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000
FXUS61 KILN 250010
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
810 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP EWD FROM THE LOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG
THE WRMFNT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-STATE BY
12Z. TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ON POPS FOR TONIGHT. DRIED OUT CENTRAL
OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTREME SW
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN OWEN AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO THE UPPER
30S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE EJECTING H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL WLY FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL
CONSISTENT WITH IN TRACKING THE SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FA...AS IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SE SOME SORT OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOY PASSING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM
THE FILLING S/W. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

H5 S/W TROF ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH H8 CAA AND NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HAVE THESE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE CHANCE OF FROST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THEY SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 50S...WITH PARTS OF OWEN COUNTY MAKING IT TO NEAR
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN NRN
KY. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE
LOWER 40S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
W-E ORIENTED H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK POSSIBILITY OF A
SPRINKLE. LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT BEING DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST WITH
THE THOUGHT THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER BENEATH
THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO WRING OUT ANY MORE THAN A THICKER CLOUD.
THIS LEAVES MONDAY HIGH TEMPS AS THE COOLEST IN THE
FORECAST...STARTING OUT AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOW 60S FOR KY AND AREAS
ALONG OHIO RIVER.

HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN AND ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND AS THE H5 PATTERN REALLY
GETS KNOCKED AROUND WITH WEAK RIDGES IN BETWEEN VARIOUS TROUGHS AND
CUTOFF LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ENTRENCHED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PREVAIL AND HAMPER ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLES OF THIS TIME IN THE SEASON.

INTERSPERSED PERIODS OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS REACH AND SLIGHTLY
EXCEED CLIMO NORMALS BY DAY 7 BY TIPPING INTO THE 70S.

A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MEAN H5 RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER FALLING FROM A MID DECK BEFORE
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT HOWEVER BELIEVE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS
WILL BE MORE LIMITED AT KCVG AND KLUK AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF
THOSE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY AFTERNOON A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM SW TO NE BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF KCVG
AND KLUK HOWEVER WITH THESE SITES BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A PERIOD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 250010
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
810 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP EWD FROM THE LOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG
THE WRMFNT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-STATE BY
12Z. TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ON POPS FOR TONIGHT. DRIED OUT CENTRAL
OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTREME SW
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN OWEN AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO THE UPPER
30S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE EJECTING H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL WLY FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL
CONSISTENT WITH IN TRACKING THE SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FA...AS IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SE SOME SORT OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOY PASSING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM
THE FILLING S/W. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

H5 S/W TROF ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH H8 CAA AND NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HAVE THESE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE CHANCE OF FROST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THEY SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 50S...WITH PARTS OF OWEN COUNTY MAKING IT TO NEAR
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN NRN
KY. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE
LOWER 40S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
W-E ORIENTED H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK POSSIBILITY OF A
SPRINKLE. LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT BEING DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST WITH
THE THOUGHT THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER BENEATH
THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO WRING OUT ANY MORE THAN A THICKER CLOUD.
THIS LEAVES MONDAY HIGH TEMPS AS THE COOLEST IN THE
FORECAST...STARTING OUT AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOW 60S FOR KY AND AREAS
ALONG OHIO RIVER.

HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN AND ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND AS THE H5 PATTERN REALLY
GETS KNOCKED AROUND WITH WEAK RIDGES IN BETWEEN VARIOUS TROUGHS AND
CUTOFF LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ENTRENCHED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PREVAIL AND HAMPER ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLES OF THIS TIME IN THE SEASON.

INTERSPERSED PERIODS OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS REACH AND SLIGHTLY
EXCEED CLIMO NORMALS BY DAY 7 BY TIPPING INTO THE 70S.

A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MEAN H5 RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER FALLING FROM A MID DECK BEFORE
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT HOWEVER BELIEVE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS
WILL BE MORE LIMITED AT KCVG AND KLUK AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF
THOSE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY AFTERNOON A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM SW TO NE BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF KCVG
AND KLUK HOWEVER WITH THESE SITES BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A PERIOD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK





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000
FXUS61 KCLE 242330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LOWEST CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT AT MANSFIELD
WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT TOL...FDY...AND MFD AS WELL DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS EAST.

.OUTLOOK...LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 242330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LOWEST CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT AT MANSFIELD
WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT TOL...FDY...AND MFD AS WELL DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS EAST.

.OUTLOOK...LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LOWEST CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT AT MANSFIELD
WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT TOL...FDY...AND MFD AS WELL DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS EAST.

.OUTLOOK...LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242248
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242248
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 242248
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH CLEARING LIKELY RESUMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA EVEN BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER KY/WV SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY INITIALLY BE
CONCERNS FOR DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ALONG A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...ALBEIT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE KEPT CATEGORICAL BUT SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
WEST AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER POINTS SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NW-SE LOW TRACK
AND PRECIP AXIS.

DRY AIR WILL ENCROACH RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...CUTTING OFF THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD
COVERAGE BEYOND SOME DIURNAL CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PROVIDING FOR A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE PRESENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...A RETURN OF NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS..FOR POINTS
NORTH AND IN THE THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE PRODUCED USING A
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
EVENTUAL MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONINUE SOUTH OF PIT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. RESTRICITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 242042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP EWD FROM THE LOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG
THE WRMFNT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-STATE BY
12Z. TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ON POPS FOR TONIGHT. DRIED OUT CENTRAL
OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTREME SW
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN OWEN AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO THE UPPER
30S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE EJECTING H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL WLY FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL
CONSISTENT WITH IN TRACKING THE SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FA...AS IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SE SOME SORT OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOY PASSING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM
THE FILLING S/W. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

H5 S/W TROF ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH H8 CAA AND NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HAVE THESE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE CHANCE OF FROST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THEY SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 50S...WITH PARTS OF OWEN COUNTY MAKING IT TO NEAR
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN NRN
KY. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE
LOWER 40S IN NRN KY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
W-E ORIENTED H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK POSSIBILITY OF A
SPRINKLE. LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT BEING DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST WITH
THE THOUGHT THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER BENEATH
THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO WRING OUT ANY MORE THAN A THICKER CLOUD.
THIS LEAVES MONDAY HIGH TEMPS AS THE COOLEST IN THE
FORECAST...STARTING OUT AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOW 60S FOR KY AND AREAS
ALONG OHIO RIVER.

HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN AND ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND AS THE H5 PATTERN REALLY
GETS KNOCKED AROUND WITH WEAK RIDGES IN BETWEEN VARIOUS TROUGHS AND
CUTOFF LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ENTRENCHED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PREVAIL AND HAMPER ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLES OF THIS TIME IN THE SEASON.

INTERSPERSED PERIODS OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS REACH AND SLIGHTLY
EXCEED CLIMO NORMALS BY DAY 7 BY TIPPING INTO THE 70S.

A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MEAN H5 RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN TOWARDS 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL START TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS LATTER PRECIPITATION MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY AFTER 00Z AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 242042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP EWD FROM THE LOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG
THE WRMFNT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-STATE BY
12Z. TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ON POPS FOR TONIGHT. DRIED OUT CENTRAL
OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTREME SW
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN OWEN AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO THE UPPER
30S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE EJECTING H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL WLY FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL
CONSISTENT WITH IN TRACKING THE SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FA...AS IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SE SOME SORT OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOY PASSING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM
THE FILLING S/W. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

H5 S/W TROF ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH H8 CAA AND NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HAVE THESE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE CHANCE OF FROST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THEY SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 50S...WITH PARTS OF OWEN COUNTY MAKING IT TO NEAR
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN NRN
KY. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE
LOWER 40S IN NRN KY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
W-E ORIENTED H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK POSSIBILITY OF A
SPRINKLE. LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT BEING DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST WITH
THE THOUGHT THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER BENEATH
THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO WRING OUT ANY MORE THAN A THICKER CLOUD.
THIS LEAVES MONDAY HIGH TEMPS AS THE COOLEST IN THE
FORECAST...STARTING OUT AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOW 60S FOR KY AND AREAS
ALONG OHIO RIVER.

HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN AND ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND AS THE H5 PATTERN REALLY
GETS KNOCKED AROUND WITH WEAK RIDGES IN BETWEEN VARIOUS TROUGHS AND
CUTOFF LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ENTRENCHED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PREVAIL AND HAMPER ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLES OF THIS TIME IN THE SEASON.

INTERSPERSED PERIODS OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS REACH AND SLIGHTLY
EXCEED CLIMO NORMALS BY DAY 7 BY TIPPING INTO THE 70S.

A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MEAN H5 RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN TOWARDS 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL START TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS LATTER PRECIPITATION MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY AFTER 00Z AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IT`S HOLD OVER THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IT`S HOLD OVER THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IT`S HOLD OVER THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IT`S HOLD OVER THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 241849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM CONCENTRATING ON
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND VA...WHILE OTHER CONCENTRATE MORE
ON THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL WV. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT PREFER TO
LET THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE SITUATION A BIT BETTER FIRST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ENERGY...PROVIDING SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSED. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SMALL POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALOFT
DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SLINGING THE
FRINGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL IN
ALL...THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE WITHOUT ANY DIRECT HITS FROM UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIDGING ALOFT FINALLY LOOKS TO RETURN AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM CONCENTRATING ON
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND VA...WHILE OTHER CONCENTRATE MORE
ON THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL WV. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT PREFER TO
LET THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE SITUATION A BIT BETTER FIRST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ENERGY...PROVIDING SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSED. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SMALL POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALOFT
DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SLINGING THE
FRINGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL IN
ALL...THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE WITHOUT ANY DIRECT HITS FROM UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIDGING ALOFT FINALLY LOOKS TO RETURN AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH CLEARING LIKELY RESUMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA EVEN BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER KY/WV SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY INITIALLY BE
CONCERNS FOR DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ALONG A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...ALBEIT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE KEPT CATEGORICAL BUT SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
WEST AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER POINTS SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NW-SE LOW TRACK
AND PRECIP AXIS.

DRY AIR WILL ENCROACH RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...CUTTING OFF THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD
COVERAGE BEYOND SOME DIURNAL CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PROVIDING FOR A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE PRESENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...A RETURN OF NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS..FOR POINTS
NORTH AND IN THE THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE PRODUCED USING A
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS SLACKENING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
LOWER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY SLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND KZZV BY AROUND NOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE TIME OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH CLEARING LIKELY RESUMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA EVEN BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER KY/WV SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY INITIALLY BE
CONCERNS FOR DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ALONG A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...ALBEIT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE KEPT CATEGORICAL BUT SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
WEST AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER POINTS SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NW-SE LOW TRACK
AND PRECIP AXIS.

DRY AIR WILL ENCROACH RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...CUTTING OFF THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD
COVERAGE BEYOND SOME DIURNAL CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PROVIDING FOR A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE PRESENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...A RETURN OF NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS..FOR POINTS
NORTH AND IN THE THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE PRODUCED USING A
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS SLACKENING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
LOWER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY SLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND KZZV BY AROUND NOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE TIME OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH CLEARING LIKELY RESUMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA EVEN BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER KY/WV SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY INITIALLY BE
CONCERNS FOR DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ALONG A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...ALBEIT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE KEPT CATEGORICAL BUT SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
WEST AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER POINTS SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NW-SE LOW TRACK
AND PRECIP AXIS.

DRY AIR WILL ENCROACH RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...CUTTING OFF THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD
COVERAGE BEYOND SOME DIURNAL CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PROVIDING FOR A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE PRESENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...A RETURN OF NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS..FOR POINTS
NORTH AND IN THE THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE PRODUCED USING A
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS SLACKENING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
LOWER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY SLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND KZZV BY AROUND NOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE TIME OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH CLEARING LIKELY RESUMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA EVEN BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER KY/WV SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY INITIALLY BE
CONCERNS FOR DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ALONG A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...ALBEIT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE KEPT CATEGORICAL BUT SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
WEST AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER POINTS SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NW-SE LOW TRACK
AND PRECIP AXIS.

