Home > Products > State Listing > Ohio Data
Latest:
 AFDILN |  AFDCLE |  AFDPBZ |  AFDRLX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 230655
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURNING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDDS AND
CONCENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 10/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230636
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR TROF AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND ONLY EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS AND NO REAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS IN
DURNING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDDS AND
CONCENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 10/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 230559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE
HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS
CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED
AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z.

SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI
WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 230547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KILN 230205
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 230205
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 230201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 230201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 230201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT
THEY WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY COULD CAUSE 3 TO
5 FOOT WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE EXTREME WEST END AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

THE WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG OFF OF ERIE COUNTY PA
AND ASHTABULA COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC/KIELTYKA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KILN 230019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSELY WATCHING THE LOWEST LEVEL RH AND WIND FIELDS ON THE RAP
FOR ASSESSMENT OF CLOUD DEPARTURE. CONCERNS ARE THE NEAR NON-
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD IN
THE 925 LAYER EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE...AS IF THE RAP 925 IS CORRECT...THERE MAY BE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING DOWN VERY CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING AND THEREFOR FROST WILL BE
FROM THE DAYTON AREA NORTHWARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 230019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSELY WATCHING THE LOWEST LEVEL RH AND WIND FIELDS ON THE RAP
FOR ASSESSMENT OF CLOUD DEPARTURE. CONCERNS ARE THE NEAR NON-
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD IN
THE 925 LAYER EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE...AS IF THE RAP 925 IS CORRECT...THERE MAY BE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING DOWN VERY CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING AND THEREFOR FROST WILL BE
FROM THE DAYTON AREA NORTHWARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KCLE 230004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 222328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 222206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KRLX 222023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN
WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME
FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 222023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN
WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME
FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KCLE 221929
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN
WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME
FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH










000
FXUS61 KILN 221750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 221750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN
WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME
FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 221748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN
WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME
FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING.
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221608
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1208 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KILN 221305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A
HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT
THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK
SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL
THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL
LATE AFTN.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS
EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W.
CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP
LT TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KILN 221048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A
HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT
THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK
SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL
THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL
LATE AFTN.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KCLE 221011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KCLE 221011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK











000
FXUS61 KRLX 220952
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE EAST AND THE VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 19Z.
KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH TODAY. CLEARING FROM
THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT IFR IN LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VALLEY FOG FOR
LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220952
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE EAST AND THE VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 19Z.
KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH TODAY. CLEARING FROM
THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT IFR IN LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VALLEY FOG FOR
LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KILN 220759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
TERMINALS.  CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AFTER 19Z. KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TODAY.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KCLE 220742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...


THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
TERMINALS.  CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AFTER 19Z. KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TODAY.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY
LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE
ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KILN 220611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED
IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.



.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS CIRCULATING SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING
FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NW OH AND MVFR ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...THEN CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION AFTER A SLIGHT FRIDAY SHOWER CHANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KILN 220240
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1040 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED
IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE
CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT
STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME
MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER
DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT
SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
A WEAK FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS
EVENING.  ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.  THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.  SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WED.  MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.  THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG.  CIG HGTS
COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KRLX 220230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
A WEAK FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS
EVENING.  ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.  THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.  SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WED.  MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.  THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG.  CIG HGTS
COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220124 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO RELY ON LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGES AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PUT TOGETHER POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF MY FA. LOOKS TO BE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT IS DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 220108
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
908 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE RAIN SHIELD WEST TO THE ISLANDS...AND SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS WEST WILL DECREASE. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE NORTHEAST THAT WILL HELP
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO IFR IN
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND ONCE THE SHOWERS END
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BR EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
811 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS
EVENING.  ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.  THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.  SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WED.  MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.  THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG.  CIG HGTS
COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS WEST WILL DECREASE. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE NORTHEAST THAT WILL HELP
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO IFR IN
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND ONCE THE SHOWERS END
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER NW OHIO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BR EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KILN 212342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE
CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT
STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME
MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER
DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT
SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KCLE 212320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING IN THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WEST AS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BUOY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212225 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 212117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KCLE 212046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A LAKE TO 850MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL AROUND 15C MORE SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE....SO UPDATED TO PUT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT SINCE THE 850MB WINDS TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...DJB/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
329 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 211750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211341
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KILN 211238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
838 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 211238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
838 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 211016
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KRLX 210753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities