIDDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN BY EVENING
.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
000
FXUS61 KILN 191003
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE
UPPER 70S UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO RADIATE NICELY AT NIGHT AND EXHIBIT A GRADUAL
WARMING ON HIGHS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY AFTER TODAY. THE LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WAS REMOVED AT DAYBREAK
BUT THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING BACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY IF ONLY WEAKLY.
THIS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE DEWPOINTS COULD RISE TO THE MID 60S
AS HIGHS START TOPPING 90...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE THE RESULT. DID NOT FEEL THAT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THEM...BUT
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. I DID NOT HOWEVER FEEL THAT THAT CHANCE EXISTED AT
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
COULD APPROACH 90 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NR LAKE HURON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER LAKE
ERIE TODAY. WEAK CAA ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH LAPSE RATES OVER
AND SOME SCT VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFT SUNSET TONIGHT. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KLUK TONIGHT...SO WENT WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190923
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
523 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH. CONTINUED TO KEEP PATCHY FOG TO
TUCKER...PRESTON...AND GARRETT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
DRY AIR AS OBSERVED FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS REASSURES HIGH
PRESSURE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH A SUNNY SKY WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE ECMWF HAS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HENCE...THE WELL ABOVE MAX TEMPERATURES
THE GFFX MOS GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING. THEREFORE...HAVE USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 07Z OR SO WITH MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS PUSHING SOUTH UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF IFR FOG AT KMGW WHERE BEST RAIN FELL TUESDAY...WITH MVFR AT KHLG
AND KZZV. SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP GENERAL VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 190803
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE
UPPER 70S UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO RADIATE NICELY AT NIGHT AND EXHIBIT A GRADUAL
WARMING ON HIGHS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY AFTER TODAY. THE LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WAS REMOVED AT DAYBREAK
BUT THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING BACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY IF ONLY WEAKLY.
THIS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE DEWPOINTS COULD RISE TO THE MID 60S
AS HIGHS START TOPPING 90...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE THE RESULT. DID NOT FEEL THAT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THEM...BUT
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. I DID NOT HOWEVER FEEL THAT THAT CHANCE EXISTED AT
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
COULD APPROACH 90 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF LAKE HURON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER
LAKE ERIE TODAY. CLOUDS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SRN TAFS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD. EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
KLUK THIS MORNING AS RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. KEPT THE FOG MVFR
FOR NOW.
WEAK CAA ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH LAPSE RATES OVER AND SOME SCT
VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED AFT SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO HTS. AT THIS
POINT...ALL SHRA HAS REMAINED JUST OFF TO THE NE OF CRW AND ONLY
EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT EKN AND CKB. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE
DENSITY SHOULD A SHOWER MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL ONCE
THE SHOWER AND CLOUDS SCATTER. BY NEAR DAWN...EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE AT LEAST IFR IN REDUCED VIS...IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED
MORNING DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. BY
MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR VIS MAY
REDEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD.
NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE MORE THAN FCST WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 190747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A
PERIOD OF FEW/SCT CU INLAND. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL
COME OFF LAKE ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND BY MIDDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN BY EVENING
.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190646
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH EXITING
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO COUNTIES SOUTH OF PA AS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR AS OBSERVED FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS REASSURES HIGH
PRESSURE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH A SUNNY SKY WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE ECMWF HAS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HENCE...THE WELL ABOVE MAX TEMPERATURES
THE GFFX MOS GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING. THEREFORE...HAVE USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 07Z OR SO WITH MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS PUSHING SOUTH UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF IFR FOG AT KMGW WHERE BEST RAIN FELL TUESDAY...WITH MVFR AT KHLG
AND KZZV. SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP GENERAL VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190558
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO CKB AT 05Z. THESE
ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AT THIS TIME.
1000 PM UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
HAVE DISSIPATED...THANKS TO THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSPIRING WITH THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WENT N TO NW EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS AND CANCELLED FFA EARLY.
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO HTS. AT THIS
POINT...ALL SHRA HAS REMAINED JUST OFF TO THE NE OF CRW AND ONLY
EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT EKN AND CKB. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE
DENSITY SHOULD A SHOWER MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL ONCE
THE SHOWER AND CLOUDS SCATTER. BY NEAR DAWN...EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE AT LEAST IFR IN REDUCED VIS...IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED
MORNING DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. BY
MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR VIS MAY
REDEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD.
NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE MORE THAN FCST WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KILN 190557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BASED ON RECENT OBS...COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR AND HEADING SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND HAVE
BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF LAKE HURON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER
LAKE ERIE TODAY. CLOUDS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SRN TAFS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD. EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
KLUK THIS MORNING AS RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. KEPT THE FOG MVFR
FOR NOW.