DRY AIR WILL ENCROACH RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...CUTTING OFF THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD
COVERAGE BEYOND SOME DIURNAL CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PROVIDING FOR A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE PRESENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...A RETURN OF NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS..FOR POINTS
NORTH AND IN THE THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE PRODUCED USING A
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS SLACKENING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
LOWER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY SLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND KZZV BY AROUND NOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE TIME OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 241829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KILN 241747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN TOWARDS 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL START TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS LATTER PRECIPITATION MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY AFTER 00Z AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241728
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH CLEARING LIKELY RESUMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA EVEN BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS SLACKENING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
LOWER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY SLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND KZZV BY AROUND NOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE TIME OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 241715
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
115 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241715
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
115 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241715
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
115 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN
-SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FULL CLEARING LIKELY VIRTUALLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FULL CLEARING LIKELY VIRTUALLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FULL CLEARING LIKELY VIRTUALLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FULL CLEARING LIKELY VIRTUALLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 241616
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241616
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241616
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241616
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 241616
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW PUFFS OF DIURNALLY-INDUCED FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
SOUTH OF THERE. GIVEN THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RETREATING
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FULL CLEARING LIKELY VIRTUALLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET.

AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD
TAPER INTO THE EVENING AS CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WEAK INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO COME INTO VIEW.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEIR ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO NOSE
DIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE MOST IMPORTANT MODULATOR TO THE DEPTHS TO WHICH THE MERCURY
WILL PROBE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE THE WARMEST READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY IN OHIO.

WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PLAGUE
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BACK IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL TO ITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS PVA WILL STREAM NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN PLACE UPON ITS ARRIVAL...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY
BEFORE THE RAIN ACTUALLY HITS THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF
THIS...PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE SLOWER-DEVELOPING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RESOLVING NAM.
ASSUMING THIS VERFIES...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF IN PITTSBURGH ITSELF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN STILL...A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 241412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW
VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E
SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY
500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW
VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E
SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY
500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW
VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E
SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY
500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW
VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E
SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY
500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE SOME MID CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. BUT
STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. FORECAST HIGHS...A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 241305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE SOME MID CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. BUT
STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. FORECAST HIGHS...A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 241305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE SOME MID CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. BUT
STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. FORECAST HIGHS...A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 241305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE SOME MID CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. BUT
STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. FORECAST HIGHS...A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY FRAMES OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
FEW MOUNTAIN LEE WAVE CLOUDS REMAINING EVEN TO OUR EAST. A BIT OF
SNOW COVER IS ALSO NOTED IN JEFFERSON...FOREST...AND NORTHERN
CLARION COUNTY AS SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COMBINED WITH LOWS LARGELY
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THAT LITTLE BIT TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RISING OF THE SUN AND
QUICKLY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY AND MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FAIL TO REACH 0C ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE 50S WILL BE
TOUGH TO MUSTER ANYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IT WILL AT LEAST BE A BOATLOAD WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY FRAMES OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
FEW MOUNTAIN LEE WAVE CLOUDS REMAINING EVEN TO OUR EAST. A BIT OF
SNOW COVER IS ALSO NOTED IN JEFFERSON...FOREST...AND NORTHERN
CLARION COUNTY AS SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COMBINED WITH LOWS LARGELY
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THAT LITTLE BIT TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RISING OF THE SUN AND
QUICKLY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY AND MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FAIL TO REACH 0C ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE 50S WILL BE
TOUGH TO MUSTER ANYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IT WILL AT LEAST BE A BOATLOAD WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY FRAMES OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
FEW MOUNTAIN LEE WAVE CLOUDS REMAINING EVEN TO OUR EAST. A BIT OF
SNOW COVER IS ALSO NOTED IN JEFFERSON...FOREST...AND NORTHERN
CLARION COUNTY AS SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COMBINED WITH LOWS LARGELY
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THAT LITTLE BIT TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RISING OF THE SUN AND
QUICKLY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY AND MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FAIL TO REACH 0C ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE 50S WILL BE
TOUGH TO MUSTER ANYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IT WILL AT LEAST BE A BOATLOAD WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY FRAMES OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
FEW MOUNTAIN LEE WAVE CLOUDS REMAINING EVEN TO OUR EAST. A BIT OF
SNOW COVER IS ALSO NOTED IN JEFFERSON...FOREST...AND NORTHERN
CLARION COUNTY AS SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COMBINED WITH LOWS LARGELY
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THAT LITTLE BIT TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RISING OF THE SUN AND
QUICKLY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY AND MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FAIL TO REACH 0C ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE 50S WILL BE
TOUGH TO MUSTER ANYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IT WILL AT LEAST BE A BOATLOAD WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY FRAMES OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
FEW MOUNTAIN LEE WAVE CLOUDS REMAINING EVEN TO OUR EAST. A BIT OF
SNOW COVER IS ALSO NOTED IN JEFFERSON...FOREST...AND NORTHERN
CLARION COUNTY AS SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COMBINED WITH LOWS LARGELY
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THAT LITTLE BIT TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RISING OF THE SUN AND
QUICKLY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY AND MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FAIL TO REACH 0C ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE 50S WILL BE
TOUGH TO MUSTER ANYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IT WILL AT LEAST BE A BOATLOAD WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY FRAMES OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
FEW MOUNTAIN LEE WAVE CLOUDS REMAINING EVEN TO OUR EAST. A BIT OF
SNOW COVER IS ALSO NOTED IN JEFFERSON...FOREST...AND NORTHERN
CLARION COUNTY AS SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COMBINED WITH LOWS LARGELY
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR THAT LITTLE BIT TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RISING OF THE SUN AND
QUICKLY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY AND MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FAIL TO REACH 0C ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE 50S WILL BE
TOUGH TO MUSTER ANYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IT WILL AT LEAST BE A BOATLOAD WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 241102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 241102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 241102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 241102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KILN 241055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND PLACING
THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FREEZE
WARNING.

AFTER A COLD AND SUNNY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LEVEL WAA CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN YDA WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 241055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND PLACING
THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FREEZE
WARNING.

AFTER A COLD AND SUNNY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LEVEL WAA CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN YDA WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 241055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND PLACING
THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FREEZE
WARNING.

AFTER A COLD AND SUNNY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LEVEL WAA CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN YDA WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SUNRISE UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS
WELL AS SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SUNRISE UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS
WELL AS SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SUNRISE UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS
WELL AS SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SUNRISE UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS
WELL AS SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SUNRISE UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS
WELL AS SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SUNRISE UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS
WELL AS SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 241017
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 241017
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 240928
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
528 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND PLACING
THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FREEZE
WARNING.

AFTER A COLD AND SUNNY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LEVEL WAA CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN YDA WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES
WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. CVG COULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THE END OF ITS 30
HOUR TAF...THOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL STAY
UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 240928
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
528 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND PLACING
THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FREEZE
WARNING.

