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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020534
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
134 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Widespread clearing overnight as high pressure builds in from the
west. The water vapor image shows drying behind the exiting short
wave moving into New England. Winds will dissipate overnight but
believe the area will remain mixed enough to prevent complete
decoupling except sheltered areas. Have raised temps a deg or two
to account for this. The upstream cirrus will likely not arrive
until around daybreak. Have temps in the 50s with a few spots in
NW PA in the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR weather will prevail during the period.  Some patches of mid
level cigs remain across the area but these should give way to
high clouds on Saturday. N to NW flow under 10 knots will
continue.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Have allowed the small craft advisory to expire and have gone with
2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high
builds across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of
a west to southwest gradient on Saturday on the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kosarik/Oudeman




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020159
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Widespread clearing overnight as high pressure builds in from the
west. The water vapor image shows drying behind the exiting short
wave moving into New England. Winds will dissipate overnight but
believe the area will remain mixed enough to prevent complete
decoupling except sheltered areas. Have raised temps a deg or two
to account for this. The upstream cirrus will likely not arrive
until around daybreak. Have temps in the 50s with a few spots in
NW PA in the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primary cold front is already past the terminals...but a
secondary wind shift is sinking south across the lake and will
affect northeast OH in veering winds closer to north-northwest.
Gusts will subside near dark. Remaining cumulus will fade. Patchy
high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across inland northeast
Ohio and northwest PA for Saturday. High pressure builds overhead.
Light winds tomorrow.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Have allowed the small craft advisory to expire and have gone with
2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high
builds across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of
a west to southwest gradient on Saturday on the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik/Oudeman



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000
FXUS61 KILN 020154
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry
weather Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday
ahead of low pressure approaching from the the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal cumulus clouds have dissipated, leaving only a line of clouds
across northern Kentucky into southern Ohio. These clouds should
drop se while dissipating, leaving clear skies for the overnight.

With high pressure and drier air building in, temperatures are
expected to drop to the middle and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building southeast
across the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect a good amount of sunshine
early with an increase in mainly high level clouds through the day.
In CAA pattern 8H temperatures to drop to readings between 10 deg C
and 12 deg C by 18Z. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal
with highs ranging from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.

The flow backs westerly with the surface high shifting to our east
Saturday night. Weak isentropic lift develops into the southwest late
Saturday night ahead of s/w and associated sfc low. Will continue to
increase clouds with a chance of showers/thunderstorms into the
southwest toward sunrise Sunday. Lows to range from the upper 50s
north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will be extending into the ILN area Sunday ahead of low
pressure centered to the west. In a very moist airmass containing
around 2.25 inches of precipitable water, and with sounding profiles
showing near saturation through much of the troposphere, rain will
develop in isentropic lift along the front. This will be a slow
moving system, with the east-west oriented warm front nearly
parallel to the mid level flow, producing a prolonged period of rain
that could last through Sunday night into Monday. These factors
point to heavy rainfall, with precipitation amounts perhaps around 2
inches. This scenario could lead to flooding, and will continue to
mention in HWO, possibly leading up to watches and warnings as the
event unfolds. With models showing little to no surface based CAPE,
widespread thunderstorms are not expected.

As the low weakens to the west and the front sags south of the area,
widespread showers will end by Tuesday. However, mainly afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible in a very warm and humid airmass that
will be in place Tuesday through Friday.

Temperatures will be exhibiting a warming trend. Readings may be
limited to the 70s Sunday under widespread clouds and precipitation.
After a slight boost to around 80 on Monday, highs will continue to
increase, reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cu will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clear
skies overnight. A cirrus ceiling will work into the tafs around
sunrise Sunday on the zonal H5 flow. Clouds will slowly lower and
thicken as the day progresses, but VFR condition are expected
through the taf period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Sites




000
FXUS61 KCLE 020135
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Widespread clearing overnight as high pressure builds in from the
west. The water vapor image shows drying behind the exiting short
wave moving into New England. Winds will dissipate overnight but
believe the area will remain mixed enough to prevent complete
decoupling except sheltered areas. Have raised temps a deg or two
to account for this. The upstream cirrus will likely not arrive
until around daybreak. Have temps in the 50s with a few spots in
NW PA in the upper 40s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primary cold front is already past the terminals...but a
secondary wind shift is sinking south across the lake and will
affect northeast OH in veering winds closer to north-northwest.
Gusts will subside near dark. Remaining cumulus will fade. Patchy
high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across inland northeast
Ohio and northwest PA for Saturday. High pressure builds overhead.
Light winds tomorrow.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a small craft advisory for the east lakeshore. Winds and
waves are coming up quickly after the cold frontal passage. The
situation is marginal but given the quick increase in wind and
waves and the amount of potential holiday traffic, decided it was
better to be safe than sorry.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high builds
across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of a
west to southwest gradient on Saturday ion the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik



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000
FXUS61 KRLX 020046
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
846 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
845 pm update...Some very isolated showers out there this evening
as weak front pushes through the region. Have updated to reflect
current radar and trends.

445 pm update...No major changes needed at this time to the
forecast. Did lower PoP overnight as weak front coming through the
region may kick off a few isolated showers until we lose daytime
heating...then shower activity will cease after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few very isolated showers are passing through the region this
evening but at this time I do not think any of the terminals will
be affected. VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period.
However...some uncertainty whether or not we will see fog develop
in the valley locations. For now I have added MVFR visibilities at
CRW and HTS with IFR conditions at PKB and EKN due to fog...also
with the light northerly flow tonight BKW may also see some IFR
conditions with fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be thicker in some locations and also
timing of fog development is uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL/99
AVIATION...MPK



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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020041
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will end by tonight as a cold front crosses the
region. Dry and seasonal weather can be expected with high
pressure until the approach of low pressure late on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are progged to exit
the forecast area by early tonight as the cold front shifts east.
In the wake of the FROPA, subsidence and cold, dry advection
should drive temperature about 5 degrees under the averages
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Line of showers and thunderstorms coincident with a cold front
continues to move across the region this evening. Several
terminals received rain from these storms, so while drying
through the boundary layer anticipated, some MVFR fog may be
possible. Ultimately it will depend on how quickly we decouple and
dewpoint depressions, which should widen through the night. Made
mention of this threat although confidence is not high at this
time.

VFR conditions are anticipated Saturday under high pressure.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday passing low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020006
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 pm update...No major changes needed at this time to the
forecast. Did lower PoP overnight as weak front coming through the
region may kick off a few isolated showers until we lose daytime
heating...then shower activity will cease after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few very isolated showers are passing through the region this
evening but at this time I do not think any of the terminals will
be affected. VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period.
However...some uncertainty whether or not we will see fog develop
in the valley locations. For now I have added MVFR visibilities at
CRW and HTS with IFR conditions at PKB and EKN due to fog...also
with the light northerly flow tonight BKW may also see some IFR
conditions with fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be thicker in some locations and also
timing of fog development is uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL/99
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020006
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 pm update...No major changes needed at this time to the
forecast. Did lower PoP overnight as weak front coming through the
region may kick off a few isolated showers until we lose daytime
heating...then shower activity will cease after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few very isolated showers are passing through the region this
evening but at this time I do not think any of the terminals will
be affected. VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period.
However...some uncertainty whether or not we will see fog develop
in the valley locations. For now I have added MVFR visibilities at
CRW and HTS with IFR conditions at PKB and EKN due to fog...also
with the light northerly flow tonight BKW may also see some IFR
conditions with fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be thicker in some locations and also
timing of fog development is uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL/99
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012352
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany
a cold front across the region this afternoon. Dry and seasonal
weather can then be expected until the approach of low pressure
late on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Made adjustments to POPs given the latest radar trends. Previous
discussion follows.

A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will
complete passage over the Upper Ohio Region this evening. Limited
instability and transient upper support will continue to limit
precipitation coverage until the frontal passage eliminates the
chance this evening.

Subsidence and cold, dry advection should drive temperature about
5 degrees under the averages tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Line of showers and thunderstorms coincident with a cold front
continues to move across the region this evening. Several
terminals received rain from these storms, so while drying
through the boundary layer anticipated, some MVFR fog may be
possible. Ultimately it will depend on how quickly we decouple and
dewpoint depressions, which should widen through the night. Made
mention of this threat although confidence is not high at this
time.

VFR conditions are anticipated Saturday under high pressure.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday passing low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012337
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Secondary wind shift coming across the lake as noticeable by the
visible satellite. With the added moisture from the lake could see
some isolated showers on the immediate lakeshore over the next
hour or two. Otherwise drier air will continue to stream in and
reduce cloud cover this evening. Falling dewpoints will support
cooler temps overnight.

Prev Discussion...
Cold front has just about cleared the eastern County Warning Area
(CWA). All the showers/thunderstorms associated with the front
will clear the CWA by 430 pm so have gone with a dry forecast. As
high pressure builds across the area over night winds should
decouple allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s under a nearly
clear sky. A few locations across inland NW PA may dip into the
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primary cold front is already past the terminals...but a
secondary wind shift is sinking south across the lake and will
affect northeast OH in veering winds closer to north-northwest.
Gusts will subside near dark. Remaining cumulus will fade. Patchy
high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across inland northeast
Ohio and northwest PA for Saturday. High pressure builds overhead.
Light winds tomorrow.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a small craft advisory for the east lakeshore. Winds and
waves are coming up quickly after the cold frontal passage. The
situation is marginal but given the quick increase in wind and
waves and the amount of potential holiday traffic, decided it was
better to be safe than sorry.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high builds
across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of a
west to southwest gradient on Saturday ion the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012337
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Secondary wind shift coming across the lake as noticeable by the
visible satellite. With the added moisture from the lake could see
some isolated showers on the immediate lakeshore over the next
hour or two. Otherwise drier air will continue to stream in and
reduce cloud cover this evening. Falling dewpoints will support
cooler temps overnight.

Prev Discussion...
Cold front has just about cleared the eastern County Warning Area
(CWA). All the showers/thunderstorms associated with the front
will clear the CWA by 430 pm so have gone with a dry forecast. As
high pressure builds across the area over night winds should
decouple allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s under a nearly
clear sky. A few locations across inland NW PA may dip into the
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primary cold front is already past the terminals...but a
secondary wind shift is sinking south across the lake and will
affect northeast OH in veering winds closer to north-northwest.
Gusts will subside near dark. Remaining cumulus will fade. Patchy
high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across inland northeast
Ohio and northwest PA for Saturday. High pressure builds overhead.
Light winds tomorrow.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a small craft advisory for the east lakeshore. Winds and
waves are coming up quickly after the cold frontal passage. The
situation is marginal but given the quick increase in wind and
waves and the amount of potential holiday traffic, decided it was
better to be safe than sorry.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high builds
across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of a
west to southwest gradient on Saturday ion the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KILN 012335
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeast of the region this evening,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to come to an end. High pressure
will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday ahead of low pressure
approaching from the the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Upper low near James Bay with shortwave rotating around its base
through the Great Lakes early tonight. Marginal instby has
developed ahead of an associated cold front which will push
southeast of ILN/s counties early this evening. A few lingering
showers/thunderstorms will come to an end with the passage of this
front.

Northwest flow to develop in the wake of the shortwave with surface
high pressure nosing in overnight. Expect skies to become mostly
clear this evening with an increase in high level clouds late.

Drier air to advect in allowing temperatures to drop to lows in the
middle and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building southeast
across the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect a good amount of sunshine
early with an increase in mainly high level clouds through the day.
In CAA pattern 8H temperatures to drop to readings between 10 deg C
and 12 deg C by 18Z. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal
with highs ranging from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.

The flow backs westerly with the surface high shifting to our east
Saturday night. Weak isentropic lift develops into the southwest late
Saturday night ahead of s/w and associated sfc low. Will continue to
increase clouds with a chance of showers/thunderstorms into the
southwest toward sunrise Sunday. Lows to range from the upper 50s
north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will be extending into the ILN area Sunday ahead of low
pressure centered to the west. In a very moist airmass containing
around 2.25 inches of precipitable water, and with sounding profiles
showing near saturation through much of the troposphere, rain will
develop in isentropic lift along the front. This will be a slow
moving system, with the east-west oriented warm front nearly
parallel to the mid level flow, producing a prolonged period of rain
that could last through Sunday night into Monday. These factors
point to heavy rainfall, with precipitation amounts perhaps around 2
inches. This scenario could lead to flooding, and will continue to
mention in HWO, possibly leading up to watches and warnings as the
event unfolds. With models showing little to no surface based CAPE,
widespread thunderstorms are not expected.

As the low weakens to the west and the front sags south of the area,
widespread showers will end by Tuesday. However, mainly afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible in a very warm and humid airmass that
will be in place Tuesday through Friday.

Temperatures will be exhibiting a warming trend. Readings may be
limited to the 70s Sunday under widespread clouds and precipitation.
After a slight boost to around 80 on Monday, highs will continue to
increase, reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cu will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clear
skies overnight. A cirrus ceiling will work into the tafs around
sunrise Sunday on the zonal H5 flow. Clouds will slowly lower and
thicken as the day progresses, but VFR condition are expected
through the taf period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Sites




000
FXUS61 KCLE 012204
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
604 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Secondary wind shift coming across the lake as noticable by the
visible satellite. With the added moisture from the lake could see
some isolated showers on the immediate lakeshore over the next
hour or two. Otherwise drier air will continue to stream in and
reduce cloud cover this evening. Falling dewpoints will support
cooler temps overnight.

Prev Discussion...
Cold front has just about cleared the eastern County Warning Area
(CWA). All the showers/thunderstorms associated with the front
will clear the CWA by 430 pm so have gone with a dry forecast. As
high pressure builds across the area over night winds should
decouple allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s under a nearly
clear sky. A few locations across inland NW PA may dip into the
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The cold front will move east of KERI and KYNG by 1930Z or so.
Cumulus deck will raise from MVFR to VFR from west to east this
afternoon and dissipate this evening as high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. Gusty northwest winds behind the front
will become light northwest tonight into Saturday. VFR Saturday
with patchy high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across
inland northeast Ohio and northwest PA.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a small craft advisory for the east lakeshore. Winds and
waves are coming up quickly after the cold frontal passage. The
situation is marginal but given the quick increase in wind and
waves and the amount of potential holiday traffic, decided it was
better to be safe than sorry.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high builds
across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of a
west to southwest gradient on Saturday ion the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012123
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
523 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany
a cold front across the region this afternoon. Dry and seasonal
weather can then be expected until the approach of low pressure
late on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Made adjustments to POPs given the latest radar trends. Previous
discussion follows.