WEAK CAA ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH LAPSE RATES OVER AND SOME SCT
VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED AFT SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KCLE 190547
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES
THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL
COME OFF LAKE ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND BY MIDDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN BY EVENING
.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190408
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1208 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS IN SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A CDFNT CONTS TO SINK SWD ACRS SRN
PA INTO SERN OH. SOME ISOLD SHWRS LINGERING INVOF THE FNT BUT MOST
OF THE PCPN HAS ENDED. INSTBY HAS DMNSH PER RECENT MESO AND EVE
RAOB PLOTS. VRY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OBSERVED ON RAOBS AND
STLT...SO SHOULD BE MCLR WITH COOL TEMPS AFT FROPA. IN THE WV/MD
PTN OF THE RGN...ADDED PTCHY FOG AS FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
OVRNGT. COULD SEE SOME FOG DVLP UP UNTIL FROPA ESP WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL EARLIER TDA. HIGH PRES BLDS IN WED WITH MCLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN MCLR SKIES THRU THE PD. AFT A
COOL START WED NGT/THU MRNG...EXP TEMPS TO GRDLY RETURN TO NR OR
ABV SEASONAL AVGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. WHILE NO MENTION OF SHRA
OR TSRA WAS MENTIONED AT ANY SITES...A FEW CELLS COULD STILL DEVELOP
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL IMPACT ANY ONE
TAF SITE.
SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/WED MORNING AT
KHLG...KZZV...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190208
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
HAVE DISSIPATED...THANKS TO THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSPIRING WITH THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WENT N TO NW EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS AND CANCELLED FFA EARLY.
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PORTION OF A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...SO THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT HAS BECOME TO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONDENSE INTO FOG
THAT WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY MVFR STRATUS TO FORM AS WELL AND IT MAY LOWER TO IFR
STRATUS BEFORE THE FOG BECOMES DENSE.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED MORNING
AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. A VFR AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A TAF SITE TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE
MORE THAN FCST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD
ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KILN 190158
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BASED ON RECENT OBS...COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR AND HEADING SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND HAVE
BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SAGGING SOUTH OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK
THROUGH 01Z. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 5 TO
10 KT SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KLUK. AT KLUK...LIGHTER FLOW IN THE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER 10
KT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO
000
FXUS61 KCLE 190133 AAB
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES
THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE A FEW LOW END VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MORNING
BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE BETWEEN TAF SITES.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190125
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CDFNT CONTS TO SINK SWD ACRS SRN PA INTO SERN OH. SOME ISOLD
SHWRS LINGERING INVOF THE FNT BUT MOST OF THE PCPN HAS ENDED.
INSTBY HAS DMNSH PER RECENT MESO AND EVE RAOB PLOTS. VRY DRY AIR
TO THE NORTH OBSERVED ON RAOBS AND STLT...SO SHOULD BE MCLR WITH
COOL TEMPS AFT FROPA. IN THE WV/MD PTN OF THE RGN...ADDED PTCHY
FOG AS FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL OVRNGT. COULD SEE SOME FOG DVLP UP
UNTIL FROPA ESP WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL EARLIER TDA. HIGH PRES BLDS
IN WED WITH MCLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN MCLR SKIES THRU THE PD. AFT A
COOL START WED NGT/THU MRNG...EXP TEMPS TO GRDLY RETURN TO NR OR
ABV SEASONAL AVGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. WHILE NO MENTION OF SHRA
OR TSRA WAS MENTIONED AT ANY SITES...A FEW CELLS COULD STILL DEVELOP
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL IMPACT ANY ONE
TAF SITE.
SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/WED MORNING AT
KHLG...KZZV...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/34
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190018
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
818 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CDFNT CONTS TO SINK SWD ACRS SRN PA INTO SRN OH. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE BEEN DMNSHG IN INTENSITY AND COVG AS INSTBY AND PWATS DCRS
ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO DATA. SCT SHWRS AND TSTSM WL CONT INTO
ERLY THIS EVE BEFORE ACTIVITY DMNSHS AND MOVES OUT OVRNGT. COULD
BE SOME PTCHY FOG AS WELL ESP S OF PIT BUT WL NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
HIGH PRES BLDS IN WED WITH CLRG SKIES AND BLO SEASONAL AVG TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE RIDGES ON FRIDAY IS THE EXCEPTION...AS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.
