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000
FXUS61 KRLX 090703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 090617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 090617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 090617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 090608
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
108 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST WEST ZONE OF SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS ZONE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH BUT BEING PERSISTENT FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS
BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND PORTSMOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING
AREA. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW
OCCURRING INTO THE DAYTON AREA HAS LED TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

COLDER AIR ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED DOWN LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST
WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN
THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND HAS SET UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
THIS MORNING WITH A 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS. THIS RUNS RIGHT THROUGH KILN WITH THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES MORE ON THE FRINGE. THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO IT
FOR THE TAF FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HANG ON TO THE SNOW
BAND THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND THEN ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     053>056-060>062-081-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     070>074-077>080-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL




000
FXUS61 KILN 090608
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
108 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST WEST ZONE OF SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS ZONE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH BUT BEING PERSISTENT FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS
BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND PORTSMOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING
AREA. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW
OCCURRING INTO THE DAYTON AREA HAS LED TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

COLDER AIR ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED DOWN LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST
WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN
THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND HAS SET UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
THIS MORNING WITH A 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS. THIS RUNS RIGHT THROUGH KILN WITH THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES MORE ON THE FRINGE. THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO IT
FOR THE TAF FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HANG ON TO THE SNOW
BAND THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND THEN ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     053>056-060>062-081-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     070>074-077>080-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCLE 090509
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1209 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN
THE SNOWBELT AND LOWERED POPS SOME IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW IS COMING TO AN END AT CLE/CAK BUT WILL
LINGER THROUGH AROUND 10Z AT YNG/ERI. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BUT THESE WILL FILL IN WITH
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THOSE INTO THE
TERMINALS. THE SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN NATURE UNTIL SOME
HEAVIER SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE SNOWBELT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20+ KNOTS AT TOL/FDY/CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KILN 090355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1055 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EAST WEST ZONE OF SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS ZONE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH BUT BEING PERSISTENT FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS
BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND PORTSMOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING
AREA. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW
OCCURRING INTO THE DAYTON AREA HAS LED TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

COLDER AIR ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED DOWN LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST
WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN
THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT KILN
AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW INCREASES
TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN ADDITION WEST WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     053>056-060>062-070-071-077>079-081-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-072>074-080-082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     072>074-080-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 090355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1055 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EAST WEST ZONE OF SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS ZONE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH BUT BEING PERSISTENT FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS
BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND PORTSMOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING
AREA. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW
OCCURRING INTO THE DAYTON AREA HAS LED TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

COLDER AIR ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED DOWN LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST
WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN
THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT KILN
AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW INCREASES
TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN ADDITION WEST WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     053>056-060>062-070-071-077>079-081-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-072>074-080-082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     072>074-080-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 090355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1055 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EAST WEST ZONE OF SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS ZONE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH BUT BEING PERSISTENT FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS
BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND PORTSMOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING
AREA. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW
OCCURRING INTO THE DAYTON AREA HAS LED TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

COLDER AIR ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED DOWN LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST
WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN
THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT KILN
AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW INCREASES
TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN ADDITION WEST WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     053>056-060>062-070-071-077>079-081-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-072>074-080-082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     072>074-080-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KCLE 090235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN
THE SNOWBELT AND LOWERED POPS SOME IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS
OF SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 1 MILE. EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS EXISTED AT
TAF ISSUANCE...EXPECT A LOWER MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO 10-14
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 090226 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
926 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES MODEL DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE
RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD
ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW
TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A
FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS
MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 090011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGTHNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.1015 AM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST THRU THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

