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000
FXUS61 KILN 250848
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DIGGING UPR LVL LOW OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA BY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...A WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE 3K-5K RANGE MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN PARTS THIS MORNING DUE TO WEAK WAA IN THIS LAYER. BY
AFTERNOON...WITH DIURNAL MIXING...THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES WILL
DIMINISH. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL
PUSH EAST WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST TO NEAR 70 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
CONTINUING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACRS NRN LOCATIONS COMPARE TO YESTERDAYS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PEAKING NEAR YESTERDAYS HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TO OUR WEST. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY
OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY...SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NON DIURNAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES WILL BE SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...RECORDS
LOOK SAFE AS THEY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MONDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
OUR REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY ERRATIC CONTINUITY WITH
ITS PAST RUNS WHILE THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT. ALL IN ALL...THE
ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE. IN EITHER CASE...PCPN SHOULD
INCREASE FASTER INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS SUCH. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHIFTING TIMING...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
NOW. IT WILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN
INCREASING...NOT AS MUCH AS MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. CLOUDS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
LOWEST BETWEEN 15Z-21Z...WHERE THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SKIES WILL GO CLEAR DURING
THE EVENING...AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WSW DURING THE
DAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW BY LATE AFTERNOON...REMAINING SLIGHTLY GUSTY
THROUGH SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250808
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER AIR BACK
TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE JET STREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL DIVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS NW OHIO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NE
OH/NW PA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE JET AND WITH NO GULF INFLOW NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH I SUPPOSE SOMEONE COULD SEE A DROP OR TWO. WE HAVE
BEEN CARRYING A "SLIGHT CHANCE" AROUND ERIE PA AND I WILL JUST CALL
IT "SPRINKLES". THE AIR MASS IS TOO WARM FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
CURRENTLY A HODGE PODGE OF CLOUDS OUT THERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING NE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VARIETY
OF CLOUDS I SUSPECT THAT TEMPS WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN GIVEN
THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...PROBABLY
MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST. THE BREEZE...15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTY...WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CHILLY THOUGH ESPECIALLY
IN THE SHADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
PROBABLY ONLY IN THE SNOWBELT AND PERHAPS MAINLY ACROSS NW PA. A
WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH THE AIR MASS BEING DRY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA AROUND 10 PERCENT. SUNNY ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY
AND SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LOTS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BY MONDAY. A BATCH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
SOME DECENT SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY
LINGER. WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NW OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OH...PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

THE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST ...BARELY GETTING THE FRONT
TO I-71 BY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALL OUT SLOW AND I
THINK IT IS BETTER TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NE OH/NW PA IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND I SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE CONSIDERING
THE DECENT JET ENERGY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL
KEEP IT WARM TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER UPPER LOW CURLS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH JUST A SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO JUST AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD FILLS IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.

A FAIRLY ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT VARY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND THESE MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. DID
INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH COULD BRING THE
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW IT
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE RIDGE ALREADY BUILDING
OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO MVFR
AT TOL AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COULD
SEE IFR VISIBILITIES OR STRATUS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-12Z...MAINLY AT TOL.
VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...BUT ONLY LASTING
FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH. VERY DRY AIR WILL
ALSO ARRIVE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT. EXPECTING VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND REMOVED
THE MENTION FROM ALL SITES BUT VCSH AT ERI. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR SHOULD BE BOTH BRIEF AND LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AFTER 11
AM FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF AVON WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7
FEET BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BACK
TO THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO TOLEDO. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS AND WAVES FINALLY DECREASE ENOUGH WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.  THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET.

WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.  CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE.

THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85.  THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH
ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS.  KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.  DID SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EARLY SAT MORNING.  DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY E
OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH JUST MVFR MIST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THE
FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z SAT MORNING...YIELDING A VFR DAY.  A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER...E OF THE OHIO RIVER SAT AFTERNOON AND NT.  AN ASSOCIATED
STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR SAT NT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW SAT...AND THEN
BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.  LIGHT
TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING COULD VARY.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES SAT EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 10/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM






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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FROPA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KRLX 250600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.  A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

1000 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EARLY SAT MORNING.  DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY E
OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH JUST MVFR MIST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THE
FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z SAT MORNING...YIELDING A VFR DAY.  A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER...E OF THE OHIO RIVER SAT AFTERNOON AND NT.  AN ASSOCIATED
STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR SAT NT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW SAT...AND THEN
BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.  LIGHT
TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING COULD VARY.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES SAT EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 10/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KCLE 250552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER NE OH AND NW PA WILL MOVE EAST AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THAT AREA. OVER NW OHIO VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS. WITH THE SKY COVER BEING VARIABLE THAT
WILL PLAY HAVOC ON THE LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO NOT
ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM...PATCHY 4 MILES IN FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. ONLY NW PA HAS A SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THERE THE PRECIP PROBABLY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
HUNDREDTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP JUST FOR NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WARM TO PLUS 14
DEGREES OR SO AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM WITH HIGH PROBABLY GETTING INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED IN THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FIELDS.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BUT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LARGER AREAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL ALSO ADD MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. LAKE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHORT BREAK TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH WILL BE
WEAK SINCE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHINESS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO MVFR
AT TOL AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COULD
SEE IFR VISIBILITIES OR STRATUS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-12Z...MAINLY AT TOL.
VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...BUT ONLY LASTING
FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH. VERY DRY AIR WILL
ALSO ARRIVE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT. EXPECTING VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND REMOVED
THE MENTION FROM ALL SITES BUT VCSH AT ERI. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR SHOULD BE BOTH BRIEF AND LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND TRAJECTORY AT
THIS POINT COULD PUSH HIGHEST WAVES JUST BEYOND THE 5 NM RANGE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING HIGHER WAVES INTO THE
SHORE FROM ABOUT FAIRPORT HARBOR NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KILN 250536
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE PASSAGE OF INITIAL S/W THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/LOWER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SKY CONDITION ALLOWING FOR A LTL MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF TO LOWS LKLY BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AND THEN STEADY OUT
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS
STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG
TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.  BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA.  THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. CLOUDS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
LOWEST BETWEEN 15Z-21Z...WHERE THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SKIES WILL GO CLEAR DURING
THE EVENING...AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WSW DURING THE
DAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW BY LATE AFTERNOON...REMAINING SLIGHTLY GUSTY
THROUGH SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1248 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KILN 250229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE PASSAGE OF INITIAL S/W THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/LOWER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SKY CONDITION ALLOWING FOR A LTL MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF TO LOWS LKLY BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AND THEN STEADY OUT
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS
STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG
TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.  BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA.  THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO DROP SE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
OFFERING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIGS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THIS SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET
DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN
PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL
MITIGATE ITS DEVELOPMENT.

A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER IS PSBL SATURDAY MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES...
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FCST. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES SAT AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250203
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1003 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME
CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING
IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER AND SOME MVFR CIGS WITH
THIS. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 10/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 250138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER NE OH AND NW PA WILL MOVE EAST AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THAT AREA. OVER NW OHIO VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS. WITH THE SKY COVER BEING VARIABLE THAT
WILL PLAY HAVOC ON THE LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO NOT
ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM...PATCHY 4 MILES IN FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. ONLY NW PA HAS A SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THERE THE PRECIP PROBABLY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
HUNDREDTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP JUST FOR NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WARM TO PLUS 14
DEGREES OR SO AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM WITH HIGH PROBABLY GETTING INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED IN THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FIELDS.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BUT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LARGER AREAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL ALSO ADD MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. LAKE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHORT BREAK TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH WILL BE
WEAK SINCE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHINESS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW PATCHES OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE JUST PAST FDY BY 18Z AND NEAR ERI AND YNG BY 00Z. SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. A
BAND OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH THE
COLD FRONT ON SAT.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 13 TO 15Z SAT MORNING AND START GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THEN BECOME W WITH FROPA AND GUST TO 25
KNOTS SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND TRAJECTORY AT
THIS POINT COULD PUSH HIGHEST WAVES JUST BEYOND THE 5 NM RANGE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING HIGHER WAVES INTO THE
SHORE FROM ABOUT FAIRPORT HARBOR NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...AGAIN UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. PATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND
SOMEWHAT WITH TIME AS DEPICTED ON NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM OVER THE TOP AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. LEFT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE FOR THE
MOST PART. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO SINK A LITTLE
BIT BELOW LATEST LAMP NUMBERS GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...BEFORE
CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

