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000
FXUS61 KILN 301327
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR CUT EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW EROSION TO THESE LOWER
CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE
A SOLID BAND. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ENCROACHING NEAR THE
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT ACRS THE AREA
THRU THIS MRNG. SOME DCR IN CLDS IS EXPD LTR THIS AFTN AS WK
SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR AGAIN OVRNGT AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV.
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A RATHER HISTORICALLY DEEP H500
TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY.  12Z GEFS/NAEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING MUCH OF A SNOW
IMPACT FOR THE CWA.

H500 UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AT 12Z FRIDAY TO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  CERTAINLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND
AND SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SURFACE.  STILL FORESEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
CORNER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING TO ALL SNOW AND PERHAPS PICKING
UP A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
FROM H925 ON DOWN LOOK TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVES OFFSHORE...FEEDING A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO COLLAPSE IN FROM THE NORTH AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...BUT BY THEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.  POPS DROP OFF TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY.  BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN.  DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDING IN THE MOST
RECENT MOS GUIDANCE.  VALUES WILL RUN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST PORTS THIS
MRNG WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTN AS COLD ADVCTN CEASES AND AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDR A SHRTWV RIDGE.

LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA TODAY WHILE
WEAKENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
INTO VIRGINIA BY MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO OHIO
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND TO KEEP THE THREAT GOING
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHRA WELL INTO THE DAY. THE WEST PART OF THE AREA
WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. LACK
OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL STAY WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP AS JUST RAIN. NO WARM ADVECTION OCCURS
TODAY SO TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGH FROM THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND CUTOFF AS IT
CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE
CWA FRI BEFORE THE ENERGY SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THRU FRI. THE SITUATION FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE TRICKY AS THE
RACE WILL BE ON AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BEFORE COLD
ENOUGH AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS ALOFT ONLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE WEST LATER FRI NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE TAPERING DOWN SO PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

EVEN ON SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPS HANGING AROUND MINUS 3 AND SURFACE
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP CAN
BE SNOW AND WHETHER IT CAN ACCUMULATE MUCH. THUS SEE A SIMILAR
SITUATION TO FRI NIGHT WITH QUESTIONABLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS. BOUNDARY TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT
NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE REMAINING PRECIP IN THE EAST SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE GETS PULLED ESE OF THE AREA.

ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IN THE MORNING IN NW PA...OTHERWISE SUN SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE 40S.

SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN COULD DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS OCCURRING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO
CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK WITH THE
SHOWERS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE LAKE WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY GET SHOVED EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE. ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK
OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE AFTER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED. WE WILL STILL NEED TO
RAMP UP WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GO
WITH A GALE WATCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A DEFINITE WITH THEM
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KILN 301047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIRLY SOLID PATCHES AND BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STUNT THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...IN AN AREA THAT WAS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SOME VERY
COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL START MORE OF A DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER).

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH AN ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOL JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE ARRANGEMENT TODAY WILL
FEATURE MUCH LESS OF A GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ENCROACHING NEAR THE
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 301047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIRLY SOLID PATCHES AND BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STUNT THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...IN AN AREA THAT WAS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SOME VERY
COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL START MORE OF A DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER).

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH AN ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOL JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE ARRANGEMENT TODAY WILL
FEATURE MUCH LESS OF A GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ENCROACHING NEAR THE
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 301012
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
612 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA TODAY WHILE
WEAKENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
INTO VIRGINIA BY MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO OHIO
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND TO KEEP THE THREAT GOING
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHRA WELL INTO THE DAY. THE WEST PART OF THE AREA
WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. LACK
OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL STAY WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP AS JUST RAIN. NO WARM ADVECTION OCCURS
TODAY SO TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGH FROM THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND CUTOFF AS IT
CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE
CWA FRI BEFORE THE ENERGY SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THRU FRI. THE SITUATION FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE TRICKY AS THE
RACE WILL BE ON AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BEFORE COLD
ENOUGH AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS ALOFT ONLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE WEST LATER FRI NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE TAPERING DOWN SO PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

EVEN ON SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPS HANGING AROUND MINUS 3 AND SURFACE
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP CAN
BE SNOW AND WHETHER IT CAN ACCUMULATE MUCH. THUS SEE A SIMILAR
SITUATION TO FRI NIGHT WITH QUESTIONABLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS. BOUNDARY TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT
NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE REMAINING PRECIP IN THE EAST SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE GETS PULLED ESE OF THE AREA.

ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IN THE MORNING IN NW PA...OTHERWISE SUN SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE 40S.

SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN COULD DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS OCCURRING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO
CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD END BY 10Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK UNTIL MID MORNING.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE LAKE WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY GET SHOVED EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE. ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK
OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE AFTER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED. WE WILL STILL NEED TO
RAMP UP WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GO
WITH A GALE WATCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A DEFINITE WITH THEM
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC/MULLEN










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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
452 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WITH RAIN FRIDAY EVENING. COLDER
AIR AND THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE TODAY...AND
THEN TO OUR EAST BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTH
TEXAS.

AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE
NORTH.

AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST LATE AS WELL.

FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY LOOKED GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED VALUES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR...THIS TREND IS
BELIEVABLE. HOWEVER...FEEL INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MAY OCCUR. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOW OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV AND VA
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS IN THE SOUTHERN WV COAL
FIELDS...OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...

WHATEVER THE WINTER OF 2014/15 WILL BRING...IT BEGINS EARLY AND
LOUDLY...AS MAJOR E COAST L/W TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE EARLY
THIS PERIOD.

A NRN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS ALMOST DUE S...DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AMPLIFYING L/W AND INTO THE BASE...OR FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SMOKIES...12Z FRI-12Z SAT.  A LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALREADY IN
THE BASE OF THE L/W OVER THE SERN STATES AS OF 12Z FRI...MOVES UP
THE E SIDE OF THE L/W...ALONG THE E COAST...GENERATING AN INITIAL
SFC WAVE ALONG AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

FRI FINDS THE FCST AREA ALREADY IN IN RELATIVELY DRY...CHILLY AIR
NEARLY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SNOW WITH KEY VALUES NEAR
THRESHOLDS...LIKE 0C AT H8.5 AND 540 KM BETWEEN H5 AND H10...ALONG
WITH PROGGED PW VALUES OF ONLY TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH.  AS SUCH...THE
NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE OR
BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH AS IT DIGS THROUGH OR JUST W OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NOT REALLY CRANKING UP
UNTIL THE LOW APPROACHES THE SE COAST.

SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT FRI AS THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NRN STREAM FEATURE...APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH FROM THE W.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI NT INTO
SAT...AS THE NEGATIVE TILT FEATURE DIGGING S OF THE AREA PLACES THE
AREA IN STRONG FORCING INCLUDING Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL KEEP QPF VALUES MAINLY BELOW A HALF AN
INCH / 6 HRS.

THE COLD CORE SLIDES SEWD ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NT
INTO SAT...WHILE THE WARMER AIR GETS HUNG UP OVER NERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA FRI INTO FRI NT...UNTIL THE PRIMARY SFC LOW JUST TO
THE N FILLS BY SAT MORNING.  THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR DOES NOT
GET COMPLETELY ERADICATED...KEEPING ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE
2500 OR EVEN 3000 FT...WITH LEVELS PERHAPS GETTING BELOW 2500 FT
OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK.

ALL OF THIS SORT OF BALANCES SNOW AMTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THE COLDEST
AIR OVER THE SMALLER SRN MOUNTAINS.  GENERALLY LOOKING AT COUNTY
AVERAGES IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AT BEST...WITH PEAK AMOUNTS NEAR 4
INCHES FOR THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES AT SNOWSHOE.
WILL THUS MAINTAIN HWO MENTION FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

AS THE L/W SHIFTS E...THE SYSTEM SCOOTS UP THE E
COAST...OFFSHORE...IT MAKE TAKE UNTIL SUN MORNING FOR THE UPSLOPE
SNOWS SHOWERS TO WANE AND THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP.  HIGH PRESSURE
SAILS ACROSS SUN NT...PROVING IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING MOST OF THE NT,

HAVE TEMPERATURES NEARER LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE NOT A GOOD FIT IN THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT WHERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. STILL NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MIST/FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT...SUCH AS
CRW AND EKN...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

EXPECT ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 10/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING IN RAIN...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH







000
FXUS61 KILN 300826
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIRLY SOLID PATCHES AND BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STUNT THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...IN AN AREA THAT WAS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SOME VERY
COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL START MORE OF A DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER).

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH AN ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOL JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE ARRANGEMENT TODAY WILL
FEATURE MUCH LESS OF A GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BKN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AFTER
SUNRISE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH PCPN
REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR SFC FLOW VEERED NWRLY OVERNIGHT AND A PLUME OF LAKE MOISTURE
DEVELOPED LOW STRATOCU OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND AREAS
ADJACENT. SRN EXPANSION OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS DRY AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ERODE THE MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS
HAS SQUASHED WIDESPREAD LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS AND HAS LED TO
ALMOST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED UP OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME
MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS...BUT SHELTERED LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES HAVE RADIATED DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.

LOOKING FORWARD...CLOUD FORECAST DIFFICULT THROUGH TODAY AS MOST
HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR
INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODIFIED THE
INITIAL SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HAVE
GRADUALLY BLENDED INTO TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXPECTING TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG
THE NORTH UNDER THE LAKE ENHANCED REGION WHILE GETTING AT LEAST
SOME PATCHES OF SUN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA.

FORECAST AREA REMAINS COOL TODAY UNDER NW FLOW REGIME. WITH VERY
LOW SPREAD ACROSS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED MET.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A RATHER HISTORICALLY DEEP H500
TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY.  12Z GEFS/NAEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING MUCH OF A SNOW
IMPACT FOR THE CWA.