A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will
complete passage over the Upper Ohio Region this evening. Limited
instability and transient upper support will continue to limit
precipitation coverage until the frontal passage eliminates the
chance this evening.

Subsidence and cold, dry advection should drive temperature about
5 degrees under the averages tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Although one line of showers and isolated thunderstorms fell apart
as it moved across the forecast area, a second line of showers has
developed across northeastern Ohio. It appears that this may only
impact FKL/DUJ terminals, with the rest of the terminals remaining
dry through the afternoon hours. Some MVFR ceilings are also
expected at this terminals, looking at upstream observations.
After this line of showers departs, it appears likely that all
sites should be VFR through the TAF period. The one exception to
this could be some fog around dawn.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 012044
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
444 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 pm update...No major changes needed at this time to the
forecast. Did lower PoP overnight as weak front coming through the
region may kick off a few isolated showers until we lose daytime
heating...then shower activity will cease after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will produce brief periods of light rain this
afternoon. Figured MVFR conditions could develop under light rain.
Lightning detection shows no thunderstorms are present at this
moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Coded IFR visibilities at BKW as the flow turns northwest.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 012044
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
444 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 pm update...No major changes needed at this time to the
forecast. Did lower PoP overnight as weak front coming through the
region may kick off a few isolated showers until we lose daytime
heating...then shower activity will cease after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will produce brief periods of light rain this
afternoon. Figured MVFR conditions could develop under light rain.
Lightning detection shows no thunderstorms are present at this
moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Coded IFR visibilities at BKW as the flow turns northwest.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KILN 012001
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeast of the region this evening,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to come to an end. High pressure
will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday ahead of low pressure
approaching from the the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Upper low near James Bay with shortwave rotating around its base
through the Great Lakes early tonight. Marginal instby has
developed ahead of an associated cold front which will push
southeast of ILN/s counties early this evening. A few lingering
showers/thunderstorms will come to an end with the passage of this
front.

Northwest flow to develop in the wake of the shortwave with surface
high pressure nosing in overnight. Expect skies to become mostly
clear this evening with an increase in high level clouds late.

Drier air to advect in allowing temperatures to drop to lows in the
middle and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building southeast
across the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect a good amount of sunshine
early with an increase in mainly high level clouds through the day.
In CAA pattern 8H temperatures to drop to readings between 10 deg C
and 12 deg C by 18Z. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal
with highs ranging from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.

The flow backs westerly with the surface high shifting to our east
Saturday night. Weak isentropic lift develops into the southwest late
Saturday night ahead of s/w and associated sfc low. Will continue to
increase clouds with a chance of showers/thunderstorms into the
southwest toward sunrise Sunday. Lows to range from the upper 50s
north to the lower 60s south.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will be extending into the ILN area Sunday ahead of low
pressure centered to the west. In a very moist airmass containing
around 2.25 inches of precipitable water, and with sounding profiles
showing near saturation through much of the troposphere, rain will
develop in isentropic lift along the front. This will be a slow
moving system, with the east-west oriented warm front nearly
parallel to the mid level flow, producing a prolonged period of rain
that could last through Sunday night into Monday. These factors
point to heavy rainfall, with precipitation amounts perhaps around 2
inches. This scenario could lead to flooding, and will continue to
mention in HWO, possibly leading up to watches and warnings as the
event unfolds. With models showing little to no surface based CAPE,
widespread thunderstorms are not expected.

As the low weakens to the west and the front sags south of the area,
widespread showers will end by Tuesday. However, mainly afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible in a very warm and humid airmass that
will be in place Tuesday through Friday.

Temperatures will be exhibiting a warming trend. Readings may be
limited to the 70s Sunday under widespread clouds and precipitation.
After a slight boost to around 80 on Monday, highs will continue to
increase, reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Removing showers from tafs this afternoon and expect a brief
period of MVFR cigs to affect the tafs before clear skies on
northerly winds win out tonight. Some daytime fair wx cu may be
found tomorrow due to the continued push of cold air a few
thousand feet up. Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours
after any cu/sc clears up this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Franks




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011954
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cold front has just about cleared the eastern County Warning Area
(CWA). All the showers/thunderstorms associated with the front
will clear the CWA by 430 pm so have gone with a dry forecast. As
high pressure builds across the area over night winds should
decouple allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s under a nearly
clear sky. A few locations across inland NW PA may dip into the
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The cold front will move east of KERI and KYNG by 1930Z or so.
Cumulus deck will raise from MVFR to VFR from west to east this
afternoon and dissipate this evening as high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. Gusty northwest winds behind the front
will become light northwest tonight into Saturday. VFR Saturday
with patchy high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across
inland northeast Ohio and northwest PA.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a small craft advisory for the east lakeshore. Winds and
waves are coming up quickly after the cold frontal passage. The
situation is marginal but given the quick increase in wind and
waves and the amount of potential holiday traffic, decided it was
better to be safe than sorry.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high builds
across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of a
west to southwest gradient on Saturday ion the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011954
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast across the region tonight and
then persist into Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into
the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cold front has just about cleared the eastern County Warning Area
(CWA). All the showers/thunderstorms associated with the front
will clear the CWA by 430 pm so have gone with a dry forecast. As
high pressure builds across the area over night winds should
decouple allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s under a nearly
clear sky. A few locations across inland NW PA may dip into the
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control the weather across the region Saturday
into Sunday. However a warm front will be lurking across southern
Ohio Sunday night into Monday with a couple ripples of low
pressure moving eastward along it. The first passing across
southern Ohio early Monday with another following it for Monday
afternoon. Currently it appears that the track of the lows will
be far enough to the south to keep most of the area dry. The only
exception will be across the southern CWA, mainly near and south
of US 30. Will keep some low pops for this region for the
possibility of thunderstorms.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the short term. Warmer
Sunday into Monday for most locations. Highs should be around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS continues to spin up low pressure at the surface in response
to convective feedback from Monday and lingers the low through
Tuesday. Not ruling out a weak circulation near the warm front but it
will likely be weaker and farther south than depicted by the GFS.
There should be enough subsidence and stability on Tuesday for little
or no convection.

Not as much conviction as we go into the second half of the week.
The warm front over the Ohio valley will drift north and the ridge
aloft will build east. Would prefer to see more ridging aloft
rather than the relatively zonal flow mid and late week and will
include a small chance of thunderstorms each day. We may eventually
be able to pin down a higher or lower threat but will keep the
forecast general for now.

Temperatures will depend a lot on the amount of clouds and
showers/storms but the temperature trend will be up with upper 80s
likely later in the week. 90+ certainly within reach if we
were to be mostly dry with enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The cold front will move east of KERI and KYNG by 1930Z or so.
Cumulus deck will raise from MVFR to VFR from west to east this
afternoon and dissipate this evening as high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. Gusty northwest winds behind the front
will become light northwest tonight into Saturday. VFR Saturday
with patchy high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across
inland northeast Ohio and northwest PA.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a small craft advisory for the east lakeshore. Winds and
waves are coming up quickly after the cold frontal passage. The
situation is marginal but given the quick increase in wind and
waves and the amount of potential holiday traffic, decided it was
better to be safe than sorry.

Winds and waves will diminish overnight as the surface high builds
across the lower Great Lakes. There will still be enough of a
west to southwest gradient on Saturday ion the east half of the
lake that conditions will likely get choppy but not enough for a
small craft advisory. High pressure looks as if it may linger over
eastern Canada through early next week. The flow will come around
northeast but wind speeds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011929
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will produce brief periods of light rain this
afternoon. Figured MVFR conditions could develop under light rain.
Lightning detection shows no thunderstorms are present at this
moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Coded IFR visibilities at BKW as the flow turns northwest.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011929
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will produce brief periods of light rain this
afternoon. Figured MVFR conditions could develop under light rain.
Lightning detection shows no thunderstorms are present at this
moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Coded IFR visibilities at BKW as the flow turns northwest.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011906
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
306 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will produce brief periods of light rain this
afternoon. Figured MVFR conditions could develop under light rain.
Lightning detection shows no thunderstorms are present at this
moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Coded IFR visibilities at BKW as the flow turns northwest.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011845
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany
a cold front across the region this afternoon. Dry and seasonal
weather can then be expected until the approach of low pressure
late on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will
complete passage over the Upper Ohio Region this evening. Limited
instability and transient upper support will continue to limit
precipitation coverage until the frontal passage eliminates the
chance this evening.

Subsidence and cold, dry advection should drive temperature about
5 degrees under the averages tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Although one line of showers and isolated thunderstorms fell apart
as it moved across the forecast area, a second line of showers has
developed across northeastern Ohio. It appears that this may only
impact FKL/DUJ terminals, with the rest of the terminals remaining
dry through the afternoon hours. Some MVFR ceilings are also
expected at this terminals, looking at upstream observations.
After this line of showers departs, it appears likely that all
sites should be VFR through the TAF period. The one exception to
this could be some fog around dawn.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011845
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany
a cold front across the region this afternoon. Dry and seasonal
weather can then be expected until the approach of low pressure
late on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will
complete passage over the Upper Ohio Region this evening. Limited
instability and transient upper support will continue to limit
precipitation coverage until the frontal passage eliminates the
chance this evening.

Subsidence and cold, dry advection should drive temperature about
5 degrees under the averages tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Although one line of showers and isolated thunderstorms fell apart
as it moved across the forecast area, a second line of showers has
developed across northeastern Ohio. It appears that this may only
impact FKL/DUJ terminals, with the rest of the terminals remaining
dry through the afternoon hours. Some MVFR ceilings are also
expected at this terminals, looking at upstream observations.
After this line of showers departs, it appears likely that all
sites should be VFR through the TAF period. The one exception to
this could be some fog around dawn.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011808
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sent a quick update to adjusted and increased hourly PoPs
following recent radar images trend along a weak cold front. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion below...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited so thinking any shra/tsra would be
confined to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and
early evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will produce brief periods of light rain this
afternoon. Figured MVFR conditions could develop under light rain.
Lightning detection shows no thunderstorms are present at this
moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Coded IFR visibilities at BKW as the flow turns northwest.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011740
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front is moving through the central portion of the County
Warning Area (CWA). Showers were developing ahead of the boundary
closer to the OH/PA border. There is a chance that a couple of
these could become thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The 00Z
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The cold front will move east of KERI and KYNG by 1930Z or so.
Cumulus deck will raise from MVFR to VFR from west to east this
afternoon and dissipate this evening as high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. Gusty northwest winds behind the front
will become light northwest tonight into Saturday. VFR Saturday
with patchy high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across
inland northeast Ohio and northwest PA.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011740
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front is moving through the central portion of the County
Warning Area (CWA). Showers were developing ahead of the boundary
closer to the OH/PA border. There is a chance that a couple of
these could become thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The 00Z
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The cold front will move east of KERI and KYNG by 1930Z or so.
Cumulus deck will raise from MVFR to VFR from west to east this
afternoon and dissipate this evening as high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. Gusty northwest winds behind the front
will become light northwest tonight into Saturday. VFR Saturday
with patchy high clouds and some fair weather cumulus across
inland northeast Ohio and northwest PA.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011702
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
102 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front is moving through the central portion of the County
Warning Area (CWA). Showers were developing ahead of the boundary
closer to the OH/PA border. There is a chance that a couple of
these could become thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The 00Z
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Scattered rain showers with a few TSRA this morning as a cold
front...just into the Toledo area...moves across the forecast
area today. Expect front should be east of the forecast area by
the afternoon push.  Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011612
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1212 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany
a cold front across the region today. Dry and seasonal weather can
then be expected until the approach of low pressure late on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Changes for the midday update featured some timing adjustments to
POPS and clouds based on the radar, satellite, observation, and
high res model trends.

A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will complete
passage over the Upper Ohio Region this evening. Limited instability
and transient upper support will continue to limit precipitation
coverage until the frontal passage eliminates the chance this
evening.

Subsidence and cold, dry advection should drive temperature about
5 degrees under the averages tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected to be interrupted only by scattered convection
today as a shortwave trough/associated surface front cross the
region. A tempo MVFR mention was included for northern ports where
upper precip support progs are more favorable, but "vicinity" will
have to suffice elsewhere until precip placement is better
defined.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011612
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1212 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany
a cold front across the region today. Dry and seasonal weather can
then be expected until the approach of low pressure late on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Changes for the midday update featured some timing adjustments to
POPS and clouds based on the radar, satellite, observation, and
high res model trends.

A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will complete
passage over the Upper Ohio Region this evening. Limited instability
and transient upper support will continue to limit precipitation
coverage until the frontal passage eliminates the chance this
evening.

Subsidence and cold, dry advection should drive temperature about
5 degrees under the averages tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region on Sunday night with increasing deep moisture.
Still appears highest rain chances will be along and south of
interstate 70 on Monday as the initial system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week. POPS for that time frame were left near climo numbers.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected to be interrupted only by scattered convection
today as a shortwave trough/associated surface front cross the
region. A tempo MVFR mention was included for northern ports where
upper precip support progs are more favorable, but "vicinity" will
have to suffice elsewhere until precip placement is better
defined.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 011601
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1201 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will
build in for the weekend. Low pressure will track just south of
the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Thunderstorm activity in the line of showers has all but died out
over CWA and the region. Expect a stray strike to remain possible
for the next few hours but be the exception and not the rule in
the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Bumped up pops in the southeast
accordingly and removed them along and nw of the I-71 corridor. Cu
field upstream moving in is pretty broken and should limit any
strong daytime heating for the region. This cu should break up in
a rapid fashion this late afternoon and early evening in favor of
clear and pleasant conditions tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area through the period.
However, moisture will be streaming out ahead of a short wave
moving through the central Plains, with clouds in the upper
levels eventually developing lower with time, particularly
Saturday night into Sunday. Some showers may develop into
southwestern counties during Sunday. With clouds overrunning a
relatively cooler dome of high pressure, have leaned towards lower
guidance on Sunday. Otherwise, little change from MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short wave will track across the region early in the period. This
will induce a surface low that will track over the southern
counties or just south of there. Plume of 2 inches or more
precipitable water will spread in with this system and warm cloud
depths will increase to over 4 km. 00Z guidance suggests a small
low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the southern
counties late Sunday night into Monday morning. Little if any
instability is forecast, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder.
However, efficient rainfall processes could lead to quite a bit of
rainfall across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern
Ohio.

Additional energy coming in behind the initial short wave will
keep the threat of precipitation going Monday night into Tuesday
evening. Heavy rain will not be as much of a concern as deeper
moisture gets shunted eastward, but could have a better chance of
thunderstorms by then.