STILL DUBIOUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AS THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STILL...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE.  CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 242346
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
746 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY
GET SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT SO THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS
STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG
TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.  BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA.  THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO DROP SE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
OFFERING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIGS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THIS SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET
DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN
PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL
MITIGATE ITS DEVELOPMENT.

A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER IS PSBL SATURDAY MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES...
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FCST. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES SAT AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT TO CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 242312
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME
CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING
IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER AND SOME MVFR CIGS WITH
THIS. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 242301
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO INCREASE IT. THE SKY COVER COULD BE
VARIABLE TONIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
STILL BE PERIODS OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET COOL. HAVE GONE A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON
LAST NIGHT AND THE FACT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. ONLY NW PA HAS A SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THERE THE PRECIP PROBABLY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
HUNDREDTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP JUST FOR NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WARM TO PLUS 14
DEGREES OR SO AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM WITH HIGH PROBABLY GETTING INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED IN THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FIELDS.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BUT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LARGER AREAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL ALSO ADD MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. LAKE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHORT BREAK TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH WILL BE
WEAK SINCE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHINESS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW PATCHES OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE JUST PAST FDY BY 18Z AND NEAR ERI AND YNG BY 00Z. SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. A
BAND OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH THE
COLD FRONT ON SAT.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 13 TO 15Z SAT MORNING AND START GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THEN BECOME W WITH FROPA AND GUST TO 25
KNOTS SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND TRAJECTORY AT
THIS POINT COULD PUSH HIGHEST WAVES JUST BEYOND THE 5 NM RANGE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING HIGHER WAVES INTO THE
SHORE FROM ABOUT FAIRPORT HARBOR NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO INCREASE IT. THE SKY COVER COULD BE
VARIABLE TONIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
STILL BE PERIODS OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET COOL. HAVE GONE A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON
LAST NIGHT AND THE FACT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. ONLY NW PA HAS A SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THERE THE PRECIP PROBABLY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
HUNDREDTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP JUST FOR NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WARM TO PLUS 14
DEGREES OR SO AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM WITH HIGH PROBABLY GETTING INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED IN THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FIELDS.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BUT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LARGER AREAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL ALSO ADD MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. LAKE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHORT BREAK TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH WILL BE
WEAK SINCE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHINESS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500
AND 4000 FEET MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME 2500 FOOT CEILINGS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET OR SO BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND TRAJECTORY AT
THIS POINT COULD PUSH HIGHEST WAVES JUST BEYOND THE 5 NM RANGE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING HIGHER WAVES INTO THE
SHORE FROM ABOUT FAIRPORT HARBOR NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT TO CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 242029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY
GET SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT SO THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE
RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS
STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG
TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.  BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA.  THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND GENERALLY JUST
ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
PUSH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS SO IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH SOME LIFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
STILL BE PERIODS OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET COOL. HAVE GONE A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON
LAST NIGHT AND THE FACT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. ONLY NW PA HAS A SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THERE THE PRECIP PROBABLY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
HUNDREDTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP JUST FOR NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WARM TO PLUS 14
DEGREES OR SO AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM WITH HIGH PROBABLY GETTING INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED IN THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FIELDS.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BUT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LARGER AREAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL ALSO ADD MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. LAKE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHORT BREAK TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH WILL BE
WEAK SINCE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHINESS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500
AND 4000 FEET MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME 2500 FOOT CEILINGS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET OR SO BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND TRAJECTORY AT
THIS POINT COULD PUSH HIGHEST WAVES JUST BEYOND THE 5 NM RANGE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING HIGHER WAVES INTO THE
SHORE FROM ABOUT FAIRPORT HARBOR NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