FOR TEMPS...FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET
BLEND ON THURSDAY...CONSIDERING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. WHILE NO MENTION OF SHRA
OR TSRA WAS MENTIONED AT ANY SITES...A FEW CELLS COULD STILL DEVELOP
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL IMPACT ANY ONE
TAF SITE.
SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/WED MORNING AT
KHLG...KZZV...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190010
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PORTION OF A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...SO THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT HAS BECOME TO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONDENSE INTO FOG
THAT WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY MVFR STRATUS TO FORM AS WELL AND IT MAY LOWER TO IFR
STRATUS BEFORE THE FOG BECOMES DENSE.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED MORNING
AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. A VFR AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A TAF SITE TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE
MORE THAN FCST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD
ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KCLE 182345
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE A FEW LOW END VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MORNING
BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE BETWEEN TAF SITES.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SECOND...AN UPR LVL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING OVERLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...BUT BEST ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR SW CWFA (TRI-STATE) WILL HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE FROM THE UPR
LVL WX DISTURBANCE. ALL IN ALL...HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ATTM
AND WILL SEE IF COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WITH
MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL APPEARS SLATED FOR OUR SWRN
CWFA GIVEN THE REASON MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SAGGING SOUTH OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK
THROUGH 01Z. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 5 TO
10 KT SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KLUK. AT KLUK...LIGHTER FLOW IN THE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER 10
KT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182241
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CDFNT CONTS TO SINK SWD ACRS SRN PA INTO SRN OH. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE BEEN DMNSHG IN INTENSITY AND COVG AS INSTBY AND PWATS DCRS
ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO DATA. SCT SHWRS AND TSTSM WL CONT INTO
ERLY THIS EVE BEFORE ACTIVITY DMNSHS AND MOVES OUT OVRNGT. COULD
BE SOME PTCHY FOG AS WELL ESP S OF PIT BUT WL NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
HIGH PRES BLDS IN WED WITH CLRG SKIES AND BLO SEASONAL AVG TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE RIDGES ON FRIDAY IS THE EXCEPTION...AS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.
FOR TEMPS...FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET
BLEND ON THURSDAY...CONSIDERING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. IN
THUNDERSTORMS...CIGS/VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING NEAR
KZZV...KHLWG...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. SKIES
SEEMS LIKELY TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 182210
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KRLX 182027
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E OF AREA BY 20Z...TAKING BULK OF RAINS WITH IT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THIS DOES SO WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN MAINLY OVER SE OH/NE KY/W WV. THINK BKW WILL
HOLD ONTO MUCH OF THE IFR STRATUS...PERHAPS TRYING TO IMPROVE INTO
MVFR.
WILL TURN ATTENTION TO APPROACHING SFC FRONT FROM NW AND ANOTHER
S/W TROF. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME BKN SHRA WITH THIS AS IT
WORKS THRU LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SOME VCSH IN W TAF SITES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ATTM.
FG FCST TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP POST
FRONTAL AS FLOW TURNS TO NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV/SW VA. WILL PLAY
A COMBO FOR NOW WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR MOST OF TAF SITES GIVEN
RAINS TDY. DID TAKE MTN SITES DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS GET INTO KPKB LATE TO ALLOW LIFR FG TO FORM.
FG/STRATUS LIFTS BY 15Z...PERHAPS BRIEFLY INTO MVFR CU...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO 4 TO 5 THSD BASES IN AFTN. A FEW MTN SHRA POSSIBLE IN
AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
DISTANCE.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MUCH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182017
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TROD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY ZANESVILLE TO
WHEELING TO PITTSBURGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES AND THE SHEAR PROFILE BECOMES MOVE
FAVORABLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE DUE TO A POOR MIXING PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SUCH...SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THE SUN RISES WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT. AFTER THAT
POINT...DRIER LAYER RH PROFILES MEAN A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD +10C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS DOES
REPRESENT ROUGHLY 2C OF COOLING FROM TODAY...A BETTER MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO DRY ADIABATIC
WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY MEAN A WARMER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE AREA AS A WHOLE LOOKS RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN INTO THE 70S.
THESE READINGS ARE AROUND HALF A DOZEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE RIDGES ON FRIDAY IS THE EXCEPTION...AS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.