Mid level ridging will start to build in from the southwest which
will allow temperatures and humidity to increase during the latter
part of the week. However, being on the periphery of the ridge,
disturbances riding over the ridge may trigger some convection as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Removing showers from tafs this afternoon and expect a brief
period of MVFR cigs to affect the tafs before clear skies on
northerly winds win out tonight. Some daytime fair wx cu may be
found tomorrow due to the continued push of cold air a few
thousand feet up. Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours
after any cu/sc clears up this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431 CCA
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1031 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sent a quick update to adjusted and increased hourly PoPs
following recent radar images trend along a weak cold front. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion below...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited so thinking any shra/tsra would be
confined to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and
early evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra with
this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in the
TAF sites this far out as a result.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011422
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers arrives this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sent a quick update to adjusted and increased hourly PoPs
following recent radar images trend along a weak cold front. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion below...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited so thinking any shra/tsra would be
confined to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and
early evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra with
this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in the
TAF sites this far out as a result.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011400
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Line of showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, will move across the
eastern third of the County Warning Area (CWA) this morning. The
cold front is moving into NW OH as of 14Z and is expected to
continue a slow eastward movement through the day. There could be
just enough clearing and heating ahead of the front across the
east to allow a few more showers/isolated thunder to redevelop.
Not overly confident in the redevelopment but believe it is still
worth a mention.

previous discussion... Radar now showing a few showers over
Northwest Ohio. There hasn`t been much QPF so far which isn`t
surprising given surface dewpoints still no higher than the mid
50s. Not seeing any lightning further upstream anymore but there
are some strong showers just ahead of the surface cold front. This
feature will move across the local area by midday. Will go with
scattered showers and a slight mention of thunder through 18z or
so. Precip chances in the west will be over by midday but it will
take till late day for the east to dry out completely. It is
possible that some thunderstorms could develop in the east this
afternoon as the front slows. All in all...todays forecast will be
similar to the earlier package. As far as QPF goes...most of the
area will see only a few hundredths to a tenth of rainfall with up
to a quarter inch from KCLE east across NW PA. Guidance temps seem
reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The 00Z
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Scattered rain showers with a few TSRA this morning as a cold
front...just into the Toledo area...moves across the forecast
area today. Expect front should be east of the forecast area by
the afternoon push.  Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011400
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Line of showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, will move across the
eastern third of the County Warning Area (CWA) this morning. The
cold front is moving into NW OH as of 14Z and is expected to
continue a slow eastward movement through the day. There could be
just enough clearing and heating ahead of the front across the
east to allow a few more showers/isolated thunder to redevelop.
Not overly confident in the redevelopment but believe it is still
worth a mention.

previous discussion... Radar now showing a few showers over
Northwest Ohio. There hasn`t been much QPF so far which isn`t
surprising given surface dewpoints still no higher than the mid
50s. Not seeing any lightning further upstream anymore but there
are some strong showers just ahead of the surface cold front. This
feature will move across the local area by midday. Will go with
scattered showers and a slight mention of thunder through 18z or
so. Precip chances in the west will be over by midday but it will
take till late day for the east to dry out completely. It is
possible that some thunderstorms could develop in the east this
afternoon as the front slows. All in all...todays forecast will be
similar to the earlier package. As far as QPF goes...most of the
area will see only a few hundredths to a tenth of rainfall with up
to a quarter inch from KCLE east across NW PA. Guidance temps seem
reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The 00Z
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Scattered rain showers with a few TSRA this morning as a cold
front...just into the Toledo area...moves across the forecast
area today. Expect front should be east of the forecast area by
the afternoon push.  Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KILN 011204
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
804 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will
build in for the weekend. Low pressure will track just south of
the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated forecast to try to give a little timing to the line of
showers maintaining their cohesion and moving east. They are
expected to start having some thunder with the increased
insolation over the next few hours, particularly in the
southeast. Used nam CAPEs of >1000 J/kg for a chance of thunder in
the late morning and early afternoon, mainly affecting southern
and southeastern CWA.

Cold front from near Chicago to north of St Louis will move east
across the region today. Convection currently associated with the
front should weaken as it heads into the area. But additional
storms will likely develop in the southeast, where the boundary
will be moving through during peak heating. Forecast highs stayed
pretty close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area through the period.
However, moisture will be streaming out ahead of a short wave
moving through the central Plains, with clouds in the upper
levels eventually developing lower with time, particularly
Saturday night into Sunday. Some showers may develop into
southwestern counties during Sunday. With clouds overrunning a
relatively cooler dome of high pressure, have leaned towards lower
guidance on Sunday. Otherwise, little change from MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short wave will track across the region early in the period. This
will induce a surface low that will track over the southern
counties or just south of there. Plume of 2 inches or more
precipitable water will spread in with this system and warm cloud
depths will increase to over 4 km. 00Z guidance suggests a small
low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the southern
counties late Sunday night into Monday morning. Little if any
instability is forecast, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder.
However, efficient rainfall processes could lead to quite a bit of
rainfall across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern
Ohio.

Additional energy coming in behind the initial short wave will
keep the threat of precipitation going Monday night into Tuesday
evening. Heavy rain will not be as much of a concern as deeper
moisture gets shunted eastward, but could have a better chance of
thunderstorms by then.

Mid level ridging will start to build in from the southwest which
will allow temperatures and humidity to increase during the latter
part of the week. However, being on the periphery of the ridge,
disturbances riding over the ridge may trigger some convection as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move through the TAF sites today. Scattered
shower activity is expected with this feature. Have VCSH with
tempo SHRA in the TAFs. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder, however decided to leave out of the TAFs at this time due
to the expected limited coverage of thunder. VFR cloud cover will
remain through the afternoon and early evening hours before skies
begin to clear.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011146
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
746 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today.
Dry and seasonable warm weather can then be expected until the
approach of low pressure on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Changes for the post dawn update featured some timing adjustments
to POPS and clouds based on the radar, satellite, observation, and
high res model trends.

A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will
increase shower and storm chances today with passage over the
Upper Ohio Region. Limited moisture, instability, and transient
support are limiting POPs to the chance category.

The shortwave is projected east of the region by eve with corresponding
rapid POP reduction.

Clouds and scattered precip should hold temperatures at, or near
the averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building high pressure under low amplitude troughing aloft will
ensure a dry and seasonably cool/near average temperature weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave trough is projected to push a warm front
toward the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts eastward.

Projected ridging would increase temperature and humidity for late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected to be interrupted only by scattered convection
today as a shortwave trough/associated surface front cross the
region. A tempo MVFR mention was included for northern ports where
upper precip support progs are more favorable, but "vicinity" will
have to suffice elsewhere until precip placement is better
defined.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with Monday low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KCLE 011105
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar now showing a few showers over Northwest Ohio. There hasn`t
been much QPF so far which isn`t surprising given surface
dewpoints still no higher than the mid 50s. Not seeing any
lightning further upstream anymore but there are some strong
showers just ahead of the surface cold front. This feature will
move across the local area by midday. Will go with scattered
showers and a slight mention of thunder through 18z or so. Precip
chances in the west will be over by midday but it will take till
late day for the east to dry out completely. It is possible that
some thunderstorms could develop in the east this afternoon as the
front slows. All in all...todays forecast will be similar to the
earlier package. As far as QPF goes...most of the area will see
only a few hundredths to a tenth of rainfall with up to a quarter
inch from KCLE east across NW PA. Guidance temps seem reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The OOZ
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Scattered rain showers with a few TSRA this morning as a cold
front...just into the Toledo area...moves across the forecast
area today. Expect front should be east of the forecast area by
the afternoon push.  Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011047
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary with isolated thundershowers arrives late today.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited so thinking any shra/tsra would be
confined to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and
early evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra with
this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in the
TAF sites this far out as a result.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KILN 011037
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will
build in for the weekend. Low pressure will track just south of
the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front from near Chicago to north of St Louis will move east
across the region today. Convection currently associated with the
front should weaken as it heads into the area. But additional
storms will likely develop in the southeast, where the boundary
will be moving through during peak heating. Forecast highs stayed
pretty close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area through the period.
However, moisture will be streaming out ahead of a short wave
moving through the central Plains, with clouds in the upper
levels eventually developing lower with time, particularly
Saturday night into Sunday. Some showers may develop into
southwestern counties during Sunday. With clouds overrunning a
relatively cooler dome of high pressure, have leaned towards lower
guidance on Sunday. Otherwise, little change from MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short wave will track across the region early in the period. This
will induce a surface low that will track over the southern
counties or just south of there. Plume of 2 inches or more
precipitable water will spread in with this system and warm cloud
depths will increase to over 4 km. 00Z guidance suggests a small
low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the southern
counties late Sunday night into Monday morning. Little if any
instability is forecast, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder.
However, efficient rainfall processes could lead to quite a bit of
rainfall across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern
Ohio.

Additional energy coming in behind the initial short wave will
keep the threat of precipitation going Monday night into Tuesday
evening. Heavy rain will not be as much of a concern as deeper
moisture gets shunted eastward, but could have a better chance of
thunderstorms by then.

Mid level ridging will start to build in from the southwest which
will allow temperatures and humidity to increase during the latter
part of the week. However, being on the periphery of the ridge,
disturbances riding over the ridge may trigger some convection as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move through the TAF sites today. Scattered
shower activity is expected with this feature. Have VCSH with
tempo SHRA in the TAFs. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder, however decided to leave out of the TAFs at this time due
to the expected limited coverage of thunder. VFR cloud cover will
remain through the afternoon and early evening hours before skies
begin to clear.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011021
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary with isolated thundershowers arrives late today.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited and with much of the area somewhat
capped into this aftn...thinking any shra/tsra would be confined
to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and early
evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra with
this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in the
TAF sites this far out as a result.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010836
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary with isolated thundershowers arrives late today.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited and with much of the area somewhat
capped into this aftn...thinking any shra/tsra would be confined
to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and early
evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.

With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday.  Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.

As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.

The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some debris clouds in the form of mid/hi clouds over the area is
making for a difficult fog forecast thru the predawn. Still
thinking river valley fog forms over the next few hrs as these
clouds try to thin out. As such...have LIFR/VLIFR fog for most
sites by 09z with the exception of KBKW/KCKB. Any fog will lift by
1230Z.

A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra
with this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in
the TAF sites this far out as a result.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog may vary
thru the predawn this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 07/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KILN 010822
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will
build in for the weekend. Low pressure will track just south of
the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front from near Chicago to north of St Louis will move east
across the region today. Convection currently associated with the
front should weaken as it heads into the area. But additional
storms will likely develop in the southeast, where the boundary
will be moving through during peak heating. Forecast highs stayed
pretty close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area through the period.
However, moisture will be streaming out ahead of a short wave
moving through the central Plains, with clouds in the upper
levels eventually developing lower with time, particularly
Saturday night into Sunday. Some showers may develop into
southwestern counties during Sunday. With clouds overrunning a
relatively cooler dome of high pressure, have leaned towards lower
guidance on Sunday. Otherwise, little change from MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short wave will track across the region early in the period. This
will induce a surface low that will track over the southern
counties or just south of there. Plume of 2 inches or more
precipitable water will spread in with this system and warm cloud
depths will increase to over 4 km. 00Z guidance suggests a small
low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the southern
counties late Sunday night into Monday morning. Little if any
instability is forecast, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder.
However, efficient rainfall processes could lead to quite a bit of
rainfall across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern
Ohio.

Additional energy coming in behind the initial short wave will
keep the threat of precipitation going Monday night into Tuesday
evening. Heavy rain will not be as much of a concern as deeper
moisture gets shunted eastward, but could have a better chance of
thunderstorms by then.

Mid level ridging will start to build in from the southwest which
will allow temperatures and humidity to increase during the latter
part of the week. However, being on the periphery of the ridge,
disturbances riding over the ridge may trigger some convection as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period, however
VSBYs may be reduced briefly if a heavier shower moves over a TAF
site. A cold front will approach overnight and move through the
TAF sites during the day. Isolated to scattered shower activity
is expected to develop and handled this with VCSH and tempo
showers. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder during the
late morning and into the afternoon hours, however with isolated
nature of the thunder decided to leave out of the TAFs at this
time.

VFR cloud cover will increase overnight and remain across the area
through much of the day today. Skies will begin to clear out by
the evening hours.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010817
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today.
High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday
weekend. An approaching low pressure system will increase rain
chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will increase
shower and storm chances today, especially in the afternoon.
However, guidance continues to indicate limited moisture with the
passage of the trough and thus POPs remain in the chance category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will exit quickly with showers ending in the
southeast ridges this evening. Dry and mild high pressure will
then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period even as first high
clouds and then mid-cloud increase over all sites. A cold front
will cross the area on Friday with a few showers possible along
it. Saturation is lacking and instability is unimpressive, so TS
was not included in the forecasts, however the chance for one is
non-zero. VFR conditions should continue at most sites even in
cold advection in the wake of the front on Friday night. Fries