H500 UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AT 12Z FRIDAY TO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  CERTAINLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND
AND SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SURFACE.  STILL FORESEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
CORNER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING TO ALL SNOW AND PERHAPS PICKING
UP A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
FROM H925 ON DOWN LOOK TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVES OFFSHORE...FEEDING A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO COLLAPSE IN FROM THE NORTH AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...BUT BY THEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.  POPS DROP OFF TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY.  BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN.  DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDING IN THE MOST
RECENT MOS GUIDANCE.  VALUES WILL RUN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS
MEANS.  A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.  ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH
ARRIVES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE
SYSTEMS...PROMISING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE
STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR SFC FLOW VEERED NWRLY OVERNIGHT AND A PLUME OF LAKE MOISTURE
DEVELOPED LOW STRATOCU OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND AREAS
ADJACENT. SRN EXPANSION OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS DRY AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ERODE THE MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS
HAS SQUASHED WIDESPREAD LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS AND HAS LED TO
ALMOST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED UP OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME
MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS...BUT SHELTERED LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES HAVE RADIATED DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.

LOOKING FORWARD...CLOUD FORECAST DIFFICULT THROUGH TODAY AS MOST
HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR
INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODIFIED THE
INITIAL SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HAVE
GRADUALLY BLENDED INTO TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXPECTING TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG
THE NORTH UNDER THE LAKE ENHANCED REGION WHILE GETTING AT LEAST
SOME PATCHES OF SUN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA.

FORECAST AREA REMAINS COOL TODAY UNDER NW FLOW REGIME. WITH VERY
LOW SPREAD ACROSS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED MET.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE
STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA TODAY WHILE
WEAKENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
INTO VIRGINIA BY MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO OHIO
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND TO KEEP THE THREAT GOING
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHRA WELL INTO THE DAY. THE WEST PART OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADED TOWARD THE AREA.
LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY TEMPS THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP AS JUST RAIN. NO WARM ADVECTION OCCUR
TODAY SO TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGH FROM THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND CUTOFF AS IT
CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE
CWA FRI BEFORE THE ENERGY SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THRU FRI. THE SITUATION FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE TRICKY AS THE
RACE WILL BE ON AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BEFORE COLD
ENOUGH AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS ALOFT ONLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE WEST LATER FRI NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE TAPERING DOWN SO PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

EVEN ON SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPS HANGING AROUND MINUS 3 AND SURFACE
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP CAN
BE SNOW AND WHETHER IT CAN ACCUMULATE MUCH. THUS SEE A SIMILAR
SITUATION TO FRI NIGHT WITH QUESTIONABLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS. BOUNDARY TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT
NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE REMAINING PRECIP IN THE EAST SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE GETS PULLED ESE OF THE AREA.

ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IN THE MORNING IN NW PA...OTHERWISE SUN SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE 40S.

SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN COULD DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS OCCURRING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO
CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD END BY 10Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK UNTIL MID MORNING.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE LAKE WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY GET SHOVED EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE. ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK
OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE AFTER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED. WE WILL STILL NEED TO
RAMP UP WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GO
WITH A GALE WATCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A DEFINITE WITH THEM
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC/MULLEN








000
FXUS61 KILN 300559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NW OF INTERSTATE 71
THIS EVENING. WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SE OF THIS AREA IN OHIO
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR FROST OVERNIGHT. LIMITED
FROST MENTION TO PATCHY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSION. IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF FROST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BKN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AFTER
SUNRISE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH PCPN
REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 300545
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WITH RAIN FRIDAY EVENING. COLDER
AIR AND THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE TODAY...AND
THEN TO OUR EAST BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTH
TEXAS.

AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE
NORTH.

AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST LATE AS WELL.

FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY LOOKED GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED VALUES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR...THIS TREND IS
BELIEVABLE. HOWEVER...FEEL INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MAY OCCUR. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOW OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS
IN SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC FRI NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AND LOW BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW BY 03Z IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS IN NE KY...C AND S
WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO
AREAS TOWARD DAWN. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND
PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW.

SAT MORNING...NAM/ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE CMC DIFFER FROM GFS
WITH PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE IT FARTHER SW...ACROSS SW VA/SE WV AND UP INTO
THE C LOWLANDS. THIS IS KEY AS TO WHO RECEIVES BEST SHOT OF A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER BLO 1000 FT IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS AXIS WILL
HAVE GOOD LIFT AND RH WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS
SUCH...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL COATING IN
SOME OF THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /PRE DAWN/ SHOULD A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCUR IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE
WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH CONSENSUS
RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. HAVE A COUPLE INCHES
IN ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. USED HPC WWD
GRIDS AS A BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN TWEAKING DOWN BASED ON
OUR FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS...INCORPORATING SOME RAW NAM/GFS
NUMBERS. THIS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BETWEEN VALLEY AND
HILLTOPS.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 3000
FT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT WHERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. STILL NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MIST/FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT...SUCH AS
CRW AND EKN...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

EXPECT ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 10/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING IN RAIN...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH






000
FXUS61 KCLE 300535
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
135 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE STUCK
WITH SCATTERED WORDING FROM KCLE EAST. SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OHIO SO HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THERE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD END BY 10Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK UNTIL MID MORNING.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF AVON POINT
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC/OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE. WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...DONT FORESEE MAKING LARGE
CHANGES WITH NEXT UPDATE.
TAX

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE
STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300421
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE. WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...DONT FORESEE MAKING LARGE CHANGES
WITH NEXT UPDATE.
TAX

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A
BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 300229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NW OF INTERSTATE 71
THIS EVENING. WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SE OF THIS AREA IN OHIO
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR FROST OVERNIGHT. LIMITED
FROST MENTION TO PATCHY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSION. IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF FROST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER
5 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 300155 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
945 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE UPDATE WE MADE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE RESTRICTED...AND WERE SLOWER...IN
THE RETURN OF STRATOCUMULUS IN THE COLDER 850 TEMPERATURE POOL.
STILL THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE FORMING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES 06Z
TO 12Z THURSDAY.

WILL ADD A BIT MORE PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN WV WITH THE CLEARER SKY. WILL HAVE THE MOST VALLEY FOG
IN SOUTHERN WV SOUTH OF CRW...08Z TO 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOW OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS
IN SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC FRI NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AND LOW BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW BY 03Z IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS IN NE KY...C AND S
WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO
AREAS TOWARD DAWN. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND
PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW.

SAT MORNING...NAM/ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE CMC DIFFER FROM GFS
WITH PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE IT FARTHER SW...ACROSS SW VA/SE WV AND UP INTO
THE C LOWLANDS. THIS IS KEY AS TO WHO RECEIVES BEST SHOT OF A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER BLO 1000 FT IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS AXIS WILL
HAVE GOOD LIFT AND RH WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS
SUCH...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL COATING IN
SOME OF THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /PRE DAWN/ SHOULD A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCUR IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE
WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH CONSENSUS
RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. HAVE A COUPLE INCHES
IN ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. USED HPC WWD
GRIDS AS A BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN TWEAKING DOWN BASED ON
OUR FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS...INCORPORATING SOME RAW NAM/GFS
NUMBERS. THIS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BETWEEN VALLEY AND
HILLTOPS.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 3000
FT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STILL SET AT MEDIUM...DUE TO QUESTIONS OF FORMATION AND
COVERAGE OF THE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO
12Z.  THINKING PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THICK FOG FOR
CRW...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR SINCE CLOUDS COULD EASILY BECOME
JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN.

OTHERWISE...JUST 3 TO 5 THSD FT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH
PERIOD...EXCEPT 2 THSD FT AGL OVER HIGHER RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 10/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING IN RAIN...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB














000
FXUS61 KRLX 300147
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
937 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM UPDATED WE MADE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE RESTRICTED AND WERE SLOWER IN THE
RETURN OF STRATOCUMULUS IN THE COLDER 850 TEMPERATURE POOL. STILL
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE FORMING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.

WILL ADD A BIT MORE PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN WV WITH THE CLEARER SKY. WILL HAVE THE MOST VALLEY FOG
IN SOUTHERN WV SOUTH OF CRW...08Z TO 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOW OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS
IN SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC FRI NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AND LOW BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW BY 03Z IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS IN NE KY...C AND S
WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO
AREAS TOWARD DAWN. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND
PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW.

SAT MORNING...NAM/ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE CMC DIFFER FROM GFS
WITH PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE IT FARTHER SW...ACROSS SW VA/SE WV AND UP INTO
THE C LOWLANDS. THIS IS KEY AS TO WHO RECEIVES BEST SHOT OF A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER BLO 1000 FT IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS AXIS WILL
HAVE GOOD LIFT AND RH WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS
SUCH...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL COATING IN
SOME OF THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /PRE DAWN/ SHOULD A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCUR IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE
WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH CONSENSUS
RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. HAVE A COUPLE INCHES
IN ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. USED HPC WWD
GRIDS AS A BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN TWEAKING DOWN BASED ON
OUR FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS...INCORPORATING SOME RAW NAM/GFS
NUMBERS. THIS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BETWEEN VALLEY AND
HILLTOPS.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 3000
FT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STILL SET AT MEDIUM...DUE TO QUESTIONS OF FORMATION AND
COVERAGE OF THE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO
12Z.  THINKING PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THICK FOG FOR
CRW...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR SINCE CLOUDS COULD EASILY BECOME
JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN.