000
FXUS61 KRLX 241923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING SOME MVFR/VFR
CLOUDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 241816
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING SOME MVFR/VFR
CLOUDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 241759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUR PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH AND
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD
AND NUDGE UP CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST A BIT BUT MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND GENERALLY JUST
ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
PUSH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS SO IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH SOME LIFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. FINE TUNED THE SKY FORECAST OTHERWISE NO
CHANGE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN
NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500
AND 4000 FEET MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME 2500 FOOT CEILINGS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET OR SO BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 241433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS.  MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KCLE 241333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. FINE TUNED THE SKY FORECAST OTHEWISE NO
CHANGE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN
NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST AND THIN TODAY. A BAND OF MID AND
LOWER CLOUDS (035-070) OVER INDIANA WILL REACH NW OHIO BY LATE
MORNING BUT MAKE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL HEADWAY. ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NW OHIO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION MVFR
FOG FOR NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUR PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH AND
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD
AND NUDGE UP CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST A BIT BUT MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
KEEP FOG AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...KLUK HAS DEVELOPED LIFR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEPART THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOWER MVFR CLOUDS
(3000-6000 FEET) EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AIRPORTS BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THIS RANGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TAFS WILL INDICATE THAT
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS THE CIRRUS THICKENS SO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM THE FORECAST. CIRRUS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM INDIANA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN
NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST AND THIN TODAY. A BAND OF MID AND
LOWER CLOUDS (035-070) OVER INDIANA WILL REACH NW OHIO BY LATE
MORNING BUT MAKE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL HEADWAY. ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NW OHIO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION MVFR
FOG FOR NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS THE CIRRUS THICKENS SO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM THE FORECAST. CIRRUS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM INDIANA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN
NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS THE CIRRUS THICKENS SO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM THE FORECAST. CIRRUS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM INDIANA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN
NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THIS FEATURE AND THE TWO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
WAS USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
KEEP FOG AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...KLUK HAS DEVELOPED LIFR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEPART THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOWER MVFR CLOUDS
(3000-6000 FEET) EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AIRPORTS BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THIS RANGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TAFS WILL INDICATE THAT
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KRLX 241017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS.  MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...WHILE DECREASING FOG THERE.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC EVEN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSS.  UPSLOPE STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING
FROM THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING ON
HEATING AND DRYING.  MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM THE W TO NW.  HAVE A
HINT OF THIS IN THE FCST.  OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUD
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN SAT
IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE BLENDS AND
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX INTO A
MORNING CU FIELD LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER
BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ELSEWHERE...VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRATOCU MADE IT AS FAR S AS BKW FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY RE-MATERIALIZE AS MORNING CU THERE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO THIS MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...FOG...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS BUT
WHICH ALSO MANAGED TO GET INTO BKW BRIEFLY...WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  LOWER CLOUD WILL
REACH THE OHIO RIVER AS 12Z SAT APPROACHES...AND MVFR STRATOCU MAY
REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CALM AIR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW TODAY
AND THEN BECOME CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR OF FOG MAY VARY FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF
THE FCST...AS MAY THAT OF STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FCST...DENSE VALLEY FOG MAY EVENTUALLY FORM
LATER TONIGHT.  THE FORMATION OF MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT IS ALSO IN QUESTION...ITS ABSENCE MAY ALLOW FOG THERE
AS WELL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KILN 240842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THIS FEATURE AND THE TWO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
WAS USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT.
THIS MAY OCCUR AT KLCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS
THICKEN AND TEMPERATURES CEASE FALLING. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
SUNRISE AT KLUK.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS...SWITCHING TO THE SW AND LESSENING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
412 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER
ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO
LOW 60S IN NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
412 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER
ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO
LOW 60S IN NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 240750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS.  MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC EVEN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSS.  UPSLOPE STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING
FROM THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING ON
HEATING AND DRYING.  MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM THE W TO NW.  HAVE A
HINT OF THIS IN THE FCST.  OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUD
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN SAT
IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE BLENDS AND
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240708
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KRLX 240641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN PER CURRENT TRENDS. THIS PROMPTED THE ADDITION
OF SOME FROST...ALTHOUGH THE FORMATION OF DEW EARLY ON MAY PREVENT
FROST FROM FORMING.