AFTER A COLD AND SUNNY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LEVEL WAA CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN YDA WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO
THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE.
WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN
THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO
THE UPPER 40S SW.

THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER
SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE
ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES
ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES
WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. CVG COULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THE END OF ITS 30
HOUR TAF...THOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL STAY
UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KRLX 240801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS
MODELS PROJECT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LOW MAY STAY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...REDUCING BUT NOT ELIMINATING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE MID WEEK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
LOCALLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KCLE 240651
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
251 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. A COLD
START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP
GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER WELL
IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO MID AND UPPER
40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 240651
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
251 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. A COLD
START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP
GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER WELL
IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO MID AND UPPER
40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 240651
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
251 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. A COLD
START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP
GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER WELL
IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO MID AND UPPER
40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 240651
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
251 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. A COLD
START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP
GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER WELL
IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO MID AND UPPER
40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KILN 240540
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES
WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. CVG COULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THE END OF ITS 30
HOUR TAF...THOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL STAY
UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






000
FXUS61 KILN 240540
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES
WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. CVG COULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THE END OF ITS 30
HOUR TAF...THOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL STAY
UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KRLX 240521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 240521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 240521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 240521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240510
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHTHE PREDAWN
HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BETRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240510
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHTHE PREDAWN
HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BETRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240510
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHTHE PREDAWN
HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BETRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240510
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHTHE PREDAWN
HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BACKING WIND...DRY
ADVECTION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU OR STATOCU. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER AND HIGHS WERE PROJECTED ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
UNDER THE AVERAGES USING THE LATEST GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN PRIME
TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OWING TO
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SPELLING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SATURDAY POPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FEATURE
CHANCE NUMBERS OVER THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND CATEGORICALS OVER I 70
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
FOR FASTER EXITING AS PER THE LATEST TIMING TRENDS.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN WILL BETRICKY TONIGHT. INITIAL
CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
IMMEDIATE PREDAWN DROP. THE COLD TEMP FORECAST WAS THUS
CONSTRUCTED FOR AN EARLY LOW READING...WITH STABILIZATION OR A
SLOW RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF DAWN.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB AVERAGE READINGS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN










000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN










000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN










000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN










000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN











000
FXUS61 KCLE 240237
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1037 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE
ON THEIR WAY...AS OF 2330Z IT WAS AT KTOL. IT IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EXPECT TO LOSE THE BKN/OVC CEILING AT ALL SITES
BY 06Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA MAY LINGER INTO
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CHOOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THEM WITH VSBY NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 6SM. ERIE MAY DROP TO MVFR...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND VEER MORE WNW ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW PA.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OHIO NEAR 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 240237
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1037 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE
ON THEIR WAY...AS OF 2330Z IT WAS AT KTOL. IT IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EXPECT TO LOSE THE BKN/OVC CEILING AT ALL SITES
BY 06Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA MAY LINGER INTO
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CHOOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THEM WITH VSBY NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 6SM. ERIE MAY DROP TO MVFR...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND VEER MORE WNW ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW PA.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OHIO NEAR 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 240152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 240152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 240152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 240152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240120
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
920 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW
DIURNAL CU. NUDGED LOWS DOWN TONIGHT NEAR THE LATEST GFS
NUMBERS...WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND WILL
LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240120
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
920 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW
DIURNAL CU. NUDGED LOWS DOWN TONIGHT NEAR THE LATEST GFS
NUMBERS...WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND WILL
LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240058
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING EXITS...AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL
CU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240058
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING EXITS...AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL
CU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240058
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING EXITS...AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL
CU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY MID
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 232339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD AIR CU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESSES. BY 12Z...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FA WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. SO CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND
EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND...MAY MAKE
THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 232339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD AIR CU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESSES. BY 12Z...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FA WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. SO CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND
EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND...MAY MAKE
THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK






000
FXUS61 KILN 232339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD AIR CU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESSES. BY 12Z...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FA WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. SO CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND
EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND...MAY MAKE
THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING KCVG AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 232337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE
ON THEIR WAY...AS OF 2330Z IT WAS AT KTOL. IT IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EXPECT TO LOSE THE BKN/OVC CEILING AT ALL SITES
BY 06Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA MAY LINGER INTO
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CHOOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THEM WITH VSBY NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 6SM. ERIE MAY DROP TO MVFR...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND VEER MORE WNW ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW PA.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OHIO NEAR 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 232337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE
ON THEIR WAY...AS OF 2330Z IT WAS AT KTOL. IT IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EXPECT TO LOSE THE BKN/OVC CEILING AT ALL SITES
BY 06Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA MAY LINGER INTO
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CHOOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THEM WITH VSBY NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 6SM. ERIE MAY DROP TO MVFR...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND VEER MORE WNW ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW PA.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OHIO NEAR 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 232337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE
ON THEIR WAY...AS OF 2330Z IT WAS AT KTOL. IT IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EXPECT TO LOSE THE BKN/OVC CEILING AT ALL SITES
BY 06Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA MAY LINGER INTO
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CHOOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THEM WITH VSBY NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 6SM. ERIE MAY DROP TO MVFR...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND VEER MORE WNW ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW PA.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OHIO NEAR 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB





000
FXUS61 KCLE 232337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE
ON THEIR WAY...AS OF 2330Z IT WAS AT KTOL. IT IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EXPECT TO LOSE THE BKN/OVC CEILING AT ALL SITES
BY 06Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA MAY LINGER INTO
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT
CAK/YNG/ERI. CHOOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THEM WITH VSBY NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 6SM. ERIE MAY DROP TO MVFR...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND VEER MORE WNW ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW PA.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OHIO NEAR 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KCLE 232241
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 232241
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 232241
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 232241
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY SKY COVER TONIGHT BY
TIGHTENING THE CLEARING GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO CALL ALL OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
"FLURRIES". PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT
SINCE THE SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AND THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IS
GETTING FLATTER. NOT OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING EXITS...AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL
CU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU...WITH PATCHY MVFR NORTH OF I 80...SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THOSE TWO SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING EXITS...AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL
CU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU...WITH PATCHY MVFR NORTH OF I 80...SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THOSE TWO SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 232125
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
525 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 232125
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
525 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.   WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB





000
FXUS61 KILN 232017
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD AIR CU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESSES. BY 12Z...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FA WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. SO CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND
EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND...MAY MAKE
THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 232017
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD AIR CU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESSES. BY 12Z...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FA WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. SO CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND
EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND...MAY MAKE
THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THE NE.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A
LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS
PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S IN NRN KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS
PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 232003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 232003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THEN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEARING
LINE APPROACHING NORTHEAST INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING WILL STRUGGLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXTENT OF
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND WILL ONLY DROP OFF A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REACH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA NEVER RECOVERED MUCH ABOVE -5 TO -9C
TODAY...AND LIKEWISE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINED MIRED IN THE
NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE VERY EARLY ON. WHILE SOME
CLEARING HAD BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY DURING THE
DAY...THIS WAS FLEETING AS DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE QUICKLY TURNED THE
ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO A STRATOCUMULUS WASTELAND. IF YOU
THOUGHT IT SEEMED LIKE FEBRUARY TODAY...YOU WOULD BE ENTIRELY
CORRECT. IN FACT...HIGHS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERED
THE LONGEST...NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WERE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
30S...WHILE THE 40S WERE RELEGATED TO PITTSBURGH AND SOUTHWARD.
INDEED...THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY...NOT LATE APRIL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS DO CHANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VAST IMPROVEMENT AT
LEAST FROM A SKY-COVER PERSPECTIVE.

WHILE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT IN
THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WE WILL START TO SEE
500 HPA HEIGHTS RISING...AND LIKEWISE A STABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. BECAUSE OF HOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WORKING OUT WHEN OVERLAID WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS MEANS FROZEN HYDROMETEORS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO GENERATE AS THE UNSTABLE LAYER BEGINS TO FAIL TO INTERSECT THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING FROM ABOVE AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING AN END IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSIVELY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE START TO SCATTER
OUT STRATOCUMULUS AFTER A TIME ONCE THE MIXING OF DRY AIR INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700
HPA TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAKE SATURATING ANY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING RELATIVE TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A DRASTIC INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. THAT SAID...HIGHS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RULES THE ROOST
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SITES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO RAISE OFF THE GROUND...AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THOSE TWO
SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

FRIES/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA NEVER RECOVERED MUCH ABOVE -5 TO -9C
TODAY...AND LIKEWISE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINED MIRED IN THE
NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE VERY EARLY ON. WHILE SOME
CLEARING HAD BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY DURING THE
DAY...THIS WAS FLEETING AS DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE QUICKLY TURNED THE
ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO A STRATOCUMULUS WASTELAND. IF YOU
THOUGHT IT SEEMED LIKE FEBRUARY TODAY...YOU WOULD BE ENTIRELY
CORRECT. IN FACT...HIGHS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERED
THE LONGEST...NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WERE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
30S...WHILE THE 40S WERE RELEGATED TO PITTSBURGH AND SOUTHWARD.
INDEED...THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY...NOT LATE APRIL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS DO CHANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VAST IMPROVEMENT AT
LEAST FROM A SKY-COVER PERSPECTIVE.

WHILE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT IN
THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WE WILL START TO SEE
500 HPA HEIGHTS RISING...AND LIKEWISE A STABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. BECAUSE OF HOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WORKING OUT WHEN OVERLAID WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS MEANS FROZEN HYDROMETEORS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO GENERATE AS THE UNSTABLE LAYER BEGINS TO FAIL TO INTERSECT THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING FROM ABOVE AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING AN END IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSIVELY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE START TO SCATTER
OUT STRATOCUMULUS AFTER A TIME ONCE THE MIXING OF DRY AIR INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700
HPA TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAKE SATURATING ANY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING RELATIVE TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A DRASTIC INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. THAT SAID...HIGHS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RULES THE ROOST
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SITES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO RAISE OFF THE GROUND...AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THOSE TWO
SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

FRIES/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA NEVER RECOVERED MUCH ABOVE -5 TO -9C
TODAY...AND LIKEWISE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINED MIRED IN THE
NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE VERY EARLY ON. WHILE SOME
CLEARING HAD BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY DURING THE
DAY...THIS WAS FLEETING AS DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE QUICKLY TURNED THE
ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO A STRATOCUMULUS WASTELAND. IF YOU
THOUGHT IT SEEMED LIKE FEBRUARY TODAY...YOU WOULD BE ENTIRELY
CORRECT. IN FACT...HIGHS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERED
THE LONGEST...NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WERE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
30S...WHILE THE 40S WERE RELEGATED TO PITTSBURGH AND SOUTHWARD.
INDEED...THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY...NOT LATE APRIL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS DO CHANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VAST IMPROVEMENT AT
LEAST FROM A SKY-COVER PERSPECTIVE.

WHILE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT IN
THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WE WILL START TO SEE
500 HPA HEIGHTS RISING...AND LIKEWISE A STABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. BECAUSE OF HOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WORKING OUT WHEN OVERLAID WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS MEANS FROZEN HYDROMETEORS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO GENERATE AS THE UNSTABLE LAYER BEGINS TO FAIL TO INTERSECT THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING FROM ABOVE AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING AN END IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSIVELY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE START TO SCATTER
OUT STRATOCUMULUS AFTER A TIME ONCE THE MIXING OF DRY AIR INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700
HPA TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAKE SATURATING ANY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING RELATIVE TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A DRASTIC INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. THAT SAID...HIGHS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RULES THE ROOST
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SITES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO RAISE OFF THE GROUND...AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THOSE TWO
SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

FRIES/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA NEVER RECOVERED MUCH ABOVE -5 TO -9C
TODAY...AND LIKEWISE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINED MIRED IN THE
NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE VERY EARLY ON. WHILE SOME
CLEARING HAD BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY DURING THE
DAY...THIS WAS FLEETING AS DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE QUICKLY TURNED THE
ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO A STRATOCUMULUS WASTELAND. IF YOU
THOUGHT IT SEEMED LIKE FEBRUARY TODAY...YOU WOULD BE ENTIRELY
CORRECT. IN FACT...HIGHS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERED
THE LONGEST...NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WERE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
30S...WHILE THE 40S WERE RELEGATED TO PITTSBURGH AND SOUTHWARD.
INDEED...THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY...NOT LATE APRIL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS DO CHANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VAST IMPROVEMENT AT
LEAST FROM A SKY-COVER PERSPECTIVE.

