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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OHIO TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. THE GUSTS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 10000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE STARTUP OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OHIO TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. THE GUSTS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 10000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE STARTUP OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OHIO TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. THE GUSTS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 10000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE STARTUP OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






000
FXUS61 KCLE 281144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OHIO TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. THE GUSTS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 10000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE STARTUP OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KILN 281130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH A MID DECK MOVING IN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 281130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH A MID DECK MOVING IN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 281130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH A MID DECK MOVING IN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 281130
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH A MID DECK MOVING IN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 281111
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN









000
FXUS61 KCLE 281111
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRLX 281017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
506 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 281017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
506 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 280948
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
18   19 EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
12   13   14 CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H
H    H    M    H    H    H    H EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 280948
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
18   19 EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
12   13   14 CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H
H    H    M    H    H    H    H EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280948
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
18   19 EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
12   13   14 CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H
H    H    M    H    H    H    H EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280948
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
18   19 EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
12   13   14 CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H
H    H    M    H    H    H    H EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H
H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280810
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280810
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280810
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280810
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 280704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 280704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 280704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280620 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280620 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KILN 280530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 280530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 280256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT CMH/LCK FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN TURN SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CI
CIGS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT CMH/LCK FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN TURN SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CI
CIGS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT CMH/LCK FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN TURN SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CI
CIGS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT CMH/LCK FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN TURN SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CI
CIGS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS AN AREA OF SC THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO
PUSHES INTO SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS. ADD ON A STILL FRESH SNOW PACK...SO DROPPED LOWS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR TONIGHT TO AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL
BE BELOW ZERO. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT CMH/LCK FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN TURN SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CI
CIGS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KCLE 280253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLURRIES SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
CONTINUE TO BREAK. WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. STILL EXPECT A FEW AREAS TO GET SUBZERO.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS
WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET
CLOSE TO -10F FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 280232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS HAVE ACTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT
IT HAS BECOME QUITE CHILLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SO
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REACH NEAR EXPECTED VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 01/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 280001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS WILL BE
BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET CLOSE TO -10F
FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJ







000
FXUS61 KCLE 280001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS WILL BE
BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET CLOSE TO -10F
FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE EAST. EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE IN THE EAST AS WELL. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHERN COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJ






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 272342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH






000
FXUS61 KRLX 272342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH





000
FXUS61 KILN 272341
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WISCONSIN TO OHIO
TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE FA WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. ONCE THE
HIGH CENTER MOVES CLOSER LATER TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE
WHILE WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN A CLEARING TREND. IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW COVER. WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA AND LITTLE SNOW
IN MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...EXPECT LOWS TO VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH...UP TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT CMH/LCK FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN TURN SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CI
CIGS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 272118
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WISCONSIN TO OHIO
TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE FA WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. ONCE THE
HIGH CENTER MOVES CLOSER LATER TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE
WHILE WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN A CLEARING TREND. IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW COVER. WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA AND LITTLE SNOW
IN MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...EXPECT LOWS TO VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH...UP TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR
A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
OHIO.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KILN 272118
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WISCONSIN TO OHIO
TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE FA WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. ONCE THE
HIGH CENTER MOVES CLOSER LATER TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE
WHILE WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN A CLEARING TREND. IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW COVER. WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA AND LITTLE SNOW
IN MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...EXPECT LOWS TO VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH...UP TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR
A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
OHIO.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272100
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272100
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCLE 272049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS WILL BE
BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET CLOSE TO -10F
FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271959
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT BKW
EVENTUALLY. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR...AND EVEN
VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO
RAIN. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271959
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT BKW
EVENTUALLY. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR...AND EVEN
VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO
RAIN. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KCLE 271855
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO DECREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NE OH
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE FLOW IS TRYING TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THE
THREAT OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF CLE WILL BE DECREASING
ADJUSTED THE FORECASTS/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ELSEWHERE FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS A LITTLE BASED
ON NOON TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH HIGHER.
THE TOL TO FDY AREAS ARE HAVING A LITTLE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 271759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE.
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES
IN THE EAST.

AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR
A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
OHIO.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
HPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
HPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED
WITH A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER
WAA ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT BKW
EVENTUALLY. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR...AND EVEN
VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO
RAIN. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED
WITH A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER
WAA ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT BKW
EVENTUALLY. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR...AND EVEN
VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO
RAIN. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KCLE 271733
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE FLOW IS TRYING TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THE
THREAT OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF CLE WILL BE DECREASING
ADJUSTED THE FORECASTS/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ELSEWHERE FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS A LITTLE BASED
ON NOON TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH HIGHER.
THE TOL TO FDY AREAS ARE HAVING A LITTLE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271733
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE FLOW IS TRYING TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THE
THREAT OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF CLE WILL BE DECREASING
ADJUSTED THE FORECASTS/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ELSEWHERE FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS A LITTLE BASED
ON NOON TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH HIGHER.
THE TOL TO FDY AREAS ARE HAVING A LITTLE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271733
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE FLOW IS TRYING TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THE
THREAT OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF CLE WILL BE DECREASING
ADJUSTED THE FORECASTS/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ELSEWHERE FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS A LITTLE BASED
ON NOON TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH HIGHER.
THE TOL TO FDY AREAS ARE HAVING A LITTLE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271733
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE FLOW IS TRYING TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THE
THREAT OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF CLE WILL BE DECREASING
ADJUSTED THE FORECASTS/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ELSEWHERE FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS A LITTLE BASED
ON NOON TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH HIGHER.
THE TOL TO FDY AREAS ARE HAVING A LITTLE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AN INCH OR LESS. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY TODAY...EXCEPT THE TOLEDO TO FINDLAY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AN INCH OR LESS. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY TODAY...EXCEPT THE TOLEDO TO FINDLAY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KILN 271605
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE.
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES
IN THE EAST.

AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271605
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE.
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES
IN THE EAST.

AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271605
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE.
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES
IN THE EAST.

AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271605
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE.
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES
IN THE EAST.

AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KRLX 271515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1015 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...ADDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS FROM HTS TO CRW
TO EKN. THIS IS GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1015 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...ADDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS FROM HTS TO CRW
TO EKN. THIS IS GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY








000
FXUS61 KCLE 271440
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
940 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AN INCH OR LESS. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY TODAY...EXCEPT THE TOLEDO TO FINDLAY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TODAY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA WELL INTO TODAY. ANY MORNING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15 TO 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY PUSH IN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TO FLUSH OUT THE STRATOCU.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE END OF THE NIGHT PATCHY FOG.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271440
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
940 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AN INCH OR LESS. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY TODAY...EXCEPT THE TOLEDO TO FINDLAY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TODAY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA WELL INTO TODAY. ANY MORNING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15 TO 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY PUSH IN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TO FLUSH OUT THE STRATOCU.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE END OF THE NIGHT PATCHY FOG.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MRNG UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEA AS
LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PERSISTS. THAT ZONE IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT EWD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS NEWD LTR TDA.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND ARND
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MRNG UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEA AS
LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PERSISTS. THAT ZONE IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT EWD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS NEWD LTR TDA.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND ARND
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271245
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST DAWN UPDATED FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ALNG THE ERN PERIMETER OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA WHERE PERSISTENT
DEFORMATION BAND HAS DRIFTED SUFFICIENTLY WWD TO ADD SOME
ACCUMULATION...ALBEIT A QUICK INCH TO THE HIGHER RIDGES AND AREAS
ARND DUBOIS.

PREVIOUS...

SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK
OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KILN 271144
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271144
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271144
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271144
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KCLE 271141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...CHANGED "CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS" TO
"SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS" IN THE AREAS WHERE THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

"ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS STALLED...EVEN RETROGRADING A BIT...WHILE
THE EAST COAST STORM DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE PRETTY MUCH
ALL DAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION TO THE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS AND LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THERE SHOULD BE NO SNOW FROM THE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OUT WEST BUT FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER
ANYTIME TODAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...MOSTLY JUST DUSTINGS...BUT SOME AREAS AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE... MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TODAY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA WELL INTO TODAY. ANY MORNING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15 TO 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY PUSH IN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TO FLUSH OUT THE STRATOCU.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE END OF THE NIGHT PATCHY FOG.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 271100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
600 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS STALLED...EVEN RETROGRADING A BIT...WHILE THE
EAST COAST STORM DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE PRETTY MUCH ALL
DAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
TO THE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. A BATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SNOW FROM THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OUT WEST BUT
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER ANYTIME TODAY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...MOSTLY JUST
DUSTINGS...BUT SOME AREAS AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE... MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TODAY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA WELL INTO TODAY. ANY MORNING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15 TO 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY PUSH IN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TO FLUSH OUT THE STRATOCU.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE END OF THE NIGHT PATCHY FOG.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS










000
FXUS61 KCLE 271100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
600 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS STALLED...EVEN RETROGRADING A BIT...WHILE THE
EAST COAST STORM DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE PRETTY MUCH ALL
DAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
TO THE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. A BATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SNOW FROM THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OUT WEST BUT
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER ANYTIME TODAY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...MOSTLY JUST
DUSTINGS...BUT SOME AREAS AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE... MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TODAY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA WELL INTO TODAY. ANY MORNING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15 TO 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY PUSH IN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TO FLUSH OUT THE STRATOCU.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE END OF THE NIGHT PATCHY FOG.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS











000
FXUS61 KRLX 271011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
507 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 271011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
507 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KILN 271009
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND COLUMBUS TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
EAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW
CLOUDS. A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IN
COLUMBUS. LESS SO AT KDAY AND KILN. AT THIS POINT THINK CINCINNATI
WILL BE VFR AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO ANY MVFR
CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...






000
FXUS61 KILN 271009
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND COLUMBUS TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
EAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW
CLOUDS. A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IN
COLUMBUS. LESS SO AT KDAY AND KILN. AT THIS POINT THINK CINCINNATI
WILL BE VFR AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO ANY MVFR
CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT
RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH
A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA
ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV
LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN
EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPKE WELL INTO
THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6
INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHERS WILL BE REALIZED EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE
AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 270844
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS STALLED...EVEN RETROGRADING A BIT...WHILE THE
EAST COAST STORM DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE PRETTY MUCH ALL
DAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
TO THE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. A BATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SNOW FROM THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OUT WEST BUT
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER ANYTIME TODAY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...MOSTLY JUST
DUSTINGS...BUT SOME AREAS AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE... MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST TO NW PA
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR TO COME AND GO WITH CEILINGS
RIGHT AROUND 1K FEET. WHILE CIGS ARE VFR FOR NW OHIO...VSBYS MAY
DIP INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS NOT
LOOKING AS LIKELY TO GET THE LOWER CEILINGS BACK INTO NW OHIO.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE/CAK/YNG WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE.
ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES EAST TO WEST
FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BEFORE DISSIPATING. IFR
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270844
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS STALLED...EVEN RETROGRADING A BIT...WHILE THE
EAST COAST STORM DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE PRETTY MUCH ALL
DAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
TO THE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. A BATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SNOW FROM THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OUT WEST BUT
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER ANYTIME TODAY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...MOSTLY JUST
DUSTINGS...BUT SOME AREAS AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE... MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST TO NW PA
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR TO COME AND GO WITH CEILINGS
RIGHT AROUND 1K FEET. WHILE CIGS ARE VFR FOR NW OHIO...VSBYS MAY
DIP INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS NOT
LOOKING AS LIKELY TO GET THE LOWER CEILINGS BACK INTO NW OHIO.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE/CAK/YNG WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE.
ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES EAST TO WEST
FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BEFORE DISSIPATING. IFR
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY.

WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA OF SNOW LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED
NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVER NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED
FOR THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA OF SNOW LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED
NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVER NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED
FOR THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KILN 270556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND COLUMBUS TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
EAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW
CLOUDS. A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IN
COLUMBUS. LESS SO AT KDAY AND KILN. AT THIS POINT THINK CINCINNATI
WILL BE VFR AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO ANY MVFR
CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND COLUMBUS TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
EAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW
CLOUDS. A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IN
COLUMBUS. LESS SO AT KDAY AND KILN. AT THIS POINT THINK CINCINNATI
WILL BE VFR AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO ANY MVFR
CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND COLUMBUS TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
EAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW
CLOUDS. A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IN
COLUMBUS. LESS SO AT KDAY AND KILN. AT THIS POINT THINK CINCINNATI
WILL BE VFR AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO ANY MVFR
CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND COLUMBUS TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
EAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW
CLOUDS. A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IN
COLUMBUS. LESS SO AT KDAY AND KILN. AT THIS POINT THINK CINCINNATI
WILL BE VFR AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO ANY MVFR
CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KRLX 270540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1217 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST
WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV
WHILE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA INTO CRW
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A
STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER
TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 01/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KCLE 270444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS AT KMNN ARE DROPPING FASTER THAN WE CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO CREEP SLOWLY
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING NW OH FROM THE NW.
EXPECT THE CLEAR AREAS TO CLOUD BACK OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FURTHER. READINGS AT KMNN WILL
LIKELY REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. MAINLY JUST FLURRIES LEFT
IN NE OH AND NW PA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SLIGHT MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THEY DO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST TO NW PA
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR TO COME AND GO WITH CEILINGS
RIGHT AROUND 1K FEET. WHILE CIGS ARE VFR FOR NW OHIO...VSBYS MAY
DIP INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS NOT
LOOKING AS LIKELY TO GET THE LOWER CEILINGS BACK INTO NW OHIO.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE/CAK/YNG WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE.
ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES EAST TO WEST
FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BEFORE DISSIPATING. IFR
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS AT KMNN ARE DROPPING FASTER THAN WE CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO CREEP SLOWLY
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING NW OH FROM THE NW.
EXPECT THE CLEAR AREAS TO CLOUD BACK OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FURTHER. READINGS AT KMNN WILL
LIKELY REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. MAINLY JUST FLURRIES LEFT
IN NE OH AND NW PA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SLIGHT MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THEY DO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST TO NW PA
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR TO COME AND GO WITH CEILINGS
RIGHT AROUND 1K FEET. WHILE CIGS ARE VFR FOR NW OHIO...VSBYS MAY
DIP INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS NOT
LOOKING AS LIKELY TO GET THE LOWER CEILINGS BACK INTO NW OHIO.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE/CAK/YNG WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE.
ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES EAST TO WEST
FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BEFORE DISSIPATING. IFR
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KILN 270259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KCLE 270225
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS AT KMNN ARE DROPPING FASTER THAN WE CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO CREEP SLOWLY
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING NW OH FROM THE NW.
EXPECT THE CLEAR AREAS TO CLOUD BACK OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FURTHER. READINGS AT KMNN WILL
LIKELY REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. MAINLY JUST FLURRIES LEFT
IN NE OH AND NW PA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SLIGHT MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THEY DO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HRS...AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
EXACT ARRIVAL IS UNCERTAIN. SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. MFD/CAK/ERI ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLURRIES. ONLY
TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KCLE 270225
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS AT KMNN ARE DROPPING FASTER THAN WE CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO CREEP SLOWLY
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING NW OH FROM THE NW.
EXPECT THE CLEAR AREAS TO CLOUD BACK OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FURTHER. READINGS AT KMNN WILL
LIKELY REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. MAINLY JUST FLURRIES LEFT
IN NE OH AND NW PA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SLIGHT MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THEY DO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HRS...AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
EXACT ARRIVAL IS UNCERTAIN. SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. MFD/CAK/ERI ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLURRIES. ONLY
TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE START TO EDGE THE 850-600 MB
DEFORMATION FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SEEMS TO ALREADY BE MANIFEST IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURES. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS TO RAPIDLY BE BRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK FROM WHAT WE AR SEEING AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER
THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE EROSION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE NON-UPSLOPE
AREAS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED FOR ALL BUT
THE EASTERN FRONTIER OF THE CWA. THIS INCLUDES THE RIDGES AS WELL
AS FOREST...JEFFERSON...AND INDIANA COUNTY...WHICH ALL REMAIN ON
THE CUSP OF THE INTERFACE WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT THAT STILL
REMAINS RESIDENT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONALLY...AS
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH MAXIMIZES
OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATION...EVEN AS THE
SATURATED LAYER IS EVISCERATED.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BACK EDGE...CURRENTLY ON A
LINE FROM NEAR KFKL TO NEAR KPIT WILL TAKE 6-9 HRS TO CLEAR THE
ERN TERMINALS OF DUJ AND LBE. ALL TERMINALS WEST OF THE SNOW WILL
HOLD WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WSW TUES AND REMAIN LIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ009-016-
     023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE START TO EDGE THE 850-600 MB
DEFORMATION FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SEEMS TO ALREADY BE MANIFEST IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURES. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS TO RAPIDLY BE BRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK FROM WHAT WE AR SEEING AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER
THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE EROSION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE NON-UPSLOPE
AREAS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED FOR ALL BUT
THE EASTERN FRONTIER OF THE CWA. THIS INCLUDES THE RIDGES AS WELL
AS FOREST...JEFFERSON...AND INDIANA COUNTY...WHICH ALL REMAIN ON
THE CUSP OF THE INTERFACE WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT THAT STILL
REMAINS RESIDENT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONALLY...AS
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH MAXIMIZES
OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATION...EVEN AS THE
SATURATED LAYER IS EVISCERATED.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BACK EDGE...CURRENTLY ON A
LINE FROM NEAR KFKL TO NEAR KPIT WILL TAKE 6-9 HRS TO CLEAR THE
ERN TERMINALS OF DUJ AND LBE. ALL TERMINALS WEST OF THE SNOW WILL
HOLD WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WSW TUES AND REMAIN LIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ009-016-
     023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE START TO EDGE THE 850-600 MB
DEFORMATION FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SEEMS TO ALREADY BE MANIFEST IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURES. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS TO RAPIDLY BE BRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK FROM WHAT WE AR SEEING AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER
THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE EROSION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE NON-UPSLOPE
AREAS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED FOR ALL BUT
THE EASTERN FRONTIER OF THE CWA. THIS INCLUDES THE RIDGES AS WELL
AS FOREST...JEFFERSON...AND INDIANA COUNTY...WHICH ALL REMAIN ON
THE CUSP OF THE INTERFACE WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT THAT STILL
REMAINS RESIDENT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONALLY...AS
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH MAXIMIZES
OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATION...EVEN AS THE
SATURATED LAYER IS EVISCERATED.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BACK EDGE...CURRENTLY ON A
LINE FROM NEAR KFKL TO NEAR KPIT WILL TAKE 6-9 HRS TO CLEAR THE
ERN TERMINALS OF DUJ AND LBE. ALL TERMINALS WEST OF THE SNOW WILL
HOLD WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WSW TUES AND REMAIN LIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ009-016-
     023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE START TO EDGE THE 850-600 MB
DEFORMATION FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SEEMS TO ALREADY BE MANIFEST IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURES. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS TO RAPIDLY BE BRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK FROM WHAT WE AR SEEING AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER
THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE EROSION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE NON-UPSLOPE
AREAS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED FOR ALL BUT
THE EASTERN FRONTIER OF THE CWA. THIS INCLUDES THE RIDGES AS WELL
AS FOREST...JEFFERSON...AND INDIANA COUNTY...WHICH ALL REMAIN ON
THE CUSP OF THE INTERFACE WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT THAT STILL
REMAINS RESIDENT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONALLY...AS
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH MAXIMIZES
OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATION...EVEN AS THE
SATURATED LAYER IS EVISCERATED.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BACK EDGE...CURRENTLY ON A
LINE FROM NEAR KFKL TO NEAR KPIT WILL TAKE 6-9 HRS TO CLEAR THE
ERN TERMINALS OF DUJ AND LBE. ALL TERMINALS WEST OF THE SNOW WILL
HOLD WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WSW TUES AND REMAIN LIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ009-016-
     023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KRLX 270040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST
WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV
WHILE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA INTO CRW
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST
WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINS THE WESTERN SITES LIKE PKB...HTS...AND CRW WHILE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AS LONG AS LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS CKB...EKN AND BKW.

MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT LOW TO HIGHER LEVELS MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV NEARBY HTS AND CRW OVERNIGHT PERHAPS
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO MVFR OR VFR WHILE THE NORTHERN SITES AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS REMAINS MVFR/IFR.

TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER TONIGHT AS
850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE
SNOWFALL.

BY 15Z...THE NAM SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH PERHAPS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 270040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST
WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV
WHILE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA INTO CRW
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST
WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINS THE WESTERN SITES LIKE PKB...HTS...AND CRW WHILE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AS LONG AS LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS CKB...EKN AND BKW.

MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT LOW TO HIGHER LEVELS MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV NEARBY HTS AND CRW OVERNIGHT PERHAPS
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO MVFR OR VFR WHILE THE NORTHERN SITES AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS REMAINS MVFR/IFR.

TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER TONIGHT AS
850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE
SNOWFALL.

BY 15Z...THE NAM SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH PERHAPS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN
LATER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KILN 270021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KILN 270021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
701 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER 850-600 MB DEFORMATION
FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND
REALLY ONLY START TO EDGE IT SUBSTANTIALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO START IN EARNEST...AND BRING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES INTO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WEAKER SATURATION AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BEING TO TAKE A TOLL EVEN ON THIS ACTIVITY BY THAT
JUNCTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POPS TO BE ROLLED BACK BY THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY A BIT.