200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLEARING...AND HENCE THE FOG...FASTER AND FARTHER E.

1000 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KCLE 240555
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KRLX 240551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLEARING...AND HENCE THE FOG...FASTER AND FARTHER E.

1000 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KILN 240529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT.
THIS MAY OCCUR AT KLCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS
THICKEN AND TEMPERATURES CEASE FALLING. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
SUNRISE AT KLUK.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS...SWITCHING TO THE SW AND LESSENING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADDRESS GROWING STATUS FROM INDIANA COUNTY TO
VENANGO AND NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TO KMGW. STILL THINK STRATUS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH APPROACHING CIRRUS AND SURFACE RIDGE...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ABATE AS CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR ST ACRS NW PA IS EXPD TO AFFECT FKL AND DUJ OVRNGT
WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME
ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCLE 240331 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. THE CIRRUS MOVING IN IS THINNING SO UPDATED MANY OF THE
TAFS TO INDICATE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES. DID NOT GO WITH
DENSE FOG AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR IN
FAVORED SPOTS. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 240331 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1131 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. THE CIRRUS MOVING IN IS THINNING SO UPDATED MANY OF THE
TAFS TO INDICATE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES. DID NOT GO WITH
DENSE FOG AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR IN
FAVORED SPOTS. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KRLX 240201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS LOWLANDS...BUT STILL HANGING IN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT
HTS....PKB AND CRW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD PLAY SOME HAVOC WITH
FOG...HOWEVER THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG.
IF THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATE SOONER THAN
FORECAST...COULD ALSO END UP WITH SOME FOG FORMING THERE.

FOR FRIDAY...WITH HAVE CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. COULD GET A CU HERE OR THERE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR CATEGORICALLY IMPORTANT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 240201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS LOWLANDS...BUT STILL HANGING IN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT
HTS....PKB AND CRW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD PLAY SOME HAVOC WITH
FOG...HOWEVER THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG.
IF THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATE SOONER THAN
FORECAST...COULD ALSO END UP WITH SOME FOG FORMING THERE.

FOR FRIDAY...WITH HAVE CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. COULD GET A CU HERE OR THERE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR CATEGORICALLY IMPORTANT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KILN 240140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING ABOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD FORMATION. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
AROUND 15Z BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHILE SPEEDS STAY BELOW 7 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 240124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE YNG AREA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OVER NW OH THE CLOUDS COULD THIN AROUND DAYBREAK SOME
INDICATED A LITTLE FOG AT FDY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND THIN AND BURN OFF QUICKLY NOT LIKE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET








000
FXUS61 KCLE 232346
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE YNG AREA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OVER NW OH THE CLOUDS COULD THIN AROUND DAYBREAK SOME
INDICATED A LITTLE FOG AT FDY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND THIN AND BURN OFF QUICKLY NOT LIKE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KILN 232333
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES
MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING ABOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD FORMATION. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
AROUND 15Z BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHILE SPEEDS STAY BELOW 7 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 232316
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPS THIS EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS LOWLANDS...BUT STILL HANGING IN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT
HTS....PKB AND CRW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD PLAY SOME HAVOC WITH
FOG...HOWEVER THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG.
IF THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATE SOONER THAN
FORECAST...COULD ALSO END UP WITH SOME FOG FORMING THERE.