WHILE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT IN
THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WE WILL START TO SEE
500 HPA HEIGHTS RISING...AND LIKEWISE A STABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. BECAUSE OF HOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WORKING OUT WHEN OVERLAID WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS MEANS FROZEN HYDROMETEORS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO GENERATE AS THE UNSTABLE LAYER BEGINS TO FAIL TO INTERSECT THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING FROM ABOVE AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING AN END IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSIVELY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE START TO SCATTER
OUT STRATOCUMULUS AFTER A TIME ONCE THE MIXING OF DRY AIR INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700
HPA TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAKE SATURATING ANY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING RELATIVE TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A DRASTIC INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. THAT SAID...HIGHS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RULES THE ROOST
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SITES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO RAISE OFF THE GROUND...AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THOSE TWO
SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

FRIES/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA NEVER RECOVERED MUCH ABOVE -5 TO -9C
TODAY...AND LIKEWISE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINED MIRED IN THE
NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE VERY EARLY ON. WHILE SOME
CLEARING HAD BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY DURING THE
DAY...THIS WAS FLEETING AS DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE QUICKLY TURNED THE
ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO A STRATOCUMULUS WASTELAND. IF YOU
THOUGHT IT SEEMED LIKE FEBRUARY TODAY...YOU WOULD BE ENTIRELY
CORRECT. IN FACT...HIGHS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERED
THE LONGEST...NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WERE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
30S...WHILE THE 40S WERE RELEGATED TO PITTSBURGH AND SOUTHWARD.
INDEED...THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY...NOT LATE APRIL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS DO CHANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VAST IMPROVEMENT AT
LEAST FROM A SKY-COVER PERSPECTIVE.

WHILE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT IN
THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WE WILL START TO SEE
500 HPA HEIGHTS RISING...AND LIKEWISE A STABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. BECAUSE OF HOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WORKING OUT WHEN OVERLAID WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS MEANS FROZEN HYDROMETEORS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO GENERATE AS THE UNSTABLE LAYER BEGINS TO FAIL TO INTERSECT THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING FROM ABOVE AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING AN END IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSIVELY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE START TO SCATTER
OUT STRATOCUMULUS AFTER A TIME ONCE THE MIXING OF DRY AIR INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700
HPA TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAKE SATURATING ANY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING RELATIVE TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A DRASTIC INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. THAT SAID...HIGHS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RULES THE ROOST
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SITES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO RAISE OFF THE GROUND...AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THOSE TWO
SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

FRIES/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA NEVER RECOVERED MUCH ABOVE -5 TO -9C
TODAY...AND LIKEWISE 700 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINED MIRED IN THE
NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE VERY EARLY ON. WHILE SOME
CLEARING HAD BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY DURING THE
DAY...THIS WAS FLEETING AS DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE QUICKLY TURNED THE
ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO A STRATOCUMULUS WASTELAND. IF YOU
THOUGHT IT SEEMED LIKE FEBRUARY TODAY...YOU WOULD BE ENTIRELY
CORRECT. IN FACT...HIGHS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERED
THE LONGEST...NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WERE GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
30S...WHILE THE 40S WERE RELEGATED TO PITTSBURGH AND SOUTHWARD.
INDEED...THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY...NOT LATE APRIL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINGER RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS DO CHANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VAST IMPROVEMENT AT
LEAST FROM A SKY-COVER PERSPECTIVE.

WHILE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT IN
THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WE WILL START TO SEE
500 HPA HEIGHTS RISING...AND LIKEWISE A STABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. BECAUSE OF HOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WORKING OUT WHEN OVERLAID WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS MEANS FROZEN HYDROMETEORS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO GENERATE AS THE UNSTABLE LAYER BEGINS TO FAIL TO INTERSECT THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING FROM ABOVE AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING AN END IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSIVELY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE START TO SCATTER
OUT STRATOCUMULUS AFTER A TIME ONCE THE MIXING OF DRY AIR INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700
HPA TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAKE SATURATING ANY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING RELATIVE TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A DRASTIC INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. THAT SAID...HIGHS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RULES THE ROOST
ACROSS THE REGION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...STRONG CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL BE SUPPLANTED BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LOW.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS REALIZED. AS A RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND IN
PRIME TERRITORY FOR A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OWING TO DEFORMATION
AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE RAPIDLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPELLING A RAPID END TO
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SEEM INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALTHOUGH A
SHARP NORTHERN PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST...IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS IN THE
SOUTH AND TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS IN THE NORTH...WHICH DEPICTS A
MILD WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND AND CLEARISH
SKY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT DURING THE NIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT COOLING LATER. IT IS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE THE TYPICAL
NORTHERN ZONES.

APART FROM THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME MAXIMA WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO
RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE GFS...UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL RISE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS...WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SITES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO RAISE OFF THE GROUND...AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THOSE TWO
SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