A POTENT SQUALL WILL MOVE OVER THE N TAF SITES THRU 02Z WITH BRIEF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS CORRESPONDING TO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS. ANOTHER SQUALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W THIS EVENING WITH YET ANOTHER LOWERING OF CONDITIONS
BACK INTO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY FOR A TIME. OUTSIDE OF THOSE
BANDS...MAINLY MVFR AND VFR CIGS/VSBY.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED S/W TROF WILL SWING THRU
GENERALLY AFTER 06Z WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SQUALL.
BEHIND THAT THE COVERAGE IN SHSN WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER SE
OH AND N WV WHERE A PROLONGED IFR OR WORSE SET UP IS ENVISIONED
THRU TUE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHSN
FOR S TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CARRY THRU TUE MORNING WITH
PERHAPS MORE OF A MVFR/IFR SHSN REGIME TAKING HOLD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KCLE 090003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 630 UPDATE. FRONT IS
FINALLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN
IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS
OF SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 1 MILE. EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS EXISTED AT
TAF ISSUANCE...EXPECT A LOWER MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO 10-14
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 090003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 630 UPDATE. FRONT IS
FINALLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN
IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS
OF SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 1 MILE. EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS EXISTED AT
TAF ISSUANCE...EXPECT A LOWER MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO 10-14
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 090003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 630 UPDATE. FRONT IS
FINALLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN
IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS
OF SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 1 MILE. EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS EXISTED AT
TAF ISSUANCE...EXPECT A LOWER MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO 10-14
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 090002 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7PM UPDATE...LATEST MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING THE AXIS OF
HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND ALSO SHOWING A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER AS DRIER AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE 500 LOW. THIS
IS NOT ONLY SHOWING UP IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA...BUT ALSO
THE HIRES DATA AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AS EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOW
COMPARED TO WHAT IT COULD DO IN A COMPLETELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.
THIS DECREASE AND CHANGE IN LOCATION OF THE SNOW TONIGHT AND
THROUGH PARTS OF TUESDAY HAS REQUIRED A DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES MODEL DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE
RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD
ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW
TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A
FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS
MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-
     511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 090002 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7PM UPDATE...LATEST MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING THE AXIS OF
HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND ALSO SHOWING A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER AS DRIER AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE 500 LOW. THIS
IS NOT ONLY SHOWING UP IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA...BUT ALSO
THE HIRES DATA AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AS EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOW
COMPARED TO WHAT IT COULD DO IN A COMPLETELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.
THIS DECREASE AND CHANGE IN LOCATION OF THE SNOW TONIGHT AND
THROUGH PARTS OF TUESDAY HAS REQUIRED A DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES MODEL DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE
RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD
ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW
TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A
FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS
MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-
     511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 090002 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7PM UPDATE...LATEST MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING THE AXIS OF
HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND ALSO SHOWING A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER AS DRIER AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE 500 LOW. THIS
IS NOT ONLY SHOWING UP IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA...BUT ALSO
THE HIRES DATA AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AS EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOW
COMPARED TO WHAT IT COULD DO IN A COMPLETELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.
THIS DECREASE AND CHANGE IN LOCATION OF THE SNOW TONIGHT AND
THROUGH PARTS OF TUESDAY HAS REQUIRED A DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES MODEL DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE
RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD
ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW
TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A
FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS
MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-
     511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 082354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT
KILN AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW
INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN
ADDITION WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 082354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT
KILN AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW
INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN
ADDITION WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 082354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT
KILN AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW
INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN
ADDITION WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 082354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT
KILN AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW
INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN
ADDITION WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KILN 082354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT
KILN AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW
INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN
ADDITION WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KCLE 082320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 630 UPDATE. FRONT IS
FINALLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN
IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PIVOTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED NORTH WHILE SPEEDING UP A BIT
SOUTH. TO THE WEST A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST. BELIEVE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR IN THE WEST.
DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO MFD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT ADDED MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD TAKE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR. FURTHER EAST KCLE AND
KCAK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BAND OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
HOLDING CONDITIONS AT IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THERE MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...YNG AND ERI STILL NET PRECIPITATING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AT FIRST
WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT. TUESDAY STARTED TERMINALS OFF MVFR BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AREAS OF IFR OR BELOW AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 082141
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
441 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.1015 AM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KILN 082131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECWMF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH
THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT THEM TO
LOWER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 082024
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PIVOTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED NORTH WHILE SPEEDING UP A BIT
SOUTH. TO THE WEST A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST. BELIEVE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR IN THE WEST.
DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO MFD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT ADDED MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD TAKE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR. FURTHER EAST KCLE AND
KCAK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BAND OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
HOLDING CONDITIONS AT IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THERE MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...YNG AND ERI STILL NET PRECIPITATING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AT FIRST
WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT. TUESDAY STARTED TERMINALS OFF MVFR BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AREAS OF IFR OR BELOW AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081957
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE
RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD
ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW
TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A
FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS
MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. PREVIOUS...AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF FIRST DIGGING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND
NORTHEAST. BEST LIFT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES HEADING INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF RAIN WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAY BE A MIX TO PITTSBURGH AT TIMES WITH WET
BULBING...BUT PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND WARM
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO MELT MOST SNOW IF ANY. BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO IS ON THE WANE AS
SUPPORT QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH. MAIN CHANGE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST
WAS TO ADD MIX UP TO PITTSBURGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD FOLLOWS.


TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. PREVIOUS...AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF FIRST DIGGING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND
NORTHEAST. BEST LIFT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES HEADING INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF RAIN WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAY BE A MIX TO PITTSBURGH AT TIMES WITH WET
BULBING...BUT PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND WARM
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO MELT MOST SNOW IF ANY. BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO IS ON THE WANE AS
SUPPORT QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH. MAIN CHANGE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST
WAS TO ADD MIX UP TO PITTSBURGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD FOLLOWS.


TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. PREVIOUS...AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF FIRST DIGGING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND
NORTHEAST. BEST LIFT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES HEADING INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF RAIN WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAY BE A MIX TO PITTSBURGH AT TIMES WITH WET
BULBING...BUT PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND WARM
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO MELT MOST SNOW IF ANY. BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO IS ON THE WANE AS
SUPPORT QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH. MAIN CHANGE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST
WAS TO ADD MIX UP TO PITTSBURGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD FOLLOWS.


TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KILN 081812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...AROUND AN INCH...IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE TRISTATE AND
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. IN
GENERAL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH
THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT THEM TO
LOWER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 081812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...AROUND AN INCH...IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE TRISTATE AND
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. IN
GENERAL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH
THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT THEM TO
LOWER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 081753
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME.
HEAVIER SNOW HAS WEAKENED BUT STILL EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR SO
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON THE GRASSY AREAS. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. TEMPERATURES DID JUMP A BIT
IN THE WEST BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PIVOTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED NORTH WHILE SPEEDING UP A BIT
SOUTH. TO THE WEST A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST. BELIEVE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR IN THE WEST.
DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO MFD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT ADDED MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD TAKE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR. FURTHER EAST KCLE AND
KCAK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BAND OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
HOLDING CONDITIONS AT IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THERE MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...YNG AND ERI STILL NET PRECIPITATING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AT FIRST
WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT. TUESDAY STARTED TERMINALS OFF MVFR BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AREAS OF IFR OR BELOW AS WELL.


OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 081723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1223 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PIVOTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED NORTH WHILE SPEEDING UP A BIT
SOUTH. TO THE WEST A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST. BELIEVE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR IN THE WEST.
DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO MFD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT ADDED MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD TAKE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR. FURTHER EAST KCLE AND
KCAK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BAND OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
HOLDING CONDITIONS AT IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THERE MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...YNG AND ERI STILL NET PRECIPITATING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AT FIRST
WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT. TUESDAY STARTED TERMINALS OFF MVFR BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AREAS OF IFR OR BELOW AS WELL.


OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN




000
FXUS61 KILN 081702
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...AROUND AN INCH...IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE TRISTATE AND
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. IN
GENERAL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 081702
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...AROUND AN INCH...IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE TRISTATE AND
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. IN
GENERAL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES



000
FXUS61 KILN 081702
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...AROUND AN INCH...IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE TRISTATE AND
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. IN
GENERAL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081631
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1131 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF FIRST DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND NORTHEAST. BEST LIFT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES HEADING INTO NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF RAIN WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY BE A MIX TO
PITTSBURGH AT TIMES WITH WET BULBING...BUT PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT
FOR THE MOST PART AND WARM LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO MELT MOST
SNOW IF ANY. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO IS ON THE WANE AS SUPPORT QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH. MAIN
CHANGE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS TO ADD MIX UP TO PITTSBURGH. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FOLLOWS.


TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS...UNTIL
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO WILL APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 UPDATE...MAIN FEATURE TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT IS AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. EXPECT A
LINE OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE
FRONT...THEN RATHER WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV/26




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081443
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PRECIP
HAS MIXED TO SNOW AT ZANESVILLE...BUT BULK OF BEST LIFT AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


FAIRLY SHARP ELONGATED FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR WEST...STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN...BUT WITH THE CURRENTLY
LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OHIO...TEMPERATURES
MAY WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. HI-RES WRF AND NAM MODELS
DEPICT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SWITCHING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET BULBING AND SOME ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING...THINK SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OHIO
WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS...UNTIL
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO WILL APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081443
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PRECIP
HAS MIXED TO SNOW AT ZANESVILLE...BUT BULK OF BEST LIFT AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


FAIRLY SHARP ELONGATED FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR WEST...STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN...BUT WITH THE CURRENTLY
LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OHIO...TEMPERATURES
MAY WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. HI-RES WRF AND NAM MODELS
DEPICT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SWITCHING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET BULBING AND SOME ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING...THINK SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OHIO
WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS...UNTIL
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO WILL APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCLE 081438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN




000
FXUS61 KCLE 081438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 081438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 081438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 081438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN



000
FXUS61 KCLE 081207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REFINED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST A BIT FOR THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. UNLIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
TODAY...GENERALLY "LESS THAN AN INCH" OR "LITTLE/NONE".
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO MARGINAL UNLESS IT WERE TO SNOW HARD FOR
A WHILE. UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECAST
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL LIMITED BUT SHOULD EXPAND THIS MORNING
AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SLIDES EAST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER WARM AND DEW POINTS ARE COMING
UP TO AROUND FREEZING. COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ALOFT AND TO THE
WEST THOUGH AND I THINK AS SOON AS THE WIND CAN SHIFT MORE TO A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN CHILL
ENOUGH TO GET SOME WET SNOW. ALSO...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...THE COLUMN ALOFT COULD COOL WHEN THE UPWARD MOTION BECOMES
STRONG AND PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME VARIATION
BY ELEVATION AS WELL. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS... THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN RATHER VAGUE TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TO GET ANY SNOW TO
THE OH PA BORDER WHERE TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW IF THE SNOW WERE TO
COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH BUT IT WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO STICK ON THE
ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN




000
FXUS61 KILN 081145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 081145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 081145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE TO
OUR WEST...BUT DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD OFF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SHARP ELONGATED FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR WEST...STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN...BUT WITH THE CURRENTLY
LARGE DEWPOINT SPREADS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OHIO...TEMPERATURES
MAY WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. HI-RES WRF AND NAM MODELS
DEPICT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SWITCHING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET BULBING AND SOME ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING...THINK SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OHIO
WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS...UNTIL
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO WILL APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE TO
OUR WEST...BUT DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD OFF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SHARP ELONGATED FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR WEST...STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN...BUT WITH THE CURRENTLY
LARGE DEWPOINT SPREADS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OHIO...TEMPERATURES
MAY WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. HI-RES WRF AND NAM MODELS
DEPICT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SWITCHING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET BULBING AND SOME ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING...THINK SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OHIO
WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS...UNTIL
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO WILL APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE TO
OUR WEST...BUT DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD OFF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SHARP ELONGATED FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR WEST...STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN...BUT WITH THE CURRENTLY
LARGE DEWPOINT SPREADS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OHIO...TEMPERATURES
MAY WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. HI-RES WRF AND NAM MODELS
DEPICT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SWITCHING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET BULBING AND SOME ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING...THINK SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OHIO
WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS...UNTIL
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO WILL APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081010
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
510 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE TO
OUR WEST...BUT DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD OFF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK.

FAIRLY SHARP ELONGATED FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR WEST...STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN...BUT WITH THE CURRENTLY
LARGE DEWPOINT SPREADS OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OHIO...TEMPERATURES
MAY WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. HI-RES WRF AND NAM MODELS
DEPICT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SWITCHING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET BULBING AND SOME ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING...THINK SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OHIO
WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 40S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE FRONT DOOR TO THE COLD AIR SWINGS OPEN AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
RESULTANT QPF OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM OMEGA FIELDS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH SEVERAL BULLSEYES OF QPF NEARING 1". STILL...THE
BROADER OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK OF
QPF WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THIS TREND HAS RESULTED IN THE RAISING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION BOTH IN TIME AND AREA OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY
TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION...OR WARNING UPGRADES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS H500 CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. RESULTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SHSN GOING.
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS TIME WEARS ON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INTO COLDER THAN IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGGREGATE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH SHSN
COVERAGE GREATLY DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS...CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED GRIDS DO APPROACH
BUT DO NOT MEET/EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 OR 24 HOUR
PERIOD IN THE RIDGES. THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS TO THE WEST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...ELECTED TO GO WITH LONG-LASTING ADVISORIES FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LONGER DURATION IN THE RIDGES.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF BANDING
STRUCTURES CAN FORM AND SIT OVER A PARTICULAR REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE SUCH A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING PATTERN TEMPORARILY RELAXES.
HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN IN NW FLOW AND
CROSS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
HEADLINE MAY END UP BEING THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. TROUGH RELAXES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION...BUT ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE MAY ARRIVE AS WELL. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL
APPROACH ZZV THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST...RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR AS
IT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
IN SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN PORTS IMPACTED
THE MOST.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KILN 080949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK
THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY
SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED
OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN
QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND
OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING
UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP.


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 080949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK
THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY
SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED
OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN
QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND
OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING
UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP.


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 080949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK
THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY
SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED
OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN
QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND
OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING
UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP.


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 080949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK
THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY
SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED
OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN
QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND
OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING
UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP.


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 080949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK
THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY
SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED
OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN
QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND
OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING
UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP.


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
413 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080906
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
406 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KCLE 080904
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
404 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL LIMITED BUT SHOULD EXPAND THIS MORNING
AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SLIDES EAST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER WARM AND DEW POINTS ARE COMING
UP TO AROUND FREEZING. COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ALOFT AND TO THE
WEST THOUGH AND I THINK AS SOON AS THE WIND CAN SHIFT MORE TO A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN CHILL
ENOUGH TO GET SOME WET SNOW. ALSO...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...THE COLUMN ALOFT COULD COOL WHEN THE UPWARD MOTION BECOMES
STRONG AND PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME VARIATION
BY ELEVATION AS WELL. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS... THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN RATHER VAGUE TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TO GET ANY SNOW TO
THE OH PA BORDER WHERE TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW IF THE SNOW WERE TO
COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH BUT IT WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO STICK ON THE
ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL START OUT WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT
TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST. WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLE BY DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THIS POINT SO LITTLE OF WHAT IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT I
DOUBT LITTLE ELSE. ALL 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO WILL SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR FRONT.
PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW. FRONT
WONT REACH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MULLEN




000
FXUS61 KILN 080557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASE. BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL VERY FAR AND IN FACT
WILL LIKELY RISE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
BIT. AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY
EXPERIENCE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK
THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY
SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED
OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN
QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND
OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING
UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP.