ALL THAT SAID...DUE TO THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION FIELD THIS EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM...ALL OTHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BACK EDGE...CURRENTLY ON A
LINE FROM NEAR KFKL TO NEAR KPIT WILL TAKE 6-9 HRS TO CLEAR THE
ERN TERMINALS OF DUJ AND LBE. ALL TERMINALS WEST OF THE SNOW WILL
HOLD WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WSW TUES AND REMAIN LIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ020-021-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 262342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
642 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS...THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HRS...AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
EXACT ARRIVAL IS UNCERTAIN. SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. MFD/CAK/ERI ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLURRIES. ONLY
TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB




000
FXUS61 KCLE 262342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
642 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS...THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HRS...AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
EXACT ARRIVAL IS UNCERTAIN. SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. MFD/CAK/ERI ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLURRIES. ONLY
TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB





000
FXUS61 KCLE 262322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS...THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS STALLED AS COASTAL LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EXTREME EAST OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 262322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS...THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS STALLED AS COASTAL LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EXTREME EAST OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER 850-600 MB DEFORMATION
FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND
REALLY ONLY START TO EDGE IT SUBSTANTIALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO START IN EARNEST...AND BRING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES INTO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WEAKER SATURATION AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BEING TO TAKE A TOLL EVEN ON THIS ACTIVITY BY THAT
JUNCTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POPS TO BE ROLLED BACK BY THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY A BIT.

ALL THAT SAID...DUE TO THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION FIELD THIS EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM...ALL OTHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ020-021-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER 850-600 MB DEFORMATION
FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND
REALLY ONLY START TO EDGE IT SUBSTANTIALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO START IN EARNEST...AND BRING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES INTO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WEAKER SATURATION AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BEING TO TAKE A TOLL EVEN ON THIS ACTIVITY BY THAT
JUNCTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POPS TO BE ROLLED BACK BY THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY A BIT.

ALL THAT SAID...DUE TO THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION FIELD THIS EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM...ALL OTHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ020-021-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER 850-600 MB DEFORMATION
FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND
REALLY ONLY START TO EDGE IT SUBSTANTIALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO START IN EARNEST...AND BRING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES INTO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WEAKER SATURATION AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BEING TO TAKE A TOLL EVEN ON THIS ACTIVITY BY THAT
JUNCTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POPS TO BE ROLLED BACK BY THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY A BIT.

ALL THAT SAID...DUE TO THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION FIELD THIS EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM...ALL OTHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ020-021-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER 850-600 MB DEFORMATION
FIELD OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND
REALLY ONLY START TO EDGE IT SUBSTANTIALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO START IN EARNEST...AND BRING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
DOWN TOWARD THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE EROSION OF RADAR COVERAGE...SO WHILE THE MECHANISM FOR SNOW
GENERATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM MORE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THE CHANGE IN REALITY IN
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT STARK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT QPF SHOULD
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OTHER THAN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
RIDGES...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES INTO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WEAKER SATURATION AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BEING TO TAKE A TOLL EVEN ON THIS ACTIVITY BY THAT
JUNCTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POPS TO BE ROLLED BACK BY THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY A BIT.

ALL THAT SAID...DUE TO THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION FIELD THIS EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM...ALL OTHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONE SIDE NOTE...DUE TO THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CLOUDY...MANY ROADS
WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME ICY THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO
PITSPSPBZ FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT TO DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BLDS. A COLD WEDNESDAY MRNG WL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVR NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT LOW TRACK ALNG I 76 SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT WARMTH OVR SRN
ZONES TO PRECLUDE AN ACCUMULATING ICE OR SNOW EVENT. PROGRESSION
SHOULD LIMIT ELSEWHERE.  MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ020-021-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KILN 262120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 262120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 262120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KILN 262120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






000
FXUS61 KCLE 262032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS STALLED AS COASTAL LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EXTREME EAST OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






000
FXUS61 KCLE 262032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS STALLED AS COASTAL LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EXTREME EAST OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 261901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261833
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY WITH A FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUED CAA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY DIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPAND COVERAGE INTO THE C
LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE A FEW INCHES CODED UP
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING INTO S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED
TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRATUS ACROSS WV FOR AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING ATOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WAA SHOULD SCATTER THIS OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF WAA AHEAD OF IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON DIURNAL TRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE A
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET ACROSS SE
OH AND N WV. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN
TUESDAY BEING RATHER COLD WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO
30 IN THE LOWLANDS. COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LOWLANDS/SINGLE
DIGITS HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE TEMPS RISING
OVERNIGHT AFTER A QUICK FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S WITH SOME MID 40S S ZONES AND UP INTO FAVORED
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W.  MODELS
ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU.  THIS THEN
SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI.

WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU.  HOWEVER...MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING
IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY.

COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  THE MODELS REMAIN
DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE
ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME
IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES.  THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A
VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY
ECMWF HIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH
GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261833
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY WITH A FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUED CAA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY DIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPAND COVERAGE INTO THE C
LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE A FEW INCHES CODED UP
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING INTO S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED
TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRATUS ACROSS WV FOR AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING ATOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WAA SHOULD SCATTER THIS OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF WAA AHEAD OF IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON DIURNAL TRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE A
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET ACROSS SE
OH AND N WV. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN
TUESDAY BEING RATHER COLD WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO
30 IN THE LOWLANDS. COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LOWLANDS/SINGLE
DIGITS HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE TEMPS RISING
OVERNIGHT AFTER A QUICK FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S WITH SOME MID 40S S ZONES AND UP INTO FAVORED
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W.  MODELS
ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU.  THIS THEN
SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI.

WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU.  HOWEVER...MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING
IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY.

COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  THE MODELS REMAIN
DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE
ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME
IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES.  THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A
VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY
ECMWF HIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH
GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KILN 261750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 261750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOW BAND HAS CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER INTO WEST VIRGINIA. REWORKING
THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND LARGELY USING THE
RAP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH 00Z. WILL BE WORKING ON SOME
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS AS WELL AS THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE
EVENT LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING COLD AIR GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME GOOD LIFT IN AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING BAND BEHIND THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY
COUNTY AS THAT AREA HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW AND SHOULD RECEIVE
THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING OVER
TURNING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE SHOULD
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS
SOME. THE COLDEST OF THIS AIR IS IN A LAYER THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO
NOT BE ABLE TO CAPTURE. WILL RELY ON THE MES NAM FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY WITH A FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUED CAA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY DIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPAND COVERAGE INTO THE C
LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE A FEW INCHES CODED UP
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING INTO S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED
TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRATUS ACROSS WV FOR AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING ATOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WAA SHOULD SCATTER THIS OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF WAA AHEAD OF IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON DIURNAL TRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE A
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET ACROSS SE
OH AND N WV. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN
TUESDAY BEING RATHER COLD WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO
30 IN THE LOWLANDS. COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LOWLANDS/SINGLE
DIGITS HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE TEMPS RISING
OVERNIGHT AFTER A QUICK FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S WITH SOME MID 40S S ZONES AND UP INTO FAVORED
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W.  MODELS
ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU.  THIS THEN
SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI.

WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU.  HOWEVER...MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING
IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY.

COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  THE MODELS REMAIN
DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE
ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME
IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES.  THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A
VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY
ECMWF HIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH
GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOW BAND HAS CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER INTO WEST VIRGINIA. REWORKING
THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND LARGELY USING THE
RAP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH 00Z. WILL BE WORKING ON SOME
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS AS WELL AS THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE
EVENT LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING COLD AIR GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME GOOD LIFT IN AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING BAND BEHIND THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY
COUNTY AS THAT AREA HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW AND SHOULD RECEIVE
THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING OVER
TURNING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE SHOULD
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS
SOME. THE COLDEST OF THIS AIR IS IN A LAYER THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO
NOT BE ABLE TO CAPTURE. WILL RELY ON THE MES NAM FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY WITH A FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUED CAA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY DIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPAND COVERAGE INTO THE C
LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE A FEW INCHES CODED UP
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING INTO S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED
TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRATUS ACROSS WV FOR AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING ATOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WAA SHOULD SCATTER THIS OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF WAA AHEAD OF IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON DIURNAL TRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE A
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET ACROSS SE
OH AND N WV. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN
TUESDAY BEING RATHER COLD WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO
30 IN THE LOWLANDS. COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LOWLANDS/SINGLE
DIGITS HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE TEMPS RISING
OVERNIGHT AFTER A QUICK FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S WITH SOME MID 40S S ZONES AND UP INTO FAVORED
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W.  MODELS
ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU.  THIS THEN
SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI.

WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU.  HOWEVER...MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING
IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY.

COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  THE MODELS REMAIN
DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE
ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME
IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES.  THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A
VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY
ECMWF HIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH
GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOW BAND HAS CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER INTO WEST VIRGINIA. REWORKING
THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND LARGELY USING THE
RAP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH 00Z. WILL BE WORKING ON SOME
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS AS WELL AS THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE
EVENT LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING COLD AIR GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME GOOD LIFT IN AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING BAND BEHIND THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY
COUNTY AS THAT AREA HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW AND SHOULD RECEIVE
THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING OVER
TURNING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE SHOULD
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS
SOME. THE COLDEST OF THIS AIR IS IN A LAYER THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO
NOT BE ABLE TO CAPTURE. WILL RELY ON THE MES NAM FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY WITH A FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUED CAA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY DIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPAND COVERAGE INTO THE C
LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE A FEW INCHES CODED UP
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING INTO S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED
TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRATUS ACROSS WV FOR AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING ATOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WAA SHOULD SCATTER THIS OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF WAA AHEAD OF IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON DIURNAL TRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE A
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET ACROSS SE
OH AND N WV. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN
TUESDAY BEING RATHER COLD WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO
30 IN THE LOWLANDS. COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LOWLANDS/SINGLE
DIGITS HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE TEMPS RISING
OVERNIGHT AFTER A QUICK FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S WITH SOME MID 40S S ZONES AND UP INTO FAVORED
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W.  MODELS
ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU.  THIS THEN
SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI.

WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU.  HOWEVER...MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING
IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY.

COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  THE MODELS REMAIN
DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE
ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME
IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES.  THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A
VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY
ECMWF HIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH
GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOW BAND HAS CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER INTO WEST VIRGINIA. REWORKING
THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND LARGELY USING THE
RAP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH 00Z. WILL BE WORKING ON SOME
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS AS WELL AS THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE
EVENT LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING COLD AIR GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME GOOD LIFT IN AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING BAND BEHIND THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY
COUNTY AS THAT AREA HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW AND SHOULD RECEIVE
THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING OVER
TURNING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE SHOULD
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS
SOME. THE COLDEST OF THIS AIR IS IN A LAYER THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO
NOT BE ABLE TO CAPTURE. WILL RELY ON THE MES NAM FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY WITH A FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUED CAA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY DIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPAND COVERAGE INTO THE C
LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE A FEW INCHES CODED UP
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING INTO S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED
TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRATUS ACROSS WV FOR AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING ATOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WAA SHOULD SCATTER THIS OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THURSDAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF WAA AHEAD OF IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON DIURNAL TRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE A
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET ACROSS SE
OH AND N WV. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN
TUESDAY BEING RATHER COLD WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO
30 IN THE LOWLANDS. COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LOWLANDS/SINGLE
DIGITS HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE TEMPS RISING
OVERNIGHT AFTER A QUICK FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S WITH SOME MID 40S S ZONES AND UP INTO FAVORED
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W.  MODELS
ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU.  THIS THEN
SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI.

WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD
ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU.  HOWEVER...MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING
IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY.

COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  THE MODELS REMAIN
DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE
ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME
IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES.  THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A
VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY
ECMWF HIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH
GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS
AS LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTS UNDR EWD SHIFTING
DEFORMATION ZONE. GIVEN TRENDS AND OVRNGT EXPECTATIONS...HAVE
ADDED PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES TO THE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD
THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS
AS LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTS UNDR EWD SHIFTING
DEFORMATION ZONE. GIVEN TRENDS AND OVRNGT EXPECTATIONS...HAVE
ADDED PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES TO THE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD
THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS
AS LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTS UNDR EWD SHIFTING
DEFORMATION ZONE. GIVEN TRENDS AND OVRNGT EXPECTATIONS...HAVE
ADDED PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES TO THE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD
THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS
AS LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTS UNDR EWD SHIFTING
DEFORMATION ZONE. GIVEN TRENDS AND OVRNGT EXPECTATIONS...HAVE
ADDED PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES TO THE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD
THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCLE 261727
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1227 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA
COAST...THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY
DEEPENING INTO A NOREASTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE INVERTED TROF OVER ERN OH AND WRN PA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AS
WAS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE FORECAST HIGHS
LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. PATCHY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINING CLOUDS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS. USED A COMBINATION
OF THE RAW MODEL SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS AND INTUITION TO TRY GUESS
THE BEST TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS ON THE BUBBLE FOR SNOW OR RAIN BUT
COL