FOR TEMPS...FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET
BLEND ON THURSDAY...CONSIDERING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY
FROM NEAR KZZV TO KHLG TO KAGC. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...COVERAGE
OF TS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
THUNDERSTORMS...CIGS/VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING NEAR
KZZV...KHLWG...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. SKIES
SEEMS LIKELY TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 182008
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SECOND...AN UPR LVL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING OVERLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...BUT BEST ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR SW CWFA (TRI-STATE) WILL HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE FROM THE UPR
LVL WX DISTURBANCE. ALL IN ALL...HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ATTM
AND WILL SEE IF COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WITH
MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL APPEARS SLATED FOR OUR SWRN
CWFA GIVEN THE REASON MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY A LITTLE TOUGH TO DISCERN BUT BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES...IT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE
STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF RICHMOND TO AROUND COLUMBUS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO IN THE LAST HOUR
OR SO ALONG THIS LINE. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING INTO
A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDS AND PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS MAY HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
A DEGREE. VORT MAX DROPPING DOWN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KCVG/KLUK
TAF SITES. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE VORT AND ALSO LOSE THE INSTABILITY. WITH SOME
LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY PRIMARILY
MVFR BR RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181900
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.
FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181854
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E OF AREA BY 20Z...TAKING BULK OF RAINS WITH IT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THIS DOES SO WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN MAINLY OVER SE OH/NE KY/W WV. THINK BKW WILL
HOLD ONTO MUCH OF THE IFR STRATUS...PERHAPS TRYING TO IMPROVE INTO
MVFR.
WILL TURN ATTENTION TO APPROACHING SFC FRONT FROM NW AND ANOTHER
S/W TROF. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME BKN SHRA WITH THIS AS IT
WORKS THRU LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SOME VCSH IN W TAF SITES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ATTM.
FG FCST TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP POST
FRONTAL AS FLOW TURNS TO NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV/SW VA. WILL PLAY
A COMBO FOR NOW WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR MOST OF TAF SITES GIVEN
RAINS TDY. DID TAKE MTN SITES DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS GET INTO KPKB LATE TO ALLOW LIFR FG TO FORM.
FG/STRATUS LIFTS BY 15Z...PERHAPS BRIEFLY INTO MVFR CU...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO 4 TO 5 THSD BASES IN AFTN. A FEW MTN SHRA POSSIBLE IN
AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MUCH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181826
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TROD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY ZANESVILLE TO
WHEELING TO PITTSBURGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES AND THE SHEAR PROFILE BECOMES MOVE
FAVORABLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE DUE TO A POOR MIXING PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SUCH...SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THE SUN RISES WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT. AFTER THAT
POINT...DRIER LAYER RH PROFILES MEAN A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD +10C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS DOES
REPRESENT ROUGHLY 2C OF COOLING FROM TODAY...A BETTER MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO DRY ADIABATIC
WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY MEAN A WARMER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE AREA AS A WHOLE LOOKS RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN INTO THE 70S.
THESE READINGS ARE AROUND HALF A DOZEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY
FROM NEAR KZZV TO KHLG TO KAGC. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...COVERAGE
OF TS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
THUNDERSTORMS...CIGS/VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING NEAR
KZZV...KHLWG...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. SKIES
SEEMS LIKELY TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 181737
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS IS PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...VORT MAX OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
GIVEN CURRENT PCPN/CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
ATTM. MID AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT TODAY BUT IT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY LATER TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE
RIDGE BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW
SLIGHT CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIMEFRAME REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS.
SFC FRONT TO LAY OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A
LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY A LITTLE TOUGH TO DISCERN BUT BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES...IT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE
STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF RICHMOND TO AROUND COLUMBUS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO IN THE LAST HOUR
OR SO ALONG THIS LINE. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING INTO
A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDS AND PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS MAY HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
A DEGREE. VORT MAX DROPPING DOWN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KCVG/KLUK
TAF SITES. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE VORT AND ALSO LOSE THE INSTABILITY. WITH SOME
LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY PRIMARILY
MVFR BR RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THRU MOST OF THE
CWA...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER BACK BEHIND THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY IS DECREASED BEHIND THE FRONT SO DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO LAKESHORE SHOULD BE DRY
REST OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AWAY
THAT QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WITH
THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181645
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TOWARD WESTERN MARYLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A ROUGHLY 80 KT
UPPER JET STREAM....AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY MOVING VORT
MAXIMA. WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S AND SLOWLY MOVING BUT SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING
COMING INTO PLAY...THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR RELATIVELY SLOWLY-
MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT...A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GARRET/TUCKER/PRESTON COUNTIES TO
COVER MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY
MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF CURRENTLY LIES FROM ROUGHLY
COLUMBUS TO ALMOST PITTSBURGH TO NEAR DUBOIS. IN THE AREA BETWEEN
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND AND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THEIR
DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLOW DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY
AND LATE ARRIVING SHEAR VALUES...HOWEVER THE FIRST CELLS ARE
POPPING IN COSHOCTON AND TUSCARAWS COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...AND IT
WOULD SEEM THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE DOWN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING
CLOUDINESS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY 500-800
J/KG...HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SEEMS TO BE RELEGATED TO POINTS TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA. ANY CLEARING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SEEMS TO
STILL BE WEST OF COLUMBUS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA
FROM BEING ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. AS SUCH...NO
SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WERE DROPPED A BIT FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
ONGOING CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DIURNAL RISES IN
CHECK. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS MRNG...BUT SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
DVLP...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTN AS A CDFNT SAGS
ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE BTR CHC FOR TERMINAL EFFECTS WL
BE FOR PORTS S OF PIT AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY SPPRT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTM DVLPMNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TNGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO PRODUCE GENL VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181613
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1213 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH THRU MOST OF THE CWA...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER BACK
BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS DECREASED BEHIND THE FORNT SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO LAKESHORE SHOULD
BE DRY REST OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AWAY
THAT QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WITH
THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181528
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1128 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON DEWPOINTS...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALFWAY SOUTH
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THE REST
OF THE DAY. PATCHY STRATUS AROUND TOL AND NW PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MIXING INCREASES NEW HOUR OR TWO.
