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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190626
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENTLY TWO DIFFERENT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED
PRODUCED BY TWO DIFFERENT MODES OF GENERATION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PRODUCED BY SEEDER-FEEDER METHODS WITH MOISTURE FROM ABOUT
500MB-600MB SEEDING THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AT
850MB. THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS ENVIRONMENT RATHER
NICELY AND THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...EVEN
GENERATING QPF. AS THE SW TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH N TO S THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES QUICKLY OUT WHILE DRYING UP. THIS SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SQUASH ANY REMAINING SEEDER-FEEDER GENERATED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THE BL MOISTURE
DEPTH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY AN INJECTION OF UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE
THAT HAS RAISED INVERSION HEIGHTS. LAST NIGHT MODELS WERE INDICATING
A BL TOP TEMP IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS AND GENERATE LIGHT SNOW. THE 00Z SOUNDING
VERIFIED THIS OCCURRENCE WITH 850MB TEMPS RIGHT AT -10C...WHICH WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT SNOW WOULD RESULT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT RAP
BUFR SOUNDINGS...THE -10C ISOTHERM LAYER IS RATHER SMALL SPATIALLY
AT 850MB AND THE SAMPLE TAKE SEEMS MORE LIKE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE
RULE. IN ACTUALITY THE BL TOP TEMP IS CLOSER TO -8C WHICH KEEPS
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID INTO PLAY...THUS THE REPORTS OF FZDZ MIXING IN
WITH LIGHT SNOW. AN ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE AREA DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY THE FZDZ...AND DEPENDING ON THE DRIFT OF THE DOWN-LAKE
MOISTURE...AN EXPANSION SOUTHWARD MAY BE NECESSARY.

HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A FEED OF ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...REACHING THE PITTSBURGH
METRO AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MI-LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. AS IT CONTINUES IT
TREK SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ERODE ALONG WITH
THE DEFORMATION ZONE GETTING WASHED OUT. ATTM...HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE METRO AND AREAS NW TO SE SURROUNDING. WILL SHY
AWAY FROM FZDZ MENTION FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE CWA FOR
YET ANOTHER DAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POTENTIALLY SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DECREASES ALOFT LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN TEMPERATURES NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE POOL BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190626
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENTLY TWO DIFFERENT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED
PRODUCED BY TWO DIFFERENT MODES OF GENERATION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PRODUCED BY SEEDER-FEEDER METHODS WITH MOISTURE FROM ABOUT
500MB-600MB SEEDING THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AT
850MB. THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS ENVIRONMENT RATHER
NICELY AND THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...EVEN
GENERATING QPF. AS THE SW TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH N TO S THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES QUICKLY OUT WHILE DRYING UP. THIS SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SQUASH ANY REMAINING SEEDER-FEEDER GENERATED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THE BL MOISTURE
DEPTH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY AN INJECTION OF UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE
THAT HAS RAISED INVERSION HEIGHTS. LAST NIGHT MODELS WERE INDICATING
A BL TOP TEMP IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS AND GENERATE LIGHT SNOW. THE 00Z SOUNDING
VERIFIED THIS OCCURRENCE WITH 850MB TEMPS RIGHT AT -10C...WHICH WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT SNOW WOULD RESULT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT RAP
BUFR SOUNDINGS...THE -10C ISOTHERM LAYER IS RATHER SMALL SPATIALLY
AT 850MB AND THE SAMPLE TAKE SEEMS MORE LIKE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE
RULE. IN ACTUALITY THE BL TOP TEMP IS CLOSER TO -8C WHICH KEEPS
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID INTO PLAY...THUS THE REPORTS OF FZDZ MIXING IN
WITH LIGHT SNOW. AN ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE AREA DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY THE FZDZ...AND DEPENDING ON THE DRIFT OF THE DOWN-LAKE
MOISTURE...AN EXPANSION SOUTHWARD MAY BE NECESSARY.

HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A FEED OF ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...REACHING THE PITTSBURGH
METRO AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MI-LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. AS IT CONTINUES IT
TREK SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ERODE ALONG WITH
THE DEFORMATION ZONE GETTING WASHED OUT. ATTM...HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE METRO AND AREAS NW TO SE SURROUNDING. WILL SHY
AWAY FROM FZDZ MENTION FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE CWA FOR
YET ANOTHER DAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POTENTIALLY SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DECREASES ALOFT LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN TEMPERATURES NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE POOL BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 190609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KCMH WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 190609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KCMH WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POTENTIALLY SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DECREASES ALOFT LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN TEMPERATURES NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE POOL BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POTENTIALLY SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DECREASES ALOFT LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN TEMPERATURES NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE POOL BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POTENTIALLY SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DECREASES ALOFT LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN TEMPERATURES NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE POOL BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POTENTIALLY SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP DURING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DECREASES ALOFT LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN TEMPERATURES NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE POOL BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 190434
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1134 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT PRIMARILY AFFECTING CLE AND YNG AND OCCASIONALLY CAK AND
ERI. SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH IT. TRACE ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
ALSO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS. SO CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE WHEN DOES FZDZ END AND HOW LONG IFR CIGS LAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. CEILINGS MAY
TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 13Z-15Z
FRI.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK





000
FXUS61 KCLE 190434
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1134 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT PRIMARILY AFFECTING CLE AND YNG AND OCCASIONALLY CAK AND
ERI. SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH IT. TRACE ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
ALSO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS. SO CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE WHEN DOES FZDZ END AND HOW LONG IFR CIGS LAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. CEILINGS MAY
TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 13Z-15Z
FRI.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 190354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT STILL LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS ABOVE ABOUT
THE -8C ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME
TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE I-70 AND
SOUTH CORRIDOR AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY MELTED THEN REFROZE ON
ROADWAYS. LUCKILY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 190244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO AND
NW PA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VARYING INTENSITY. THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES SOME.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHETHER AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

OVER EXTREME NW OH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS BY A
DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK






000
FXUS61 KCLE 190244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO AND
NW PA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VARYING INTENSITY. THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES SOME.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHETHER AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

OVER EXTREME NW OH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS BY A
DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190221
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND A BIT OF ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE
OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. AS SUCH...REALLY NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 190221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 190221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190221
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES." IN
ADDITION...AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA HAVE
STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND A BIT OF ELEVATED MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE
OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION DOES SEEM POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND
TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH
BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR THE NIGHT. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
START TO FALL OFF A BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH
HABIT MAY DETERIORATE BY MORNING. AS SUCH...REALLY NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182354 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 182354 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 182354 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 182354 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK










000
FXUS61 KCLE 182351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KCLE 182351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182333
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES."
WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION DOES SEEM
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH...HOWEVER
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS
ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF
LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS
A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING
LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A
GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE NIGHT. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES START TO FALL OFF A
BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH HABIT MAY DETERIORATE
BY MORNING. AS SUCH...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM PASSES THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182333
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES."
WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION DOES SEEM
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH...HOWEVER
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS
ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF
LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AS
A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING
LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A
GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE NIGHT. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES START TO FALL OFF A
BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH HABIT MAY DETERIORATE
BY MORNING. AS SUCH...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM PASSES THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OF
FKL/DUJ...AND AN ISOLATED IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NORTH
AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND
HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KILN 182324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 182324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182306
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UTTERLY POOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PINHEAD SIZED SNOWFLAKES/GRAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF "FLURRIES."
WITH AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE...SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF SNOW FLURRY ACTION DOES SEEM
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH...HOWEVER
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...AND PLAN DEPICTIONS
ALL GENERALLY REVEAL A QUICK TREND TOWARD ZERO MICROBARS/SEC OF
LAYER NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN 00Z AND 006Z THIS EVENING. AS
A RESULT...WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO MOIST LAYERS...WEAKENING
LIFT ALOFT...AND POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH BELOW...IT WOULD SEEM JUST A
GENERAL EXPANSION IN THE FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE NIGHT. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES START TO FALL OFF A
BIT...SO IT WOULD SEEM EVEN THE POOR GROWTH HABIT MAY DETERIORATE
BY MORNING. AS SUCH...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM PASSES THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW
AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE
BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR
CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KILN 182045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 182045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 182045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 182045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE SW
ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ELEVATED
HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH GRAUPEL. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE SNOWFALL RATES OR
AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE SW
ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ELEVATED
HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH GRAUPEL. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE SNOWFALL RATES OR
AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE SW
ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ELEVATED
HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH GRAUPEL. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE SNOWFALL RATES OR
AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 182044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE SW
ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ELEVATED
HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH GRAUPEL. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE SNOWFALL RATES OR
AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LLVL MSTR BLO A TEMP INVERSION WL CONT TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES
INTO THE EVE. A WK SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE MIDWEST WL CROSS THE RGN
THIS EVE AS WELL. AS MSTR INCRS WITH THE WAVE EXP A PD OF LGT SNW
OR FLURRIES ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN...THOUGH LTL IF ANY ACCUMS ARE
EXPD. SOME LK AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES
COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SML ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH MSTR
DEPTH AND THE CAPPING TEMP INVERSION LMTG THE SNW POTENTIAL. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW
AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE
BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR
CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LLVL MSTR BLO A TEMP INVERSION WL CONT TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES
INTO THE EVE. A WK SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE MIDWEST WL CROSS THE RGN
THIS EVE AS WELL. AS MSTR INCRS WITH THE WAVE EXP A PD OF LGT SNW
OR FLURRIES ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN...THOUGH LTL IF ANY ACCUMS ARE
EXPD. SOME LK AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES
COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SML ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH MSTR
DEPTH AND THE CAPPING TEMP INVERSION LMTG THE SNW POTENTIAL. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS
FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO
BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS
LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL
PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR
ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY.

SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW
AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE
BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR
CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 181938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD ALSO...BUT WITH
THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NO SGFNT ACCUMS ARE EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A
FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW
AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE
BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR
CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCLE 181813
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
113 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KRLX 181801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KILN 181747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181617
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1117 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD ALSO...BUT WITH
THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NO SGFNT ACCUMS ARE EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A
FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TIMES OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
FOG. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR LIGHT
SNOW AND NEAR IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181604
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1104 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TIMES OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
FOG. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR LIGHT
SNOW AND NEAR IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181604
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1104 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TIMES OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
FOG. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR LIGHT
SNOW AND NEAR IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181604
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1104 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TIMES OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
FOG. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR LIGHT
SNOW AND NEAR IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181604
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1104 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TIMES OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
FOG. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR LIGHT
SNOW AND NEAR IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KILN 181521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 181521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 181521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 181521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP SHALLOW INVERSION NEAR 860 MB WHICH IS TOO
LOW TO PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO FOR TODAY WE MAY
GET A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND THE WESTERN SYSTEM
MAY SPREAD A LITTLE SNOW OR VIRGA ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR US 30
LATE IN THE DAY JUST BEFORE SUNSET.

WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM
CLE TO ERI WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP SHALLOW INVERSION NEAR 860 MB WHICH IS TOO
LOW TO PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO FOR TODAY WE MAY
GET A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND THE WESTERN SYSTEM
MAY SPREAD A LITTLE SNOW OR VIRGA ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR US 30
LATE IN THE DAY JUST BEFORE SUNSET.

WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM
CLE TO ERI WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL...BUT
WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NOTHING SGFNT IS EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 181412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER INVERSION CONTINUE FROM BKW ON N-W AT 14Z.
STILL THINKING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN...YIELDING THE MID
CLOUDS ABOVE.  SO STILL HOPING FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUN OR AT LEAST A
BIT BRIGHTER SKY IN THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID CLOUDS
WARMED AS THEY CROSSED SRN WV THIS MORNING.  NEXT IMPULSE SHOULD
INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER THE LOW DECK ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NRN WV TONIGHT.  WILL BE A BIT MORE LIBERAL WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT OVERALL STILL A
TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KILN 181159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 181159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 181159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 181159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE STAGNATED AS LLVL CAA HAS CEASED AND WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
THIS MORNING.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL RETURN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE
DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT DEEPENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY INJECTION OF
UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE. 00Z NAM SHOWS H85 MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WEAK TROF AXIS.
A COLD POOL COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING H85 TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR -11C. WHILE NOT OPTIMAL...THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AID
IN SNOW GENERATION WITH THE WEAK WAVE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPAND POPS SOUTH NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE LAUREL AND CHESTNUT RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SQUASH ANY REMAIN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRI. THE LLVL INVERSION WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH...BUT EROSION OF THAT MOISTURE DOES
OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST CHANCE TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO SKIRT OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAT IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. BACKED OFF POPS AND
SLOWED TIMING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE...EVEN THE SREF MEAN HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS...BUCKING THE NRN TRACK IT CLUNG TO EARLIER.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AND SLIGHT CHANCE SITES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. &&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE STAGNATED AS LLVL CAA HAS CEASED AND WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
THIS MORNING.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL RETURN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE
DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT DEEPENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY INJECTION OF
UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE. 00Z NAM SHOWS H85 MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WEAK TROF AXIS.
A COLD POOL COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING H85 TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR -11C. WHILE NOT OPTIMAL...THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AID
IN SNOW GENERATION WITH THE WEAK WAVE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPAND POPS SOUTH NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE LAUREL AND CHESTNUT RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SQUASH ANY REMAIN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRI. THE LLVL INVERSION WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH...BUT EROSION OF THAT MOISTURE DOES
OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST CHANCE TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO SKIRT OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAT IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. BACKED OFF POPS AND
SLOWED TIMING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE...EVEN THE SREF MEAN HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS...BUCKING THE NRN TRACK IT CLUNG TO EARLIER.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AND SLIGHT CHANCE SITES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. &&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 181138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE STAGNATED AS LLVL CAA HAS CEASED AND WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
THIS MORNING.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL RETURN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE
DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT DEEPENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY INJECTION OF
UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE. 00Z NAM SHOWS H85 MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WEAK TROF AXIS.
A COLD POOL COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING H85 TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR -11C. WHILE NOT OPTIMAL...THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AID
IN SNOW GENERATION WITH THE WEAK WAVE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPAND POPS SOUTH NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE LAUREL AND CHESTNUT RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SQUASH ANY REMAIN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRI. THE LLVL INVERSION WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH...BUT EROSION OF THAT MOISTURE DOES
OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST CHANCE TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO SKIRT OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAT IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. BACKED OFF POPS AND