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 010720
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar now showing a few showers over Northwest Ohio. There hasn`t
been much QPF so far which isn`t surprising given surface
dewpoints still no higher than the mid 50s. Not seeing any
lightning further upstream anymore but there are some strong
showers just ahead of the surface cold front. This feature will
move across the local area by midday. Will go with scattered
showers and a slight mention of thunder through 18z or so. Precip
chances in the west will be over by midday but it will take till
late day for the east to dry out completely. It is possible that
some thunderstorms could develop in the east this afternoon as the
front slows. All in all...todays forecast will be similar to the
earlier package. As far as QPF goes...most of the area will see
only a few hundredths to a tenth of rainfall with up to a quarter
inch from KCLE east across NW PA. Guidance temps seem reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The OOZ
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front...currently stretching from low over lake Michigan
into NW Illinois...will move across the forecast area today.
Expect front into NW toward 12z...and should be east of the
forecast area by the afternoon push. Expect scattered rain showers
ahead of the front with some MVFR conditions. An isolated TSRA in
the east is possible this afternoon...but did not mention in the
tafs at this time. Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 010720
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today
dragging a cold front across the local area. High pressure will
build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar now showing a few showers over Northwest Ohio. There hasn`t
been much QPF so far which isn`t surprising given surface
dewpoints still no higher than the mid 50s. Not seeing any
lightning further upstream anymore but there are some strong
showers just ahead of the surface cold front. This feature will
move across the local area by midday. Will go with scattered
showers and a slight mention of thunder through 18z or so. Precip
chances in the west will be over by midday but it will take till
late day for the east to dry out completely. It is possible that
some thunderstorms could develop in the east this afternoon as the
front slows. All in all...todays forecast will be similar to the
earlier package. As far as QPF goes...most of the area will see
only a few hundredths to a tenth of rainfall with up to a quarter
inch from KCLE east across NW PA. Guidance temps seem reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will be quiet as high pressure builds back in from the
northwest. Still some question as to what the low moving up the
Ohio Valley on Monday is going to do. The GFS has trended further
south with this system and basically keeps the area dry. The OOZ
ECMWF is similar to it`s previous runs and tracks the low a little
further north. This brings the precip shield north across the
southern two thirds of the area on Monday. Given the ECMWF
consistency and the fact we already have precip in will not make
any significant changes at this time. Locations south of the U.S.
30 corridor will see the best chances for precip. Expect high
clouds to overspread the area by late Sunday with a lot of
cloudiness on Monday...especially in the south. Will hang on
lingering showers Monday night as the low finally moves off. Have
used a blend of guidance temps during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday...with a
second low pressure system tracking across the upper Ohio Valley.
Both models keep the low far enough south the the precip should
remain south of the forecast area.  The remainder of the extended
forecast shows a return of the hot and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front...currently stretching from low over lake Michigan
into NW Illinois...will move across the forecast area today.
Expect front into NW toward 12z...and should be east of the
forecast area by the afternoon push. Expect scattered rain showers
ahead of the front with some MVFR conditions. An isolated TSRA in
the east is possible this afternoon...but did not mention in the
tafs at this time. Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will gradually turn to the west to southwest and
increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon...as a cold front moves
across the lake.   It will be choppy tonight on the lake as the
winds turn to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Conditions should
remain just below small craft advisory conditions.   Conditions
improve Saturday night as high pressure builds over the lake.  Quiet
conditions continue through Sunday.  Winds turn to the northeast
Monday as a low pressure system tracks across the upper ohio valley.
Right now looks like winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots...but
could be a little higher depending upon the exact track of the
low.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010602
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
202 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary with isolated thundershowers arrives late today.
Mostly dry weekend. Frontal boundary with active weather next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited and with much of the area somewhat
capped into this aftn...thinking any shra/tsra would be confined
to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and early
evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some debris clouds in the form of mid/hi clouds over the area is
making for a difficult fog forecast thru the predawn. Still
thinking river valley fog forms over the next few hrs as these
clouds try to thin out. As such...have LIFR/VLIFR fog for most
sites by 09z with the exception of KBKW/KCKB. Any fog will lift by
1230Z.

A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra
with this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in
the TAF sites this far out as a result.

The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog may vary
thru the predawn this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010554 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
154 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today.
High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday
weekend. An approaching low pressure system will increase rain
chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Only minor changes to the overnight period. Updated cloud cover
and temperatures.

Shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will increase
shower and storm chances today, especially in the afternoon.
However, guidance continues to indicate limited moisture with the
passage of the trough and thus POPs remain in the chance category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will exit quickly with showers ending in the
southeast ridges this evening. Dry and mild high pressure will
then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period even as first high
clouds and then mid-cloud increase over all sites. A cold front
will cross the area on Friday with a few showers possible along
it. Saturation is lacking and instability is unimpressive, so TS
was not included in the forecasts, however the chance for one is
non-zero. VFR conditions should continue at most sites even in
cold advection in the wake of the front on Friday night. Fries

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 010553
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
overnight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into
the region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...forecast largely on track. Minor tweaks to sky cover and
temperatures capturing a quick early evening fall with breaks in
cirrus and mid cloud and very dry boundary layer. System later
tonight still on track and still prefer better coverage of showers
across northern areas closer to stronger flow/forcing/vertical
motion. Though recent HRRR runs showing a little more coverage
further south will need to be monitored for upcoming forecast
adjustments after midnight.

Previous discussion...A weak mid/upper level disturbance
will bring some high level clouds to the region through the
evening. Thereafter, attention will turn to a cold front pushing
southeast from the upper Mississippi River Valley/western Great
Lakes. Clouds will increase again ahead of this system. Deeper
moisture will increase as well. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will come late tonight across the northwest where
low level forcing and upper level lift will maximize. Chances will
then decrease moving southward ahead of the front across our
western CWFA. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period, however
VSBYs may be reduced briefly if a heavier shower moves over a TAF
site. A cold front will approach overnight and move through the
TAF sites during the day. Isolated to scattered shower activity
is expected to develop and handled this with VCSH and tempo
showers. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder during the
late morning and into the afternoon hours, however with isolated
nature of the thunder decided to leave out of the TAFs at this
time.

VFR cloud cover will increase overnight and remain across the area
through much of the day today. Skies will begin to clear out by
the evening hours.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Binau/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...Novak




000
FXUS61 KILN 010553
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
overnight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into
the region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...forecast largely on track. Minor tweaks to sky cover and
temperatures capturing a quick early evening fall with breaks in
cirrus and mid cloud and very dry boundary layer. System later
tonight still on track and still prefer better coverage of showers
across northern areas closer to stronger flow/forcing/vertical
motion. Though recent HRRR runs showing a little more coverage
further south will need to be monitored for upcoming forecast
adjustments after midnight.

Previous discussion...A weak mid/upper level disturbance
will bring some high level clouds to the region through the
evening. Thereafter, attention will turn to a cold front pushing
southeast from the upper Mississippi River Valley/western Great
Lakes. Clouds will increase again ahead of this system. Deeper
moisture will increase as well. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will come late tonight across the northwest where
low level forcing and upper level lift will maximize. Chances will
then decrease moving southward ahead of the front across our
western CWFA. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period, however
VSBYs may be reduced briefly if a heavier shower moves over a TAF
site. A cold front will approach overnight and move through the
TAF sites during the day. Isolated to scattered shower activity
is expected to develop and handled this with VCSH and tempo
showers. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder during the
late morning and into the afternoon hours, however with isolated
nature of the thunder decided to leave out of the TAFs at this
time.

VFR cloud cover will increase overnight and remain across the area
through much of the day today. Skies will begin to clear out by
the evening hours.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Binau/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...Novak




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010516
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today.
High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday
weekend. An approaching low pressure system will increase rain
chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Only minor changes to the overnight period. Updated cloud cover
and temperatures.

Shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will increase
shower and storm chances today, especially in the afternoon.
However, guidance continues to indicate limited moisture with the
passage of the trough and thus POPs remain in the chance category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will exit quickly with showers ending in the
southeast ridges this evening. Dry and mild high pressure will
then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period even as first high
clouds and then mid-cloud increase over all sites. A cold front
will cross the area on Friday with a few showers possible along
it. Saturation is lacking and instability is unimpressive, so TS
was not included in the forecasts, however the chance for one is
non-zero. VFR conditions should continue at most sites even in
cold advection in the wake of the front on Friday night. Fries

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 010501
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
101 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Have seen a slight increase dewpoints this evening, and with
increasing clouds from the west we can expect a warmer night with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Looking upstream we can see
some dissipating convection in Indiana. This could increase the
moisture profile, but is not expected to bring any precip in our
area overnight. The main chance for rain will come with the upper
level trough which is back near Lake Michigan. There will be an
increase in upper level support around 08/09Z starting in our
furthest western counties. Given the tight theta-e gradient it
will take some time for the precip to make it`s way to our eastern
counties. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop
along a line and move from west to east across the forecast area
mainly in Friday morning. The HRRR/RAP models have trended slower
with the convection. Thunder is possible given the upper level
forcing, low level convergence, and marginal elevated instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder Friday morning
will quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a
dry pleasant weekend.

Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. The front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.

High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. Dewpoints will
run about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
degrees.

The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.

After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.

Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front...currently stretching from low over lake Michigan
into NW Illinois...will move across the forecast area today.
Expect front into NW toward 12z...and should be east of the
forecast area by the afternoon push. Expect scattered rain showers
ahead of the front with some MVFR conditions. An isolated TSRA in
the east is possible this afternoon...but did not mention in the
tafs at this time. Gradual clearing from the NW tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jamison/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010212
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1012 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 pm update...Weather remains quiet this evening. Just updated
sky cover overnight to reflect low stratus and fog in the valleys.

325 pm update...Just made a quick update to add some slight chance
PoP across the mountains for this afternoon into early this
evening.  Other than that the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure with widespread VFR conditions are expected until
the early morning hours on Friday. Calm winds and decent
radiational cooling tonight should promote fog development once
again tonight in valley locations. However...the fog does not look
like it will be quite as dense and widespread as it was overnight
last night.

LIFR visibilities or ceilings are possible with greatest
confidence of occurrence at EKN and PKB. Any overnight fog will
slowly dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on later on Friday...but
it should just be getting to PKB around 22Z or 23Z so I left it
out of this round of TAFs as I`m not confident enough that showers
will get there before 00Z Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog may vary
Friday morning. High clouds could reduce radiational cooling a bit
and damper fog development.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KILN 010156
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
956 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into the
region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Update...forecast largely on track. Minor tweaks to sky cover and
temperatures capturing a quick early evening fall with breaks in
cirrus and mid cloud and very dry boundary layer. System later
tonight still on track and still prefer better coverage of showers
across northern areas closer to stronger flow/forcing/vertical
motion. Though recent HRRR runs showing a little more coverage
further south will need to be monitored for upcoming forecast
adjustments after midnight.

Previous discussion...A weak mid/upper level disturbance
will bring some high level clouds to the region through the
evening. Thereafter, attention will turn to a cold front pushing
southeast from the upper Mississippi River Valley/western Great
Lakes. Clouds will increase again ahead of this system. Deeper
moisture will increase as well. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will come late tonight across the northwest where
low level forcing and upper level lift will maximize. Chances will
then decrease moving southward ahead of the front across our
western CWFA. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Largely VFR conditions expected across the sites over the next 24
hours. Potent shortwave trough to shift through the Great Lakes
toward 12Z. There may be some isolated/scattered light warm
advection driven showers across the northern sites as early as 07Z
or so...but expect the better chances of rain to come along/ahead
of morning frontal passage. Scattered/broken band of showers to
cross especially the northern TAF sites in this time period. Light
southerly flow will slowly veer and increase to
southwesterly...turning more abruptly to northwesterly and perhaps
a little gusty in the afternoon as vfr cigs become scattered
through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Binau/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...Binau




000
FXUS61 KCLE 010124
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
924 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have seen a slight increase dewpoints this evening, and with
increasing clouds from the west we can expect a warmer night with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Looking upstream we can see
some dissipating convection in Indiana. This could increase the
moisture profile, but is not expected to bring any precip in our
area overnight. The main chance for rain will come with the upper
level trough which is back near Lake Michigan. There will be an
increase in upper level support around 08/09Z starting in our
furthest western counties. Given the tight theta-e gradient it
will take some time for the precip to make it`s way to our eastern
counties. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop
along a line and move from west to east across the forecast area
mainly in Friday morning. The HRRR/RAP models have trended slower
with the convection. Thunder is possible given the upper level
forcing, low level convergence, and marginal elevated instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder Friday morning
will quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a
dry pleasant weekend.

Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. The front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.

High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. Dewpoints will
run about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
degrees.

The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.

After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.

Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Clouds will gradually increase and lower from west to east tonight
but should still stay at vfr levels thru the end of the night. A
band of shra and possible tsra are expected to push east across the
area from about 09z thru 18z. Where the rain does occur...the rain
should be brief so only expect briefly lowered cigs or vsbys. Due to
the brevity and limited coverage of the rain, will continue to just
use vcsh in the tafs for the possibility. Any lowered conditions
during the rain and associated cold front will improve west to east
from late morning thru the afternoon.

Mainly s to sw winds of 10 knots or less tonight will turn to the
west at 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the cold front tomorrow.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jamison/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010054
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
854 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front
increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry
and mild weather through the holiday weekend. An approaching low
pressure system will increase rain chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue dry and mild conditions
tonight. Moisture will slowly increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and thus cloud coverage will increase as Friday
progresses.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially in the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture with the passage of the trough and thus
POPs remain in the chance category. Warm advection ahead of the
front will be tempered by clouds and showers, keeping high
temperatures from the mid 70s far north to lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will quickly exit quickly with showers ending in
the southeast ridges by Friday evening. Dry and mild high
pressure will then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR overnight as high pressure continues to transition over the
area. A front will cross tomorrow with increased southwesterly
winds and scattered showers and potentially thunderstorms
developing during the late morning and early afternoon. There is
some uncertainty on whether it will be unstable enough for TSRA
at this time so have left only mention of shra ahead and along the
front for now.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010048
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
848 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front
increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry
and mild weather through the holiday weekend. An approaching low
pressure system will increase rain chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue dry and mild conditions
overnight. Moisture will slowly increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and thus cloud coverage will increase as Friday
progresses.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially in the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture with the passage of the trough.
Therefore, POPs remain in the chance category. Warm advection
ahead of the front will be tempered by clouds and showers, keeping
high temperatures from the mid 70s far north to lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will quickly exit quickly with showers ending in
the southeast ridges by Friday evening. Dry and mild high
pressure will then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010002
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
802 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 pm update...Just made a quick update to add some slight chance
PoP across the mountains for this afternoon into early this
evening.  Other than that the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure with widespread VFR conditions are expected until
the early morning hours on Friday. Calm winds and decent
radiational cooling tonight should promote fog development once
again tonight in valley locations. However...the fog does not look
like it will be quite as dense and widespread as it was overnight
last night.

LIFR visibilities or ceilings are possible with greatest
confidence of occurrence at EKN and PKB. Any overnight fog will
slowly dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on later on Friday...but
it should just be getting to PKB around 22Z or 23Z so I left it
out of this round of TAFs as I`m not confident enough that showers
will get there before 00Z Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog may vary
Friday morning. High clouds could reduce radiational cooling a bit
and damper fog development.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010002
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
802 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 pm update...Just made a quick update to add some slight chance
PoP across the mountains for this afternoon into early this
evening.  Other than that the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure with widespread VFR conditions are expected until
the early morning hours on Friday. Calm winds and decent
radiational cooling tonight should promote fog development once
again tonight in valley locations. However...the fog does not look
like it will be quite as dense and widespread as it was overnight
last night.