S/W DROPPING SE TOWARD SW OH LATE TODAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST. SCT CONVECTION STILL LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE/NNE WIND SHOULD PROTECT THE LAKESHORE FROM ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES.
WITH THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181358
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
958 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
UPR LVL WAVE TRACKING THRU AREA WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW
MOVING E ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/S KY. WIDESPREAD
RAINS...OCCASIONALLY HVY...HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME CONVECTION ELEMENTS NOTED ACROSS SE OH WHERE LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING ATTM. HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2 AMNTS ESTIMATED BY
DUAL POL ACROSS ROANE CO OVER PAST 1 TO 2 HRS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AND REPORTS OF SOME FLOODED ROADS
BEGINNING TO TRICKLE IN. OTHER AREA OF NOTE...1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED ACROSS EXTREME SE AND E RALEIGH CO. WILL FORGO WATCH FOR
NOW GIVEN MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RAINS HAVE SHIFTED INTO N WV AND SE
OH...AWAY FROM WETTEST AREAS ACROSS THE S. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
WATER PROBLEMS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINS ARE MOVE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE. WILL BE WATCHING PORTIONS OF SE OH AND EXTREME N WV
LOWLANDS NEXT COUPLE HRS FOR SOME LCL WATER PROBLEMS.
THIS SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
LATE. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE INTO AREA THIS
EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF MOVING IN FROM SW. SHOULD THERE
BE ANY RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH RVR...COULD BE SOME
STRONG CONVECTION 21Z TO 00Z AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR...LCL IFR...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WERE THE RESULT OF A SYSTEM THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFT 18 UTC...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.
A SECOND SYSTEM...WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 22 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFT 06 UTC...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD THEN RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AGAIN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KILN 181324
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
924 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS IS PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...VORT MAX OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
GIVEN CURRENT PCPN/CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
ATTM. MID AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT TODAY BUT IT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY LATER TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE
RIDGE BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW
SLIGHT CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIMEFRAME REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS.
SFC FRONT TO LAY OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A
LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS ENERGY WORKS THROUGH
THE FAST FLOW ACROSS SRN OH/IN AND INTO KY. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS SUPPORT SLIPS E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THAT THIS
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES.
THE A SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHC
OF TSTM THIS AFTN INTO EVENING LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...SO PUT A TEMPO IN THE CVG/LUK TAFS AROUND 00Z FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE SECOND S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT
THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z AND SCT OUT THE CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE SOUTHERN TAFS...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT LUK.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181323
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON DEWPOINTS...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALFWAY SOUTH
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THE REST
OF THE DAY. PATCHY STRATUS AROUND TOL AND NW PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
MIXING INCREASES NEW HOUR OR TWO.
S/W DROPPING SE TOWARD SW OH LATE TODAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST. SCT CONVECTION STILL LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE/NNE WIND SHOULD PROTECT THE LAKESHORE FROM ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181246
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
846 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE UPDATE CENTERED AROUND REMOVING POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA CENTERED AROUND PITTSBURGH FOR A FEW
HOURS...BEFORE TRENDING A BIT WETTER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO OOZE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE FOCUS BASICALLY RUNNING FROM ZANESVILLE TO UNIONTOWN AT
THE MOMENT.