SLOWED TIMING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE...EVEN THE SREF MEAN HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS...BUCKING THE NRN TRACK IT CLUNG TO EARLIER.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AND SLIGHT CHANCE SITES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. &&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE STAGNATED AS LLVL CAA HAS CEASED AND WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
THIS MORNING.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL RETURN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE
DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT DEEPENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY INJECTION OF
UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE. 00Z NAM SHOWS H85 MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WEAK TROF AXIS.
A COLD POOL COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING H85 TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR -11C. WHILE NOT OPTIMAL...THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AID
IN SNOW GENERATION WITH THE WEAK WAVE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPAND POPS SOUTH NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE LAUREL AND CHESTNUT RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SQUASH ANY REMAIN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRI. THE LLVL INVERSION WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH...BUT EROSION OF THAT MOISTURE DOES
OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST CHANCE TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO SKIRT OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAT IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. BACKED OFF POPS AND
SLOWED TIMING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE...EVEN THE SREF MEAN HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS...BUCKING THE NRN TRACK IT CLUNG TO EARLIER.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AND SLIGHT CHANCE SITES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR AT TIMES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. &&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 181118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KRLX 181046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180925
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE STAGNATED AS LLVL CAA HAS CEASED AND WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THIS
MORNING.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL RETURN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE
DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT DEEPENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY INJECTION OF
UPSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE. 00Z NAM SHOWS H85 MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WEAK TROF AXIS.
A COLD POOL COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING H85 TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR -11C. WHILE NOT OPTIMAL...THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AID
IN SNOW GENERATION WITH THE WEAK WAVE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPAND POPS SOUTH NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE LAUREL AND CHESTNUT RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SQUASH ANY REMAIN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRI. THE LLVL INVERSION WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH...BUT EROSION OF THAT MOISTURE DOES
OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST CHANCE TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO SKIRT OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAT IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. BACKED OFF POPS AND
SLOWED TIMING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE...EVEN THE SREF MEAN HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS...BUCKING THE NRN TRACK IT CLUNG TO EARLIER.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND DEEPENS AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERALL ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THAT AND LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS
VERY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...OPTED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z WPC...EC...AND GEFS....WHICH
RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BIG INCREASE IN BOTH LOW AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CURRENTLY...THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING V-COMPONENT ANOMALIES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS STRONG WAA IN
PLAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS
CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE...LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FULLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT
WHICH TIME ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
SHOULD HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG WE MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST PROGGED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES. IN GENERAL...CURRENTLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE. NOMADS REANALYSIS BASED
ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN GIVES AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR SO OF SNOW FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THE NIGHT OF
THE 24TH AND INTO THE 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP SITES
UNDER MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY...WITH SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO VFR WHILE SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY
SEE IFR AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. &&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180850
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL PA.  AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES.  EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180850
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL PA.  AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES.  EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KILN 180848
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVE AS THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE EVENING. DURING THIS BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AOB FL050 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION
IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU








000
FXUS61 KILN 180848
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVE AS THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE EVENING. DURING THIS BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AOB FL050 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION
IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 180848
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVE AS THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE EVENING. DURING THIS BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AOB FL050 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION
IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 180848
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING PERHAPS A BIT OF EROSION IN THESE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF SOME ADVANCING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY DISSIPATION
IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE OVERCOME BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE
IS PRETTY LIMITED AND RATHER DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 950 MB AND 700
MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREE
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVE AS THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE EVENING. DURING THIS BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AOB FL050 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION
IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180641
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSIST AS THE TAIL VORT PASSES
EAST EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. AS THE AXIS PASSES...LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM WRLY TO NWRLY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PENETRATION OF LAKE MOISTURE INTO OUR NRN ZONES...EVEN AS THE SFC
WINDS REMAIN LARGELY OUT OF THE WEST. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE
SLOWLY SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
THIS MORNING...SO AM EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TO CEASE. COLDEST H85 TEMPS ARE BEING
REALIZED NOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z PER THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAPS THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. EXPECTING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY...LAYER
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT. THIS AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...AM EXPECTING SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
DWINDLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MID-MORNING THOUGH THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180641
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSIST AS THE TAIL VORT PASSES
EAST EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. AS THE AXIS PASSES...LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM WRLY TO NWRLY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PENETRATION OF LAKE MOISTURE INTO OUR NRN ZONES...EVEN AS THE SFC
WINDS REMAIN LARGELY OUT OF THE WEST. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE
SLOWLY SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
THIS MORNING...SO AM EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TO CEASE. COLDEST H85 TEMPS ARE BEING
REALIZED NOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z PER THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAPS THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. EXPECTING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY...LAYER
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT. THIS AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...AM EXPECTING SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
DWINDLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MID-MORNING THOUGH THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 180559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA BY
MORNING...WITH COOL WNW FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVE MIN IN SURFACE/925MB TEMPS THAT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
OHIO TO MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING OFF A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...SO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTION OF FLOW WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ADVECTION OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED
SATURATION BETWEEN 925MB AND 875MB...CAPTURED WELL ON THE NAM12
AND RAP13...BUT VERY POORLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE EROSION OF
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAS SLOWED OR
STOPPED...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
900MB AFTER 06Z...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS CLOSER TO MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST >
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVE AS THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE EVENING. DURING THIS BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AOB FL050 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION
IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KCLE 180442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 180442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 180329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 180221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 180205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
905 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 180149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
849 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA BY
MORNING...WITH COOL WNW FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVE MIN IN SURFACE/925MB TEMPS THAT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
OHIO TO MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING OFF A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...SO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTION OF FLOW WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ADVECTION OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED
SATURATION BETWEEN 925MB AND 875MB...CAPTURED WELL ON THE NAM12
AND RAP13...BUT VERY POORLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE EROSION OF
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAS SLOWED OR
STOPPED...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
900MB AFTER 06Z...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS CLOSER TO MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST >
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 1200 AND 2200 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A SLIGHT
LIFTING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF EROSION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST COULD WORK INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA
OVERNIGHT...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS EROSION WILL SLOW OR STOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WNW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS TOMORROW. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AFTER 18Z...WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 180149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
849 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA BY
MORNING...WITH COOL WNW FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVE MIN IN SURFACE/925MB TEMPS THAT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
OHIO TO MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING OFF A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...SO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTION OF FLOW WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ADVECTION OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED
SATURATION BETWEEN 925MB AND 875MB...CAPTURED WELL ON THE NAM12
AND RAP13...BUT VERY POORLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE EROSION OF
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAS SLOWED OR
STOPPED...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
900MB AFTER 06Z...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS CLOSER TO MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST >
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 1200 AND 2200 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A SLIGHT
LIFTING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF EROSION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST COULD WORK INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA
OVERNIGHT...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS EROSION WILL SLOW OR STOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WNW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS TOMORROW. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AFTER 18Z...WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 180009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 180009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172343 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OWING
TO THE AIR MASS CHANGE AND STILL STRONG ADVECTION WITH UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP NORTH AND IN
THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING
SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172343 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OWING
TO THE AIR MASS CHANGE AND STILL STRONG ADVECTION WITH UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP NORTH AND IN
THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING
SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 172320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172301
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OWING
TO THE AIR MASS CHANGE AND STILL STRONG ADVECTION WITH UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP NORTH AND IN
THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING
SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172301
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OWING
TO THE AIR MASS CHANGE AND STILL STRONG ADVECTION WITH UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP NORTH AND IN
THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING
SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172301
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OWING
TO THE AIR MASS CHANGE AND STILL STRONG ADVECTION WITH UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP NORTH AND IN
THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING
SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172301
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OWING
TO THE AIR MASS CHANGE AND STILL STRONG ADVECTION WITH UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP NORTH AND IN
THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING
SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 172301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY









000
FXUS61 KCLE 172301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS WILL SOON BE DROPPING SE ACROSS LERI TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN THE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY










000
FXUS61 KILN 172251
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
551 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 1200 AND 2200 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A SLIGHT
LIFTING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF EROSION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST COULD WORK INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA
OVERNIGHT...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS EROSION WILL SLOW OR STOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WNW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS TOMORROW. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AFTER 18Z...WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KILN 172128
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL
THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT
THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 172128
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL
THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT
THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 172041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST GETTING STRUNG OUT A BIT AS
IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN
THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND THE OBSERVED UPSTREAM DATA...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRACK
RIGHT NEAR ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN
ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE
INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






000
FXUS61 KCLE 172041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST GETTING STRUNG OUT A BIT AS
IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN
THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND THE OBSERVED UPSTREAM DATA...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRACK
RIGHT NEAR ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN
ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE
INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171958
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TONIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EXPECTED TO BRING AN
INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE LOW INVERSION HEIGHT AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF THE REGION MAINLY PRECIP
FREE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW INVERSIONS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171958
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TONIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EXPECTED TO BRING AN
INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE LOW INVERSION HEIGHT AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF THE REGION MAINLY PRECIP
FREE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW INVERSIONS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 171828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KILN 171745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB IS CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK STRETCHES BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR MUCH HOPE OF SEEING ANY CLOUD EROSION IN OUR AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM MUCH FROM CURRENT MID MORNING READINGS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO PERHAPS THE MID/UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL
THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT
THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 171745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB IS CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK STRETCHES BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR MUCH HOPE OF SEEING ANY CLOUD EROSION IN OUR AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM MUCH FROM CURRENT MID MORNING READINGS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO PERHAPS THE MID/UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL
THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT
THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 171706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171622
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1122 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS
INTO REGION.

AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AT 850MB THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. PRECIP IS NOW ALMOST ALL SNOW AND HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS. WANING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS LIGHT. TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES FLOW WILL TURN A BIT
NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF REGION DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171622
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1122 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS
INTO REGION.

AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AT 850MB THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. PRECIP IS NOW ALMOST ALL SNOW AND HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS. WANING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS LIGHT. TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES FLOW WILL TURN A BIT
NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF REGION DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KILN 171458
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB IS CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK STRETCHES BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR MUCH HOPE OF SEEING ANY CLOUD EROSION IN OUR AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM MUCH FROM CURRENT MID MORNING READINGS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO PERHAPS THE MID/UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BASED ON
WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING UPSTREAM FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATE WITH VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND SYNOPTIC PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 AM. SOME BANDED LIGHT COLD ADVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT MIDDAY BUT IT DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
ANY TRUE LAKE EFFECT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN
MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
DECREASING TREND TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE
NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE
MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND SYNOPTIC PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 AM. SOME BANDED LIGHT COLD ADVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT MIDDAY BUT IT DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
ANY TRUE LAKE EFFECT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN
MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
DECREASING TREND TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE
NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE
MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AT 850MB THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. PRECIP IS NOW ALMOST ALL SNOW AND HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS. WANING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS LIGHT. TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES FLOW WILL TURN A BIT
NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF REGION DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AT 850MB THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. PRECIP IS NOW ALMOST ALL SNOW AND HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS. WANING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS LIGHT. TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES FLOW WILL TURN A BIT
NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF REGION DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRLX 171309
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN A MID MORNING UPDATE...WENT HIGHER POPS THROUGH 15/16Z IN OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BTWN EKN AND BKW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW
ACCUM BUT LIMITED COVERAGE...PROBABLY ABOVE 3500 FEET.

THE TEMPERATURE TRACE IN THE LOWLANDS COULD STILL FALL THROUGH
ABOUT 15/16Z THEN OSCILLATE. ALSO ADDED A FEW FLAKES POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL..RELATIVELY MINOR
FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE
JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE
CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE
BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KCLE 171159
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






000
FXUS61 KCLE 171159
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KILN 171154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS
OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BASED ON
WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING UPSTREAM FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATE WITH VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU






000
FXUS61 KILN 171154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS
OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BASED ON
WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING UPSTREAM FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATE WITH VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AREA
PORTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD LARGELY SEE LOW MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE
DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY BE LIGHT FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE
AFTER ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AREA
PORTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD LARGELY SEE LOW MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE
DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY BE LIGHT FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE
AFTER ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AREA
PORTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD LARGELY SEE LOW MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE
DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY BE LIGHT FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE
AFTER ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AREA
PORTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD LARGELY SEE LOW MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE
DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY BE LIGHT FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE
AFTER ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 171036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE
LAST WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
ANOTHER MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE
BOARD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE
JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE
CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE
BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 171036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE
LAST WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
ANOTHER MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE
BOARD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE
JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE
CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE
BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170952
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER
ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170952
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER
ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170952
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER
ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170952
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER
ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170952
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER
ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170952
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...AS MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 BEGINS TO DRY UP. NOW THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS
TEMPS DOWN TO ENOUGH TO GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
APPRECIABLE ICING.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC
TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE
COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO
DISLODGE FOR SOME TIME.