LIFR visibilities or ceilings are possible with greatest
confidence of occurrence at EKN and PKB. Any overnight fog will
slowly dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on later on Friday...but
it should just be getting to PKB around 22Z or 23Z so I left it
out of this round of TAFs as I`m not confident enough that showers
will get there before 00Z Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog may vary
Friday morning. High clouds could reduce radiational cooling a bit
and damper fog development.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KILN 302355
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
755 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into the
region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak mid/upper level disturbance will bring some high level
clouds to the region through the evening. Thereafter, attention
will turn to a cold front pushing southeast from the upper
Mississippi River Valley/western Great Lakes. Clouds will increase
again ahead of this system. Deeper moisture will increase as well.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come late
tonight across the northwest where low level forcing and upper
level lift will maximize. Chances will then decrease moving
southward ahead of the front across our western CWFA. Lows will
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Largely VFR conditions expected across the sites over the next 24
hours. Potent shortwave trough to shift through the Great Lakes
toward 12Z. There may be some isolated/scattered light warm
advection driven showers across the northern sites as early as 07Z
or so...but expect the better chances of rain to come along/ahead
of morning frontal passage. Scattered/broken band of showers to
cross especially the northern TAF sites in this time period. Light
southerly flow will slowly veer and increase to
southwesterly...turning more abruptly to northwesterly and perhaps
a little gusty in the afternoon as vfr cigs become scattered
through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...Binau




000
FXUS61 KILN 302355
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
755 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into the
region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak mid/upper level disturbance will bring some high level
clouds to the region through the evening. Thereafter, attention
will turn to a cold front pushing southeast from the upper
Mississippi River Valley/western Great Lakes. Clouds will increase
again ahead of this system. Deeper moisture will increase as well.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come late
tonight across the northwest where low level forcing and upper
level lift will maximize. Chances will then decrease moving
southward ahead of the front across our western CWFA. Lows will
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Largely VFR conditions expected across the sites over the next 24
hours. Potent shortwave trough to shift through the Great Lakes
toward 12Z. There may be some isolated/scattered light warm
advection driven showers across the northern sites as early as 07Z
or so...but expect the better chances of rain to come along/ahead
of morning frontal passage. Scattered/broken band of showers to
cross especially the northern TAF sites in this time period. Light
southerly flow will slowly veer and increase to
southwesterly...turning more abruptly to northwesterly and perhaps
a little gusty in the afternoon as vfr cigs become scattered
through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...Binau




000
FXUS61 KCLE 302301
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have refined the timing of tonight`s rain chances to around 08Z and
mainly for the far west column of counties. Areas east will
likely remain dry until Friday morning. Have increased clouds in
the west in association with the debris clouds advecting in this
evening. Temperatures will be warmer tonight given the cloud
cover, especially in the western half.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder friday morning will
quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a dry
pleasant weekend.

Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. the front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.

High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. dewpoints will run
about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
degrees.

The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.

After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.

Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Clouds will gradually increase and lower from west to east tonight
but should still stay at vfr levels thru the end of the night. A
band of shra and possible tsra are expected to push east across the
area from about 09z thru 18z. Where the rain does occur...the rain
should be brief so only expect briefly lowered cigs or vsbys. Due to
the brevity and limited coverage of the rain, will continue to just
use vcsh in the tafs for the possibility. Any lowered conditions
during the rain and associated cold front will improve west to east
from late morning thru the afternoon.

Mainly s to sw winds of 10 knots or less tonight will turn to the
west at 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the cold front tomorrow.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jamison/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302202
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
602 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front
increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry
and mild weather through the holiday weekend. An approaching low
pressure system will increase rain chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue dry and mild conditions
tonight. Moisture will slowly increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and thus cloud coverage will increase as Friday
progresses.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially in the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture with the passage of the trough and thus
POPs remain in the chance category. Warm advection ahead of the
front will be tempered by clouds and showers, keeping high
temperatures from the mid 70s far north to lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will quickly exit quickly with showers ending in
the southeast ridges by Friday evening. Dry and mild high
pressure will then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 302131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
531 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have refined the timing of tonights rain chances to around 08Z and
mainly for the far west column of counties. Areas east will
likely remain dry until Friday morning. Have increased clouds in
the west in association with the debris clouds advecting in this
evening. Temperatures will be warmer tonight given the cloud
cover, especially in the western half.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder friday morning will
quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a dry
pleasant weekend.

Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. the front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.

High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. dewpoints will run
about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
degrees.

The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.

After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.

Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure
over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax
this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a
cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will
likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance
for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity"
in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage.
Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is
low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a
couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the
area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jamison/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KCLE 302131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
531 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have refined the timing of tonights rain chances to around 08Z and
mainly for the far west column of counties. Areas east will
likely remain dry until Friday morning. Have increased clouds in
the west in association with the debris clouds advecting in this
evening. Temperatures will be warmer tonight given the cloud
cover, especially in the western half.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder friday morning will
quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a dry
pleasant weekend.

Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. the front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.

High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. dewpoints will run
about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
degrees.

The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.

After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.

Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure
over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax
this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a
cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will
likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance
for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity"
in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage.
Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is
low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a
couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the
area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jamison/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KILN 302029
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
429 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into the
region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak mid/upper level disturbance will bring some high level
clouds to the region through the evening. Thereafter, attention
will turn to a cold front pushing southeast from the upper
Mississippi River Valley/western Great Lakes. Clouds will increase
again ahead of this system. Deeper moisture will increase as well.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come late
tonight across the northwest where low level forcing and upper
level lift will maximize. Chances will then decrease moving
southward ahead of the front across our western CWFA. Lows will
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Few-sct cu across the area this afternoon will dissipate through
late afternoon as some mid and high level clouds begin to push in
from the west. This is ahead of a mid level short wave that
will rotate down across the southern Great Lakes later tonight
into Friday morning. Higher res models are showing a weakening
area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature
moving down toward the TAF sites through mid morning on Friday.
Given the weakening trend and the fact that this is an
unfavorable time of day, will just allow for a few showers at this
point to cover the threat. Conditions will generally remain VFR
through the period although cigs and vsbys could briefly drop down
into MVFR with any remnant activity Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 302029
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
429 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build back into the
region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak mid/upper level disturbance will bring some high level
clouds to the region through the evening. Thereafter, attention
will turn to a cold front pushing southeast from the upper
Mississippi River Valley/western Great Lakes. Clouds will increase
again ahead of this system. Deeper moisture will increase as well.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come late
tonight across the northwest where low level forcing and upper
level lift will maximize. Chances will then decrease moving
southward ahead of the front across our western CWFA. Lows will
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will move slowly southeast through the remainder of the
region on Friday. Best upper level lift will move off to the
northeast as associated mid level trough pivots northeast. This
will leave the cold front with weak lift as it continues
southeast. Will continue with chance pops central Ohio with slight
chance elsewhere along and ahead of the front. Skies will be
mostly cloudy at first, then partly cloudy east with some clearing
northwest during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

For Friday night, high pressure will begin to build back into the
region. There could be a lingering shower/storm early Friday
evening in our far southeast, otherwise, skies will become mostly
clear. It will be cooler and drier with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure initially centered over Illinois Saturday morning will
build into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, providing a
period of cooler than normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Models show a decent amount of upper level moisture streaming in
from the west (especially across our south), so have gone with
partly cloudy sky cover.

Isentropic lift and some midlevel energy will provide an increasing
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night, especially across our
south and west. Looking at instability fields (MUCAPE, LI, etc.),
there is hardly any instability to be found over the region with the
surface high still centered over the lower Great Lakes. Have
introduced a slight chance of thunder beginning midday, but not
overly sold on thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Instability will
increase across our south Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
lifts into the region.

A midlevel shortwave will induce lee cyclogenesis at the surface
early Sunday. The 30.12Z GFS took a significant southward shift and
is also not as wound up as it was in previous runs. This brings the
GFS closer in line to the ECMWF. The GFS midlevel shortwave remains
more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian, and the GFS also still
retains a weak upper cutoff low. The 30.12Z Canadian is still taking
a further north track, so have gone with more of a blend between the
GFS/ECMWF. This system will approach the Ohio Valley early Monday,
with return flow out ahead of the system drawing in an impressive
moisture field. GFS PWATs increase to over 2 inches on Monday south
of I-70, which is around 2 to 3 sigma above normal. Moisture
transport ahead of the low will be weakening as the low approaches
during the day, but it will still be decently strong. With favorable
warm cloud depths and nearly saturated columns through 200 mb,
expect efficient rainfall with showers and thunderstorms that move
through the area from Independence Day through Tuesday morning. Very
low confidence in total rainfall from this system at this time with
considerable spread among GEFS QPF plumes. Mean QPF ranges from 2 to
2.5 inches across our south, where the GFS/ECMWF place the heavier
QPF footprint. Will highlight potential for prolonged heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding in HWO.

After this system, fairly quiet weather through the end of the
extended period. Temperatures will return back to near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Few-sct cu across the area this afternoon will dissipate through
late afternoon as some mid and high level clouds begin to push in
from the west. This is ahead of a mid level short wave that
will rotate down across the southern Great Lakes later tonight
into Friday morning. Higher res models are showing a weakening
area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature
moving down toward the TAF sites through mid morning on Friday.
Given the weakening trend and the fact that this is an
unfavorable time of day, will just allow for a few showers at this
point to cover the threat. Conditions will generally remain VFR
through the period although cigs and vsbys could briefly drop down
into MVFR with any remnant activity Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KCLE 301953
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east
coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi
Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build southeast across the region Saturday and Sunday. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move into the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Current forecast for tonight is reasonable and only minor changes
are planned as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Agree
fully with the earlier thinking about limited moisture return
with the expectation of only a few rumbles of thunder in the west.
have used the hrrr model for timing showers with some slight
changes. Increasing clouds and moisture will help keep
temperatures warmer than recently.




&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder friday morning will
quickly exit the region during the afternoon and allow for a dry
pleasant weekend.

Scattered showers with perhaps some thunder can be expected
Friday morning as the cold front crosses the region. the front
will shift south of the region by early afternoon and be followed
by rapid clearing. QPF will be low and generally less than a
quarter of an inch.

High pressure will build southeast over the region for the weekend
with cooler and less humid conditions expected. dewpoints will run
about 10 degrees cooler than the seasonal average around 60
degrees.

The forecast for sunday night will feature increasing clouds and
moisture as diffuse low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley moves
eastward. Confidence is low in the position and track of this
feature into Monday as the GFS has varied greatly from run to run
in the northward movement of the precipitation. For now will
include a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight in the southwest counties from FDY to MNN to Knox County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is still uncertainty on the Fourth of July forecast. The models
continue to forecast thunderstorms along the warm front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some of the models continue to develop a
surface low which seems too deep and is probably contaminated by
convective feedback and travels too far north and east. Prefer to
keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern counties although there is obviously low
confidence in the forecast.

After Monday, the forecast gets even more muddled. The warm front
will try to wander northeast and nearly impossible to predict when
and where there may be additional thunderstorms. As much as I do not
like to do it, will keep a low pop chance in the forecast each day.

Temperatures on the fourth of July may hold around 80, especially if
there is enough debris clouds. It will then warm into the mid and
upper 80s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure
over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax
this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a
cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will
likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance
for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity"
in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage.
Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is
low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a
couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the
area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain light on Lake Erie this evening as high pressure
drifts away. A cold front will cross Lake Erie Friday morning. The
south wind will become northwest and the wind should freshen pretty
quickly after frontal passage. Winds and waves will end up near the
threshold for small craft advisory by Friday late afternoon and
evening, especially on the east half of the lake. The northwest wind
may remain strong enough for a choppy lake on Saturday east of
Fairport Harbor but winds and waves should calm down on the
western basin on Saturday and the entire lake should be quiet on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes. The
flow should veer more easterly by Monday as high pressure moves east
but winds should remain relatively light.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301927
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
327 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 pm update...Just made a quick update to add some slight chance
PoP across the mountains for this afternoon into early this
evening.  Other than that the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC high pressure remains in control today with mostly sunny
skies and weak flow. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
through at least 07Z.

Tonight, expect radiational cooling to take place under mostly
clear skies and weak flow. Conditions will deteriorate to LIFR
visibilities or ceilings overnight. Any overnight fog will slowly
dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of dense valley fog may
vary Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight before rain
chances increase on Friday, followed by dry high pressure for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild conditions into the
overnight. As a shortwave trough approaches later tonight, an
increase in clouds will begin before sunrise.

That trough and an associated cold front will bring increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances as Friday progresses, but with
limited moisture POPs remain in the chance category. Warm
advection ahead of the front will be tempered by clouds and
showers, keeping high temperatures from the mid 70s far north to
lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
System will exit quickly friday evening with showers ending in
the southeast ridges. Dry and mild high pressure will then
dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight before rain
chances increase on Friday, followed by dry high pressure for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild conditions into the
overnight. As a shortwave trough approaches later tonight, an
increase in clouds will begin before sunrise.

That trough and an associated cold front will bring increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances as Friday progresses, but with
limited moisture POPs remain in the chance category. Warm
advection ahead of the front will be tempered by clouds and
showers, keeping high temperatures from the mid 70s far north to
lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
System will exit quickly friday evening with showers ending in
the southeast ridges. Dry and mild high pressure will then
dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301801
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
201 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC high pressure remains in control today with mostly sunny
skies and weak flow. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
through at least 07Z.

Tonight, expect radiational cooling to take place under mostly
clear skies and weak flow. Conditions will deteriorate to LIFR
visibilities or ceilings overnight. Any overnight fog will slowly
dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of dense valley fog may
vary Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301801
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
201 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC high pressure remains in control today with mostly sunny
skies and weak flow. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
through at least 07Z.

Tonight, expect radiational cooling to take place under mostly
clear skies and weak flow. Conditions will deteriorate to LIFR
visibilities or ceilings overnight. Any overnight fog will slowly
dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of dense valley fog may
vary Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KCLE 301747
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes are planned for the afternoon forecast. High
temperatures were raised slightly and cloud cover was lowered just
a tad. Excellent drying conditions prevail with the large
temperature dewpoint spread along with intense June sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue into tonight with high pressure
over the Ohio Valley. Lake breezes at KCLE and KERI will relax
this evening and the flow will come around light south ahead of a
cold front. The front should reach KTOL around 12Z-13Z. There will
likely be weakening showers with the front but not a big chance
for reduced ceilings and visibilities. Forecast "showers vicinity"
in the TAF forecasts Friday morning with the frontal passage.
Cannot rule out thunder but the probability at any given site is
low. Patchy MVFR ceilings could develop behind the front for a
couple of hours. Drier air and VFR conditions will push across the
area Friday afternoon with winds a bit gusty from the northwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon.  Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon.   North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria.  High pressure builds in again Saturday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KILN 301738
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will washout across the area today as a
weak upper trough swings into the area. A cold front will then
move across the region on Friday, bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure will build back into the region
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
Some strato-cu have developed again this morning with mostly
light to calm winds across the region. This is thanks to surface
high pressure being centered directly overhead. Temperatures will
be a couple of degrees warmer today than they were yesterday as
the upper level trough begins to modulate allowing heights and 850
mb temperatures to recover a bit. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses rise to
around 1400 m while 850 mb temperatures are forecasted to be
around 12 or 13 degrees C. These slightly higher values support
high temperatures in the lower 80s. During the afternoon today am
expecting a few cu along with some passing cirrus as shown on RAP/
GFS RH fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This evening into Friday morning a piece of energy rotating around
an upper level low in Ontario will dig south into the upper
midwest and eventually rotate across central Ohio near sunrise
Friday morning. Friday evening the trough axis will be east of the
area and drag a surface cold front through the CWA.