FRIES/KRAMAR



000
FXUS61 KRLX 231810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH






000
FXUS61 KILN 231721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750 MB AND 800
MB. THE RESULT IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF
FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 231721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750 MB AND 800
MB. THE RESULT IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF
FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 231721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750 MB AND 800
MB. THE RESULT IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF
FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 231721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750 MB AND 800
MB. THE RESULT IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF
FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 231721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750 MB AND 800
MB. THE RESULT IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF
FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231712
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231712
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231712
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231712
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....MOVES SLOWLY EAST. W-NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO A LOW POP IN THE SNOWBELT FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING SUSPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...EVEN IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KRLX 231611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS MIXING HAS
ACTED TO BRING DOWN THE MUCH DRIER AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON THE 12 UTC
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOT WENTIRELY SURE IF WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING...BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES
ARE ALREADY SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM
YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH
FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS MIXING HAS
ACTED TO BRING DOWN THE MUCH DRIER AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON THE 12 UTC
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOT WENTIRELY SURE IF WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING...BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES
ARE ALREADY SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM
YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH
FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231454
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1054 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. THESE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE MINIMAL MORNING
SUNSHINE TO FOSTER AN UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUCH THAT THE
AREAS WHICH HAD BEEN CLEAR HAVE NOW BASICALLY BECOME MAINLY
OVERCAST WITH STRATOCUMULUS BY THIS HOUR. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR LATE APRIL.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING...ALONG
WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A
COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR
ANYWHERE.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231454
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1054 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. THESE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE MINIMAL MORNING
SUNSHINE TO FOSTER AN UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUCH THAT THE
AREAS WHICH HAD BEEN CLEAR HAVE NOW BASICALLY BECOME MAINLY
OVERCAST WITH STRATOCUMULUS BY THIS HOUR. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR LATE APRIL.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING...ALONG
WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A
COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR
ANYWHERE.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 231431
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750
MB AND 800 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER
DEW POINTS. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THAT OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME
DRYING OF FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231431
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750
MB AND 800 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER
DEW POINTS. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THAT OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME
DRYING OF FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 231431
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750
MB AND 800 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER
DEW POINTS. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THAT OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME
DRYING OF FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231431
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 750
MB AND 800 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER
DEW POINTS. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THAT OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS STILL WET THERE WILL BE SOME
DRYING OF FUELS. SO THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231418
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1018 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BANDS OF SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY UNSTABLE SUB CLOUD
LAYER. REPORTS HAVE RANGED FROM ZERO TO LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES AT
CANADOHTA LAKE, PA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
GRASSY SURFACES WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME UPTICK IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SNOW BELT AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO
THE LOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH BURSTS OF
GRAUPEL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231418
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1018 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BANDS OF SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY UNSTABLE SUB CLOUD
LAYER. REPORTS HAVE RANGED FROM ZERO TO LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES AT
CANADOHTA LAKE, PA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
GRASSY SURFACES WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME UPTICK IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SNOW BELT AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO
THE LOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH BURSTS OF
GRAUPEL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE
STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR ANYWHERE. THAT
SAID...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DO SEEM LIKELY TO RULE THE ROOST AS
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
APRIL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE
STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR ANYWHERE. THAT
SAID...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DO SEEM LIKELY TO RULE THE ROOST AS
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
APRIL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE
STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR ANYWHERE. THAT
SAID...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DO SEEM LIKELY TO RULE THE ROOST AS
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
APRIL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE
STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR ANYWHERE. THAT
SAID...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DO SEEM LIKELY TO RULE THE ROOST AS
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
APRIL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE
STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR ANYWHERE. THAT
SAID...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DO SEEM LIKELY TO RULE THE ROOST AS
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
APRIL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUING
THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST WITH
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS SWAY OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF POSITIVE AREA BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF SAID ZONE...THE
STAGE IS SET AGAIN TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE BURLY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING...A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
MANAGE TO MUSTER A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COME
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNCING NATURE OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR ANYWHERE. THAT
SAID...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DO SEEM LIKELY TO RULE THE ROOST AS
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
APRIL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW
ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE FOR FOREST...CLARION...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH NO RAIN LOCALLY...BUT THE
GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET AND THE NAEFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MUCH CLOUD COVER WITH THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT FKL/DUJ WILL HAVE BOTH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 231206
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
806 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO FORECAST WITH STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 231206
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
806 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO FORECAST WITH STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231206
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
806 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO FORECAST WITH STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING UNDER THE
BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY CLEVELAND INTO TRUMBULL COUNTY. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR
A TAPER TO CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING/NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN
FACT SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ALTHOUGH
MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. DO BELIEVE
HOWEVER THAT INCREASING SS WILL BE THE TREND THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING UNDER THE
BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY CLEVELAND INTO TRUMBULL COUNTY. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR
A TAPER TO CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING/NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN
FACT SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ALTHOUGH
MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. DO BELIEVE
HOWEVER THAT INCREASING SS WILL BE THE TREND THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING UNDER THE
BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY CLEVELAND INTO TRUMBULL COUNTY. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR
A TAPER TO CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING/NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN
FACT SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ALTHOUGH
MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. DO BELIEVE
HOWEVER THAT INCREASING SS WILL BE THE TREND THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING UNDER THE
BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY CLEVELAND INTO TRUMBULL COUNTY. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR
A TAPER TO CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING/NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN
FACT SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ALTHOUGH
MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. DO BELIEVE
HOWEVER THAT INCREASING SS WILL BE THE TREND THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT TO FEW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE DAY THRU LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 231051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST
OHIO PROVIDES A CONTRAST THAT MAKES CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA SEEM PLEASANT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
CHILLY...AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUES
IN EFFECT. THE CURRENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE A VISUAL PROXY FOR THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...AND THOUGH SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ON KILN RADAR NEARING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OBS SHOW THESE TO BE CLOUDS AT 7KFT-8KFT. THOUGH
SOME VIRGA MAY OCCUR...AND A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

THE ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY APPEARS FAIRLY NEUTRAL...BUT AN
INCREASE IN SUN SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST VALUES (AROUND 50 IN THE NE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SW) ARE BASED IN PART ON A MIXING PROFILE FROM
THE NAM/GFS THROUGH 775MB. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...THICKER IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE AIR IS COOLER ALOFT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. THE NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY...AND WINDS AT 850MB/700MB
HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE NW...AND WILL NOT BE AS WELL-ALIGNED WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051-052-060.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST
OHIO PROVIDES A CONTRAST THAT MAKES CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA SEEM PLEASANT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
CHILLY...AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUES
IN EFFECT. THE CURRENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE A VISUAL PROXY FOR THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...AND THOUGH SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ON KILN RADAR NEARING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OBS SHOW THESE TO BE CLOUDS AT 7KFT-8KFT. THOUGH
SOME VIRGA MAY OCCUR...AND A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

THE ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY APPEARS FAIRLY NEUTRAL...BUT AN
INCREASE IN SUN SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST VALUES (AROUND 50 IN THE NE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SW) ARE BASED IN PART ON A MIXING PROFILE FROM
THE NAM/GFS THROUGH 775MB. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...THICKER IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE AIR IS COOLER ALOFT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. THE NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY...AND WINDS AT 850MB/700MB
HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE NW...AND WILL NOT BE AS WELL-ALIGNED WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051-052-060.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 231051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST
OHIO PROVIDES A CONTRAST THAT MAKES CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA SEEM PLEASANT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
CHILLY...AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUES
IN EFFECT. THE CURRENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE A VISUAL PROXY FOR THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...AND THOUGH SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ON KILN RADAR NEARING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OBS SHOW THESE TO BE CLOUDS AT 7KFT-8KFT. THOUGH
SOME VIRGA MAY OCCUR...AND A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