BY AFTN...BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
TWD I 70. WITH AFTN WARMTH...DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCRS SUFFICIENTLY TO SPPRT LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH OF
PIT...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPPRT MARGINALLY SVR STORMS GIVEN
MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS MRNG...BUT SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
DVLP...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTN AS A CDFNT SAGS
ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE BTR CHC FOR TERMINAL EFFECTS WL
BE FOR PORTS S OF PIT AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY SPPRT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTM DVLPMNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TNGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO PRODUCE GENL VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181132
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR...LCL IFR...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WERE THE RESULT OF A SYSTEM THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFT 18 UTC...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.
A SECOND SYSTEM...WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 22 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFT 06 UTC...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H M M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD THEN RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AGAIN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181056
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
656 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
EDINBORO IN NW PA TO FINDLAY. UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND H8 FRONT LAGGING. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY MORNING
MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KILN 181035
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO KEY OFF OF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MIX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS
BARELY DISCERNABLE...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND A MID LEVEL PUSH WILL LET UPDRAFTS ACCELERATE
QUICKLY LATER TODAY. WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY
STRONG...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR TILTED UPDRAFTS TO
SUPPORT A WET MICROBURST PATTERN...POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
BEFORE THE STORMS RAIN THEMSELVES OUT...OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS
INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO LAST LONG IN ANY ONE LOCATION BUT HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND A QUICK RAMP-UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL ARE REAL THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS ENERGY WORKS THROUGH
THE FAST FLOW ACROSS SRN OH/IN AND INTO KY. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS SUPPORT SLIPS E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THAT THIS
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES.
THE A SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHC
OF TSTM THIS AFTN INTO EVENING LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...SO PUT A TEMPO IN THE CVG/LUK TAFS AROUND 00Z FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE SECOND S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT
THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z AND SCT OUT THE CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE SOUTHERN TAFS...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT LUK.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181029
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
EDINBORO IN NW PA TO FINDLAY. UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND H8 FRONT LAGGING. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181009
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L H M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181006
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS...MAINLY TO
DELAY PCPN AS SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DVLP. HOWEVER...SCT SHWRS
AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DVLP AS THE
MRNG PROGRESSES.
BY AFTN...BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
TWD I 70. WITH AFTN WARMTH...DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCRS SUFFICIENTLY TO SPPRT LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH OF
PIT...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPPRT MARGINALLY SVR STORMS GIVEN
MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS MRNG...BUT SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
DVLP...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTN AS A CDFNT SAGS
ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE BTR CHC FOR TERMINAL EFFECTS WL
BE FOR PORTS S OF PIT AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY SPPRT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTM DVLPMNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TNGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO PRODUCE GENL VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180813
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PLACED ALONG LAKE ERIE
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. INITIALLY...THE SITUATION WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND
SOUTHWARD COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT.
SKY COVERAGE WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HENCE...LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...YIELDING AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.
CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS MRNG...BUT SVRL FEATURES MAY MAR THE
FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
THRU THE PERIDAWN HRS GIVEN THE MOIST BNDRY LYR...BUT HIGH
MDL-PROGGED CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...DRY ADVCTN IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE THE SFC LYR...AND INCRSD MID LVL CLDINESS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD IFR...OR MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP...AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTN AS A CDFNT SAGS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY
REGION. THE BTR CHC FOR TERMINAL EFFECTS WL BE FOR PORTS S OF PIT
AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY SPPRT MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTM
DVLPMNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL PROGRESS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TNGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO PRODUCE GENL VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 180813
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO KEY OFF OF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MIX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS
BARELY DISCERNABLE...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND A MID LEVEL PUSH WILL LET UPDRAFTS ACCELERATE
QUICKLY LATER TODAY. WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY
STRONG...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR TILTED UPDRAFTS TO
SUPPORT A WET MICROBURST PATTERN...POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
BEFORE THE STORMS RAIN THEMSELVES OUT...OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS
INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO LAST LONG IN ANY ONE LOCATION BUT HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND A QUICK RAMP-UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL ARE REAL THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF TWO H5 S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD IS SWINGING ACROSS KY ATTM. THIS ENERGY IS HELPING TO
DRIVE THE CONVECTION ACROSS KY AND SRN OHIO. BEST LIFT FROM THIS
S/W WILL WORK E QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
CONVECTION IS WANING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION
BETWEEN AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS
STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN MIGHT BE AROUND 00Z AS
THE BEST LIFT FROM THE S/W MOVES. THAT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT TO ADD
A TEMPO RIGHT NOW. FOR THE 30 HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE
MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
TOLEDO TO BUFFALO. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THERE WILL REMAIN SOME
CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS MORNING
SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180625
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PLACED ALONG LAKE ERIE
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. INITIALLY...THE SITUATION WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND
SOUTHWARD COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT.