FOR FRIDAY...WITH HAVE CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. COULD GET A CU HERE OR THERE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR CATEGORICALLY IMPORTANT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 232223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LAKES
CREATING SOME CU IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS 2-3KFT. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT IN THESE CONDITIONS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FORMING BUT THE TIMING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE CRITICAL. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
IFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. I WILL NOT PLACE ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 232035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 232021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES
MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST
AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT
IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231930
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LAKES
CREATING SOME CU IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS 2-3KFT. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT IN THESE CONDITIONS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FORMING BUT THE TIMING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE CRITICAL. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
IFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. I WILL NOT PLACE ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 231723
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH FULL SUN...12Z ILN
SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF 59 DEGREES TODAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST
AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT
IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF OVER FINDLAY TO MARION LINE AS DAYTIME
MIXING SLOWLY ERODES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER SW OHIO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE. OVERALL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING
THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LAKES
CREATING SOME CU IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS 2-3KFT. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT IN THESE CONDITIONS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FORMING BUT THE TIMING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE CRITICAL. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
IFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. I WILL NOT PLACE ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF OVER FINDLAY TO MARION LINE AS DAYTIME
MIXING SLOWLY ERODES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER SW OHIO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE. OVERALL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING
THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231444
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET TOO
THIN THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KHTS IS VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING FOR
THE CLEARING. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG OVERNIGHT TO GET ANY
REAL FOG FORMATION. THERE CLOUD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND KEKN DURING THE MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF AS
CONFIDENCE OF BEING WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT.

WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS DROPPING OFF
OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE FOG IN THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY AND
DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 231444
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET TOO
THIN THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KHTS IS VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING FOR
THE CLEARING. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG OVERNIGHT TO GET ANY
REAL FOG FORMATION. THERE CLOUD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND KEKN DURING THE MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF AS
CONFIDENCE OF BEING WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT.

WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS DROPPING OFF
OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE FOG IN THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY AND
DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 231444
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET TOO
THIN THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KHTS IS VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING FOR
THE CLEARING. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG OVERNIGHT TO GET ANY
REAL FOG FORMATION. THERE CLOUD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND KEKN DURING THE MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF AS
CONFIDENCE OF BEING WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT.

WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS DROPPING OFF
OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE FOG IN THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY AND
DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 231444
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET TOO
THIN THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KHTS IS VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING FOR
THE CLEARING. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG OVERNIGHT TO GET ANY
REAL FOG FORMATION. THERE CLOUD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND KEKN DURING THE MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF AS
CONFIDENCE OF BEING WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT.

WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS DROPPING OFF
OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE FOG IN THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY AND
DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS
WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS..

BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR
VISIIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THGE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 231319
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH FULL SUN...12Z ILN
SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF 59 DEGREES TODAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED AS SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE HAS ERODED THE SC.


CIRRUS AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 TROF IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY...BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KLUK....POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR...BUT THE BUILDING CI WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS.

IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAFS CIGS DROP DOWN TO 5K FT. THERE MIGHT BE A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AFT 12Z THU...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS TO
LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KCLE 231249
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD KICK IN AROUND 10 AM WHICH
WILL QUICKLY ERODE MOST OF THIS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MILD WARM ADVECTION WILL
HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. AN APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE IN INDIANA WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR W COUNTIES
LATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPANDING INTO NW OHIO WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE REPORTED BETWEEN FINDLAY AND MARION. WEB
CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD VISIBILITIES IN
THE TOLEDO AREA. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FIELD AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPDATE.


LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIR MASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPANDING INTO NW OHIO WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE REPORTED BETWEEN FINDLAY AND MARION. WEB
CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD VISIBILITIES IN
THE TOLEDO AREA. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FIELD AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPATE.


LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
644 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
MIGRATES NORTHEAST TODAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAINS...SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY IS
OUT OF THE AREA WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE ALL VERY CLOSE SO WENT WITH AN BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KHTS IS VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING FOR
THE CLEARING. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG OVERNIGHT TO GET ANY
REAL FOG FORMATION. THERE CLOUD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND KEKN DURING THE MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF AS
CONFIDENCE OF BEING WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT.

WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS DROPPING OFF
OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE FOG IN THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY AND
DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KILN 231041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FROST ADVISORY SIGNIFICANTLY AS CLOUD COVER
IS INHIBITING TONIGHTS DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF DAYTON...AND OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA WILL STILL STAND A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO THE LOW AND MID 30S THIS MORNING
AND HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE ADVISORY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED AS SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE HAS ERODED THE SC.


CIRRUS AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 TROF IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY...BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KLUK....POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR...BUT THE BUILDING CI WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS.

IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAFS CIGS DROP DOWN TO 5K FT. THERE MIGHT BE A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AFT 12Z THU...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS TO
LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR...WL CONT IN N FLOW
ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










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