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING IN TERMS OF CHANGES YET...BUT STILL IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS
HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 080537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING IN TERMS OF CHANGES YET...BUT STILL IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS
HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING IN TERMS OF CHANGES YET...BUT STILL IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS
HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KCLE 080444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN
THE SURFACE OBS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLE BY DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THIS POINT SO LITTLE OF WHAT IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT I
DOUBT LITTLE ELSE. ALL 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO WILL SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR FRONT.
PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW. FRONT
WONT REACH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 080444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN
THE SURFACE OBS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLE BY DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THIS POINT SO LITTLE OF WHAT IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT I
DOUBT LITTLE ELSE. ALL 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO WILL SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR FRONT.
PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW. FRONT
WONT REACH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 080444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN
THE SURFACE OBS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLE BY DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THIS POINT SO LITTLE OF WHAT IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT I
DOUBT LITTLE ELSE. ALL 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO WILL SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR FRONT.
PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW. FRONT
WONT REACH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 080253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN
THE SURFACE OBS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECTED TO REACH CLE AREA MONDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUAL REACH ERI AREA MONDAY EVENING. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KILN 080248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
948 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASE. BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL VERY FAR AND IN FACT
WILL LIKELY RISE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
BIT. AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY
EXPERIENCE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 080248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
948 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASE. BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL VERY FAR AND IN FACT
WILL LIKELY RISE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
BIT. AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY
EXPERIENCE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 080248
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
948 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASE. BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL VERY FAR AND IN FACT
WILL LIKELY RISE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
BIT. AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY
EXPERIENCE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KRLX 080239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE
ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS AN UGLY MESS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND IN AREA AS DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. SPOTTY QPF MAXIMUMS
HINT AT CSI AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KRLX 080239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE
ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS AN UGLY MESS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND IN AREA AS DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. SPOTTY QPF MAXIMUMS
HINT AT CSI AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE
ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS AN UGLY MESS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND IN AREA AS DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. SPOTTY QPF MAXIMUMS
HINT AT CSI AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
829 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT THERE. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE FIRST PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THESE AREAS TO COVER THIS. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS DURING SUCCESSIVE
PERIODS...IN COORDINATION WITH CHARLESTON/STERLING...THE DECISION
WAS MADE TO JUST COVER THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE TO CHANGE AS VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A DETERIORATION TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES STARTING 12Z AT ZZV...AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA BY 18Z. FURTHER
DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED AS THE TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
829 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT THERE. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE FIRST PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THESE AREAS TO COVER THIS. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS DURING SUCCESSIVE
PERIODS...IN COORDINATION WITH CHARLESTON/STERLING...THE DECISION
WAS MADE TO JUST COVER THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE TO CHANGE AS VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A DETERIORATION TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES STARTING 12Z AT ZZV...AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA BY 18Z. FURTHER
DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED AS THE TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
829 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT THERE. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE FIRST PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THESE AREAS TO COVER THIS. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS DURING SUCCESSIVE
PERIODS...IN COORDINATION WITH CHARLESTON/STERLING...THE DECISION
WAS MADE TO JUST COVER THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE TO CHANGE AS VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A DETERIORATION TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES STARTING 12Z AT ZZV...AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA BY 18Z. FURTHER
DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED AS THE TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ512-514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE TO CHANGE AS VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A DETERIORATION TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES STARTING 12Z AT ZZV...AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA BY 18Z. FURTHER
DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED AS THE TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE TO CHANGE AS VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A DETERIORATION TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES STARTING 12Z AT ZZV...AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA BY 18Z. FURTHER
DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED AS THE TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KRLX 080006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
706 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

700PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE ON
MONDAY MORNING...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB.

UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/30
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
706 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

700PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE ON
MONDAY MORNING...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB.

UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/30
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080004
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
704 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLATNIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR/PATCHY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPD FOR PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG...WITH PCPN/CONDITION
DETERIORATION SPREADING E THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080004
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
704 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PROBLEMATIC TRENDS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS VIS-A-VIS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PUSH OF
GENUINE ARCTIC AIR. THE SIGNAL IS QUITE PRESENT ON THE
GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. THE INCOMING 18Z
GFS DOES LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL...HOWEVER
THE NAM PLACEMENT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE. THIS YIELDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
TERMS OF NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMMON THEMES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GENERALLY REVOLVE AROUND GOOD DEFORMATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700 MB ALIGNING WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME ATLATNIC
MOISTURE FEED BACK INTO A TROWAL AIR STREAM THAT FEEDS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPECIFICS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
THUS...THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AND
INTENSITY GENERALLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BROAD ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DURATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS FGEN ZONE WILL LINGER IN
SOME PARTICULAR AREA DURING THAT INTERVAL. IF THAT SHOULD
OCCUR...GOOD MICROPHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RATIO
SNOWS COULD WELL RESULT IN WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CORRIDOR IT LINGERS. FRIES

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR/PATCHY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPD FOR PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG...WITH PCPN/CONDITION
DETERIORATION SPREADING E THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KILN 072355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR IN THAT AREA
WITH THOSE CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 072355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR IN THAT AREA
WITH THOSE CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KILN 072355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR IN THAT AREA
WITH THOSE CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KCLE 072331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. TEMPS INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THEN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD FINALLY END UP FROM ABOUT 30 OR 31 IN THE WEST TO 33 TO
34 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECTED TO REACH CLE AREA MONDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUAL REACH ERI AREA MONDAY EVENING. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 072331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. TEMPS INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THEN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD FINALLY END UP FROM ABOUT 30 OR 31 IN THE WEST TO 33 TO
34 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECTED TO REACH CLE AREA MONDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUAL REACH ERI AREA MONDAY EVENING. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



000
FXUS61 KCLE 072331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. TEMPS INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THEN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD FINALLY END UP FROM ABOUT 30 OR 31 IN THE WEST TO 33 TO
34 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECTED TO REACH CLE AREA MONDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUAL REACH ERI AREA MONDAY EVENING. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KILN 072113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 072113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 072113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 072109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WETBULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE
WHEN EACH TERMINAL IS TO DROP BELOW VFR. AREAS IN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS AND LOWEST VIS AND CEILINGS
MAY APPROACH LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/30
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 072109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WETBULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE
WHEN EACH TERMINAL IS TO DROP BELOW VFR. AREAS IN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS AND LOWEST VIS AND CEILINGS
MAY APPROACH LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/30
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 072012
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/... LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. TEMPS INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THEN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD FINALLY END UP FROM ABOUT 30 OR 31 IN THE WEST TO 33 TO
34 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER APPROACHING
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.
EXPECTING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN WITH IT THAT WILL
LIKELY EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
IFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD ENTER WEST AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AFTER
06-08Z CENTRAL AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD ASCENT...DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL FOR THE THREE-DAY SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWERS AND PROLONGED ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS ON THE RIDGES. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK MENTION FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND
HEADLINE POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE COMPROMISING
SNOW POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER
IN A COLDER AIRMASS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS...OR RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL HAVE BETTER
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS NIGHT FALLS.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID LVL LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS TO OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR SNOW.
THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXCEPTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT SHOULD
PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL
HAVE THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD ...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR/PATCHY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPD FOR PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG...WITH PCPN/CONDITION
DETERIORATION SPREADING E THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WETBULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAINSHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME
THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE
FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A
2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS
HOUR TIME FRAME.

KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE
WHEN EACH TERMINAL IS TO DROP BELOW VFR. AREAS IN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS AND LOWEST VIS AND CEILINGS
MAY APPROACH LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK/26
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WETBULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAINSHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME
THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE
FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A
2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS
HOUR TIME FRAME.

KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE
WHEN EACH TERMINAL IS TO DROP BELOW VFR. AREAS IN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS AND LOWEST VIS AND CEILINGS
MAY APPROACH LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK/26
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KILN 071755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO GENERALLY THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 071755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO GENERALLY THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK



000
FXUS61 KILN 071755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO GENERALLY THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KCLE 071739
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INDUCE AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLA.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER APPROACHING
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.
EXPECTING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN WITH IT THAT WILL
LIKELY EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
IFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD ENTER WEST AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AFTER
06-08Z CENTRAL AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071722
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL CLDINESS HAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NR TERM PD.

THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD
ASCENT...DEEP MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE
CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A SNOW-TO-RAIN OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE COMPROMISING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...OR RAPIDLY
MELTING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL HAVE BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS
NIGHT FALLS.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS TO OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL HAVE
THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR/PATCHY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPD FOR PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG...WITH PCPN/CONDITION
DETERIORATION SPREADING E THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071722
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL CLDINESS HAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NR TERM PD.