OTHERWISE...JUST 3 TO 5 THSD FT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH
PERIOD...EXCEPT 2 THSD FT AGL OVER HIGHER RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 10/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING IN RAIN...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KCLE 300139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE STUCK
WITH SCATTERED WORDING FROM KCLE EAST. SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OHIO SO HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THERE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. WHAT
WILL BE LEFT TONIGHT IS A BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILING.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING STILL EXPECTED FOR TOL/FDY BUT FLOW OFF
OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR OTHER SITES. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF AVON POINT
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC/OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300128
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES.
DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW FOR A
SPRINKLE IN THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL...HOWEVER THE TIME FRAME
DURING WHICH THIS COULD OCCUR IS RATHER SHORT AS RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS IN TOWARD MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR IN THE COLUMN AND A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS NECESSARY
FOR AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A
BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 300053
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
853 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE STUCK
WITH SCATTERED WORDING FROM KCLE EAST. SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OHIO SO HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THERE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. WHAT
WILL BE LEFT TONIGHT IS A BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILING.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING STILL EXPECTED FOR TOL/FDY BUT FLOW OFF
OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR OTHER SITES. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 AM BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR A
PORTION OF THE LAKE AS WAVES SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 292339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PRECIP MENTION BACK TO THE WEST A LITTLE AND GONE WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED WORDING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY CONDITION AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...A SURFACE AND UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE OMEGA IS
LIMITED. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR
16C. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM CLE EAST AND WITH
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS EARLY AND THEN CHANCE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SPRINKLES EARLY FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND. THE CLOUD FORECAST
IS TOUGH FOR NW OHIO. WENT WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS BUT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO IT MAY END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. WHAT
WILL BE LEFT TONIGHT IS A BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILING.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING STILL EXPECTED FOR TOL/FDY BUT FLOW OFF
OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR OTHER SITES. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 AM BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR A
PORTION OF THE LAKE AS WAVES SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KILN 292322
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER
5 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 292237
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
623 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL BE SLOWER IN BRINGING BACK THE COLD AIR ADVECTED STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  ALSO ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS AROUND THE HTS TRI
STATE...INCLUDING NE KY.  THOUGH WE THINK PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE SEEN THERE LATE TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE
THE MOST VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN WV 06Z TO 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOWS OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV
MOUNTAINS/SW VA/ AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS IN S COAL FIELDS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC FRI NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AND LOW BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW BY 03Z IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS IN NE KY...C AND S
WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO
AREAS TOWARD DAWN. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND
PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW.

SAT MORNING...NAM/ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE CMC DIFFER FROM GFS
WITH PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE IT FARTHER SW...ACROSS SW VA/SE WV AND UP INTO
THE C LOWLANDS. THIS IS KEY AS TO WHO RECEIVES BEST SHOT OF A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER BLO 1000 FT IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS AXIS WILL
HAVE GOOD LIFT AND RH WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS
SUCH...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL COATING IN
SOME OF THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /PRE DAWN/ SHOULD A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCUR IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE
WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH CONSENSUS
RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. HAVE A COUPLE INCHES
IN ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. USED HPC WWD
GRIDS AS A BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN TWEAKING DOWN BASED ON
OUR FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS...INCORPORATING SOME RAW NAM/GFS
NUMBERS. THIS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BETWEEN VALLEY AND
HILLTOPS.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 3000
FT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STILL SET AT MEDIUM...DUE TO QUESTIONS OF FORMATION AND
COVERAGE OF THE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO
12Z.  THINKING PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THICK FOG FOR
CRW...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR SINCE CLOUDS COULD EASILY BECOME
JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN.

OTHERWISE...JUST 3 TO 5 THSD FT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH
PERIOD...EXCEPT 2 THSD FT AGL OVER HIGHER RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING IN RAIN...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 292237
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
623 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL BE SLOWER IN BRINGING BACK THE COLD AIR ADVECTED STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  ALSO ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS AROUND THE HTS TRI
STATE...INCLUDING NE KY.  THOUGH WE THINK PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE SEEN THERE LATE TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE
THE MOST VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN WV 06Z TO 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOWS OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV
MOUNTAINS/SW VA/ AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS IN S COAL FIELDS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC FRI NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AND LOW BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW BY 03Z IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS IN NE KY...C AND S
WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO
AREAS TOWARD DAWN. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND
PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW.

SAT MORNING...NAM/ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE CMC DIFFER FROM GFS
WITH PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE IT FARTHER SW...ACROSS SW VA/SE WV AND UP INTO
THE C LOWLANDS. THIS IS KEY AS TO WHO RECEIVES BEST SHOT OF A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER BLO 1000 FT IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS AXIS WILL
HAVE GOOD LIFT AND RH WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS
SUCH...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL COATING IN
SOME OF THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /PRE DAWN/ SHOULD A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCUR IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE
WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH CONSENSUS
RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. HAVE A COUPLE INCHES
IN ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. USED HPC WWD
GRIDS AS A BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN TWEAKING DOWN BASED ON
OUR FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS...INCORPORATING SOME RAW NAM/GFS
NUMBERS. THIS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BETWEEN VALLEY AND
HILLTOPS.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 3000
FT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STILL SET AT MEDIUM...DUE TO QUESTIONS OF FORMATION AND
COVERAGE OF THE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO
12Z.  THINKING PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THICK FOG FOR
CRW...BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR SINCE CLOUDS COULD EASILY BECOME
JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN.

OTHERWISE...JUST 3 TO 5 THSD FT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH
PERIOD...EXCEPT 2 THSD FT AGL OVER HIGHER RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING IN RAIN...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KCLE 292217
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PRECIP MENTION BACK TO THE WEST A LITTLE AND GONE WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED WORDING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY CONDITION AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...A SURFACE AND UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE OMEGA IS
LIMITED. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR
16C. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM CLE EAST AND WITH
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS EARLY AND THEN CHANCE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SPRINKLES EARLY FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND. THE CLOUD FORECAST
IS TOUGH FOR NW OHIO. WENT WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS BUT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO IT MAY END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH 23Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH AND
INCLUDED A WINDOW OF -SHRA AT ERI FROM 00-05Z. CAN NOT RULE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TOL OR CLE BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT AND BRIEF NATURE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. WESTERN SITES WILL TRY TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 AM BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR A
PORTION OF THE LAKE AS WAVES SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
541 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT IS FINALLY TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY EXTREMELY DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE DRY SLOT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DID DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW THE MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT...HOWEVER SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING THIS CUMULUS IS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE SUN SETS. AS SUCH...SOME AREAS MAY HAVE
A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE MORE COHERENT CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FINALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP ENOUGH
SATURATION COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE
RIDGES OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A
BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 292020
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KRLX 292013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
413 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS...WITH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S...50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOWS OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR THE WV
MOUNTAINS/SW VA/ AND PERHAPS HILLTOPS IN S COAL FIELDS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC FRI NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A BIT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AND LOW BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW BY 03Z IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS IN NE KY...C AND
S WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO
AREAS TOWARD DAWN. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND
PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SW.

SAT MORNING...NAM/ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE CMC DIFFER FROM GFS
WITH PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE IT FARTHER SW...ACROSS SW VA/SE WV AND UP INTO
THE C LOWLANDS. THIS IS KEY AS TO WHO RECEIVES BEST SHOT OF A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER BLO 1000 FT IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS AXIS WILL
HAVE GOOD LIFT AND RH WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS
SUCH...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL COATING IN
SOME OF THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /PRE DAWN/ SHOULD A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCUR IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE
WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH CONSENSUS
RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. HAVE A COUPLE INCHES
IN ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE C AND N WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. USED HPC WWD
GRIDS AS A BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN TWEAKING DOWN BASED ON
OUR FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS...INCORPORATING SOME RAW NAM/GFS
NUMBERS. THIS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BETWEEN VALLEY AND
HILLTOPS.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 3000
FT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS RAPIDLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DAWN
SUNDAY. STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE ALL THIS ABOVE IS HAPPENING...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING IT EAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES.  HOWEVER...FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 08Z LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.  EKN WILL DROP TO IFR BY 09Z AND REMAIN THERE
UNTIL 13Z THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
FOG DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...LS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 291956
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE AND UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE OMEGA IS
LIMITED. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR
16C. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM CLE EAST AND WITH THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
EARLY AND THEN CHANCE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SPRINKLES EARLY FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS
TOUGH FOR NW OHIO. WENT WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS BUT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO IT MAY END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH 23Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH AND
INCLUDED A WINDOW OF -SHRA AT ERI FROM 00-05Z. CAN NOT RULE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TOL OR CLE BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT AND BRIEF NATURE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. WESTERN SITES WILL TRY TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 AM BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR A
PORTION OF THE LAKE AS WAVES SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291844
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE GT LKS RGN TNGT WITH AN INCR
IN SC EXPD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS WERE
MAINTAINED N OF I 80 WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME VRY LTD LK
ENHANCEMENT PSBL. NR AVG OVRNGT LOWS ARE EXPD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WL BE PREDOMINATE TDA...BUT AN ADVNG UPR
DISTURBANCE/REINFORCING CDFNT WL INVIGORATE STRATOCU DVLPMNT
THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH GENL MVFR RESTRICTIONS TNGT AS COLD BNDRY
LYR FLOW VEERS TO THE NW. THE ASSOCIATED MID LVL THERMAL TROF
PROJECTIONS ARE COLDER IN THE LATEST MDL SOLNS...HENCE THE MIXING
LYR NR NRN PORTS LATE TNGT LKS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME SHWRS...SO
A VICINITY MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR FKL AND DUJ IN THE AFTN TAF
PACKAGE.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE RELATIVE MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW OFF THE LAKES...IFR
CIG DVLPMNT WAS ALSO INCLUDED FOR THOSE SITES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINING AN END
TO THE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS...WITH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S...50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF
THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT.

THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N
CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING
ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA.  SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS.

THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD.  THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN
TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY
BY FRI.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH
PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.

SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE
SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD
THROUGH INDIANA.  THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E
COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/.
THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP.

EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
POPS FRI NT AND SAT.  ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING
IN THE DETAILS.

HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR
TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE
COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT.  ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT.  THIS
WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS
EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF
WV...COME SAT MORNING.

THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER
WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES.  HOWEVER...FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 08Z LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.  EKN WILL DROP TO IFR BY 09Z AND REMAIN THERE
UNTIL 13Z THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
FOG DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...LS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 291751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF
ASHTABULA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS BEST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH 23Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH AND
INCLUDED A WINDOW OF -SHRA AT ERI FROM 00-05Z. CAN NOT RULE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TOL OR CLE BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT AND BRIEF NATURE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. WESTERN SITES WILL TRY TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KEC/MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KILN 291743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY REACHED THEIR PEAK IN THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THERE COULD BE STILL BE A FEW DEGREE RISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291636
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1236 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF
ASHTABULA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS BEST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CEILINGS WILL RETURN
AND DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO
AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA...MAINLY EAST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE.
BEST CHANCES OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AT KERI BUT HAVE
ALSO PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER FOR KCLE...KCAK AND KYNG. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291636
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1236 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF
ASHTABULA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS BEST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CEILINGS WILL RETURN
AND DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO
AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA...MAINLY EAST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE.
BEST CHANCES OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AT KERI BUT HAVE
ALSO PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER FOR KCLE...KCAK AND KYNG. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291517
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1117 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ON THURSDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OLD BELOW...
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD WITH A 5H TROUGH FOLLOWING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC
GRADIENTS WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  NOT MUCH FLOW THERE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AND LEFT
SOME SKY COVER IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT UPSWING IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  NOT MUCH DYNAMICS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH
PRECIPITATION THOUGH. AS CAA TAKES PLACE WITH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING
IN WE SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 60S IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF
THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT.

THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N
CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING
ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA.  SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS.

THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD.  THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN
TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY
BY FRI.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH
PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.

SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE
SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD
THROUGH INDIANA.  THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E
COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/.
THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP.

EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
POPS FRI NT AND SAT.  ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING
IN THE DETAILS.

HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR
TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE
COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT.  ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT.  THIS
WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS
EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF
WV...COME SAT MORNING.

THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER
WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR ALL BUT THE MOST EASTERN SITES. THIS
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...ENDING FOR
ALL SITES BY AROUND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION AND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS DRY AIR MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES...WITH SOME
MVFR LINGERING AT CKB UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 17Z.

OLD BELOW...
FRONT HAS EXITED EASTERN WEST VIRGINA...WITH ASSOCIATED BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. KEPT LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE SRN COAL FIELDS AND MOUNTAIN SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z.

GRADIENTS WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC FLOW BECOMING
LIGHTER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL AND WEAK FLOW...THE BL SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DECOUPLING
TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED MVFR AND IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR
MOUNTAIN SITES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING
FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC/LS
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC/LS









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291451
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1051 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RMNG POST FRONTAL SHWRS SE OF PIT SHOULD BY ERLY AFTN. OTRW EXP A
GRDL DCR IN CLD COVER ERLY THIS AFTN...THOUGH SC IS EXPD TO DVLP
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE GT LKS
RGN TNGT WITH AN INCR IN SC. LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS WERE MAINTAINED N
OF I 80 WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME VRY LTD LK ENHANCEMENT PSBL.
NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI INTO THE WKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND CDFNT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THIS WL BRING INCRG SHWR CHCS
FRI. THE DEEPENING TROF AND MOISTURE SWATH ACRS THE AREA IS EXPD
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS EWD.
COLD ADVCTN BEHIND THE LOW COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHWR
MIX...OR A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MARGINAL HOWEVER.
THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD SAT EVE WITH DCRG
PCPN CHCS.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND 10-15
DEG BLO AVG SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES FRONT WL MAINTAIN VFR TDA...BUT
PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO VEER THE WIND TO THE
NW TNGT...WITH COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES FUELING MVFR STRATOCU
DVLPMNT FOR MOST TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL
SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 291433
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DEPARTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN INDIANA TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO EARLIEST AND BE MOST EXTENSIVE THERE...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN THERE.
ELSEWHERE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1006 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DELAYED THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
LARGE BREAK BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELDS...THE ONE OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THE ONE ENTERING NW OH. MINOR CHANGES TO THE HIGHS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT.  A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA.  SHOULD GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH
THE 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -3C BY THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY A 17C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CEILINGS WILL RETURN
AND DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO
AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA...MAINLY EAST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE.
BEST CHANCES OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AT KERI BUT HAVE
ALSO PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER FOR KCLE...KCAK AND KYNG. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291224
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
824 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST FRONTAL SHWRS SE OF PIT SHOULD END LTR THIS MRNG. OTRW EXP A
GRDL DCR IN CLD COVER ERLY TDA...THOUGH SC IS EXPD TO DVLP THRU
THE AFTN WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
GT LKS RGN TNGT WITH AN INCR IN SC. LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS WERE
MAINTAINED N OF I 80 WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME VRY LTD LK
ENHANCEMENT PSBL. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI INTO THE WKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND CDFNT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THIS WL BRING INCRG SHWR CHCS
FRI. THE DEEPENING TROF AND MOISTURE SWATH ACRS THE AREA IS EXPD
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS EWD.
COLD ADVCTN BEHIND THE LOW COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHWR
MIX...OR A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MARGINAL HOWEVER.
THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD SAT EVE WITH DCRG
PCPN CHCS.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND 10-15
DEG BLO AVG SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES FRONT WL MAINTAIN VFR TDA...BUT
PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO VEER THE WIND TO THE
NW TNGT...WITH COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES FUELING MVFR STRATOCU
DVLPMNT FOR MOST TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL
SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15







000
FXUS61 KCLE 291128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT.  A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA.  SHOULD GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH
THE 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -3C BY THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY A 17C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CEILINGS WILL RETURN
AND DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO
AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA...MAINLY EAST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE.
BEST CHANCES OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AT KERI BUT HAVE
ALSO PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER FOR KCLE...KCAK AND KYNG. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KILN 291054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. A WEDGE OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEHIND THE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND AHEAD
OF ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ADDITION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH AROUND 875MB-850MB. AS THIS MIXING
OCCURS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WNW
FLOW...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT A TEN-DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ON THURSDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD WITH A 5H TROUGH FOLLOWING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC
GRADIENTS WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  NOT MUCH FLOW THERE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AND LEFT
SOME SKY COVER IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT UPSWING IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  NOT MUCH DYNAMICS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH
PRECIPITATION THOUGH. AS CAA TAKES PLACE WITH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING
IN WE SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 60S IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF
THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT.

THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N
CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING
ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA.  SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS.

THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD.  THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN
TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY
BY FRI.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH
PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.

SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE
SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD
THROUGH INDIANA.  THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E
COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/.
THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP.

EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
POPS FRI NT AND SAT.  ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING
IN THE DETAILS.

HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR
TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE
COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT.  ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT.  THIS
WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS
EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF
WV...COME SAT MORNING.

THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER
WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT HAS EXITED EASTERN WEST VIRGINA...WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. KEPT LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE SRN COAL FIELDS AND MOUNTAIN SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z.

GRADIENTS WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC FLOW BECOMING
LIGHTER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL AND WEAK FLOW...THE BL SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DECOUPLING
TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED MVFR AND IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR
MOUNTAIN SITES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING
FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ON THURSDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD WITH A 5H TROUGH FOLLOWING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC
GRADIENTS WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  NOT MUCH FLOW THERE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AND LEFT
SOME SKY COVER IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT UPSWING IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  NOT MUCH DYNAMICS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH
PRECIPITATION THOUGH. AS CAA TAKES PLACE WITH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING
IN WE SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 60S IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF
THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT.

THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N
CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING
ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA.  SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS.

THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD.  THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN
TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY
BY FRI.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH
PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.

SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE
SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD
THROUGH INDIANA.  THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E
COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/.
THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP.

EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
POPS FRI NT AND SAT.  ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING
IN THE DETAILS.

HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR
TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE
COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT.  ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT.  THIS
WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS
EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF
WV...COME SAT MORNING.

THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER
WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT HAS EXITED EASTERN WEST VIRGINA...WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. KEPT LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE SRN COAL FIELDS AND MOUNTAIN SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z.

GRADIENTS WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC FLOW BECOMING
LIGHTER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL AND WEAK FLOW...THE BL SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DECOUPLING
TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED MVFR AND IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR
MOUNTAIN SITES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING
FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 291004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
604 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FOR 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT.  A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA.  SHOULD GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH
THE 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -3C BY THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY A 17C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND
NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THIS SHOULD ONLY
CAUSES MINOR ISSUES AT KERI. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OFF OF LAKE ERIE ARE UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NE OH/NW PA. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.  A POTENT SYSTEM WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR...AND SOME SNOWFLAKES...BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE RIDGES THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT OVERALL A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROF AXIS FINALLY PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MORNING.

DRY SLOT DOES ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY
BEFORE LLVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN GIVING RISE TO A CU FIELD IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...KEEPING ANY LAKE INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

BY 00Z THURS...THE H7 TROF AXIS REACHES THE SERN WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...VEERING THE LLVL FLOW TO WNW. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD POOL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
ERIE WATERS WILL ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80
THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING. TEMPS EARLY THURS WILL BE HELD
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
AREA...LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MUCH
CLOSER TO OUR AVG. THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS AHEAD OF A FLAT
RIDGE.  DISTURBANCE IS MOISTURE-STARVED...BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-80
MAY HANG ON TO A FEW SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z THU. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLAKE OR TWO MIXING IN...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS WARM
ENOUGH TO MELT MOST HYDROMETEORS.  DRY WEATHER HOLDS ON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.   TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHAT FOLLOWS WILL BRING THE FIRST REAL CHANCE THIS SEASON OF SEEING
SNOWFLAKES FOR MANY IN THE CWA.  A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
START TO DIG ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIVE
SOUTHWARD.  IT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  NORMALIZED
ANOMALIES FROM PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR GEFS/NAEFS SHOW H500
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
NOT SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO SETTLE ON THE DETAILS.  STILL...THERE IS REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES COME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH AT
LEAST SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...OUR FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...PUSHING BETTER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.  MIDLEVEL RIPPLES IN THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH...PLUS MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE
ON FRIDAY.  COLD FROPA WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES FURTHER BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

EXPECTING A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY..WITH LIKELY POPS HANGING ALONG THE RIDGES THE
LONGEST.  CONCERNING SNOW...WHILE H850 TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C WILL BE
IN PLACE FRIDAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE
SNOW.  MODELS SHOW WARM AIR WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE
SYSTEM...WITH H850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO CURLING BACK AROUND AND
ENTERING THE CWA ON EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSLOPING MAY PLAY A ROLE AS WELL.  THUS...CANNOT REMOVE RAIN
ENTIRELY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80.  LOW CONFIDENCE VALUES THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR NOW...BUT MORE
COULD FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY
WRAP UP BY 00Z SUNDAY.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT NOW EAST OF THE CWA...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE REGION AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE
SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY WRN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPS NEAR MIDDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY
AROUND 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH...LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DROP CIGS AT FKL INTO MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 290910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. A WEDGE OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEHIND THE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND AHEAD
OF ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ADDITION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH AROUND 875MB-850MB. AS THIS MIXING
OCCURS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WNW
FLOW...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT A TEN-DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY.

FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
442 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ON THURSDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD WITH A 5H TROUGH FOLLOWING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC
GRADIENTS WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  NOT MUCH FLOW THERE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AND LEFT
SOME SKY COVER IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT UPSWING IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  NOT MUCH DYNAMICS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH
PRECIPITATION THOUGH. AS CAA TAKES PLACE WITH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING
IN WE SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 60S IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF
THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT.

THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N
CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING
ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA.  SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS.

THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD.  THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN
TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY
BY FRI.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH
PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.

SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE
SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD
THROUGH INDIANA.  THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E
COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/.
THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP.

EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
POPS FRI NT AND SAT.  ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING
IN THE DETAILS.

HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR
TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE
COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT.  ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT.  THIS
WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS
EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF
WV...COME SAT MORNING.

THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER
WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FRONT NEAR KCKB-KBKW NEAR 06Z WITH LOCAL LIFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS FRM CENTRAL WV TO POINTS EAST AND SOUTH.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH
SLOWER IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COALFIELDS. WILL HOLD ONTO
LOW CLOUDS FROM KCRW-KBKW TO KEKN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS FRONT HANGS FOR A BIT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO
15Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY.  MAY BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.  IFR IN
STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC







000
FXUS61 KILN 290831
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. A WEDGE OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEHIND THE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND AHEAD
OF ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ADDITION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH AROUND 875MB-850MB. AS THIS MIXING
OCCURS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WNW
FLOW...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT A TEN-DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION.

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY.

FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
421 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.  A POTENT SYSTEM WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR...AND SOME SNOWFLAKES...BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT IS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED OFF DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE SFC
FRONT BEING THROUGH...THE MID-LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FINALLY CLEAR THE SERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECTING A FEW WEAK WAVES TO PASS SW TO NE ALONG THE
MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-MORNING. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR
NEAR THE SFC...CURRENTLY SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING UP ON MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY SOUTH OF MORGANTOWN AND SE THROUGH TUCKER CO WV.
WHILE MUCH OF THE ENHANCEMENT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO BRIGHT-BANDING
NEAR THE MELTING LAYER...RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS A
HANDFUL OF OBS IN THAT REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE THROUGH MID-MORNING. MID-
LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA
BY MIDDAY.

DRY SLOT DOES ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY
BEFORE LLVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN GIVING RISE TO A CU FIELD IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...KEEPING ANY LAKE INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

BY 00Z THURS...THE H7 TROF AXIS REACHES THE SERN WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...VEERING THE LLVL FLOW TO WNW. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD POOL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
ERIE WATERS WILL ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80
THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING. TEMPS EARLY THURS WILL BE HELD
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
AREA...LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MUCH
CLOSER TO OUR AVG. THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS AHEAD OF A FLAT
RIDGE.  DISTURBANCE IS MOISTURE-STARVED...BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-80
MAY HANG ON TO A FEW SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z THU. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLAKE OR TWO MIXING IN...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS WARM
ENOUGH TO MELT MOST HYDROMETEORS.  DRY WEATHER HOLDS ON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.   TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHAT FOLLOWS WILL BRING THE FIRST REAL CHANCE THIS SEASON OF SEEING
SNOWFLAKES FOR MANY IN THE CWA.  A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
START TO DIG ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIVE
SOUTHWARD.  IT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  NORMALIZED
ANOMALIES FROM PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR GEFS/NAEFS SHOW H500
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
NOT SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO SETTLE ON THE DETAILS.  STILL...THERE IS REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES COME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH AT
LEAST SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...OUR FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...PUSHING BETTER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.  MIDLEVEL RIPPLES IN THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH...PLUS MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE
ON FRIDAY.  COLD FROPA WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES FURTHER BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

EXPECTING A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY..WITH LIKELY POPS HANGING ALONG THE RIDGES THE
LONGEST.  CONCERNING SNOW...WHILE H850 TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C WILL BE
IN PLACE FRIDAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE
SNOW.  MODELS SHOW WARM AIR WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE
SYSTEM...WITH H850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO CURLING BACK AROUND AND
ENTERING THE CWA ON EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSLOPING MAY PLAY A ROLE AS WELL.  THUS...CANNOT REMOVE RAIN
ENTIRELY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80.  LOW CONFIDENCE VALUES THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR NOW...BUT MORE
COULD FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY
WRAP UP BY 00Z SUNDAY.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR SHRA INTO KMGW. WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING EAST OF MOST PORTS...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER A
MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY WRN
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPS NEAR
MIDDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY AROUND 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCLE 290802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT.  A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA.  SHOULD GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH
THE 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -3C BY THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY A 17C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND
NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THIS SHOULD ONLY
CAUSES MINOR ISSUES AT KERI. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OFF OF LAKE ERIE ARE UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NE OH/NW PA. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT IS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS SEEN IN THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT GRADIENT AS WE SIT IN THE LOW 60S EXTREME EAST TO LOW 40S
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE SFC FRONT BEING THROUGH...THE MID-LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FINALLY CLEAR
THE SERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING A FEW MORE WEAK WAVES
TO PASS SW TO NE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN THE TRENDS AS RADAR ECHOES HAVE
FILLED BACK IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS FAR WEST AS THE OHIO RIVER. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE ACTUALLY DELAYED THE OVERALL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...KEEPING CHC POPS IN THE RIDGES UNTIL AROUND 15Z. MID-
LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA
BY MIDDAY.

DRY SLOT DOES ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY
BEFORE LLVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN GIVING RISE TO A CU FIELD IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...KEEPING ANY LAKE INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

BY 00Z THURS...THE H7 TROF AXIS REACHES THE SERN WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...VEERING THE LLVL FLOW TO WNW. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD POOL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
ERIE WATERS WILL ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80
THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL
CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N
OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT
FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF
DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD
FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD
AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR SHRA INTO KMGW. WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING EAST OF MOST PORTS...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER A
MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY WRN
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPS NEAR
MIDDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY AROUND 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KILN 290545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER LS TO PIVOT NE INTO SRN CANADA TO PSN NR
JAMES BAY BY SUNRISE WED. SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SE OF ILN/S
FA BUT A VORT SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF ALONG WITH AN
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS ACRS THE SE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING HAVE LINGERED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LONGER AND HELD ONTO CLOUDS A LTL LONGER.
BY 06Z EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE EXITING ALL BUT THE FAR SE AS FAVORABLE
FORCING EXITS THE REGION.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS.
LOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY.

FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR







000
FXUS61 KCLE 290541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM ARE LONG GONE.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS LOOK FINE SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND
18C...SOME SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NW PA WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY AND THEN
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EARLY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ARE NOT AS COLD SO WILL MIX RAIN WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHEAST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 22C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME
CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE
EAST...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND ANOTHER DAY IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BUILD OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. INTRODUCED THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND
NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THIS SHOULD ONLY
CAUSES MINOR ISSUES AT KERI. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OFF OF LAKE ERIE ARE UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NE OH/NW PA. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OHIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF AVON AS WAVES ARE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290534
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 01Z HAVE FRONT NEAR CKB TO CRW. OUR 925 MB VAD WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO VEER INTO THE WEST.  STILL HAVE FRONT REACHING TOWARD
EKN BY 04Z...BUT PROBABLY DELAYED TIL 06Z VCNTY BKW.

IF YOUR RECALL...WE MENTIONED THE RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET DYNAMICS
WITH THIS FRONT...EVEN WHEN IT WAS BACK IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THAT IS CERTAINLY COMING INTO PLAY...WITH SOME RAIN AMOUNTS
OF .5 TO 1.0.  A SIGN OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...AS PCPN INTENSITIES
HAVE VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH DAY VERSUS NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A POST FRONTAL WAVE IS LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT 01Z AND HEADING OUR WAY.  YET...CLOUD TOPS WARMING RECENTLY WITH
THAT FEATURE.

WHILE DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY COMING INTO OUR INTERIOR SE OHIO
COUNTIES...WILL BE SLOWER LOWERING POP FROM HTS-CRW TO EKN WITH THE
KY WAVE.  ALSO SLOWED THE START TIME OF THE SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER
GREENBRIER VALLEY DOWN THRU BKW THIS EVENING.  SO IN
OTHERWORDS...TIGHTENING UP THE POP GRADIENTS.

WE CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  TOUGH CALL ON THE 12Z POP FOR CKB TO CKB. HAVE CKB
JUST ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE 12Z POP GRADIENT...WITH CRW ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE POP GRADIENT FENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET BUT COOL WX REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAA WITH PASSAGE OF
DRY UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT INCREASE IN
STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THERMAL TROF PASSES...THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM W TO E
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE
A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
CATEGORICAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FRONT NEAR KCKB-KBKW NEAR 06Z WITH LOCAL LIFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS FRM CENTRAL WV TO POINTS EAST AND SOUTH.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH
SLOWER IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COALFIELDS. WILL HOLD ONTO
LOW CLOUDS FROM KCRW-KBKW TO KEKN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS FRONT HANGS FOR A BIT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO
15Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY.  MAY BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.  IFR IN
STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND EVEN IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ/30/KMC
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290446
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1246 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT IS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS SEEN IN THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT GRADIENT AS WE SIT IN THE LOW 60S EXTREME EAST TO LOW 40S
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE SFC FRONT BEING THROUGH...THE MID-LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FINALLY CLEAR
THE SERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING A FEW MORE WEAK WAVES
TO PASS SW TO NE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN THE TRENDS AS RADAR ECHOES HAVE
FILLED BACK IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS FAR WEST AS THE OHIO RIVER. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE ACTUALLY DELAYED THE OVERALL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...KEEPING CHC POPS IN THE RIDGES UNTIL AROUND 15Z. MID-
LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA
BY MIDDAY.