THE ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY APPEARS FAIRLY NEUTRAL...BUT AN
INCREASE IN SUN SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST VALUES (AROUND 50 IN THE NE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SW) ARE BASED IN PART ON A MIXING PROFILE FROM
THE NAM/GFS THROUGH 775MB. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...THICKER IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE AIR IS COOLER ALOFT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. THE NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY...AND WINDS AT 850MB/700MB
HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE NW...AND WILL NOT BE AS WELL-ALIGNED WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051-052-060.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST
OHIO PROVIDES A CONTRAST THAT MAKES CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA SEEM PLEASANT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
CHILLY...AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUES
IN EFFECT. THE CURRENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE A VISUAL PROXY FOR THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...AND THOUGH SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ON KILN RADAR NEARING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OBS SHOW THESE TO BE CLOUDS AT 7KFT-8KFT. THOUGH
SOME VIRGA MAY OCCUR...AND A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

THE ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY APPEARS FAIRLY NEUTRAL...BUT AN
INCREASE IN SUN SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST VALUES (AROUND 50 IN THE NE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SW) ARE BASED IN PART ON A MIXING PROFILE FROM
THE NAM/GFS THROUGH 775MB. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...THICKER IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE AIR IS COOLER ALOFT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. THE NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY...AND WINDS AT 850MB/700MB
HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE NW...AND WILL NOT BE AS WELL-ALIGNED WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051-052-060.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST
OHIO PROVIDES A CONTRAST THAT MAKES CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA SEEM PLEASANT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
CHILLY...AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUES
IN EFFECT. THE CURRENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE A VISUAL PROXY FOR THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...AND THOUGH SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ON KILN RADAR NEARING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OBS SHOW THESE TO BE CLOUDS AT 7KFT-8KFT. THOUGH
SOME VIRGA MAY OCCUR...AND A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

THE ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY APPEARS FAIRLY NEUTRAL...BUT AN
INCREASE IN SUN SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST VALUES (AROUND 50 IN THE NE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SW) ARE BASED IN PART ON A MIXING PROFILE FROM
THE NAM/GFS THROUGH 775MB. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...THICKER IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE AIR IS COOLER ALOFT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. THE NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY...AND WINDS AT 850MB/700MB
HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE NW...AND WILL NOT BE AS WELL-ALIGNED WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051-052-060.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KILN 231051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...AND FROST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST
OHIO PROVIDES A CONTRAST THAT MAKES CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA SEEM PLEASANT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
CHILLY...AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUES
IN EFFECT. THE CURRENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE A VISUAL PROXY FOR THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...AND THOUGH SOME LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ON KILN RADAR NEARING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OBS SHOW THESE TO BE CLOUDS AT 7KFT-8KFT. THOUGH
SOME VIRGA MAY OCCUR...AND A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY REACHING THE GROUND
IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

THE ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY APPEARS FAIRLY NEUTRAL...BUT AN
INCREASE IN SUN SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST VALUES (AROUND 50 IN THE NE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SW) ARE BASED IN PART ON A MIXING PROFILE FROM
THE NAM/GFS THROUGH 775MB. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...THICKER IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE AIR IS COOLER ALOFT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. THE NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY...AND WINDS AT 850MB/700MB
HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE NW...AND WILL NOT BE AS WELL-ALIGNED WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER
FAVORABLE...AS AN ELONGATED NNW-TO-SSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT (MAINLY ABOVE 850MB) WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AWAY...WHILE THE
AIR CLOSER TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNMODIFIED.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED PLACES WITH NO WIND) POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO OCCUR...THOUGH
ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THESE LEVELS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AND A
WELL-COLLABORATED FORECAST WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE.

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE COLDEST MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST...CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT...WITH MOISTURE ALSO MOVING
IN AND THICKENING UP THE CLOUDS IN THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE (ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY)...THEY WILL DO SO OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH WARMING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE GAINS ALOFT
ALONE (THROUGH MIXING) WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF
A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES THIS...IT WILL WEAKEN...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
850MB...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS UP A
SCENARIO WHERE WARMER AIR (AND FRONTAL FORCING) WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...DESPITE COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS HIGHEST AT THE ONSET OF
THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAY OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...IN PART DUE TO SLIGHTLY
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACKS. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MOSTLY KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY EVEN CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF THE CWA
BORDERS.

WITH RAIN OCCURRING (AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON
SATURDAY...AND IF ANYTHING THE GOING FORECAST (HIGH 40S TO HIGH
50S) COULD BE GENEROUS.

ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY...WITH COOL NNW FLOW ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
SEEMINGLY-PERPETUAL NORTHEASTERN-STATES UPPER LOW. THOUGH
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF
OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN
OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY
MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW
SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS
AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS
PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MAIN/NEW
BRUNSWICK MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCT TO BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051-052-060.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ070>072-
     077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING UNDER THE
BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY CLEVELAND INTO TRUMBULL COUNTY. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR
A TAPER TO CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING/NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN
FACT SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ALTHOUGH
MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. DO BELIEVE
HOWEVER THAT INCREASING SS WILL BE THE TREND THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH WILL BE COOL TODAY. EXPECTING NEAR 40
NORTHEAST AND MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COULD SEE A LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FAR
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP REACHES. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH QPF. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY. TEMPS
MODERATE SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAY WILL SHOW SMALL CHANGES AS
WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX SET UP JUST NE OF THE
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE
SNOWBELT MON INTO TUE.  SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOURS LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING WHEN TEMPS BELOW 40.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
THEN THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PROBABLY INCREASE THE CHC FOR RAIN ON WED. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DIVES.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER PATTERN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR SCT SHSN/RA GOING THRU THIS
EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE AREA THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN THE SHSN/RA WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS IFR POSSIBLE. CIGS OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BE
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WINDS WITH ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THEN
SOME DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCA GOING TODAY THEN
END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHTER FLOW LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE
OH VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL UP WINDS SOME MORE AND KEEP THEM UP INTO
MON AS NEXT BATCH OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 231041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING UNDER THE
BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY CLEVELAND INTO TRUMBULL COUNTY. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR
A TAPER TO CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING/NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN
FACT SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ALTHOUGH
MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. DO BELIEVE
HOWEVER THAT INCREASING SS WILL BE THE TREND THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INITIALLY A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN
ADDITION TO BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY INITIAL SUN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH ANY HEATING AND THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP THERE AS