Locally, this means clouds will return to the forecast area very
early Friday morning as the trough axis approaches from the west.
A pre-frontal trough will then swing west to east across the area
just behind the upper level trough axis. Latest suite of high res
models (NMM and ARW) shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
early Friday morning along the western border of Michigan/ Indiana
quickly weakening as they head east. PWATs ahead of the pre-frontal
trough will be around 1.3" and is only slightly above average for
this time of year. Forecast soundings on the NAM and GFS are
unimpressive showing very little instability with neither ever
fully saturating. The better upper level support also remains
north of the area. Given the lack of instability, average
moisture, and below average upper level support chance PoPs across
the north and slight chance across the south seems sufficient for
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the surface cold front will enter
our northwestern zones and push through the CWA Friday evening.
The NMM and NAM then ignite showers and thunderstorms along the
front. The GFS/ ARW/ ECMWF and CMC all show very little in the way
of precip along the front. By the time the front moves through the
area all of the PVA is gone and the area begins to fall into the
convergent side of the trough axis. Also shown in forecast
soundings and RH fields is a slug of 500mb dry air overtaking the
surface cold front. This is clearly depicted on the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF. Layer average RHs even fall below 10% at times. Forecast
soundings for Friday afternoon do have some instability but the
CAPE is skinny. Due to the skinny CAPE and extremely low RH in the
700 to 500mb layer think the NMM and NAM are overdone with the
convection along the front. Have kept the forecast as is showing
mostly a dry frontal passage.

Friday night into Saturday morning surface high pressure will move
into the area along with lower PWAT air (around 0.6"). The front
will stall across Kentucky though allowing 1"+ PWAT air to sit
just south of us. At the same time Saturday leftover pieces of
energy from a sheared out shortwave will be traversing the area
allowing cirrus to quickly return. Saturday night the shortwave
will completely dislodge from the southwestern U.S. and head east
towards the area. Timing of the onset of precip still remains
uncertain at this point as widespread 700 mb dry air will likely
delay the start time a bit as modification will be required. For
now have kept PoPs unchanged during this time frame until there is
more model run consistency.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Center of high pressure shifts to the east by Sunday. This will
likely lead to an increase in cloud cover for Sunday (with
temperatures remaining slightly below average), and we will start
to see an increasing chance of convection particularly in the Tri-
State area toward afternoon.

Stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night
into Monday. At the same time, models show a wave of low pressure
riding along the front across the Ohio Valley. There are some
differences with the track, but enough confidence exists to bump
pops into the high chance range. PW`s are forecast to rise over 2
inches and will have to keep an eye on a potential heavy rain threat
in the Monday/Monday night time frame. Have also included chance of
thunder for this system with the track of the low likely moving
across central Ohio. Given cloud cover, this may help to keep
instability down some, but GFS still suggests aoa 1000 J/kg CAPE
across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky south of the track of the
low.

Wave of low pressure winds up along the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z
Tuesday, but the trailing boundary looks to be parked near the Ohio
River through mid-week. Therefore will continue low pops especially
across the southern portion of the CWA near the boundary through the
end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Few-sct cu across the area this afternoon will dissipate through
late afternoon as some mid and high level clouds begin to push in
from the west. This is ahead of a mid level short wave that
will rotate down across the southern Great Lakes later tonight
into Friday morning. Higher res models are showing a weakening
area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature
moving down toward the TAF sites through mid morning on Friday.
Given the weakening trend and the fact that this is an
unfavorable time of day, will just allow for a few showers at this
point to cover the threat. Conditions will generally remain VFR
through the period although cigs and vsbys could briefly drop down
into MVFR with any remnant activity Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301731
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.

Previous discussion below...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is
showing some moisture making it over the eastern mountains of WV.
However, this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may
just see some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief
shower over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC high pressure remains in control today with mostly sunny
skies and weak flow. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
through at least 07Z.

Tonight, expect radiational cooling to take place under mostly
clear skies and weak flow. Conditions will deteriorate to LIFR
visibilities or ceilings overnight. Any overnight fog will slowly
dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of dense valley fog may
vary Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301731
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.

Previous discussion below...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is
showing some moisture making it over the eastern mountains of WV.
However, this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may
just see some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief
shower over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC high pressure remains in control today with mostly sunny
skies and weak flow. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
through at least 07Z.

Tonight, expect radiational cooling to take place under mostly
clear skies and weak flow. Conditions will deteriorate to LIFR
visibilities or ceilings overnight. Any overnight fog will slowly
dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of dense valley fog may
vary Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301715
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
115 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain chances
increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild afternoon. Only slight
adjustments to sky grids and afternoon max temperatures for the
update.

As a shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and
cloud cover, in the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... General VFR is
expected through the TAF period as surface high pressure shifts
east across the region. By Friday afternoon scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is not high
enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301707
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
107 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
thundershowers Friday. Mostly dry weekend. Frontal boundary with
active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.

Previous discussion below...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is
showing some moisture making it over the eastern mountains of WV.
However, this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may
just see some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief
shower over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MFVR/IFR fog is quickly starting to lift at all taf sites and
should be VFR after 12z-13z time frame. High pressure will remain in
control today and into this evening. Mainly light and variable
winds with some high cirrus wiping throughout the day. Some CU
could form along the mountain areas this afternoon.

Cold front approaching from the west will start to affect the
area from the ohio river and points west. Increasing clouds will
be the norm towards 12z Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipating this morning may
vary. Possible MVFR/IFR fog at EKN aft 05z friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC/AJV
LONG TERM...KMC/AJV
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301651
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1251 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
thundershowers Friday. Mostly dry weekend. Frontal boundary with
active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or lightand
variable winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.

Previous discussion below...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is
showing some moisture making it over the eastern mountains of WV.
However, this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may
just see some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief
shower over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Synoptically, the period starts with a nearly stationary surface low
and front to the south and east, and an approaching cold front/upper
shortwave trough to the northwest. The approaching cold front looks
to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
This should set up a washed out stationary boundary somewhere along
or south of I-64. This will lift back north as a warm front Sunday
as a surface low approaches.

With the cold front Friday, have slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms passing through. Went with some slight chance POPs
across the extreme southern CWA with heating Saturday afternoon in
the vicinity of the washed out boundary. Then have POPs increasing
from south to north Saturday night into Sunday as the boundary
begins to lift north.

Only minimal changes to temps, with a slightly below normal trend
under northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather becomes active again into the Independence Day
holiday and beyond. Frontal boundary will gradually lift north
across the cwa as low pressure moves east out of the central
plains. This will bring an increase in moisture across the
region...and the possibility once again for heavy rains. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of where the frontal boundary
will actually wind up...and areas of heavier precipitation...with
the gfs indicating frontal boundary and resultant waves/heavier
precipitation to our north...with the ecmwf and general wpc
thinking placing the boundary across southern CWA with multiple
waves moving along...enhancing precipitation at times.
Regardless...period of heavy downpours possible...and possibly
even some stronger storms to start next week...as there will be
the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down towards the
surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold off at least one more
shift or so before introducing any strong to severe hazards in
the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MFVR/IFR fog is quickly starting to lift at all taf sites and
should be VFR after 12z-13z time frame. High pressure will remain in
control today and into this evening. Mainly light and variable
winds with some high cirrus wiping throughout the day. Some CU
could form along the mountain areas this afternoon.

Cold front approaching from the west will start to affect the
area from the ohio river and points west. Increasing clouds will
be the norm towards 12z Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipating this morning may
vary. Possible MVFR/IFR fog at EKN aft 05z friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 301637
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1237 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Only minor changes are planned for the afternoon forecast. High
temperatures were raised slightly and cloud cover was lowered just
a tad. Excellent drying conditions prevail with the large
temperature dewpoint spread along with intense June sunshine.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions with only cirrus to contend with will continue
through the day.  Expect a weak lake breeze to develop this
afternoon...but not sure whether it will reach CLE or not.
Overnight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move across the area Friday.

Outlook...A chance of -shra Friday morning/early afternoon as a
weak cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon.  Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon.   North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria.  High pressure builds in again Saturday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301535
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain chances
increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild afternoon. Only slight
adjustments to sky grids and afternoon max temperatures for the
update.

As a shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and
cloud cover, in the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301412
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. As the shortwave trough approaches tonight, an
increase in clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected,
which should limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture
advection. Although the wave will approach, any associated
precipitation should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z
Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and
cloud cover, in the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 301409
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1009 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

a pleasant summer day is in store for the area with just some
high clouds associated with an upper level vorticity center that
is crossing the region. the vort center is clearly shown on the
water vapor imagery. current temperature forecast looks reasonable
with minor changes.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions with only cirrus to contend with will continue
through the day.  Expect a weak lake breeze to develop this
afternoon...but not sure whether it will reach CLE or not.
Overnight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move across the area Friday.

Outlook...A chance of -shra Friday morning/early afternoon as a
weak cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon.  Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon.   North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria.  High pressure builds in again Saturday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301130 CCA
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
thundershowers Friday. Mostly dry weekend. Frontal boundary with
active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is showing
some moisture making it over the eastern mountains of WV.
However, this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may
just see some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief
shower over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Synoptically, the period starts with a nearly stationary surface low
and front to the south and east, and an approaching cold front/upper
shortwave trough to the northwest. The approaching cold front looks
to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
This should set up a washed out stationary boundary somewhere along
or south of I-64. This will lift back north as a warm front Sunday
as a surface low approaches.

With the cold front Friday, have slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms passing through. Went with some slight chance POPs
across the extreme southern CWA with heating Saturday afternoon in
the vicinity of the washed out boundary. Then have POPs increasing
from south to north Saturday night into Sunday as the boundary
begins to lift north.

Only minimal changes to temps, with a slightly below normal trend
under northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weather becomes active again into the Independence Day
holiday and beyond. Frontal boundary will gradually lift north
across the cwa as low pressure moves east out of the central
plains. This will bring an increase in moisture across the
region...and the possibility once again for heavy rains. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of where the frontal boundary
will actually wind up...and areas of heavier precipitation...with
the gfs indicating frontal boundary and resultant waves/heavier
precipitation to our north...with the ecmwf and general wpc
thinking placing the boundary across southern CWA with multiple
waves moving along...enhancing precipitation at times.
Regardless...period of heavy downpours possible...and possibly
even some stronger storms to start next week...as there will be
the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down towards the
surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold off at least one more
shift or so before introducing any strong to severe hazards in
the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MFVR/IFR fog is quickly starting to lift at all taf sites and
should be VFR after 12z-13z time frame. High pressure will remain in
control today and into this evening. Mainly light and variable
winds with some high cirrus wiping throughout the day. Some CU
could form along the mountain areas this afternoon.

Cold front approaching from the west will start to affect the
area from the ohio river and points west. Increasing clouds will
be the norm towards 12z Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipating this morning may
vary. Possible MVFR/IFR fog at EKN aft 05z friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301129
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the
upper 70s. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture
and cloud cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach
the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301129
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the
upper 70s. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture
and cloud cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach
the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 301102
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
702 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Not many concerns for today. Mostly clear and cool conditions
continue this morning. Expecting just some passing high clouds.
Cumulus development looks doubtful given the dry low levels of
the atmosphere. Warm air advection will begin today as the surface
ridges pushes to the east. Expecting about a 2 degree warm up at
850 mb today. This should push temps to the 80 degree mark most
areas. A lake breeze is expected only close the lake today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions with only cirrus to contend with will continue
through the day.  Expect a weak lake breeze to develop this
afternoon...but not sure whether it will reach CLE or not.
Overnight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move across the area Friday.

Outlook...A chance of -shra Friday morning/early afternoon as a
weak cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon.  Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon.   North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria.  High pressure builds in again Saturday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 301102
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
702 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Not many concerns for today. Mostly clear and cool conditions
continue this morning. Expecting just some passing high clouds.
Cumulus development looks doubtful given the dry low levels of
the atmosphere. Warm air advection will begin today as the surface
ridges pushes to the east. Expecting about a 2 degree warm up at
850 mb today. This should push temps to the 80 degree mark most
areas. A lake breeze is expected only close the lake today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions with only cirrus to contend with will continue
through the day.  Expect a weak lake breeze to develop this
afternoon...but not sure whether it will reach CLE or not.
Overnight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move across the area Friday.

Outlook...A chance of -shra Friday morning/early afternoon as a
weak cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon.  Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon.   North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria.  High pressure builds in again Saturday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301038
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
638 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
thundershowers Friday. Mostly dry weekend. Frontal boundary with
active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is showing
some moisture making it over the eastern mountians of WV. However,
this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may just see
some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief shower
over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Synoptically, the period starts with a nearly stationary surface low
and front to the south and east, and an approaching cold front/upper
shortwave trough to the northwest. The approaching cold front looks
to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
This should set up a washed out stationary boundary somewhere along
or south of I-64. This will lift back north as a warm front Sunday
as a surface low approaches.

With the cold front Friday, have slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms passing through. Went with some slight chance POPs
across the extreme southern CWA with heating Saturday afternoon in
the vicinity of the washed out boundary. Then have POPs increasing
from south to north Saturday night into Sunday as the boundary
begins to lift north.

Only minimal changes to temps, with a slightly below normal trend
under northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weather becomes active again into the Independence Day
holiday and beyond. Frontal boundary will gradually lift north
across the cwa as low pressure moves east out of the central
plains. This will bring an increase in moisture across the
region...and the possibility once again for heavy rains. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of where the frontal boundary
will actually wind up...and areas of heavier precipitation...with
the gfs indicating frontal boundary and resultant waves/heavier
precipitation to our north...with the ecmwf and general wpc
thinking placing the boundary across southern CWA with multiple
waves moving along...enhancing precipitation at times.
Regardless...period of heavy downpours possible...and possibly
even some stronger storms to start next week...as there will be
the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down towards the
surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold off at least one more
shift or so before introducing any strong to severe hazards in
the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MFVR/IFR fog is quickly starting to lift at all taf sites and
should be VFR after 12z-13z time frame. High pressure will remain in
control today and into this evening. Mainly light and variable
winds with some high cirrus wisping throughout the day. Some CU
could form along the mountain areas this afternoon.

Cold front approching from the west will start to affect the area
from the ohio river and points west. Increasing clouds will be the
norm towards 12z Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog disapating this morning may
vary. Possible MVFR/IFR fog at EKN aft 05z friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KILN 301022
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will washout across the area today as a
weak upper trough swings into the area. A cold front will then
move across the region on Friday, bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure will build back into the region
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
Some strato-cu have developed again this morning with mostly
light to calm winds across the region. This is thanks to surface
high pressure being centered directly overhead. Temperatures will
be a couple of degrees warmer today than they were yesterday as
the upper level trough begins to modulate allowing heights and 850
mb temperatures to recover a bit. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses rise to
around 1400 m while 850 mb temperatures are forecasted to be
around 12 or 13 degrees C. These slightly higher values support
high temperatures in the lower 80s. During the afternoon today am
expecting a few cu along with some passing cirrus as shown on RAP/
GFS RH fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This evening into Friday morning a piece of energy rotating around
an upper level low in Ontario will dig south into the upper
midwest and eventually rotate across central Ohio near sunrise
Friday morning. Friday evening the trough axis will be east of the
area and drag a surface cold front through the CWA.

Locally, this means clouds will return to the forecast area very
early Friday morning as the trough axis approaches from the west.
A pre-frontal trough will then swing west to east across the area
just behind the upper level trough axis. Latest suite of high res
models (NMM and ARW) shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
early Friday morning along the western border of Michigan/ Indiana
quickly weakening as they head east. PWATs ahead of the pre-frontal
trough will be around 1.3" and is only slightly above average for
this time of year. Forecast soundings on the NAM and GFS are
unimpressive showing very little instability with neither ever
fully saturating. The better upper level support also remains
north of the area. Given the lack of instability, average
moisture, and below average upper level support chance PoPs across
the north and slight chance across the south seems sufficient for
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the surface cold front will enter
our northwestern zones and push through the CWA Friday evening.
The NMM and NAM then ignite showers and thunderstorms along the
front. The GFS/ ARW/ ECMWF and CMC all show very little in the way
of precip along the front. By the time the front moves through the
area all of the PVA is gone and the area begins to fall into the
convergent side of the trough axis. Also shown in forecast
soundings and RH fields is a slug of 500mb dry air overtaking the
surface cold front. This is clearly depicted on the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF. Layer average RHs even fall below 10% at times. Forecast
soundings for Friday afternoon do have some instability but the
CAPE is skinny. Due to the skinny CAPE and extremely low RH in the
700 to 500mb layer think the NMM and NAM are overdone with the
convection along the front. Have kept the forecast as is showing
mostly a dry frontal passage.

Friday night into Saturday morning surface high pressure will move
into the area along with lower PWAT air (around 0.6"). The front
will stall across Kentucky though allowing 1"+ PWAT air to sit
just south of us. At the same time Saturday leftover pieces of
energy from a sheared out shortwave will be traversing the area
allowing cirrus to quickly return. Saturday night the shortwave
will completely dislodge from the southwestern U.S. and head east
towards the area. Timing of the onset of precip still remains
uncertain at this point as widespread 700 mb dry air will likely
delay the start time a bit as modification will be required. For
now have kept PoPs unchanged during this time frame until there is
more model run consistency.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Center of high pressure shifts to the east by Sunday. This will
likely lead to an increase in cloud cover for Sunday (with
temperatures remaining slightly below average), and we will start
to see an increasing chance of convection particularly in the Tri-
State area toward afternoon.

Stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night
into Monday. At the same time, models show a wave of low pressure
riding along the front across the Ohio Valley. There are some
differences with the track, but enough confidence exists to bump
pops into the high chance range. PW`s are forecast to rise over 2
inches and will have to keep an eye on a potential heavy rain threat
in the Monday/Monday night time frame. Have also included chance of
thunder for this system with the track of the low likely moving
across central Ohio. Given cloud cover, this may help to keep
instability down some, but GFS still suggests aoa 1000 J/kg CAPE
across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky south of the track of the
low.

Wave of low pressure winds up along the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z
Tuesday, but the trailing boundary looks to be parked near the Ohio
River through mid-week. Therefore will continue low pops especially
across the southern portion of the CWA near the boundary through the
end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will slowly push off to the east through fcst
period. VFR conditions will prevail. frontal boundary approaches
tonight and will bring mid clouds. isolated shra may approach
western TAF sites toward daybreak. Will only mention in KCVG
extended fcst for now. light and variable winds today will become
more southerly this evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...Padgett




000
FXUS61 KRLX 300834
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
434 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
thundershowers Friday. Mostly dry weekend. Frontal boundary with
active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is showing
some moisture making it over the eastern mountians of WV. However,
this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may just see
some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief shower
over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Synoptically, the period starts with a nearly stationary surface low
and front to the south and east, and an approaching cold front/upper
shortwave trough to the northwest. The approaching cold front looks
to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
This should set up a washed out stationary boundary somewhere along
or south of I-64. This will lift back north as a warm front Sunday
as a surface low approaches.

With the cold front Friday, have slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms passing through. Went with some slight chance POPs
across the extreme southern CWA with heating Saturday afternoon in
the vicinity of the washed out boundary. Then have POPs increasing
from south to north Saturday night into Sunday as the boundary
begins to lift north.

Only minimal changes to temps, with a slightly below normal trend
under northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weather becomes active again into the Independence Day
holiday and beyond. Frontal boundary will gradually lift north
across the cwa as low pressure moves east out of the central
plains. This will bring an increase in moisture across the
region...and the possibility once again for heavy rains. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of where the frontal boundary
will actually wind up...and areas of heavier precipitation...with
the gfs indicating frontal boundary and resultant waves/heavier
precipitation to our north...with the ecmwf and general wpc
thinking placing the boundary across southern CWA with multiple
waves moving along...enhancing precipitation at times.
Regardless...period of heavy downpours possible...and possibly
even some stronger storms to start next week...as there will be
the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down towards the
surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold off at least one more
shift or so before introducing any strong to severe hazards in
the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is in control, with calm wind and good radiational
cooling. This will allow river and mountain valleys to fog
through the morning hours. Kept previous thinking with MVFR/IFR
fog developing between 07Z-12z at all taf sites.
Fog lifts after 12z and VFR conditions through the rest of the
forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of development of fog may vary this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 06/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300817 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
417 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Small update was made to the forecast to account for cirrus
spreading into the region in association with an upper disturbance
over southern Michigan. These clouds also may impact formation or
duration of any fog in the northern zones. Previous discussion
follows...

Surface high pressure will sustain light wind and generally clear
sky early this morning, which has supported prime radiational
cooling conditions. As temperature continues to drop in the next
few hours, some areas may see the development of fog, especially
in river valleys where warm water temperature will sustain
locally- higher dewpoints.

A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches Thursday night, an increase in
clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should
limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection.
Although the wave will approach, any associated precipitation
should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperature today should be able to reach closer to normal values
amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the upper 70s.
Minima tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and cloud
cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach the mid-
upper 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night.

Warm advection should offset the increasing cloud cover to restore
maxima toward near-climatological normal values. Forecasted maxima
near 80F and minima in the mid-upper 50s will be common this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the passage of a cold front by Saturday morning, drier
conditions will become common through the remainder of the
weekend. In addition, temperatures will resume an upward tick as
850 mb temperatures begin from the doldrums of post-frontal cold
advection of 9 to 12C on Saturday but surge toward 13 to 15C by
Sunday.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next week.
The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed 500
mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result. We will end up above normal as a result.
Fries

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relatively-calm winds should allow for
temperatures to approach dewpoints overnight. However, due to
recent dryness, there is not much available surface moisture input
into the boundary layer. This, combined with a few incoming high
clouds from NW OH, should manage to keep fog development from
being too terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have
retained some MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise,
however all sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

kramar/fries




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300817 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
417 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Small update was made to the forecast to account for cirrus
spreading into the region in association with an upper disturbance
over southern Michigan. These clouds also may impact formation or
duration of any fog in the northern zones. Previous discussion
follows...

Surface high pressure will sustain light wind and generally clear
sky early this morning, which has supported prime radiational
cooling conditions. As temperature continues to drop in the next
few hours, some areas may see the development of fog, especially
in river valleys where warm water temperature will sustain
locally- higher dewpoints.

A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches Thursday night, an increase in
clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should
limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection.
Although the wave will approach, any associated precipitation
should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperature today should be able to reach closer to normal values
amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the upper 70s.
Minima tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and cloud
cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach the mid-
upper 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night.

Warm advection should offset the increasing cloud cover to restore
maxima toward near-climatological normal values. Forecasted maxima
near 80F and minima in the mid-upper 50s will be common this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the passage of a cold front by Saturday morning, drier
conditions will become common through the remainder of the
weekend. In addition, temperatures will resume an upward tick as
850 mb temperatures begin from the doldrums of post-frontal cold
advection of 9 to 12C on Saturday but surge toward 13 to 15C by
Sunday.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next week.
The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed 500
mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result. We will end up above normal as a result.
Fries

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relatively-calm winds should allow for
temperatures to approach dewpoints overnight. However, due to
recent dryness, there is not much available surface moisture input
into the boundary layer. This, combined with a few incoming high
clouds from NW OH, should manage to keep fog development from
being too terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have
retained some MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise,
however all sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

kramar/fries




000
FXUS61 KRLX 300721
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
321 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
convection Friday. Drier weekend. Frontal boundary with active
weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high pressure is in control at least for today. The Nam is showing
some moisture making it over the eastern mountians of WV. However,
this is the only model showing this. In any case, we may just see
some afternoon cu develop and possibly an isolated brief shower
over the mountains this afternoon.

Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Synoptically, the period starts with a nearly stationary surface low
and front to the south and east, and an approaching cold front/upper
shortwave trough to the northwest. The approaching cold front looks
to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
This should set up a washed out stationary boundary somewhere along
or south of I-64. This will lift back north as a warm front Sunday
as a surface low approaches.

With the cold front Friday, have slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms passing through. Went with some slight chance POPs
across the extreme southern CWA with heating Saturday afternoon in
the vicinity of the washed out boundary. Then have POPs increasing
from south to north Saturday night into Sunday as the boundary
begins to lift north.

Only minimal changes to temps, with a slightly below normal trend
under northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high pressure holds for at least the first half of the day on
Sunday...however...the weather becomes active again by later in
the day Sunday...into the Independence Day holiday and beyond.
Frontal boundary...stalled out to our south Saturday/beginning of
the period...will gradually lift north across the cwa as low
pressure moves east out of the central plains. This will bring an
increase in moisture across the region...and the possibility once
again for heavy rains. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in terms
of where the frontal boundary will actually wind up...and areas of
heavier precipitation...with the gfs indicating frontal boundary
and resultant waves/heavier precipitation to our north...with the
ecmwf and general wpc thinking placing the boundary across
southern CWA with multiple waves moving along...enhancing
precipitation at times. Regardless...period of heavy downpours
possible...and possibly even some stronger storms to start next
week...as there will be the potential for stronger winds aloft to
mix down towards the surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold
off at least one more shift or so before introducing any hazards
in the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is in control, with calm wind and good radiational
cooling. This will allow river and mountain valleys to fog
through the morning hours. Kept previous thinking with MVFR/IFR
fog developing between 07Z-12z at all taf sites.
Fog lifts after 12z and VFR conditions through the rest of the
forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of development of fog may vary this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 300720
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
320 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east
coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across
the area tomorrow. High pressure will return for Saturday and
Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio
Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Not many concerns for today. Mostly clear and cool conditions
continue this morning. Expecting just some passing high clouds.
Cumulus development looks doubtful given the dry low levels of
the atmosphere. Warm air advection will begin today as the surface
ridges pushes to the east. Expecting about a 2 degree warm up at
850 mb today. This should push temps to the 80 degree mark most
areas. A lake breeze is expected only close the lake today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Didn`t have to make many changes to the short term period today.
The cold front is still on track for tomorrow. Determining precip
coverage remain a challenge so have stayed with low chance pops
most areas. The most significant change was to slow the precip
down a little. Earlier forecast had showers in NW OH by 06z
tonight but think it will be more like 09z or 10z before they
arrive. Will spread chances across the remainder of the area
through the morning hours and then quickly dry things out from
west to east during the afternoon. Limited low level moisture will
be the ingredient holding precip chances down. The area will see
dewpoints struggle to get out of the mid 50s before the front
arrives. Expecting no more than scattered coverage with best
chances in the east. There will be very little CAPE or instability
but tough to rule out a few rumbles of thunder this time of year.
Behind the front...high pressure will quickly build in for the
start of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see a lot of
sunshine with seasonable temps.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models still out of phase for extended forecast. GFS much slower
with the next system moving a low pressure system across the upper
Ohio Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand faster
and more aggressive with the Low. The ECMWF moves the low across
the upper Ohio valley Monday afternoon into Monday night. That
said leaned toward the superblend temps and pops...which give low
chance pops Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions with only cirrus to contend with will continue
through the day.  Expect a weak lake breeze to develop this
afternoon...but not sure whether it will reach CLE or not.

Outlook... Some clouds will move into the area overnight Thursday
with a chance for some rain Friday morning/early afternoon as a
weak cold front passes by with brief non-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with light south winds this
morning...with a weak lake breeze expected east of Cleveland this
afternoon.  Borderline small craft advisory conditions expected to
return this weekend...behind a cold front that will push through
Friday afternoon.   North to northwest winds approach 10 to 20 knots
at times Friday night into Saturday pushing waves to near small
craft advisory criteria.  High pressure builds in again Saturday
night.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KILN 300715
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
315 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will washout across the area today as a
weak upper trough swings into the area. A cold front will then
move across the region on Friday, bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure will build back into the region
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some strato-cu have developed again this morning with mostly
light to calm winds across the region. This is thanks to surface
high pressure being centered directly overhead. Temperatures will
be a couple of degrees warmer today than they were yesterday as
the upper level trough begins to modulate allowing heights and 850
mb temperatures to recover a bit. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses rise to
around 1400 m while 850 mb temperatures are forecasted to be
around 12 or 13 degrees C. These slightly higher values support
high temperatures in the lower 80s. During the afternoon today am
expecting a few cu along with some passing cirrus as shown on RAP/
GFS RH fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This evening into Friday morning a piece of energy rotating around
an upper level low in Ontario will dig south into the upper
midwest and eventually rotate across central Ohio near sunrise
Friday morning. Friday evening the trough axis will be east of the
area and drag a surface cold front through the CWA.

Locally, this means clouds will return to the forecast area very
early Friday morning as the trough axis approaches from the west.
A pre-frontal trough will then swing west to east across the area
just behind the upper level trough axis. Latest suite of high res
models (NMM and ARW) shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
early Friday morning along the western border of Michigan/ Indiana
quickly weakening as they head east. PWATs ahead of the pre-frontal
trough will be around 1.3" and is only slightly above average for
this time of year. Forecast soundings on the NAM and GFS are
unimpressive showing very little instability with neither ever
fully saturating. The better upper level support also remains
north of the area. Given the lack of instability, average
moisture, and below average upper level support chance PoPs across
the north and slight chance across the south seems sufficient for
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the surface cold front will enter
our northwestern zones and push through the CWA Friday evening.
The NMM and NAM then ignite showers and thunderstorms along the
front. The GFS/ ARW/ ECMWF and CMC all show very little in the way
of precip along the front. By the time the front moves through the
area all of the PVA is gone and the area begins to fall into the
convergent side of the trough axis. Also shown in forecast
soundings and RH fields is a slug of 500mb dry air overtaking the
surface cold front. This is clearly depicted on the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF. Layer average RHs even fall below 10% at times. Forecast
soundings for Friday afternoon do have some instability but the
CAPE is skinny. Due to the skinny CAPE and extremely low RH in the
700 to 500mb layer think the NMM and NAM are overdone with the
convection along the front. Have kept the forecast as is showing
mostly a dry frontal passage.

Friday night into Saturday morning surface high pressure will move
into the area along with lower PWAT air (around 0.6"). The front
will stall across Kentucky though allowing 1"+ PWAT air to sit
just south of us. At the same time Saturday leftover pieces of
energy from a sheared out shortwave will be traversing the area
allowing cirrus to quickly return. Saturday night the shortwave
will completely dislodge from the southwestern U.S. and head east
towards the area. Timing of the onset of precip still remains
uncertain at this point as widespread 700 mb dry air will likely
delay the start time a bit as modification will be required. For
now have kept PoPs unchanged during this time frame until there is
more model run consistency.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Center of high pressure shifts to the east by Sunday. This will
likely lead to an increase in cloud cover for Sunday (with
temperatures remaining slightly below average), and we will start
to see an increasing chance of convection particularly in the Tri-
State area toward afternoon.

Stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night
into Monday. At the same time, models show a wave of low pressure
riding along the front across the Ohio Valley. There are some
differences with the track, but enough confidence exists to bump
pops into the high chance range. PW`s are forecast to rise over 2
inches and will have to keep an eye on a potential heavy rain threat
in the Monday/Monday night time frame. Have also included chance of
thunder for this system with the track of the low likely moving
across central Ohio. Given cloud cover, this may help to keep
instability down some, but GFS still suggests aoa 1000 J/kg CAPE
across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky south of the track of the
low.

Wave of low pressure winds up along the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z
Tuesday, but the trailing boundary looks to be parked near the Ohio
River through mid-week. Therefore will continue low pops especially
across the southern portion of the CWA near the boundary through the
end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through fcst period. Some
scattered clouds still but VFR cigs. Light fog possible at KLUK
near sunrise but not probability seems low enough to leave out.
Light and variable winds becoming more south tonight. Weakening
frontal boundary approaching this evening will bring some mid
clouds in to area but still VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...KC/Padgett




000
FXUS61 KILN 300715
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
315 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will washout across the area today as a
weak upper trough swings into the area. A cold front will then
move across the region on Friday, bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure will build back into the region
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some strato-cu have developed again this morning with mostly
light to calm winds across the region. This is thanks to surface
high pressure being centered directly overhead. Temperatures will
be a couple of degrees warmer today than they were yesterday as
the upper level trough begins to modulate allowing heights and 850
mb temperatures to recover a bit. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses rise to
around 1400 m while 850 mb temperatures are forecasted to be
around 12 or 13 degrees C. These slightly higher values support
high temperatures in the lower 80s. During the afternoon today am
expecting a few cu along with some passing cirrus as shown on RAP/
GFS RH fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This evening into Friday morning a piece of energy rotating around
an upper level low in Ontario will dig south into the upper
midwest and eventually rotate across central Ohio near sunrise
Friday morning. Friday evening the trough axis will be east of the
area and drag a surface cold front through the CWA.

Locally, this means clouds will return to the forecast area very
early Friday morning as the trough axis approaches from the west.
A pre-frontal trough will then swing west to east across the area
just behind the upper level trough axis. Latest suite of high res
models (NMM and ARW) shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
early Friday morning along the western border of Michigan/ Indiana
quickly weakening as they head east. PWATs ahead of the pre-frontal
trough will be around 1.3" and is only slightly above average for
this time of year. Forecast soundings on the NAM and GFS are
unimpressive showing very little instability with neither ever
fully saturating. The better upper level support also remains
north of the area. Given the lack of instability, average
moisture, and below average upper level support chance PoPs across
the north and slight chance across the south seems sufficient for
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the surface cold front will enter
our northwestern zones and push through the CWA Friday evening.
The NMM and NAM then ignite showers and thunderstorms along the
front. The GFS/ ARW/ ECMWF and CMC all show very little in the way
of precip along the front. By the time the front moves through the
area all of the PVA is gone and the area begins to fall into the
convergent side of the trough axis. Also shown in forecast
soundings and RH fields is a slug of 500mb dry air overtaking the
surface cold front. This is clearly depicted on the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF. Layer average RHs even fall below 10% at times. Forecast
soundings for Friday afternoon do have some instability but the
CAPE is skinny. Due to the skinny CAPE and extremely low RH in the
700 to 500mb layer think the NMM and NAM are overdone with the
convection along the front. Have kept the forecast as is showing
mostly a dry frontal passage.

Friday night into Saturday morning surface high pressure will move
into the area along with lower PWAT air (around 0.6"). The front
will stall across Kentucky though allowing 1"+ PWAT air to sit
just south of us. At the same time Saturday leftover pieces of
energy from a sheared out shortwave will be traversing the area
allowing cirrus to quickly return. Saturday night the shortwave
will completely dislodge from the southwestern U.S. and head east
towards the area. Timing of the onset of precip still remains
uncertain at this point as widespread 700 mb dry air will likely
delay the start time a bit as modification will be required. For
now have kept PoPs unchanged during this time frame until there is
more model run consistency.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Center of high pressure shifts to the east by Sunday. This will
likely lead to an increase in cloud cover for Sunday (with
temperatures remaining slightly below average), and we will start
to see an increasing chance of convection particularly in the Tri-
State area toward afternoon.

Stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night
into Monday. At the same time, models show a wave of low pressure
riding along the front across the Ohio Valley. There are some
differences with the track, but enough confidence exists to bump
pops into the high chance range. PW`s are forecast to rise over 2
inches and will have to keep an eye on a potential heavy rain threat
in the Monday/Monday night time frame. Have also included chance of
thunder for this system with the track of the low likely moving
across central Ohio. Given cloud cover, this may help to keep
instability down some, but GFS still suggests aoa 1000 J/kg CAPE
across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky south of the track of the
low.

Wave of low pressure winds up along the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z
Tuesday, but the trailing boundary looks to be parked near the Ohio
River through mid-week. Therefore will continue low pops especially
across the southern portion of the CWA near the boundary through the
end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through fcst period. Some
scattered clouds still but VFR cigs. Light fog possible at KLUK
near sunrise but not probability seems low enough to leave out.
Light and variable winds becoming more south tonight. Weakening
frontal boundary approaching this evening will bring some mid
clouds in to area but still VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...KC/Padgett




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300710
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
310 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will sustain light wind and generally clear
sky early this morning, which has supported prime radiational
cooling conditions. As temperature continues to drop in the next
few hours, some areas may see the development of fog, especially
in river valleys where warm water temperature will sustain
locally-higher dewpoints.

A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches Thursday night, an increase in
clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should
limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection.
Although the wave will approach, any associated precipitation
should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperature today should be able to reach closer to normal values
amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the upper 70s.
Minima tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and cloud
cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach the mid-
upper 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night.

Warm advection should offset the increasing cloud cover to restore
maxima toward near-climatological normal values. Forecasted maxima
near 80F and minima in the mid-upper 50s will be common this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the passage of a cold front by Saturday morning, drier
conditions will become common through the remainder of the
weekend. In addition, temperatures will resume an upward tick as
850 mb temperatures begin from the doldrums of post-frontal cold
advection of 9 to 12C on Saturday but surge toward 13 to 15C by
Sunday.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next week.
The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed 500
mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result. We will end up above normal as a result.
Fries

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relatively-calm winds should allow for
temperatures to approach dewpoints overnight. However, due to
recent dryness, there is not much available surface moisture input
into the boundary layer. This, combined with a few incoming high
clouds from NW OH, should manage to keep fog development from
being too terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have
retained some MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise,
however all sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Kramar/Fries




000
FXUS61 KRLX 300554
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
154 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
convection Friday. Drier weekend. Frontal boundary with active
weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 pm update...Have added fog in now at Charleston as I think
that the lowland valleys will see at least patchy dense fog and
the Mountain valleys in Eastern West Virginia will see areas of
dense fog. Temperatures are radiating out a bit faster than
previously forecasted and that combined with light winds and moist
soils...should promote fog development.

525 pm update...Forecast remains on track this afternoon and this
evening with beautiful cool air mass over the region. Have added
some valley fog this evening across the Eastern Half of the
forecast area...as winds will be calm and clear skies should
promote efficient radiational cooling. UPS Cross over temps
tonight will be in the low to mid 50s...and at this time it
appears Elkins should drop well below...so fog should be thickest
there. Still evaluating whether Charleston...Huntington and
Parkersburg will drop enough to reach their cross over
temperatures. I may end up expanding the fog coverage with the
next update to include this...but right now at least some patchy lower
visibilities can be expected in these areas as well.


Previous Discussion...
A high pressure system dominates the forecast through Thursday.
Even so...models do show a few showers developing along the
mountains Thursday afternoon. Moisture is limited...so not
completely convinced that this will happen. Will leave just small
pops for Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front and upper trough will move into the region on
Friday...with isold-sct showers and thunderstorms developing.
Behind the front...cooler...and drier air for much of Saturday
through Saturday night...with high pressure briefly building in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high pressure holds for at least the first half of the day on
Sunday...however...the weather becomes active again by later in
the day Sunday...into the Independence Day holiday and beyond.
Frontal boundary...stalled out to our south Saturday/beginning of
the period...will gradually lift north across the cwa as low
pressure moves east out of the central plains. This will bring an
increase in moisture across the region...and the possibility once
again for heavy rains. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in terms
of where the frontal boundary will actually wind up...and areas of
heavier precipitation...with the gfs indicating frontal boundary
and resultant waves/heavier precipitation to our north...with the
ecmwf and general wpc thinking placing the boundary across
southern CWA with multiple waves moving along...enhancing
precipitation at times. Regardless...period of heavy downpours
possible...and possibly even some stronger storms to start next
week...as there will be the potential for stronger winds aloft to
mix down towards the surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold
off at least one more shift or so before introducing any hazards
in the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is in control, with calm wind and good radiational
cooling. This will allow river and mountain valleys to fog
through the morning hours. Kept previous thinking with MVFR/IFR
fog developing between 07Z-12z at all taf sites.
Fog lifts after 12z and VFR conditions through the rest of the
forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of development of fog may vary this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 300554
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
154 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday. Frontal boundary with isolated
convection Friday. Drier weekend. Frontal boundary with active
weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 pm update...Have added fog in now at Charleston as I think
that the lowland valleys will see at least patchy dense fog and
the Mountain valleys in Eastern West Virginia will see areas of
dense fog. Temperatures are radiating out a bit faster than
previously forecasted and that combined with light winds and moist
soils...should promote fog development.

525 pm update...Forecast remains on track this afternoon and this
evening with beautiful cool air mass over the region. Have added
some valley fog this evening across the Eastern Half of the
forecast area...as winds will be calm and clear skies should
promote efficient radiational cooling. UPS Cross over temps
tonight will be in the low to mid 50s...and at this time it
appears Elkins should drop well below...so fog should be thickest
there. Still evaluating whether Charleston...Huntington and
Parkersburg will drop enough to reach their cross over
temperatures. I may end up expanding the fog coverage with the
next update to include this...but right now at least some patchy lower
visibilities can be expected in these areas as well.


Previous Discussion...
A high pressure system dominates the forecast through Thursday.
Even so...models do show a few showers developing along the
mountains Thursday afternoon. Moisture is limited...so not
completely convinced that this will happen. Will leave just small
pops for Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front and upper trough will move into the region on
Friday...with isold-sct showers and thunderstorms developing.
Behind the front...cooler...and drier air for much of Saturday
through Saturday night...with high pressure briefly building in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high pressure holds for at least the first half of the day on
Sunday...however...the weather becomes active again by later in
the day Sunday...into the Independence Day holiday and beyond.
Frontal boundary...stalled out to our south Saturday/beginning of
the period...will gradually lift north across the cwa as low
pressure moves east out of the central plains. This will bring an
increase in moisture across the region...and the possibility once
again for heavy rains. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in terms
of where the frontal boundary will actually wind up...and areas of
heavier precipitation...with the gfs indicating frontal boundary
and resultant waves/heavier precipitation to our north...with the
ecmwf and general wpc thinking placing the boundary across
southern CWA with multiple waves moving along...enhancing
precipitation at times. Regardless...period of heavy downpours
possible...and possibly even some stronger storms to start next
week...as there will be the potential for stronger winds aloft to
mix down towards the surface. Due to the uncertainty...will hold
off at least one more shift or so before introducing any hazards
in the hwo...but this is a situation that will need to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is in control, with calm wind and good radiational
cooling. This will allow river and mountain valleys to fog
through the morning hours. Kept previous thinking with MVFR/IFR
fog developing between 07Z-12z at all taf sites.
Fog lifts after 12z and VFR conditions through the rest of the
forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of development of fog may vary this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS




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