SKY COVERAGE WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HENCE...LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...YIELDING AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS MRNG...BUT SVRL FEATURES MAY MAR THE
FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
THRU THE PREDAWN GIVEN THE MOIST BNDRY LYR...BUT HIGH MDL-PROGGED
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND DRY ADVCTN ABOVE THE SFC LYR ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP TNGT...AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUE AFTN AS A CDFNT SAGS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY
REGION. THE BTR CHC FOR TERMINAL AFFECTS WL BE FOR PORTS S OF PIT
AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY SPPRT MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTM
DVLPMNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL PROGRESS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TNGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO PRODUCE GENL VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 180557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF TWO H5 S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD IS SWINGING ACROSS KY ATTM. THIS ENERGY IS HELPING TO
DRIVE THE CONVECTION ACROSS KY AND SRN OHIO. BEST LIFT FROM THIS
S/W WILL WORK E QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
CONVECTION IS WANING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION
BETWEEN AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS
STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN MIGHT BE AROUND 00Z AS
THE BEST LIFT FROM THE S/W MOVES. THAT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT TO ADD
A TEMPO RIGHT NOW. FOR THE 30 HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE
MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180556
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE S OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
PREV DISCN...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
...ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180456
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS NE OHIO/NW PA. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED BOW SIGNATURE CAN
BE OBSERVED ON RADAR WITH 40+ KNOTS INBOUND ON THE KCLE RADAR AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SW LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80 PERCENT IN NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL BE
OVERCAST AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180328
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1128 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES TO ADJUST FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ABOVE A SITUATED FRONT. AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WIND
SHEAR OF 45KTS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA.
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WITH THE HELP OF A MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
REINVIGORATED SO CHANCE POPS WERE REINTRODUCED OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD FROM A
DEVELOPING LOW THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
SO MINS WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
TUESDAY...OWING TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN
IN QUESTION AS THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE
GFS. ULTIMATELY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
OVERALL...EXPECTING SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW WITH SHEAR BEING THE
PRIMARY FACTOR IF STORMS REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLD TSTMS WL CONT TO DSPT THIS EVE. TSTM COMPLEX OVR LK ERI HAS
BEEN WKNG PER RECENT VIL LOOPS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON STLT...AND
EXP THIS TO DMNSH BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. EXPTG MAINLY VFR CONDS
THRU MUCH OF TUE...WITH PTCHY MVFR VSBY IN BR ARND SUNRISE. A CDFNT
WL SLOWLY DROP SWD ACRS THE RGN TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVG OF ANY TSTMS SO ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TUE NGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...THEN HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180213
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS NE OHIO/NW PA. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED BOW SIGNATURE CAN
BE OBSERVED ON RADAR WITH 40+ KNOTS INBOUND ON THE KCLE RADAR AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SW LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80 PERCENT IN NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL BE
OVERCAST AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER MICHIGAN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WORSE THAN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT A BRIEF IFR COULD BE
REACHED IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND
TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KILN 180147
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.
ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180143
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK FROM EARLY UPDATE WITH
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION.
HOWEVER AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WITH THE HELP OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE REINVIGORATED SO CHANCE POPS WERE REINTRODUCED OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
SO MINS WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
TUESDAY...OWING TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN
IN QUESTION AS THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE
GFS. ULTIMATELY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
OVERALL EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH ONLY
WEAK-MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLD TSTMS WL CONT TO DSPT THIS EVE. TSTM COMPLEX OVR LK ERI HAS
BEEN WKNG PER RECENT VIL LOOPS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON STLT...AND
EXP THIS TO DMNSH BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. EXPTG MAINLY VFR CONDS
THRU MUCH OF TUE...WITH PTCHY MVFR VSBY IN BR ARND SUNRISE. A CDFNT
WL SLOWLY DROP SWD ACRS THE RGN TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVG OF ANY TSTMS SO ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TUE NGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...THEN HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180009
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE S OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
PREV DISCN...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LESS STRATUS AND MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NT. THE FOG WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH IFR MOST LIKELY AT EKN.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CODED...ESPECIALLY S. IFR
ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES LIGHT NE ON TUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172341
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WITH THE HELP OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE REINVIGORATED SO CHANCE POPS WERE REINTRODUCED OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
SO MINS WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
TUESDAY...OWING TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN
IN QUESTION AS THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE
GFS. ULTIMATELY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
OVERALL EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH ONLY
WEAK-MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLD TSTMS WL CONT TO DSPT THIS EVE. TSTM COMPLEX OVR LK ERI HAS
BEEN WKNG PER RECENT VIL LOOPS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON STLT...AND
EXP THIS TO DMNSH BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. EXPTG MAINLY VFR CONDS
THRU MUCH OF TUE...WITH PTCHY MVFR VSBY IN BR ARND SUNRISE. A CDFNT
WL SLOWLY DROP SWD ACRS THE RGN TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVG OF ANY TSTMS SO ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TUE NGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...THEN HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
34/07
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172330
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WITH THE HELP OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE REINVIGORATED SO CHANCE POPS WERE REINTRODUCED OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
SO MINS WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
TUESDAY...OWING TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN
IN QUESTION AS THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE
GFS. ULTIMATELY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
OVERALL EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH ONLY
WEAK-MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 172329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE LARGELY ENDED ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY REACH NE
OHIO/NW PA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LOWER OVER THERE BUT ONE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS ACROSS NW OHIO BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE- DEVELOP AT THAT TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER MICHIGAN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WORSE THAN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT A BRIEF IFR COULD BE
REACHED IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND
TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KILN 172302
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN
THE HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA IS PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG EVIDENT...ISOLATED TSRA COULD FORM THIS EVENING IN OUR
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MAJOR FORCING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP CELLS FROM BECOMING NUMEROUS.