DRY SLOT DOES ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY
BEFORE LLVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN GIVING RISE TO A CU FIELD IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...KEEPING ANY LAKE INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

BY 00Z THURS...THE H7 TROF AXIS REACHES THE SERN WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...VEERING THE LLVL FLOW TO WNW. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD POOL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
ERIE WATERS WILL ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80
THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL
CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N
OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT
FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF
DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD
FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD
AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING 1-2
HOURS OF RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS REMAINING.
DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADDITION
TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 290224
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER LS TO PIVOT NE INTO SRN CANADA TO PSN NR
JAMES BAY BY SUNRISE WED. SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SE OF ILN/S
FA BUT A VORT SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF ALONG WITH AN
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS ACRS THE SE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING HAVE LINGERED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LONGER AND HELD ONTO CLOUDS A LTL LONGER.
BY 06Z EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE EXITING ALL BUT THE FAR SE AS FAVORABLE
FORCING EXITS THE REGION.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS.
LOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS WHICH BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING. EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN WEDNESDAY 8H THERMAL TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURG AFTN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP. HAVE
KEPT THESE CIGS VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FEET.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN 10 TO 15 KTS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SCREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS TIME...NOW MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH. WINDS QUICKLY
ARE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT AND GUSTING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES UPON ITS PASSAGE.
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA AND
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE UPON
ARRIVAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL
CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N
OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT
FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF
DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD
FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD
AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING 1-2
HOURS OF RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS REMAINING.
DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADDITION
TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 290128
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 01Z HAVE FRONT NEAR CKB TO CRW. OUR 925 MB VAD WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO VEER INTO THE WEST.  STILL HAVE FRONT REACHING TOWARD
EKN BY 04Z...BUT PROBABLY DELAYED TIL 06Z VCNTY BKW.

IF YOUR RECALL...WE MENTIONED THE RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET DYNAMICS
WITH THIS FRONT...EVEN WHEN IT WAS BACK IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THAT IS CERTAINLY COMING INTO PLAY...WITH SOME RAIN AMOUNTS
OF .5 TO 1.0.  A SIGN OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...AS PCPN INTENSITIES
HAVE VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH DAY VERSUS NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A POST FRONTAL WAVE IS LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT 01Z AND HEADING OUR WAY.  YET...CLOUD TOPS WARMING RECENTLY WITH
THAT FEATURE.

WHILE DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY COMING INTO OUR INTERIOR SE OHIO
COUNTIES...WILL BE SLOWER LOWERING POP FROM HTS-CRW TO EKN WITH THE
KY WAVE.  ALSO SLOWED THE START TIME OF THE SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER
GREENBRIER VALLEY DOWN THRU BKW THIS EVENING.  SO IN
OTHERWORDS...TIGHTENING UP THE POP GRADIENTS.

WE CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  TOUGH CALL ON THE 12Z POP FOR CKB TO CKB. HAVE CKB
JUST ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE 12Z POP GRADIENT...WITH CRW ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE POP GRADIENT FENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET BUT COOL WX REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAA WITH PASSAGE OF
DRY UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT INCREASE IN
STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THERMAL TROF PASSES...THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM W TO E
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE
A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
CATEGORICAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FRONT NEAR UNI-HTS-JKL NEAR 23Z.  HAVE FRONT CRW VCNTY
BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z AND EKN-BKW VCNTY 04Z.  COULD STILL BE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES ALONG THE FRONT.

WILL BE A BIT FASTER IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT SLOWER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTH...SAY BKW ON SOUTH.  WITH MEAN 500
MB TROF TO OUR WEST...SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OR RAIN FIGURED TO
LINGER THROUGH 12Z IN OUR EXTREME SOUTH.

LOWEST CEILINGS ARE JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
WESTERN LOWLANDS...BUT FIGURING THESE POST FRONTAL LOWER CEILINGS
WILL LAST LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW VCNTY.

HAVE CEILINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 2 THSD ACROSS WESTERN LOWLANDS JUST
BEHIND FRONT...BEFORE IMPROVING...WHILE POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS DROP INTO THE 1 TO 2 THSD FT RANGE.  VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES
IN THE FRONT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM.  SOME 4 TO 5 MILES IN
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH 06Z TO 12Z.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO 15Z...WITH
MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 3 TO 6 THSD FT AREA WIDE DURING THE 15Z TO
18Z PERIOD.  IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...CEILINGS FORMING AROUND
3 TO 5 THSD FT FROM NW TO SE 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY.  MAY BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 10/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.  IFR IN
STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND EVEN IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KCLE 290115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM ARE LONG GONE.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS LOOK FINE SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND
18C...SOME SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NW PA WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY AND THEN
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EARLY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ARE NOT AS COLD SO WILL MIX RAIN WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHEAST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 22C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME
CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE
EAST...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND ANOTHER DAY IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BUILD OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. INTRODUCED THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED TS PRESSING EAST OUT OF OHIO.
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ITS WAKE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS 12KTS OR LESS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL FILL BACK. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAY GUST NEAR
20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR LAKE ERIE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NE OH/NW PA.
WIDESPREAD NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OHIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF AVON AS WAVES ARE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KILN 290035
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
835 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS WELL. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS WELL ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS WHICH BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING. EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN WEDNESDAY 8H THERMAL TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURG AFTN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP. HAVE
KEPT THESE CIGS VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FEET.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN 10 TO 15 KTS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290010
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO...HAVING
PASSED ZANESVILLE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. A FAIRLY COHERENT LINE OF
SHOWERS IS EVIDENT ALONG IT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS FAIRLY
FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...HOWEVER STRONG
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. AS SUCH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SUGGEST
AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT...WHICH
REALLY SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE FADED WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT SLIGHT CHANCES WERE LEFT ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF FOR JUST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS TO ALLOW FOR THE EVER-
SHRINKING CHANCE OF A ONE-STRIKE-WONDER. THAT SAID...STRONG LAPSE
RATES BELOW 5 KFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THE LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT LOOKS SET TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT CLEARING OVER
MANY AREAS AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW NEVER TURNS NORTHWESTERLY.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL
CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N
OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT
FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF
DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD
FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD
AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING 1-2
HOURS OF RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS REMAINING.
DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADDITION
TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAS NOW MOVED INTO NE AND EXPECT ALL OF
THE PRECIP TO BE GONE BY 00Z. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING...SOME COULD BE STRONG MAINLY EAST OF AKRON
THROUGH 7 PM. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS COULD LINGER EAST OF CLE ALL NIGHT
BECAUSE WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER 10C...ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND
18C...SOME SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NW PA WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY AND THEN
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EARLY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ARE NOT AS COLD SO WILL MIX RAIN WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHEAST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 22C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME
CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE
EAST...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND ANOTHER DAY IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BUILD OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. INTRODUCED THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED TS PRESSING EAST OUT OF OHIO.
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ITS WAKE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS 12KTS OR LESS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL FILL BACK. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAY GUST NEAR
20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR LAKE ERIE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NE OH/NW PA.
WIDESPREAD NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OHIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF AVON AS WAVES ARE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 282311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO DOWN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS
AFFECTING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM. THIS ALSO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDER DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S LOWLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET BUT COOL WX REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAA WITH PASSAGE OF
DRY UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT INCREASE IN
STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THERMAL TROF PASSES...THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM W TO E
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE
A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
CATEGORICAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FRONT NEAR UNI-HTS-JKL NEAR 23Z.  HAVE FRONT CRW VCNTY BETWEEN 01
AND 02Z AND EKN-BKW VCNTY 04Z.  COULD STILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES
ALONG THE FRONT.

WILL BE A BIT FASTER IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT SLOWER IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN OUR EXTREME SOUTH...SAY BKW ON SOUTH.  WITH MEAN 500 MB TROF TO OUR
WEST...SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OR RAIN FIGURED TO LINGER THROUGH 12Z
IN OUR EXTREME SOUTH.

LOWEST CEILINGS ARE JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
WESTERN LOWLANDS...BUT FIGURING THESE POST FRONTAL LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LAST LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW VCNTY.

HAVE CEILINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 2 THSD ACROSS WESTERN LOWLANDS JUST
BEHIND FRONT...BEFORE IMPROVING...WHILE POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS DROP INTO THE 1 TO 2 THSD FT RANGE.  VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES IN THE
FRONT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM.  SOME 4 TO 5 MILES IN POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH 06Z TO 12Z.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO 15Z...WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS 3 TO 6 THSD FT AREA WIDE DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD.  IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...CEILINGS FORMING AROUND 3 TO 5 THSD FT
FROM NW TO SE 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY.  MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.  IFR IN
STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND EVEN IN SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282250
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO...HAVING
PASSED ZANESVILLE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. A FAIRLY COHERENT LINE OF
SHOWERS IS EVIDENT ALONG IT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS FAIRLY
FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...HOWEVER STRONG
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. AS SUCH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SUGGEST
AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT...WHICH
REALLY SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE FADED WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT SLIGHT CHANCES WERE LEFT ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF FOR JUST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS TO ALLOW FOR THE EVER-
SHRINKING CHANCE OF A ONE-STRIKE-WONDER. THAT SAID...STRONG LAPSE
RATES BELOW 5 KFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THE LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT LOOKS SET TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT CLEARING OVER
MANY AREAS AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW NEVER TURNS NORTHWESTERLY.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL
CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N
OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT
FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF
DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD
FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD
AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC WIND WL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN INTO THE AFTN AS GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVR THE WRN LAKES.
THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT WL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO MVFR IN
SHWRS...LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. VFR WL QUICKLY RESUME LTR
THIS EVE IN THE DRY WLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 282221
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
621 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAS NOW MOVED INTO NE AND EXPECT ALL OF
THE PRECIP TO BE GONE BY 00Z. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING...SOME COULD BE STRONG MAINLY EAST OF AKRON
THROUGH 7 PM. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS COULD LINGER EAST OF CLE ALL NIGHT
BECAUSE WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER 10C...ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND
18C...SOME SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NW PA WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY AND THEN
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EARLY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ARE NOT AS COLD SO WILL MIX RAIN WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHEAST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 22C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME
CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE
EAST...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND ANOTHER DAY IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BUILD OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. INTRODUCED THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH LOCATION WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VISBY IN MODERATE SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT CAK/YNG/ERI SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS. A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS WILL LOSE THE
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL FILL BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OHIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF AVON AS WAVES ARE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KILN 282100
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS WELL. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS WELL ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL END AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TIME
WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR WITH CLEARING THEN WORKING IN AFTER 00Z. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE SOME GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT SO MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND
COULD BECOME GUSTY. IN ADDITION STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...SOME COULD BE STRONG MAINLY EAST OF AKRON THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS COULD LINGER EAST OF CLE ALL NIGHT BECAUSE
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE OVER 10C...ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND
18C...SOME SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NW PA WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY AND THEN
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EARLY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ARE NOT AS COLD SO WILL MIX RAIN WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHEAST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 22C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME
CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE
EAST...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND ANOTHER DAY IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BUILD OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. INTRODUCED THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH LOCATION WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VISBY IN MODERATE SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT CAK/YNG/ERI SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS. A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS WILL LOSE THE
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL FILL BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OHIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF AVON AS WAVES ARE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO DOWN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS
AFFECTING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM. THIS ALSO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDER DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S LOWLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET BUT COOL WX REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAA WITH PASSAGE OF
DRY UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT INCREASE IN
STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THERMAL TROF PASSES...THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM W TO E
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE
A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
CATEGORICAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH
WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS
TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO.

STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT ALONG SDF/ILN/DLZ LINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF
IT ALONG A LEX/FGX LINE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF BOTH
LINES 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS. FIRST LINE TO AFFECT HTS/PKB BTW
20-23Z WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LINE ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT TAF SITES...MAINLY
BETWEEN 22Z-06Z. WINDS WITH THE FRONT AND JUST BEHIND WILL SWITCH
TO NW 10-15KTS AND GUST 20-35KTS BEFORE DYING DOWN BTW 06Z-12Z.
VFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z AND FRONT EXITS AREA BY 18Z WED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH RW/CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN STRATUS AND
LINGERING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.  IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NT INTO SAT...AND EVEN IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRI NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES ACRS ONTARIO WL CONT TO DRIFT NWD AS IT/S ASSOCIATED
CDFNT CROSSES THE GT LKS AND OH VLY RGN THIS EVE. A PD OF SHWRS IS
EXPD INVOF THE FNT. MRNG INSTBY CHARTS/RAOBS AND LATEST MESO DATA
INDICATE LTL SPPRT FOR TSTMS...SO MAINTAINED ONLY SLGT CHCS INTO
THIS EVE. WITH 40-50KT MID LVL WNDS ANY TSTMS THAT DO DVLP COULD
BE GUSTY. SHWRS WL END FM W-E AS THE FNT CROSSES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
AVG FM 5-10 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL
CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N
OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT
FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF
DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD
FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD
AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC WIND WL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN INTO THE AFTN AS GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVR THE WRN LAKES.
THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT WL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO MVFR IN
SHWRS...LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. VFR WL QUICKLY RESUME LTR
THIS EVE IN THE DRY WLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO DOWN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS
AFFECTING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM. THIS ALSO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDER DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S LOWLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF GUSTY
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
FEATURE ACROSS...WITH BAND OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE OH RIVER
BY ABOUT 00Z...AND WORKING ACROSS WV...REACHING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV BY 08Z.

FIGURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SE
OH WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. SWIFT SSW FLOW INVOF AND AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY COULD TRANSLATE TO SFC FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SEVERE
WIND GUSTS...MAINLY OVER SE OH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING..SHOWER WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING SHOULD BE THE MODE OF
OPERATION AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST...PUSHING POPS HIGHER AND
TIGHTENING POP GRADIENT FROM 23Z-08Z. STAYED WITH INHERITED
TEMPS...WHICH WHERE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BC GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON COLD FRONT BEING E OF THE APPALACHIANS COME 12Z
WED.  ANAFRONT / UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME...BUT EXIT QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING
LAYER BREAKS UP SOMEWHAT ON WED BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE N WED NT
BENEATH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THU.  THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES...BUT
ONGOING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS INTRODUCES MID AND HIGH CLOUD AS
QUICKLY AS THE LOWER CLOUD COULD DRY UP.

E COAST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE FRI INTO FRI NT.  SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSES THU NT INTO FRI...AND THEN NRN
STREAM S/W DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NT.  LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFFSHORE FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST ONE HELPS TO
ASSURE LITTLE OR NO INFLOW AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AHEAD OF NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...WHICH CROSSES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING...ALL
HALLOWS EVE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES...FOLLOWED BY THE DIGGING NRN S/W...THE AXIS OF
WHICH CROSSES AROUND 06Z SAT.  SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME CONFINED
TO THE FAVORED NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREA BY SAT MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE SWITCHES TO SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF BEFORE THE COLUMN GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

THERE IS SOME HISTORY IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR THIS PARTICULAR
EVENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHOWN THE
NRN S/W CLOSING OFF OVER OR EVEN SW OF THE AREA AND REMAINING CLOSED
OFF AS IT DRIFTED OFF THE E COAST IN VARIOUS WAYS DEPENDING ON THE
RUN...EVEN LOITERING OVER THE SERN STATES FOR A TIME ON SOME RUNS.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY RETURNED TO CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FRI NT...AND THEN KEEPING IT CLOSED OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF AND THEN UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY COMBINING
WITH ANOTHER S/W TROUGH.  EVEN THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE AREA BRIEFLY FRI NT.

THESE CLOSED OFF SOLNS WOULD DELIVER COLDER AND AND FORCING FARTHER
W WHILE MAKING THE UPSLOPE FLOW MORE CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO SFC
CYCLONE GENERATION NEARER THE AREA.  THIS IN TURN WOULD INTRODUCE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SEASONS FIRST
SNOWFLAKES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FCST.  DID BLEND IN
MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES FRI NT TO BETTER TIME THE COLD ADVECTION
AND THE CHANGEOVER...WHICH TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN IN THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT WITH WPC WITH A FEW CHANGES. SYN OPTICALLY...HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT
PASSES FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT. DID GO WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS THAN
WPC FOR THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -6C TO -8C. THIS WILL
BRING A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE UPSLOPE TYPE IN NW FLOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT ALONG SDF/ILN/DLZ LINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF
IT ALONG A LEX/FGX LINE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF BOTH
LINES 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS. FIRST LINE TO AFFECT HTS/PKB BTW
20-23Z WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LINE ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT TAF SITES...MAINLY
BETWEEN 22Z-06Z. WINDS WITH THE FRONT AND JUST BEHIND WILL SWITCH
TO NW 10-15KTS AND GUST 20-35KTS BEFORE DYING DOWN BTW 06Z-12Z.
VFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z AND FRONT EXITS AREA BY 18Z WED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH RW/CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN STRATUS AND
LINGERING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.  IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NT INTO SAT...AND EVEN IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRI NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CHICAGO TO DALLAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS ABOUT ON SCHEDULE NEAR THE INDIANA AND OHIO LINE AT
NOON. SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. PLENTY OF OMEGA WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS ISN`T REAL UNSTABLE
SO EXPECTING JUST CHANCE OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 71. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS EXCEPT IN THE TOL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 01Z. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THE REGION WILL BE DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL
THEN MONITOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MAINLY BE
DIRECTED INTO WESTERN NY. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE
GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RIDGE INTO THE REGION ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NW PA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF AUTUMN WITH 8H TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MORE DETAILS ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. IT WILL THEN GET COOLER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG
TERM.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW THAN ECMWF...BUT EITHER CASE THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -9C WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS MAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE RAIN TO MIX IN AT SOME LOCATIONS.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT SO END
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME HOWEVER IF
HAD SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY...AS 850MB RIDGE
DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL WARM UP
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRAOED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH LOCATION WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VISBY IN MODERATE SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT CAK/YNG/ERI SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS. A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS WILL LOSE THE
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL FILL BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BY
THIS EVENING AS STRONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...AND TO 5 TO 7 OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE COLDER AIR.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A BRIEF LULL ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KILN 281747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS STILL MEAGER. BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME THUNDER...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE GETTING INTO THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES).
WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL END AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TIME
WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR WITH CLEARING THEN WORKING IN AFTER 00Z. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE SOME GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT SO MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND
COULD BECOME GUSTY. IN ADDITION STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY.  STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED OFF OF MODELS AND RADAR...SPEED UP TIMING OF COLD FRONT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF GUSTY
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
FEATURE ACROSS...WITH BAND OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE OH RIVER
BY ABOUT 00Z...AND WORKING ACROSS WV...REACHING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV BY 08Z.

FIGURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SE
OH WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. SWIFT SSW FLOW INVOF AND AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY COULD TRANSLATE TO SFC FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SEVERE
WIND GUSTS...MAINLY OVER SE OH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING..SHOWER WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING SHOULD BE THE MODE OF
OPERATION AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST...PUSHING POPS HIGHER AND
TIGHTENING POP GRADIENT FROM 23Z-08Z. STAYED WITH INHERITED
TEMPS...WHICH WHERE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BC GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON COLD FRONT BEING E OF THE APPALACHIANS COME 12Z
WED.  ANAFRONT / UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME...BUT EXIT QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING
LAYER BREAKS UP SOMEWHAT ON WED BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE N WED NT
BENEATH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THU.  THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES...BUT
ONGOING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS INTRODUCES MID AND HIGH CLOUD AS
QUICKLY AS THE LOWER CLOUD COULD DRY UP.

E COAST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE FRI INTO FRI NT.  SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSES THU NT INTO FRI...AND THEN NRN
STREAM S/W DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NT.  LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFFSHORE FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST ONE HELPS TO
ASSURE LITTLE OR NO INFLOW AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AHEAD OF NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...WHICH CROSSES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING...ALL
HALLOWS EVE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES...FOLLOWED BY THE DIGGING NRN S/W...THE AXIS OF
WHICH CROSSES AROUND 06Z SAT.  SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME CONFINED
TO THE FAVORED NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREA BY SAT MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE SWITCHES TO SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF BEFORE THE COLUMN GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

THERE IS SOME HISTORY IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR THIS PARTICULAR
EVENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHOWN THE
NRN S/W CLOSING OFF OVER OR EVEN SW OF THE AREA AND REMAINING CLOSED
OFF AS IT DRIFTED OFF THE E COAST IN VARIOUS WAYS DEPENDING ON THE
RUN...EVEN LOITERING OVER THE SERN STATES FOR A TIME ON SOME RUNS.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY RETURNED TO CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FRI NT...AND THEN KEEPING IT CLOSED OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF AND THEN UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY COMBINING
WITH ANOTHER S/W TROUGH.  EVEN THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE AREA BRIEFLY FRI NT.