TONIGHT THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS NORTH AS A STRONG JET
TURNS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL. HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING OF THE BL MOISTURE DUE TO INJECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT
FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT FROM THE SRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
UP TO H8 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS ENHANCED COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS BRINGS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOW ENOUGH TO OVERLAP
THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE. STILL...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ULTIMATELY KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE
LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO
HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE EAST AND
BRUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
IN TEMPERATURES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE
LATEST BLEND OF THE EC AND GEFS...AND AN OVERALL RUN TO RUN TREND
AMONG MODELS IN SHOWING A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RANGE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER
ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 170914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DECREASING TREND TO
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REMAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES TO BELOW 800MB THIS
MORNING...WITH DECREASING ICE NUCLEI...BEFORE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO NW PA UNTIL SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. ON BAND WAS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AND
IT WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING OFF AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH AFTER 06Z WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT
EAST OF CLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT.

CONDITIONS TO START WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND THEN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF CLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KILN 170906
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS
OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING AFTER 15Z. BUT BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING UPSTREAM HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLED WITH TEMPO. ALSO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SE CANADA AND MOVING ENE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST THAT VCSH
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO ALL TAFS TILL AROUND SUNRISE. THE VCSH
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO GOOD WAY TO HANDLE THESE VSBYS IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE TEMPO IFR CLOUDS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

SINCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE INTRODUCE WIND GUSTS BACK INTO THE TAFS ALTHOUGH
AT LOWER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. WEST WINDS AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUST 20 KT DURING THE DAY AND W
AT 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU








000
FXUS61 KILN 170906
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS
OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING AFTER 15Z. BUT BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING UPSTREAM HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLED WITH TEMPO. ALSO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SE CANADA AND MOVING ENE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST THAT VCSH
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO ALL TAFS TILL AROUND SUNRISE. THE VCSH
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO GOOD WAY TO HANDLE THESE VSBYS IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE TEMPO IFR CLOUDS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

SINCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE INTRODUCE WIND GUSTS BACK INTO THE TAFS ALTHOUGH
AT LOWER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. WEST WINDS AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUST 20 KT DURING THE DAY AND W
AT 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 170906
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS
OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING AFTER 15Z. BUT BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING UPSTREAM HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLED WITH TEMPO. ALSO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SE CANADA AND MOVING ENE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST THAT VCSH
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO ALL TAFS TILL AROUND SUNRISE. THE VCSH
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO GOOD WAY TO HANDLE THESE VSBYS IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE TEMPO IFR CLOUDS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

SINCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE INTRODUCE WIND GUSTS BACK INTO THE TAFS ALTHOUGH
AT LOWER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. WEST WINDS AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUST 20 KT DURING THE DAY AND W
AT 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU








000
FXUS61 KILN 170906
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS
OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING
CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING AFTER 15Z. BUT BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING UPSTREAM HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO
WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLED WITH TEMPO. ALSO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SE CANADA AND MOVING ENE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST THAT VCSH
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO ALL TAFS TILL AROUND SUNRISE. THE VCSH
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO GOOD WAY TO HANDLE THESE VSBYS IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE TEMPO IFR CLOUDS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

SINCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE INTRODUCE WIND GUSTS BACK INTO THE TAFS ALTHOUGH
AT LOWER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. WEST WINDS AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUST 20 KT DURING THE DAY AND W
AT 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KRLX 170851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST
WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER
MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 170851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST
WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER
MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.