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...AND THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO ABOUT 64.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY NOON TUESDAY AS ONE SHORT
WAVE TRAVELS THROUGH KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
FORCING EXITING EAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.
ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 172217
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE LARGELY ENDED ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY REACH NE
OHIO/NW PA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LOWER OVER THERE BUT ONE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS ACROSS NW OHIO BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE- DEVELOP AT THAT TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PRECIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172115 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
515 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FCST UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING SVR TSTMS IN ERN OH. HIGHER MSTR
CONTENT HAS PROMOTED STRONGER INSTBY SUCH THAT A FEW TSTMS WERE
ABLE TO STRENGTHEN THRU THE MID-LVL WARM AIR. HAIL AND WIND HAVE
BEEN REPORTED. POPS AND QPF WERE INCRD. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. UPSTREAM...SOME LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION (LAKE ERIE) WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE A
FEW CONTRIBUTORS HAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THESE INCLUDE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z
HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC INCREASING TO CHC POP THROUGH
MUCH THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM DIURNAL
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SERIES OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT. THUS...THE FORCING PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NOCTURNALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTHERN WV TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO NOT SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
LEADING TO FORECAST HIGH NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 172028
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN
THE HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA IS PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG EVIDENT...ISOLATED TSRA COULD FORM THIS EVENING IN OUR
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MAJOR FORCING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP CELLS FROM BECOMING NUMEROUS.
THAT WILL CHANCE LATER TONIGHT WHEN A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...AND THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO ABOUT 64.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY NOON TUESDAY AS ONE SHORT
WAVE TRAVELS THROUGH KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
FORCING EXITING EAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION...FORMING A
SCT-TO-BKN CUMULUS DECK AT LEVELS HOVERING VERY CLOSE TO THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY
19Z.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND THEN DURING THE EVENING
AT THE CINCINNATI LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...SO A VCSH WILL BE USED IN THE
FORECAST. SOME MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER (AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY AFTER THE 18Z END
OF THE REGULAR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171953
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY THOUGH STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT THINK
THAT VALLEY FOG WILL ISSUE TONIGHT DESPITE THE OVERRUNNING CIRRUS
DECK. ALSO PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE
TIMING SUCH THAT THE VALLEY FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL MIX OUT
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE WEST MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO
SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JR
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171923
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THE
88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND AND
HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY FORM. AS A RESULT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE AND COULD EVENTUALLY
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP COULD GET AN
INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO THE STORMS SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING REALLY LACKING
TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT THE NW END OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE STORMS WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PREIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT. GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171915
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
315 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. UPSTREAM...SOME LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION (LAKE ERIE) WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE A
FEW CONTRIBUTORS HAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THESE INCLUDE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z
HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC INCREASING TO CHC POP THROUGH
MUCH THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM DIURNAL
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SERIES OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT. THUS...THE FORCING PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NOCTURNALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTHERN WV TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO NOT SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
LEADING TO FORECAST HIGH NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171850
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. UPSTREAM...SOME LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION (LAKE ERIE) WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE A
FEW CONTRIBUTORS HAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THESE INCLUDE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z
HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC INCREASING TO CHC POP THROUGH
MUCH THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM DIURNAL
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SERIES OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT. THUS...THE FORCING PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NOCTURNALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTHERN WV TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO NOT SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
LEADING TO FORECAST HIGH NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND SUPPRESS PCPN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL AIR UNDER
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDANT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM
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