THESE CLOSED OFF SOLNS WOULD DELIVER COLDER AND AND FORCING FARTHER
W WHILE MAKING THE UPSLOPE FLOW MORE CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO SFC
CYCLONE GENERATION NEARER THE AREA.  THIS IN TURN WOULD INTRODUCE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SEASONS FIRST
SNOWFLAKES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FCST.  DID BLEND IN
MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES FRI NT TO BETTER TIME THE COLD ADVECTION
AND THE CHANGEOVER...WHICH TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN IN THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT WITH WPC WITH A FEW CHANGES. SYN OPTICALLY...HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT
PASSES FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT. DID GO WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS THAN
WPC FOR THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -6C TO -8C. THIS WILL
BRING A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE UPSLOPE TYPE IN NW FLOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT ALONG SDF/ILN/DLZ LINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF
IT ALONG A LEX/FGX LINE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF BOTH
LINES 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS. FIRST LINE TO AFFECT HTS/PKB BTW
20-23Z WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LINE ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT TAF SITES...MAINLY
BETWEEN 22Z-06Z. WINDS WITH THE FRONT AND JUST BEHIND WILL SWITCH
TO NW 10-15KTS AND GUST 20-35KTS BEFORE DYING DOWN BTW 06Z-12Z.
VFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z AND FRONT EXITS AREA BY 18Z WED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH RW/CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN STRATUS AND
LINGERING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.  IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NT INTO SAT...AND EVEN IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRI NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...JS/KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281633
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CHICAGO TO DALLAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS ABOUT ON SCHEDULE NEAR THE INDIANA AND OHIO LINE AT
NOON. SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. PLENTY OF OMEGA WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS ISN`T REAL UNSTABLE
SO EXPECTING JUST CHANCE OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 71. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS EXCEPT IN THE TOL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 01Z. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THE REGION WILL BE DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL
THEN MONITOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MAINLY BE
DIRECTED INTO WESTERN NY. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE
GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RIDGE INTO THE REGION ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NW PA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF AUTUMN WITH 8H TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MORE DETAILS ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. IT WILL THEN GET COOLER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG
TERM.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW THAN ECMWF...BUT EITHER CASE THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -9C WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS MAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE RAIN TO MIX IN AT SOME LOCATIONS.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT SO END
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME HOWEVER IF
HAD SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY...AS 850MB RIDGE
DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL WARM UP
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN INDIANA WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
NEARING THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO NW
OH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...MOVING INTO NE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS EASTERN HALF OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE 2K WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
FEEDING TSRA. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
TSRA...BUT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BY
THIS EVENING AS STRONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...AND TO 5 TO 7 OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE COLDER AIR.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A BRIEF LULL ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281500
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER
TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES ACRS THE UPR GT LKS WL MOVE INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTN AS
IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT ADVNS EWD THRU THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. A PD OF SHWRS WL ACCOMPANY THE FNT. MRNG RAOBS/INSTBY CHARTS
SHOW VRY LTD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITH FROPA...SO MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLGT CHC IN THE FCST. A STG WND FIELD ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
GUSTY WNDS IF ANY TSTMS DO DVLP. OTRW...OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS...SW
WNDS SHOULD INCR AND BCM GUSTY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHD
OF THE APCHG FNT.

IN THE WRM SECTOR AHD OF THE FNT TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 15-20 DEG
ABV SEASONAL LVLS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL
FRONT PASSES. SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENSUING CAA.

STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...RETURNING TEMPS TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

EXPECT SOME SUN WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF
WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PULLING THE MAIN COLD
POOL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT A STRATOCU SHIELD TO
ACCOMPANY THIS COLD AIR ALOFT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. BUT DO
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPS WITH THE COLD AIR
HANGING AROUND AND AN 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM FRIDAY. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR WILL CROSS
THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC WIND WL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN INTO THE AFTN AS GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVR THE WRN LAKES.
THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT WL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO MVFR IN
SHWRS...LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. VFR WL QUICKLY RESUME LTR
THIS EVE IN THE DRY WLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH
A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281439
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1039 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY.  STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED OFF OF MODELS AND RADAR...SPEED UP TIMING OF COLD FRONT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF GUSTY
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
FEATURE ACROSS...WITH BAND OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE OH RIVER
BY ABOUT 00Z...AND WORKING ACROSS WV...REACHING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV BY 08Z.

FIGURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SE
OH WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. SWIFT SSW FLOW INVOF AND AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY COULD TRANSLATE TO SFC FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SEVERE
WIND GUSTS...MAINLY OVER SE OH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING..SHOWER WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING SHOULD BE THE MODE OF
OPERATION AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST...PUSHING POPS HIGHER AND
TIGHTENING POP GRADIENT FROM 23Z-08Z. STAYED WITH INHERITED
TEMPS...WHICH WHERE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BC GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON COLD FRONT BEING E OF THE APPALACHIANS COME 12Z
WED.  ANAFRONT / UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME...BUT EXIT QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING
LAYER BREAKS UP SOMEWHAT ON WED BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE N WED NT
BENEATH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THU.  THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES...BUT
ONGOING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS INTRODUCES MID AND HIGH CLOUD AS
QUICKLY AS THE LOWER CLOUD COULD DRY UP.

E COAST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE FRI INTO FRI NT.  SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSES THU NT INTO FRI...AND THEN NRN
STREAM S/W DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NT.  LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFFSHORE FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST ONE HELPS TO
ASSURE LITTLE OR NO INFLOW AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AHEAD OF NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...WHICH CROSSES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING...ALL
HALLOWS EVE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES...FOLLOWED BY THE DIGGING NRN S/W...THE AXIS OF
WHICH CROSSES AROUND 06Z SAT.  SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME CONFINED
TO THE FAVORED NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREA BY SAT MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE SWITCHES TO SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF BEFORE THE COLUMN GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

THERE IS SOME HISTORY IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR THIS PARTICULAR
EVENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHOWN THE
NRN S/W CLOSING OFF OVER OR EVEN SW OF THE AREA AND REMAINING CLOSED
OFF AS IT DRIFTED OFF THE E COAST IN VARIOUS WAYS DEPENDING ON THE
RUN...EVEN LOITERING OVER THE SERN STATES FOR A TIME ON SOME RUNS.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY RETURNED TO CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FRI NT...AND THEN KEEPING IT CLOSED OFF AS IT MOVES
OFF AND THEN UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY COMBINING
WITH ANOTHER S/W TROUGH.  EVEN THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE AREA BRIEFLY FRI NT.

THESE CLOSED OFF SOLNS WOULD DELIVER COLDER AND AND FORCING FARTHER
W WHILE MAKING THE UPSLOPE FLOW MORE CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO SFC
CYCLONE GENERATION NEARER THE AREA.  THIS IN TURN WOULD INTRODUCE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SEASONS FIRST
SNOWFLAKES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FCST.  DID BLEND IN
MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES FRI NT TO BETTER TIME THE COLD ADVECTION
AND THE CHANGEOVER...WHICH TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN IN THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT WITH WPC WITH A FEW CHANGES. SYN OPTICALLY...HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT
PASSES FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT. DID GO WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS THAN
WPC FOR THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -6C TO -8C. THIS WILL
BRING A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE UPSLOPE TYPE IN NW FLOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON MODELS AND RADAR...ADJUSTED TIMING OF COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE TAFS ARE
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. SFC GRADIENTS
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH INCREASING SSW FLOW...PRODUCING
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 18Z...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST...REACHING HTS-
PKB CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 22Z AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAIN THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDING MVFR IN SHOWERS AND VCTS...THE EXCEPTION BEING PKB WHERE
TSRA WILL BE MENTIONED. CEILINGS LOWERING NEAR FRONT INTO THE 2 TO
3 THSD FT BKN RANGE AS FRONT MOVES THRU. LEFT LOW CIGS WITH MVFR
IN IN PLACE AFTER FROPA WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG OH RIVER BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN STRATUS AND
LINGERING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.  IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NT INTO SAT...AND EVEN IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRI NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...JS/KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS/KMC









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281359
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CHICAGO TO DALLAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS CONTINUING THE THREAT IN THE
EAST MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF TO CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
WEST BASED ON THE RADAR. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT IN THE TOLEDO AREA. OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO
BE EAST OF THE REGION BY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
AIDED BY A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SINCE THIS LINE IS
DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THINKING WE HAVE NUDGED THE
TIMING IN THE GRIDS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER. OTHERWISE MINIMAL
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CHICAGO TO DALLAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH NW OHIO BY LATE
THIS MORNING THEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE PA BORDER BY EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF A
LINE FROM SANDUSKY TO MARION. THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY END UP BEING
THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+ KNOTS IT WOULD NOT TAKE ALL THAT
STRONG OF AN UPDRAFT TO BE ABLE TO BRING SOME OF THE WIND ENERGY
TO THE SURFACE. SO WITH THAT SAID WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL START THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THIS
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKE US
BELIEVE THAT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST TOUCH THE 70S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THESE LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IF THE RAINFALL
CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 01Z. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THE REGION WILL BE DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL
THEN MONITOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MAINLY BE
DIRECTED INTO WESTERN NY. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE
GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RIDGE INTO THE REGION ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NW PA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF AUTUMN WITH 8H TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MORE DETAILS ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. IT WILL THEN GET COOLER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG
TERM.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW THAN ECMWF...BUT EITHER CASE THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -9C WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS MAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE RAIN TO MIX IN AT SOME LOCATIONS.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT SO END
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME HOWEVER IF
HAD SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY...AS 850MB RIDGE
DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL WARM UP
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN INDIANA WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
NEARING THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO NW
OH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...MOVING INTO NE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS EASTERN HALF OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE 2K WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
FEEDING TSRA. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
TSRA...BUT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BY
THIS EVENING AS STRONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...AND TO 5 TO 7 OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE COLDER AIR.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A BRIEF LULL ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







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