THE UPR OH REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNGT WITH
RIDGING RIDGING BETWEEN WRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

THE WRN LOW WL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVR THE MIDWEST AND PLAGUE THE ARE WITH BROAD
ASCENT...DEEP MOISTURE...WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ROTATING ARND THE
CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND ASCENT VIA WARM ADVCTN AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING...WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS PER SLOWER MDL CONSENSUS. AS
THAT SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SBSDNC ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
EXPLODING SE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC LOW...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND RETREATED FROM OVRNGT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. EXPECT A SNOW-TO-RAIN OR A
PRIMARY SNOW SITUATION WITH MELTING AT THE SFC AS THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT PLOUGHS TOWARD THE I 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
GIVEN THE TEMP LIMITATIONS AND SLOWER PROGRESSION...ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE COMPROMISING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...OR RAPIDLY
MELTING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL HAVE BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS
NIGHT FALLS.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS TO OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE FILLED/PHASED WITH
THE UPR OH UNDER THE AXIS OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH.
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THUS CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO FLOW OVR THE REGION AS THAT AXIS SHIFTS EWD. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND IS TO ROTATE A VORT
CENTER/SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF THAT LOW. PRECIP PROBS WERE THUS
INCRSD FOR WEDNESDAY...CUMULATING IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DRY ADVCTN AND INCREASING COLD IN THE
SNOW-SOURCE REGION SHOULD DEGRADE EFFICIENCY SO TOTALS WERE NOT
AMPED MUCH AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING PTN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING COLD AIR OVR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB AVG TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDER THE NORMALS
LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES WL HAVE
THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
COLD...OFF-THE-LAKES UPSLOPING FLOW.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR/PATCHY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPD FOR PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG...WITH PCPN/CONDITION
DETERIORATION SPREADING E THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KILN 071453
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
953 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO GENERALLY THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES VFR AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH HAS
SLOWLY STARTED TO BREAKDOWN THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
STILL FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF GUSTS IN TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS IS WHEN
THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO COLUMBUS MONDAY MORNING. ALL
PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
COLUMBUS DOES SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END AFTER THE FIRST ROUND MOVES EAST MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND WEAK FRONT. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT RAIN WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KCLE 071443
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INDUCE AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLA.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071413
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
UPDATE TO ALIGN THEM WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS...RANGING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS GOOD
CHANCES FOR PCPN...OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND PARTS OF WV SUNDAY NIGHT.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME
THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE
FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A
2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS
HOUR TIME FRAME.

KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT S TODAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
OR WORST ALONG THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST SKY COVER AS SWATH OF
MID LVL CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN THE INTENSIFYING WARM
ADVCTN REGIME ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH RIDGING BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KILN 071156
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES VFR AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH HAS
SLOWLY STARTED TO BREAKDOWN THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
STILL FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF GUSTS IN TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS IS WHEN
THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO COLUMBUS MONDAY MORNING. ALL
PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
COLUMBUS DOES SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END AFTER THE FIRST ROUND MOVES EAST MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND WEAK FRONT. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT RAIN WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES



000
FXUS61 KILN 071156
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES VFR AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH HAS
SLOWLY STARTED TO BREAKDOWN THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
STILL FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF GUSTS IN TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS IS WHEN
THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO COLUMBUS MONDAY MORNING. ALL
PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
COLUMBUS DOES SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END AFTER THE FIRST ROUND MOVES EAST MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND WEAK FRONT. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT RAIN WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KCLE 071143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 071143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST TO MVFR AND THEN IFR POSSIBLY LIFR
BRIEFLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP
YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE DRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM PIT ON WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WITH
CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR DURING THAT PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS...WILL LIGHTEN AND SHIFT
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
CL

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM PIT ON WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WITH
CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR DURING THAT PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS...WILL LIGHTEN AND SHIFT
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
CL

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 070914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY



000
FXUS61 KCLE 070914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KCLE 070914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ANTICIPATED. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LOWS TONIGHT
HOVERING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SINCE THE MAIN ENERGY IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE BEST JET ENERGY
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE WEAKER
LIFT MAY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLDEST AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
TO THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 5 DAYS.  MAJOR RIDGING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HELPING TO DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. ONE CHANGE
WITH THIS MODEL RUN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO TAKE A DEEP PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN COLD ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD POOL OF AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD POOL WILL MOVE
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

BIG TALK THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT POSSIBLY ONLY TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME STRATUS 4K-6K WILL SKIM THE ERIE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD
OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT...WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY




000
FXUS61 KILN 070857
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
357 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OFF THE THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
TERMINALS FALL IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. 850 MB TO 700
MB OR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME
TERMINALS COULD BE GUSTY. IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME THOUGH
WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR AS MUCH WIND MIXING DOWN SO FOR NOW HAVE
JUST LEFT GUSTS IN FOR THE NORMAL GUST PRONE TAF SITES.

