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000
FXUS61 KILN 290556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
156 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KLUK...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION...EVEN AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE REGION IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT THERE IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP TO DEFINITIVELY SAY WHEN OR WHERE THEY MAY OCCUR. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE VFR SHOWERS AT KCVG/KLUK TOWARDS 6Z. THE VFR
SHOWERS AT KDAY AND KILN IN THE LATE DAY WITH VICINITY AFTER 0Z.
SIMILAR AT KCMH/KLCK WITH VC STARTING AT 22Z. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO <5KT AFTER ABOUT 0Z AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 290556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
156 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KLUK...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION...EVEN AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE REGION IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT THERE IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP TO DEFINITIVELY SAY WHEN OR WHERE THEY MAY OCCUR. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE VFR SHOWERS AT KCVG/KLUK TOWARDS 6Z. THE VFR
SHOWERS AT KDAY AND KILN IN THE LATE DAY WITH VICINITY AFTER 0Z.
SIMILAR AT KCMH/KLCK WITH VC STARTING AT 22Z. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO <5KT AFTER ABOUT 0Z AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS


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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE WEST SO FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING EAST OF CLEVELAND TO AROUND ERIE. THIS
AREA WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. JUST
NOT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO KEY ON FOR DEVELOPMENT. WE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT ON OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME NE OHIO FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
HILLS OR ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CAN MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 290554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE WEST SO FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING EAST OF CLEVELAND TO AROUND ERIE. THIS
AREA WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. JUST
NOT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO KEY ON FOR DEVELOPMENT. WE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT ON OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME NE OHIO FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
HILLS OR ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CAN MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS



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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY
CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY
CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY
CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY
CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KILN 290200
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 290200
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 290200
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE WEST SO FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 290131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE WEST SO FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY
GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY
DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK
OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW
OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE
ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY
GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY
DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK
OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW
OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE
ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY
GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY
DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK
OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW
OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE
ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 282356
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 282356
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 282351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 282351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 282351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KILN 282337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 282337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 282337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 282337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH
CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 281957
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS
INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND
MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START
TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT
GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL GIVE WAY TO CIRRUS THIS EVENING. BY LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND THICKENING CIRRUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...PSEUDO WARM FRONT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BKN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT 16Z DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...HICKMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281926
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX WHILE TO THE WEST LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER IOWA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST. CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO NRN IL. BY MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FROM
NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. EXPECTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WEST.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 281750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR
NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL GIVE WAY TO CIRRUS THIS EVENING. BY LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND THICKENING CIRRUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...PSEUDO WARM FRONT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BKN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT 16Z DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...HICKMAN



000
FXUS61 KILN 281750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR
NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL GIVE WAY TO CIRRUS THIS EVENING. BY LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND THICKENING CIRRUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...PSEUDO WARM FRONT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BKN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT 16Z DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 281733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281716
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
116 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK TO FORM AT AROUND 4000FT WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CAK AND YNG COULD
RECEIVE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281654 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER QUIET NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NEARLY
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERATE LOWS CLOSE TO LAST
NIGHTS VALUES...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A
ONE OR TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281654 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER QUIET NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NEARLY
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERATE LOWS CLOSE TO LAST
NIGHTS VALUES...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A
ONE OR TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281654 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER QUIET NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NEARLY
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERATE LOWS CLOSE TO LAST
NIGHTS VALUES...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A
ONE OR TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281654 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER QUIET NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NEARLY
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERATE LOWS CLOSE TO LAST
NIGHTS VALUES...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A
ONE OR TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281522
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1122 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281443
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO KEEPING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281443
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO KEEPING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281443
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO KEEPING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281443
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO KEEPING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KILN 281439
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR
NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281439
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR
NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281439
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR
NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281439
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR
NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION...BUT ONLY FDY AND YNG HAVE MVFR
VSBYS TO START THE MORNING. EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR
THIS MORNING. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT STILL VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KILN 281056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 281056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 281056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CI WILL BE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP THE THICKER CI
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE DIRECTION
OF THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL IS MORE WESTERLY VERSUS NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PULL ANY CLOUD COVER INTO THE OHVLY. SOME
15-20KFT CIGS WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU OR
CUFRA BY 12Z FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 281040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 281040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 280822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 280822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 280822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 280822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON
THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED
PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO
THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS
WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS
60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280810
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280810
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRUS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND OR JUST UNDER CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES...PLUS A DRIER GROUND THAN NORMAL...THE FORECAST IS
TRICKY. THINK THAT IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR IS LIKELY AT THE USUAL
SITES LIKE ZZV...HLG...AND FKL/DUJ. IN GENERAL...MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRUS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND OR JUST UNDER CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES...PLUS A DRIER GROUND THAN NORMAL...THE FORECAST IS
TRICKY. THINK THAT IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR IS LIKELY AT THE USUAL
SITES LIKE ZZV...HLG...AND FKL/DUJ. IN GENERAL...MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW



000
FXUS61 KILN 280555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS



000
FXUS61 KILN 280555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 280555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 280555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 280555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 280555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRUS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND OR JUST UNDER CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES...PLUS A DRIER GROUND THAN NORMAL...THE FORECAST IS
TRICKY. THINK THAT IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR IS LIKELY AT THE USUAL
SITES LIKE ZZV...HLG...AND FKL/DUJ. IN GENERAL...MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRUS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND OR JUST UNDER CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES...PLUS A DRIER GROUND THAN NORMAL...THE FORECAST IS
TRICKY. THINK THAT IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR IS LIKELY AT THE USUAL
SITES LIKE ZZV...HLG...AND FKL/DUJ. IN GENERAL...MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRUS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND OR JUST UNDER CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES...PLUS A DRIER GROUND THAN NORMAL...THE FORECAST IS
TRICKY. THINK THAT IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR IS LIKELY AT THE USUAL
SITES LIKE ZZV...HLG...AND FKL/DUJ. IN GENERAL...MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280519 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280519 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280519 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280519 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE. WITH AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280247
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280247
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM



000
FXUS61 KILN 280152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 280152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KILN 280152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 280152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUMULUS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING ONLY SCT CIRRUS FOR SKY COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KCLE 280142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 280142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280006
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AWAY FROM A BAND OF REMAINING CLOUD
COVER THAT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT DOWN THE CENTER FROM
WEST TO EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BAND REMAINS SMACK OVER
PITTSBURGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT SAGS SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY MORNING.

WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
CUT A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST
DEGREE OF CLEARING...SUCH AS ALONG I-80...WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE LEAST LONGEVITY OF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. BOTH THERMAL REGIMES ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280006
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AWAY FROM A BAND OF REMAINING CLOUD
COVER THAT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT DOWN THE CENTER FROM
WEST TO EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BAND REMAINS SMACK OVER
PITTSBURGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT SAGS SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY MORNING.

WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
CUT A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST
DEGREE OF CLEARING...SUCH AS ALONG I-80...WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE LEAST LONGEVITY OF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. BOTH THERMAL REGIMES ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280006
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AWAY FROM A BAND OF REMAINING CLOUD
COVER THAT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT DOWN THE CENTER FROM
WEST TO EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BAND REMAINS SMACK OVER
PITTSBURGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT SAGS SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY MORNING.

WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
CUT A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST
DEGREE OF CLEARING...SUCH AS ALONG I-80...WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE LEAST LONGEVITY OF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. BOTH THERMAL REGIMES ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280006
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AWAY FROM A BAND OF REMAINING CLOUD
COVER THAT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT DOWN THE CENTER FROM
WEST TO EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BAND REMAINS SMACK OVER
PITTSBURGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT SAGS SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY MORNING.

WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
CUT A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST
DEGREE OF CLEARING...SUCH AS ALONG I-80...WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE LEAST LONGEVITY OF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. BOTH THERMAL REGIMES ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280006
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AWAY FROM A BAND OF REMAINING CLOUD
COVER THAT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT DOWN THE CENTER FROM
WEST TO EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BAND REMAINS SMACK OVER
PITTSBURGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT SAGS SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY MORNING.

WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
CUT A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST
DEGREE OF CLEARING...SUCH AS ALONG I-80...WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE LEAST LONGEVITY OF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. BOTH THERMAL REGIMES ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 272339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 272339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 272339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 272339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 272339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



000
FXUS61 KILN 272339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER
SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING
FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE BROKEN CIGS 3 TO 4KFT WILL THIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FORCING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK SOMEWHERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE BROKEN CIGS 3 TO 4KFT WILL THIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FORCING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK SOMEWHERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KCLE 272329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE BROKEN CIGS 3 TO 4KFT WILL THIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FORCING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK SOMEWHERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. PREDAWN MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES SATURATED...WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED ALSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM
POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 271950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS61 KILN 271950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 271950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING
THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP
ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT
MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
317 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE BROKEN CIGS 3 TO 4KFT WILL THIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FORCING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK SOMEWHERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
317 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE BROKEN CIGS 3 TO 4KFT WILL THIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FORCING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK SOMEWHERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL TUNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DELIMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.  ALSO SOME
SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL TUNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DELIMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.  ALSO SOME
SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRATUCUMULS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES OVER THE OHIO TURNPIKE AND I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR SPREADS INTO
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE ENHANCES OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRATUCUMULS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES OVER THE OHIO TURNPIKE AND I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR SPREADS INTO
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE ENHANCES OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRATUCUMULS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES OVER THE OHIO TURNPIKE AND I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR SPREADS INTO
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE ENHANCES OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRATUCUMULS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES OVER THE OHIO TURNPIKE AND I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR SPREADS INTO
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE ENHANCES OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 271721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 271721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS61 KILN 271721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 271721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 271721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KILN 271721
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE
AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA.

THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271532
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271532
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271450
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271450
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271450
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271450
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD
BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271443
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING FKL
WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY DUE TO A BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SWATH IN LEE OF THE LAKES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL
IFR ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271443
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING FKL
WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY DUE TO A BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SWATH IN LEE OF THE LAKES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL
IFR ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED MORNING CLOUD COVER WEST BASED ON SATELLITE WHICH
SHOWS RAPID DISSIPATION. CLOUDS ALSO ERODING EAST BUT THAT SHOULD
TAKE LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CU INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY ON BALANCE. NO TEMP CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED MORNING CLOUD COVER WEST BASED ON SATELLITE WHICH
SHOWS RAPID DISSIPATION. CLOUDS ALSO ERODING EAST BUT THAT SHOULD
TAKE LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CU INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY ON BALANCE. NO TEMP CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED MORNING CLOUD COVER WEST BASED ON SATELLITE WHICH
SHOWS RAPID DISSIPATION. CLOUDS ALSO ERODING EAST BUT THAT SHOULD
TAKE LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CU INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY ON BALANCE. NO TEMP CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 271339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 271339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 271339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 271339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED
OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
70S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSINGS THE
REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING FKL
WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY DUE TO A BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SWATH IN LEE OF THE LAKES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL
IFR ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSINGS THE
REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING FKL
WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY DUE TO A BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SWATH IN LEE OF THE LAKES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL
IFR ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSINGS THE
REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING FKL
WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY DUE TO A BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SWATH IN LEE OF THE LAKES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL
IFR ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSINGS THE
REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING FKL
WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY DUE TO A BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SWATH IN LEE OF THE LAKES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE
PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL
IFR ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/24



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 271140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 271046
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 271046
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270934
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
534 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND
COOL WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...WILL
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES
TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A CU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU DECK HAS INDEED HELD ON TOUGH NORTH OF I-70 THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF THAT AREA FOG-FREE. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS POINT IS DUJ WHERE SOME STRATUS HAS MANAGED TO
FORM. SOUTH OF I-70...CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN SOMEWHAT AND SOME PATCHY
FOG HAS FORMED...MOST NOTABLY AT HLG. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN
TO HOLD THROUGH 13Z OR SO...WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING LESS FOG
AND LOWER CEILINGS THAN THE SOUTH...WHERE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING...LEAVING A FAIRLY
LOW CU DECK IN ITS WAKE. FKL/DUJ MAY HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A BIT
LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH MORE GENERAL CLEARING BY SUNSET. HAVE HINTED AT MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAFS IN MANY AREAS...AS
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE AREAS TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY SINK
BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES.
CL

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270934
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
534 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND
COOL WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...WILL
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES
TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A CU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU DECK HAS INDEED HELD ON TOUGH NORTH OF I-70 THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF THAT AREA FOG-FREE. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS POINT IS DUJ WHERE SOME STRATUS HAS MANAGED TO
FORM. SOUTH OF I-70...CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN SOMEWHAT AND SOME PATCHY
FOG HAS FORMED...MOST NOTABLY AT HLG. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN
TO HOLD THROUGH 13Z OR SO...WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING LESS FOG
AND LOWER CEILINGS THAN THE SOUTH...WHERE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING...LEAVING A FAIRLY
LOW CU DECK IN ITS WAKE. FKL/DUJ MAY HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A BIT
LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH MORE GENERAL CLEARING BY SUNSET. HAVE HINTED AT MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAFS IN MANY AREAS...AS
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE AREAS TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY SINK
BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES.
CL

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 270820
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPTIATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE
PERIOD ENDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 270820
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPTIATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE
PERIOD ENDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 270820
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPTIATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE
PERIOD ENDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 270820
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPTIATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE
LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER
MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN
FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES
APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE
PERIOD ENDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KCLE 270813
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH. A SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT TO AVIATION. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY
VFR...BUT SOME MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. TIMING THIS INTO NW OHIO WOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER. THAT
THOUGH MAY CAUSE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOME
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS IF INDEED THEY CLEAR OUT. ELSEWHERE
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY VSBY ISSUES
TO MVFR AT WORST. AGAIN CIGS MAY DIP TO MVFR AT TIMES. EXPECTING
AREA TO CU BACK UP THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SCT/BKN SKIES BETWEEN
MVFR AND LOW VFR TO START THE DAY. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE
TIME...ALTHOUGH WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8
KNOTS OR SO FROM THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 270813
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH. A SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT TO AVIATION. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY
VFR...BUT SOME MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. TIMING THIS INTO NW OHIO WOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER. THAT
THOUGH MAY CAUSE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOME
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS IF INDEED THEY CLEAR OUT. ELSEWHERE
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY VSBY ISSUES
TO MVFR AT WORST. AGAIN CIGS MAY DIP TO MVFR AT TIMES. EXPECTING
AREA TO CU BACK UP THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SCT/BKN SKIES BETWEEN
MVFR AND LOW VFR TO START THE DAY. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE
TIME...ALTHOUGH WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8
KNOTS OR SO FROM THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
410 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND
COOL WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...WILL
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES
TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A CU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AS STRATOCU
DECK IS HANGING TOUGH. H500 TROUGH AXIS HAS PULLED THROUGH AND
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIT. WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE FOG/LOW CLOUD
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT WE WILL NEED MORE GENERAL CLEARING TO
REALLY FOG THE AREA IN.

REGARDLESS...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AND A SCT-BKN CU DECK WILL REMAIN. FKL/DUJ MAY HANG ON
TO MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
MORE GENERAL CLEARING BY SUNSET. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE BETTER 24
HOURS FROM NOW.
CL

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
410 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND
COOL WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...WILL
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES
TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A CU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL
SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN
ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AS STRATOCU
DECK IS HANGING TOUGH. H500 TROUGH AXIS HAS PULLED THROUGH AND
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIT. WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE FOG/LOW CLOUD
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT WE WILL NEED MORE GENERAL CLEARING TO
REALLY FOG THE AREA IN.

REGARDLESS...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AND A SCT-BKN CU DECK WILL REMAIN. FKL/DUJ MAY HANG ON
TO MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
MORE GENERAL CLEARING BY SUNSET. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE BETTER 24
HOURS FROM NOW.
CL

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 270639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALLHUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



000
FXUS61 KRLX 270639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALLHUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALLHUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY



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