MONDAY MORNING AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. TIMING ON THE ARW/NMM AND NCEP WRF ALL INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST AROUND 3 Z MONDAY
MORNING. WHAT IS NOT IN AGREEMENT IS THE COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCSH. WILL GO AHEAD AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 0Z MODELS
RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON PREVAILING PRECIP OR
NOT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KILN 070857
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
357 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OFF THE THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
TERMINALS FALL IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. 850 MB TO 700
MB OR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME
TERMINALS COULD BE GUSTY. IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME THOUGH
WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR AS MUCH WIND MIXING DOWN SO FOR NOW HAVE
JUST LEFT GUSTS IN FOR THE NORMAL GUST PRONE TAF SITES.

MONDAY MORNING AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. TIMING ON THE ARW/NMM AND NCEP WRF ALL INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST AROUND 3 Z MONDAY
MORNING. WHAT IS NOT IN AGREEMENT IS THE COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCSH. WILL GO AHEAD AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 0Z MODELS
RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON PREVAILING PRECIP OR
NOT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES



000
FXUS61 KILN 070857
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
357 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OFF THE THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
TERMINALS FALL IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. 850 MB TO 700
MB OR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME
TERMINALS COULD BE GUSTY. IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME THOUGH
WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR AS MUCH WIND MIXING DOWN SO FOR NOW HAVE
JUST LEFT GUSTS IN FOR THE NORMAL GUST PRONE TAF SITES.

MONDAY MORNING AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. TIMING ON THE ARW/NMM AND NCEP WRF ALL INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST AROUND 3 Z MONDAY
MORNING. WHAT IS NOT IN AGREEMENT IS THE COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCSH. WILL GO AHEAD AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 0Z MODELS
RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON PREVAILING PRECIP OR
NOT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKC TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLE.
CL

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
PASSING SYSTEM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...MEANING STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOME
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKC TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLE.
CL

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
PASSING SYSTEM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...MEANING STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOME
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KRLX 070846
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS...RANGING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS GOOD
CHANCES FOR PCPN...OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND PARTS OF WV SUNDAY NIGHT.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME
THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE
FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A
2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS
HOUR TIME FRAME.

KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT S TODAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
OR WORST ALONG THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 02/07/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 070827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS...RANGING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS GOOD
CHANCES FOR PCPN...OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND PARTS OF WV SUNDAY NIGHT.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONCERN FOR TYPE OF PRECIP WITH FROPA. HAVE CONTINUED TO RELY ON
THE NAM TO CAPTURE THE BL CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LIQUID TO
MIX PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS
PERHAPS RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK
THE HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT
CROSSES ON MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT
THIS POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY
ASIDE FROM A 1 TO 3 INCH COATINGS ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE TRUE CAA ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITH THE UPPER TROF. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AIDED BY APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED OVER NE KY/S WV/SW VA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
MONDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OVER SE OH AND N WV
LOWLANDS. DECENT THERMAL PACKING ALOFT WILL ACT TO EFFICIENTLY
BRING DOWN WHAT FLOW THERE IS SO HAVE SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY
ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY SUBTLE SPOKES OF
ENERGY WITH MINIMAL LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES AN AUTO
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SOME ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE MORE OF THE HALF INCH TO INCH VARIETY WITH 1 TO 3 OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO PASS THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND
MAY JUST END UP STEADY STATE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...MAYBE
A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...WE STILL ENVISION A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL
ADD UP TO A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 4
TO 8 OVER THE MOUNTAINS THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF COURSE. WILL KEEP
CURRENT HWO WORDING INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT S TODAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
OR WORST ALONG THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 02/07/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 070827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS...RANGING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS GOOD
CHANCES FOR PCPN...OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND PARTS OF WV SUNDAY NIGHT.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONCERN FOR TYPE OF PRECIP WITH FROPA. HAVE CONTINUED TO RELY ON
THE NAM TO CAPTURE THE BL CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LIQUID TO
MIX PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS
PERHAPS RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK
THE HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT
CROSSES ON MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT
THIS POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY
ASIDE FROM A 1 TO 3 INCH COATINGS ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE TRUE CAA ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITH THE UPPER TROF. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AIDED BY APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED OVER NE KY/S WV/SW VA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
MONDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OVER SE OH AND N WV
LOWLANDS. DECENT THERMAL PACKING ALOFT WILL ACT TO EFFICIENTLY
BRING DOWN WHAT FLOW THERE IS SO HAVE SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY
ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY SUBTLE SPOKES OF
ENERGY WITH MINIMAL LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES AN AUTO
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SOME ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE MORE OF THE HALF INCH TO INCH VARIETY WITH 1 TO 3 OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO PASS THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND
MAY JUST END UP STEADY STATE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...MAYBE
A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...WE STILL ENVISION A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL
ADD UP TO A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 4
TO 8 OVER THE MOUNTAINS THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF COURSE. WILL KEEP
CURRENT HWO WORDING INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT S TODAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
OR WORST ALONG THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 02/07/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...ARJ




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